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RICE

Rice 13 at Navy 21

NAVY
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:12 · Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Pregame prior+19.6Home team on offense+10.7Score differential+4.3Garbage-time factor+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Time remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Blake Horvath run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:33: Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:05: Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +4.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:24: Enock Gota 44 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +7.6 pts (now 11%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:24: PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Sean) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20. NO PLAY. — NAVY win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RICE made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 7:04NAVY 4th & 2 at RICE 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:33RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:24RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:07RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:22NAVY 4th & 12 at RICE 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:53RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12NAVY 4th & 1 at RICE 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.7%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:12RICE 4th & 6 at NAVY 40, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:17RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:35RICE 4th & 1 at NAVY 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−1.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:22RICE 4th & 11 at NAVY 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−5.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:05RICE 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:07NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:06RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RICE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:04NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:33NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:05RICE Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:4885% → 85%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.4%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
85.2%
Brandon Chatman run for 22 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
85.1%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
85.0%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+10
85.0%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 10 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
85.0%
(12:40) Robinson,Charles rush right for 9 yards gain to the Rice22 (Stevenson,Peyton; Clark-Jolivet,Chris) PENALTY Navy Holding (Acevedo,Jaylin) 10 yards from Rice31 to Rice41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+5
84.8%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+2
84.6%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+15
84.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 15 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
84.5%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the RICE 17Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+12
84.4%
Brandon Chatman run for 12 yds to the RICE 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the RICE 3Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
84.0%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 4Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
83.6%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the RICE 2Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.8%
Luke Hutchison run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2515% → 15%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.7%
Quinton Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 20Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
84.7%
Chase Jenkins run for 4 yds to the RICE 24Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
84.8%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Tyson ThompsonSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0585% → 84%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.6%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Chatman,Brandon) 5 yards from Navy25 to Navy20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
84.6%
Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
84.5%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.2%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
83.9%
Jacob Carlson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5416% → 16%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
84.0%
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
83.8%
Quinton Jackson run for no gain to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
83.7%
Chase Jenkins run for no gain to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
84.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:1384% → 88%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+65
84.0%
Alex Tecza run for 65 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
84.7%
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the RICE 8Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
88.0%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:3114% → 13%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
86.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for no gain to the RICE 31Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
86.5%
Chase Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 30Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+11
86.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.6%
Daelen Alexander run for no gain to the RICE 41Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
86.6%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden DickmannSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
86.7%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:3888% → 88%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
87.8%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OWN 22
-10
88.0%
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NAVY 17Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
88.0%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 21Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+7
87.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+26
88.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 26 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
88.7%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Heater,Connor) 5 yards from Rice46 to Navy49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+15
88.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 15 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
88.8%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Crowley,Sean) 5 yards from Rice36 to Rice41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+3
88.1%
Charles Robinson run for 3 yds to the RICE 38Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 12
OPP 38
0
88.4%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Luke HutchisonSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 12
OPP 38
0
88.0%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
88.3%
Jacob Carlson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2212% → 12%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.1%
Daelen Alexander run for 5 yds to the RICE 30Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
88.0%
Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd to the RICE 31Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
88.2%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Aaron TurnerSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
88.4%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 43 yds , Brandon Chatman returns for 5 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:3489% → 90%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
88.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+11
88.8%
Blake Horvath run for 11 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
89.4%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
89.4%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+15
89.4%
Alex Tecza run for 15 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
90.0%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the RICE 33Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
90.3%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
90.3%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-2
90.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:5511% → 12%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
89.0%
Drayden Dickmann run for 1 yd to the RICE 30Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+15
89.0%
Quinton Jackson run for 15 yds to the RICE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
88.6%
Quinton Jackson run for 11 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
88.5%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Luke Pirris for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 49Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
89.6%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+9
89.6%
Quinton Jackson run for 9 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+2
88.4%
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11MISSED FG
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:0490% → 91%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
90.1%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 29 yds to the RICE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+43
91.3%
Nathan Kirkwood 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0311% → 10%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
89.3%
Quinton Jackson run for 8 yds to the RICE 22Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+4
88.9%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the RICE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
89.3%
(13:59) PENALTY Rice False Start (Falk,James) 5 yards from Rice26 to Rice21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-4
89.4%
Quinton Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 17Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+1
89.7%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 1 yd to the RICE 18Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+11
89.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
90.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:0491% → 92%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
90.5%
(11:44) Shotgun Chatman,Brandon rush left for 9 yards gain to the Navy29 (Porter,Omari), out of bounds PENALTY Navy Holding (Purvis,Ben) 10 yards from Navy20 to Navy10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+29
90.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 29 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
91.0%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
91.5%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+14
91.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 14 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
91.8%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Plae Wyatt return for 7 yds to the RICE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14FG
21 plays · 48 yds · 8:0411% → 10%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
89.5%
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 8 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
88.9%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Semaj PierreSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
89.1%
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 1 yd to the RICE 44Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+7
89.6%
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 7 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.8%
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for no gain to the NAVY 49Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
89.3%
Chase Jenkins run for 4 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-5
89.1%
PENALTY Rice False Start 5 yards from Navy45 to Navy50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 11
50
+11
89.8%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
89.2%
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 6 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
88.4%
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for no gain to the NAVY 33Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
89.8%
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+4
91.1%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
90.4%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 22Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
90.7%
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 20Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-5
91.7%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Long,John) 5 yards from Navy20 to Navy25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+9
92.1%
Chase Jenkins run for 9 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
91.5%
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 17Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 11
OPP 17
0
92.0%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden DickmannSimilar
Q3 0:26
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
92.7%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden DickmannSimilar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
89.6%
Enock Gota 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2791% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
91.3%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.2%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 35Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+34
91.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 34 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
92.4%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the RICE 29Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
92.4%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Jackson GutierrezSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-5
92.0%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Smith II,Hoke) 5 yards from Rice29 to Rice34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+19
91.8%
Blake Horvath run for 19 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
92.5%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the RICE 13Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+11
92.7%
Blake Horvath run for 11 yds to the RICE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.1%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:103% → 8%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.0%
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the RICE 43Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+16
97.0%
Chase Jenkins run for 16 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
97.0%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 36 yds to the NAVY 5 for a 1ST down Navy Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
96.5%
Chase Jenkins run for 2 yds to the NAVY 3Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
96.6%
Chase Jenkins run for 1 yd to the NAVY 2Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
96.9%
Drayden Dickmann run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 3Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.3%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:5194% → 96%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.0%
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the NAVY 33Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
94.9%
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 33Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
94.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
95.3%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 4 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
95.8%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+2
96.2%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 2 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
96.1%
Jacob Carlson punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 2:353% → 5%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
97.0%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 6 yds to the RICE 26Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-4
96.7%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Griffen Willis for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 22Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+9
97.2%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Ryan Guillo for 9 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
96.5%
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden DickmannSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the RICE 35Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
96.8%
Chase Jenkins run for 5 yds to the RICE 40Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+20
97.5%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 20 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
96.4%
PENALTY Rice False Start (Long,John) 5 yards from Navy40 to Navy45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+2
97.1%
Chase Jenkins run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+2
97.1%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 2 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+15
97.1%
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Chase pass incomplete deep left to Pierre,Semaj thrown to Navy02 PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Hamilton,Phillip) 15 yards from Navy41 to Navy26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+44
89.5%
Enock Gota 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
94.6%
PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Sean) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
97.7%
(00:18) Kneel down by Navy at Rice42 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:24
Enock Gota 44 yd FG GOOD
-7.6
TD · Q4 10:33
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+5.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:24
PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Sean) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20. NO PLAY.
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com