RICE
Rice 13 at Navy 21
NAVY2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
NAVY · Drive 1TD · 16 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
85.5%
0.0
Q1 14:52
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30
86.8%
+1.3
Q1 14:11
Brandon Chatman run for 22 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST down
86.6%
-0.2
Q1 13:34
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the RICE 41
87.6%
+0.9
Q1 13:03
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli Heidenreich
87.8%
+0.2
Q1 12:53
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 10 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST down
87.6%
-0.1
Q1 12:36
(12:40) Robinson,Charles rush right for 9 yards gain to the Rice22 (Stevenson,Peyton; Clark-Jolivet,Chris) PENALTY Navy Holding (Acevedo,Jaylin) 10 yards from Rice31 to Rice41. NO PLAY.
87.8%
+0.1
Q1 12:08
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the RICE 36
87.8%
0.0
Q1 11:27
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the RICE 34
87.8%
0.0
Q1 10:43
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 15 yds to the RICE 19 for a 1ST down
87.6%
-0.1
Q1 10:28
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the RICE 17
87.8%
+0.1
Q1 9:45
Brandon Chatman run for 12 yds to the RICE 5 for a 1ST down
87.8%
0.0
Q1 9:04
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the RICE 3
87.8%
+0.1
Q1 8:26
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 4
87.6%
-0.2
Q1 7:46
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the RICE 2
87.5%
-0.1
Q1 7:04
Luke Hutchison run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
92.3%
+4.8
RICE · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · -1 yds
Q1 7:04
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 54 yds
92.4%
+0.1
Q1 6:58
Quinton Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 20
91.9%
-0.5
Q1 6:20
Chase Jenkins run for 4 yds to the RICE 24
91.7%
-0.2
Q1 5:42
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Tyson Thompson
91.6%
-0.1
Q1 5:33
Alex Bacchetta punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 25
91.6%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · -4 yds
Q1 5:30
PENALTY Navy False Start (Chatman,Brandon) 5 yards from Navy25 to Navy20. NO PLAY.
92.1%
+0.5
Q1 5:23
Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 28
92.1%
0.0
Q1 4:41
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 25
92.1%
0.0
Q1 4:01
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 26
92.1%
0.0
Q1 3:25
Jacob Carlson punt for 43 yds
91.8%
-0.3
RICE · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 3 yds
Q1 3:18
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the RICE 39
91.5%
-0.3
Q1 2:45
Quinton Jackson run for no gain to the RICE 39
91.3%
-0.2
Q1 2:01
Chase Jenkins run for no gain to the RICE 39
91.2%
-0.1
Q1 1:24
Alex Bacchetta punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 20
91.3%
+0.1
NAVY · Drive 5TD · 3 plays · 80 yds
Q1 1:09
Alex Tecza run for 65 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST down
91.8%
+0.4
Q1 0:00
Blake Horvath run for 7 yds to the RICE 8
92.0%
+0.2
Q2 14:56
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
97.3%
+5.3
RICE · Drive 6PUNT · 8 plays · 10 yds
Q2 14:51
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 48 yds , Tyson Thompson return for 14 yds to the RICE 31
97.2%
0.0
Q2 14:38
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for no gain to the RICE 31
95.7%
-1.6
Q2 14:14
Chase Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 30
95.7%
0.0
Q2 13:31
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST down
95.7%
0.0
Q2 12:58
Daelen Alexander run for no gain to the RICE 41
95.7%
0.0
Q2 12:26
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden Dickmann
95.7%
0.0
Q2 12:17
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Braylen Walker
95.7%
0.0
Q2 12:07
Alex Bacchetta punt for 45 yds
95.7%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 7PUNT · 13 plays · 48 yds
Q2 12:00
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the NAVY 22
97.3%
+1.6
Q2 11:23
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NAVY 17
97.2%
0.0
Q2 10:52
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 21
97.2%
0.0
Q2 10:12
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST down
97.2%
0.0
Q2 9:27
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 26 yds to the RICE 46 for a 1ST down
97.2%
0.0
Q2 9:27
PENALTY Navy False Start (Heater,Connor) 5 yards from Rice46 to Navy49. NO PLAY.
97.3%
0.0
Q2 8:51
Blake Horvath pass complete to Nathan Kent for 15 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST down
97.3%
0.0
Q2 8:32
PENALTY Navy False Start (Crowley,Sean) 5 yards from Rice36 to Rice41. NO PLAY.
97.3%
0.0
Q2 8:04
Charles Robinson run for 3 yds to the RICE 38
97.2%
-0.1
Q2 7:34
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Luke Hutchison
97.2%
0.0
Q2 7:29
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli Heidenreich
97.1%
0.0
Q2 7:29
Timeout Rice, clock 07:29
97.4%
+0.3
Q2 7:22
Jacob Carlson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 25
97.4%
0.0
RICE · Drive 8PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q2 7:15
Daelen Alexander run for 5 yds to the RICE 30
95.7%
-1.8
Q2 6:36
Daelen Alexander run for 1 yd to the RICE 31
95.7%
0.0
Q2 6:02
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Aaron Turner
95.7%
0.0
Q2 5:53
Alex Bacchetta punt for 43 yds , Brandon Chatman returns for 5 yds to the NAVY 31
95.7%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 9DOWNS · 9 plays · 40 yds
Q2 5:46
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 32
97.5%
+1.8
Q2 5:08
Blake Horvath run for 11 yds to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST down
97.5%
+0.1
Q2 4:36
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 47
97.5%
0.0
Q2 4:07
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 49
97.5%
0.0
Q2 3:24
Alex Tecza run for 15 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST down
97.6%
+0.1
Q2 2:40
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the RICE 33
97.7%
+0.1
Q2 2:03
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the RICE 28
97.7%
0.0
Q2 1:53
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the RICE 27
97.6%
0.0
Q2 1:12
Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 29
97.6%
0.0
RICE · Drive 10DOWNS · 8 plays · 33 yds
Q2 1:07
Drayden Dickmann run for 1 yd to the RICE 30
96.1%
-1.5
Q2 1:01
Quinton Jackson run for 15 yds to the RICE 45 for a 1ST down
96.1%
0.0
Q2 0:51
Quinton Jackson run for 11 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST down
96.1%
0.0
Q2 0:39
Chase Jenkins sacked by Luke Pirris for a loss of 5 yards to the NAVY 49
96.3%
+0.2
Q2 0:33
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Braylen Walker
96.3%
0.0
Q2 0:26
Quinton Jackson run for 9 yds to the NAVY 40
96.1%
-0.2
Q2 0:15
Timeout Navy, clock 00:15
96.0%
-0.1
Q2 0:12
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 38
95.9%
-0.1
NAVY · Drive 11MISSED FG · 3 plays · 29 yds
Q2 0:04
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 29 yds to the RICE 33 for a 1ST down
97.7%
+1.8
Q2 0:04
Timeout Rice, clock 00:04
97.7%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Nathan Kirkwood 43 yd FG MISSED
97.7%
0.0
RICE · Drive 12PUNT · 8 plays · 15 yds
Q3 14:56
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 51 yds , Quinton Jackson return for no gain to the RICE 14
97.4%
-0.3
Q3 14:48
Quinton Jackson run for 8 yds to the RICE 22
96.0%
-1.4
Q3 14:22
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the RICE 26 for a 1ST down
96.0%
0.0
Q3 13:59
(13:59) PENALTY Rice False Start (Falk,James) 5 yards from Rice26 to Rice21. NO PLAY.
96.0%
0.0
Q3 13:40
Quinton Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 17
96.0%
-0.1
Q3 13:02
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 1 yd to the RICE 18
95.9%
0.0
Q3 12:18
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the RICE 29
95.9%
0.0
Q3 11:45
Alex Bacchetta punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 20
95.9%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 13INT · 6 plays · 38 yds
Q3 11:41
(11:44) Shotgun Chatman,Brandon rush left for 9 yards gain to the Navy29 (Porter,Omari), out of bounds PENALTY Navy Holding (Purvis,Ben) 10 yards from Navy20 to Navy10. NO PLAY.
97.5%
+1.6
Q3 11:09
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 29 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q3 10:37
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 42
97.5%
0.0
Q3 9:59
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 44
97.5%
0.0
Q3 9:15
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 14 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q3 8:37
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Plae Wyatt return for 7 yds to the RICE 35
97.6%
+0.1
RICE · Drive 14FG · 21 plays · 48 yds
Q3 8:26
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 8 yds to the RICE 43
96.0%
-1.6
Q3 8:01
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Semaj Pierre
96.0%
0.0
Q3 7:54
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 1 yd to the RICE 44
96.0%
0.0
Q3 7:17
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 7 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST down
96.0%
0.0
Q3 6:58
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for no gain to the NAVY 49
95.8%
-0.2
Q3 6:24
Chase Jenkins run for 4 yds to the NAVY 45
95.8%
0.0
Q3 5:49
PENALTY Rice False Start 5 yards from Navy45 to Navy50. NO PLAY.
95.9%
+0.1
Q3 5:32
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Braylen Walker for 11 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down
95.9%
0.0
Q3 5:05
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 6 yds to the NAVY 33
95.8%
-0.1
Q3 4:47
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for no gain to the NAVY 33
95.4%
-0.4
Q3 4:05
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 30
95.3%
-0.1
Q3 3:40
Timeout Rice, clock 03:40
95.7%
+0.4
Q3 3:35
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST down
95.7%
0.0
Q3 3:13
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 22
95.6%
-0.1
Q3 2:43
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 20
95.7%
+0.1
Q3 2:13
PENALTY Rice False Start (Long,John) 5 yards from Navy20 to Navy25. NO PLAY.
95.7%
0.0
Q3 1:41
Chase Jenkins run for 9 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST down
95.7%
0.0
Q3 1:11
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 17
95.7%
0.0
Q3 0:33
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden Dickmann
95.7%
0.0
Q3 0:26
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden Dickmann
95.7%
0.0
Q3 0:22
Enock Gota 35 yd FG GOOD
94.9%
-0.8
NAVY · Drive 15TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:22
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.2%
+0.3
Q3 0:00
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31
97.4%
+2.3
Q4 14:55
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST down
97.4%
0.0
Q4 14:15
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 35
97.5%
+0.1
Q4 13:32
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 34 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST down
97.5%
0.0
Q4 13:02
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the RICE 29
97.6%
0.0
Q4 12:47
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Jackson Gutierrez
97.6%
0.0
Q4 12:47
PENALTY Navy False Start (Smith II,Hoke) 5 yards from Rice29 to Rice34. NO PLAY.
97.6%
0.0
Q4 12:38
Blake Horvath run for 19 yds to the RICE 15 for a 1ST down
97.6%
0.0
Q4 11:59
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the RICE 13
97.7%
+0.1
Q4 11:14
Blake Horvath run for 11 yds to the RICE 2 for a 1ST down
97.7%
0.0
Q4 10:33
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
99.3%
+1.6
RICE · Drive 16TD · 8 plays · 61 yds
Q4 10:24
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 61 yds , Tyson Thompson return for 35 yds to the RICE 39
99.3%
0.0
Q4 10:15
Quinton Jackson run for 4 yds to the RICE 43
98.7%
-0.6
Q4 9:40
Chase Jenkins run for 16 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down
98.7%
-0.1
Q4 9:07
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 36 yds to the NAVY 5 for a 1ST down Navy Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q4 8:54
Chase Jenkins run for 2 yds to the NAVY 3
98.6%
0.0
Q4 8:22
Chase Jenkins run for 1 yd to the NAVY 2
98.6%
0.0
Q4 7:45
Drayden Dickmann run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 3
98.5%
0.0
Q4 7:05
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
96.1%
-2.5
NAVY · Drive 17PUNT · 9 plays · 20 yds
Q4 7:05
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.1%
+0.1
Q4 6:58
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the NAVY 33
97.7%
+1.6
Q4 6:08
Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 33
97.7%
0.0
Q4 5:27
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST down
97.7%
0.0
Q4 4:46
Jackson Gutierrez run for 4 yds to the NAVY 42
97.7%
0.0
Q4 3:58
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 43
97.8%
+0.1
Q4 3:18
Jackson Gutierrez run for 2 yds to the NAVY 45
98.0%
+0.2
Q4 3:18
Timeout Rice, clock 03:18
98.0%
0.0
Q4 3:07
Jacob Carlson punt for 55 yds for a touchback
98.0%
0.0
RICE · Drive 18FG · 16 plays · 54 yds
Q4 2:59
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 6 yds to the RICE 26
96.3%
-1.7
Q4 2:35
Chase Jenkins sacked by Griffen Willis for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 22
96.3%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Ryan Guillo for 9 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST down
96.3%
-0.1
Q4 2:00
Timeout Navy, clock 02:00
95.9%
-0.4
Q4 1:57
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden Dickmann
96.0%
+0.1
Q4 1:46
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 4 yds to the RICE 35
96.0%
0.0
Q4 1:15
Chase Jenkins run for 5 yds to the RICE 40
96.1%
+0.1
Q4 1:13
Timeout Rice, clock 01:13
96.0%
0.0
Q4 1:06
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 20 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down
96.0%
0.0
Q4 0:59
PENALTY Rice False Start (Long,John) 5 yards from Navy40 to Navy45. NO PLAY.
95.8%
-0.2
Q4 0:39
Chase Jenkins run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43
96.0%
+0.2
Q4 0:36
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 2 yds to the NAVY 41
95.8%
-0.2
Q4 0:29
(00:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Jenkins,Chase pass incomplete deep left to Pierre,Semaj thrown to Navy02 PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Hamilton,Phillip) 15 yards from Navy41 to Navy26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
95.8%
0.0
Q4 0:24
Enock Gota 44 yd FG GOOD
95.7%
-0.1
Q4 0:24
PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sullivan,Sean) 15 yards from Rice35 to Rice20. NO PLAY.
96.0%
+0.3
Q4 0:24
Timeout Navy, clock 00:24
96.0%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 19END OF GAME · 2 plays · -1 yds
Q4 0:23
Chase Allen kickoff for 21 yds
95.9%
-0.1
Q4 0:00
(00:18) Kneel down by Navy at Rice42 for loss of 1 yard.
96.2%
+0.3
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:56
Blake Horvath run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q1 7:04
Luke Hutchison run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q4 7:05
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
-2.5