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TULN

Tulane 31 at Tulsa 14

TLSA
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:06 · Alec Clark punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior−28.3Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:10: Javin Gordon run for 12 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +5.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:57: Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 72 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:45: Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Shazz Preston — TULN win probability +7.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:13: Javin Gordon run for 25 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +8.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:28: Javin Gordon run for 4 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +8.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 11 of 12TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 7:21TLSA 4th & 18 at TULN 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:06TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:04TLSA 4th & 13 at TLSA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:27TULN 4th & 7 at TLSA 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:38TULN 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:53TLSA 4th & 18 at TLSA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:31TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:54TLSA 4th & 4 at TULN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:12TULN 4th & 3 at TLSA 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.9
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:08TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:36TULN 4th & 17 at TULN 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:08TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:17TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:18TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:28TULN 4th & 7 at TLSA 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:28TULN 4th & 7 at TLSA 39, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:46TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:34TULN 4th & 15 at TULN 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:38TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:16TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:59TLSA 4th & 3 at TULN 4, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:59TLSA 4th & 3 at TULN 4, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:28TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:14TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:10TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:57TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:13TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:28TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2781% → 81%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.7%
Arnold Barnes III run for 5 yds to the TULN 30Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
18.9%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 29Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+24
19.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 24 yds to the TLSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
19.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 27 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
19.5%
Arnold Barnes III run for 3 yds to the TLSA 17Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+9
19.9%
Jamauri McClure run for 9 yds to the TLSA 8 Jamauri McClure fumbled, recovered by TULN Tre Shackelford for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
19.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 8 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0820% → 22%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
19.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
19.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
20.0%
Ajay Allen run for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+51
20.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 51 yds to the TULN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.6%
Ajay Allen run for no gain to the TULN 1Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.2%
Tim Hardiman run for 1 yd for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 1:4522% → 22%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
22.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TULN 46Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
22.2%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
22.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 7 yds to the TULN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
22.6%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
22.6%
(08:07) PENALTY TULSA False Start (Erb,Hunter) 5 yards from TULANE39 to TULANE44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 15
OPP 44
-3
22.4%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the TULN 47Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 18
OPP 47
0
22.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
22.2%
Angus Davies punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Omari Hayes at the TULN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0978% → 77%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
22.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 5 yds to the TULN 17Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+2
22.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 2 yds to the TULN 19Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
23.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Bryce BohanonSimilar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
23.5%
Alec Clark punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5323% → 23%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
23.3%
Baylor Hayes sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TLSA 23Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 20
OWN 23
0
23.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+7
23.2%
Baylor Hayes run for 7 yds to the TLSA 30 Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
23.1%
Angus Davies punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:2276% → 75%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
23.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 17 yds to the TULN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
23.5%
Javin Gordon run for 4 yds to the TULN 43Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-5
23.5%
Jake Retzlaff sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TULN 38Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+14
24.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 24 yds to the TLSA 38 for a 1ST down Tulane Penalty, Illegal Block (Anthony Brown-Stephens) to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
23.8%
Javin Gordon run for no gain to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
24.0%
Jake Retzlaff run for 3 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
24.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Justyn ReidSimilar
Q1 1:27
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
25.1%
Alec Clark punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5926% → 26%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
25.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 10
-1
26.1%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 9Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 6
OWN 9
0
25.8%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
25.6%
Angus Davies punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0575% → 79%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-StephensSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
25.4%
Zuberi Mobley run for 6 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+12
25.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
25.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Bryce BohanonSimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
25.4%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the TLSA 36Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+5
25.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 5 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+19
27.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 19 yds to the TLSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
21.0%
Javin Gordon run for 12 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0723% → 22%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
22.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 10 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
23.0%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Harvey Dyson for a loss of 7 yards to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 17
OWN 28
-1
22.8%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 27Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
22.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+13
22.1%
Angus Davies punt for 49 yds , Omari Hayes returns for 13 yds to the TULN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1578% → 78%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
22.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 6 yds to the TULN 43Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
21.8%
Javin Gordon run for 2 yds to the TULN 45Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
21.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-StephensSimilar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
22.4%
Alec Clark punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
5 plays · 93 yds · 2:1923% → 32%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
22.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for 6 yds to the TLSA 13Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+6
23.1%
Ajay Allen run for 6 yds to the TLSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
23.3%
Braylin Presley run for 8 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+1
23.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 1 yd to the TLSA 28Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+72
31.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 72 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1570% → 71%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
29.7%
Jake Retzlaff run for 8 yds to the TULN 26Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
29.0%
Arnold Barnes III run for 5 yds to the TULN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
29.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Arnold Barnes III for 4 yds to the TULN 35Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
29.5%
Arnold Barnes III run for 5 yds to the TULN 40 Arnold Barnes III fumbled, recovered by TULN Hudson BallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2336% → 37%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
35.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TULN 35Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-4
36.6%
Baylor Hayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the TULN 39 Baylor Hayes fumbled, recovered by TULN Dickson AguSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:3271% → 80%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Shazz PrestonSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
29.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 6 yds to the TULN 45Similar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
29.5%
(04:09) PENALTY TULANE False Start (Hollifield,Jack) 5 yards from TULANE45 to TULANE40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+29
31.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 29 yds to the TLSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
28.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Johnny PascuzziSimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
28.6%
Javin Gordon run for 6 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+25
20.4%
Javin Gordon run for 25 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:1524% → 25%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.7%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
22.7%
Baylor Hayes run for 17 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
24.5%
Ajay Allen run for 13 yds to the TULN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
25.7%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
25.3%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Chris Rodgers for a loss of 1 yard to the TULN 46Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+7
24.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 7 yds to the TULN 39Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+3
24.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Landen Lucas for 3 yds to the TULN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 0:3979% → 81%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
21.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 12 yds to the TULN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
20.5%
PENALTY TULSA Personal Foul (Drew,JD) 15 yards from TULANE48 to TULSA37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
19.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 20 yds to the TLSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
19.3%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Gordon,Javin rush left for 8 yards gain to the TULSA09, out of bounds at TULSA09 PENALTY TULANE Holding (Hurst,Shadre) 10 yards from TULSA17 to TULSA27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 20
OPP 27
0
19.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Shazz PrestonSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 20
OPP 27
+3
19.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 3 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+14
20.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Justyn Reid for 14 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
18.8%
Patrick Durkin 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
20.3%
B. Hayes takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4520% → 19%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
20.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 8 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
21.0%
(14:42) PENALTY TULSA False Start 5 yards from TULSA33 to TULSA28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
20.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
19.5%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Brody FoleySimilar
Q3 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+14
19.0%
Angus Davies punt for 52 yds , Omari Hayes returns for 14 yds to the TULN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2780% → 79%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
20.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Bryce BohanonSimilar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
20.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for 4 yds to the TULN 38Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-11
19.8%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Ty Cooper for a loss of 11 yards to the TULN 27Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
21.3%
Alec Clark punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2121% → 20%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
20.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
20.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 2
OWN 48
-1
21.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
20.1%
Baylor Hayes punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:3380% → 91%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
19.7%
Javin Gordon run for 6 yds to the TULN 37Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
19.4%
Javin Gordon run for 3 yds to the TULN 40Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
19.5%
Javin Gordon run for 2 yds to the TULN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
19.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
19.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for no gain to the TULN 42Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+12
19.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Omari Hayes for 12 yds to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
19.1%
Javin Gordon run for 5 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+11
19.0%
Arnold Barnes III run for 11 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
18.3%
Arnold Barnes III run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
18.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Justyn ReidSimilar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+10
18.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 10 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
17.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 12 yds to the TLSA 8 for a 1ST down Tulsa Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.7%
Javin Gordon run for 4 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0511% → 10%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.0%
Ajay Allen run for 6 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-11
11.5%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Makai Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the TLSA 20Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
10.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+2
10.4%
Baylor Hayes punt for 51 yds , Omari Hayes returns for 2 yds to the TULN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5491% → 91%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Bryce BohanonSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
9.0%
Javin Gordon run for no gain to the TULN 31Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
9.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Anthony Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
9.3%
Alec Clark punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24INT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:2011% → 10%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
10.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
10.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+9
10.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 9 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
10.7%
Ajay Allen run for 10 yds to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
11.0%
Ajay Allen run for 6 yds to the TULN 48Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
10.6%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Grayson TempestSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
10.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 4 yds to the TULN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
10.3%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-15
9.9%
Baylor Hayes pass intercepted Jahiem Johnson return for 15 yds to the TULN 47Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-15
9.9%
Baylor Hayes pass intercepted Jahiem Johnson return for 15 yds to the TULN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:1294% → 94%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
6.0%
Javin Gordon run for 2 yds to the TULN 49Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+9
5.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 9 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
5.5%
Javin Gordon run for 3 yds to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
5.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Justyn ReidSimilar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
5.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass incomplete to Justyn ReidSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
6.1%
Alec Clark punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 8Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
6.1%
Alec Clark punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:357% → 5%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
6.7%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 20Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+4
5.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 4 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-3
5.7%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Harvey Dyson for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 21Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
4.9%
Angus Davies punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 3:0395% → 95%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-36
5.1%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Sullivan,Brendan pass complete deep left to Brown-Stephens,Anthony caught at TULSA42, for 36 yards to the TULSA42, End Of Play PENALTY TULANE Pass Interference (Brown-Stephens,Anthony) 11 yard from TULANE22 to TULANE11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:31
1ST & 21
OWN 11
-5
5.1%
PENALTY TULANE False Start (Baker,Elijah) 5 yards from TULANE11 to TULANE06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 26
OWN 6
+15
5.1%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnes III,Arnold rush right for 3 yards loss to the TULANE03 (Johnson,Nahki) PENALTY TULSA Face Mask (Williams,Zach) 15 yards from TULANE06 to TULANE21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
4.9%
Arnold Barnes III run for 11 yds to the TULN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
4.9%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Sullivan,Brendan rush right for 1 yard gain to the TULANE33 (Burnett,J'Dan) PENALTY TULANE Holding (Hollifield,Jack) 10 yards from TULANE32 to TULANE22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+4
4.8%
Javin Gordon run for 4 yds to the TULN 26Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+10
4.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Shazz Preston for 10 yds to the TULN 36Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-9
4.6%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Byron Turner Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the TULN 27Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+3
4.6%
Alec Clark punt for 48 yds , Zion Booker returns for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:475% → 4%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
4.7%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-2
4.6%
Ajay Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 28Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
4.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
4.4%
Angus Davies punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Omari Hayes at the TULN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:1596% → 97%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
4.1%
Jamauri McClure run for 8 yds to the TULN 34Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-10
3.8%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun McClure,Jamauri rush middle for 24 yards gain to the TULSA42 (Green,Elijah) PENALTY TULANE Holding (Baker,Elijah) 10 yards from TULANE34 to TULANE24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-10
3.5%
(05:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Sullivan,Brendan rush right for 6 yards gain to the TULANE30, out of bounds at TULANE30 PENALTY TULANE Holding (Cannon,Landry) 10 yards from TULANE24 to TULANE14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 22
OWN 14
+8
3.6%
Arnold Barnes III run for 8 yds to the TULN 22Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+5
3.2%
Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the TULN 27Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
3.0%
Alec Clark punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 30DOWNS
17 plays · 83 yds · 3:073% → 3%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
2.7%
Baylor Hayes run for 7 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+33
2.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Grayson Tempest for 33 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.0%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
3.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 14 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
3.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jewlyen Roberts for 9 yds to the TULN 26Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
3.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 1 yd to the TULN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-6
3.5%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Santana Hopper for a loss of 6 yards to the TULN 31Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+15
3.2%
(02:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete deep left to Williams,Zach thrown to TULANE00 PENALTY TULANE Pass Interference (Lewis,Jayden) 15 yards from TULANE31 to TULANE16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
3.4%
Baylor Hayes run for 2 yds to the TULN 14Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
3.0%
(01:57) Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete short right to Johnson II,Calvin thrown to TULANE05 PENALTY TULANE Pass Interference (Rodgers,Chris) 3 yards from TULANE14 to TULANE11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
2.9%
(01:55) Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete short right to Richardson,Dominic thrown to TULANE00 broken up by Johnson,Jahiem PENALTY TULSA Holding (Hornsby,Codie) 10 yards from TULANE11 to TULANE21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 20
OPP 21
0
2.8%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Brody FoleySimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+17
2.7%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zach Williams for 17 yds to the TULN 4Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
2.9%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Brody FoleySimilar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+2
2.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 2 yds to the TULN 6Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+2
2.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 2 yds to the TULN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:5198% → 98%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
1.7%
Brendan Sullivan run for 4 yds to the TULN 10Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-1
1.7%
B. Sullivan takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:28
Javin Gordon run for 4 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q2 6:57
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 72 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 2:13
Javin Gordon run for 25 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com