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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:05 · Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: Blake Horvath run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:33: Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:05: Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +4.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:24: Enock Gota 44 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +7.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:24: PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Sean) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20. NO PLAY. — NAVY win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 7:04NAVY 4th & 2 at RICE 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.8%48% to convertField goal80.6%−0.294% to makePunt79.8%−1.0average punt
- Q1 5:33RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.5%average punt
- Q1 3:25NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.7%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.1%average punt
- Q1 1:24RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.0%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.1%average punt
- Q2 12:07RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 41, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snapGo for it14.2%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.9%average punt
- Q2 7:22NAVY 4th & 12 at RICE 38, up 14Close callPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.9%−0.224% to convertField goal86.1%38% to makePuntTheir call86.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:53RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q2 1:12NAVY 4th & 1 at RICE 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.4%71% to convertField goal87.7%−0.862% to makePunt85.2%−3.3average punt
- Q2 0:12RICE 4th & 6 at NAVY 40, down 14Close callWent for it · 12.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.8%−0.440% to convertField goal13.2%34% to makePunt12.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:45RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q3 7:17RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.1%−1.4average punt
- Q3 3:35RICE 4th & 1 at NAVY 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.3%71% to convertField goal8.5%−1.856% to makePunt7.4%−3.0average punt
- Q3 0:22RICE 4th & 11 at NAVY 17, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snapGo for it7.2%−1.124% to convertField goalTheir call8.4%80% to makePunt3.2%−5.2average punt
- Q4 7:05RICE 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.9%44% to convertField goal2.9%−0.993% to makePunt0.9%−3.0average punt
- Q4 3:07NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 45, up 11Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:06RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.7%−1.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:04NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:33NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:05RICE Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.5%97% to makeGo for two6.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNAVYDrive 1TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:4885% → 85%
Q1 12:53
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+10
85.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 10 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
85.0%
(12:40) Robinson,Charles rush right for 9 yards gain to the Rice22 (Stevenson,Peyton; Clark-Jolivet,Chris) PENALTY Navy Holding (Acevedo,Jaylin) 10 yards from Rice31 to Rice41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+15
84.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 15 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2515% → 15%
Q1 5:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0585% → 84%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.6%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Chatman,Brandon) 5 yards from Navy25 to Navy20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5416% → 16%
Q1 1:24
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
84.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD3 plays · 80 yds · 1:1384% → 88%
RICEDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:3114% → 13%
NAVYDrive 7PUNT13 plays · 48 yds · 4:3888% → 88%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
88.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 26 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
88.7%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Heater,Connor) 5 yards from Rice46 to Navy49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+15
88.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 15 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
88.8%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Crowley,Sean) 5 yards from Rice36 to Rice41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
88.3%
Jacob Carlson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2212% → 12%
Q2 5:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
88.4%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 43 yds , Brandon Chatman returns for 5 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9DOWNS9 plays · 40 yds · 4:3489% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 0:5511% → 12%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
88.5%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Luke Pirris for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11MISSED FG3 plays · 29 yds · 0:0490% → 91%
RICEDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0311% → 10%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
89.3%
(13:59) PENALTY Rice False Start (Falk,James) 5 yards from Rice26 to Rice21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+1
89.7%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 1 yd to the RICE 18Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+11
89.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the RICE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13INT6 plays · 38 yds · 3:0491% → 92%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
90.5%
(11:44) Shotgun Chatman,Brandon rush left for 9 yards gain to the Navy29 (Porter,Omari), out of bounds PENALTY Navy Holding (Purvis,Ben) 10 yards from Navy20 to Navy10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+29
90.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 29 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+14
91.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 14 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
91.8%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Plae Wyatt return for 7 yds to the RICE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14FG21 plays · 48 yds · 8:0411% → 10%
NAVYDrive 15TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2791% → 98%
RICEDrive 16TD8 plays · 61 yds · 3:103% → 8%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
97.0%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 36 yds to the NAVY 5 for a 1ST down Navy Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.3%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:5194% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18FG16 plays · 54 yds · 2:353% → 5%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.0%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 6 yds to the RICE 26Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-4
96.7%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Griffen Willis for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 22Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
97.2%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Ryan Guillo for 9 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the RICE 35Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+20
97.5%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 20 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
96.4%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Long,John) 5 yards from Navy40 to Navy45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+2
97.1%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 2 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+15
97.1%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Chase pass incomplete deep left to Pierre,Semaj thrown to Navy02 PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Hamilton,Phillip) 15 yards from Navy41 to Navy26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
94.6%
PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Sean) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19END OF GAME2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:24
Enock Gota 44 yd FG GOOD
-7.6
TD · Q4 10:33
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+5.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:24
PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Sean) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20. NO PLAY.
+5.1