Try the model
MEM

Memphis 55 at Florida Atlantic 26

FAU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · FAU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+4.5FAU 34.0%Jayshon Platt run for 10 yds for a TD(Two-Point Conversion failed)AWAY 10 - HOME 13 · Q2 9:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:44 · Jayshon Platt run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior−23.0Home team on offense+3.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +17.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:57: Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 90 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +13.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:55: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +12.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:20: Xavier Terrell run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +19.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 9:32: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +17.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 10:27FAU 4th & 2 at MEM 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−4.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10FAU 4th & 1 at MEM 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    22.7%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:08MEM 4th & 5 at FAU 34, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:01FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:21MEM 4th & 23 at MEM 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−1.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:00MEM 4th & 6 at FAU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.5%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:18FAU 4th & 5 at MEM 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:31FAU 4th & 15 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:41FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:21MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:29FAU 4th & 5 at MEM 11, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:14MEM 4th & 1 at FAU 39, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−5.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:15FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 46, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:11FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:11FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:54MEM 4th & 4 at FAU 7, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:43FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:07FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 48, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:42MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:44FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:22MEM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:57MEM Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:55MEM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:20FAU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:32MEM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:02MEM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:04MEM Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5981% → 81%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
19.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 42 yds to the FAU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
19.2%
(14:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Desrosiers Jr.,Greg rush left for 3 yards gain to the FAU30 (Williams,Dillion; Hart, Jr.,Leon) PENALTY FAU Offside (Paret,Zion) 5 yards from FAU33 to FAU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 5
OPP 28
-1
19.4%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 29Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+11
19.6%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 11 yds to the FAU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
19.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 56 yds · 20:1619% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
19.0%
Xavier Terrell run for 5 yds to the FAU 49Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
26.5%
Xavier Terrell run for 5 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
26.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 9 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
26.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
26.8%
Xavier Terrell run for 1 yd to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
27.3%
Xavier Terrell run for no gain to the MEM 36Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
27.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 5 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+9
27.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 9 yds to the MEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
28.9%
Gemari Sands run for 1 yd to the MEM 21Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+8
29.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 8 yds to the MEM 13Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+1
28.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the MEM 14 Caden Veltkamp fumbled, recovered by FAU Daughtry RichardsonSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+9
27.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Michael Kirch for 9 yds to the MEM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
29.4%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short right to Sands,Gemari thrown to MEM00 QB hurried by Bell,Jalen PENALTY FAU Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from MEM05 to MEM10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
34.0%
Jayshon Platt run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1320% → 23%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 3 yds to the FAU 28Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+35
20.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 35 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
21.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 7 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
21.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-5
21.3%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Atcavage,Alex) 5 yards from MEM30 to MEM35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
21.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 10 yds to the MEM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
21.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 19 yds to the MEM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
21.9%
Caden Veltkamp run for 5 yds to the MEM 1Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.5%
Vincent Fiacable run for 1 yd to the MEM 2 Vincent Fiacable fumbled, recovered by FAU Caden VeltkampSimilar
Q1 9:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
22.4%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd to the MEM 1Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.5%
Caden Veltkamp run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 5:4778% → 74%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the MEM 33Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
22.4%
PENALTY MEM False Start (Hawkins,Jamari) 5 yards from MEM33 to MEM28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
22.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the MEM 33Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
23.2%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
23.3%
PENALTY MEM Illegal Snap (Walker,Yakiri) 5 yards from MEM39 to MEM34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+13
23.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 13 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
23.5%
Sutton Smith run for 4 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
23.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 10 yds to the FAU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
24.2%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the FAU 36Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
24.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
25.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sutton Smith for no gain to the FAU 34Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
25.9%
Gianni Spetic 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0026% → 26%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
26.0%
Caden Veltkamp run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 23Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
26.0%
Gemari Sands run for 4 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
25.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
25.7%
Logan Lupo punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MEM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:3373% → 71%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
26.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Sutton SmithSimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
27.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for no gain to the MEM 18Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-13
27.9%
Brendon Lewis sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the MEM 5Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 23
OWN 5
0
29.0%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the FAU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:2868% → 64%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 7 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
30.8%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 7 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
31.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
31.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
31.6%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
50
+6
31.6%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 6 yds to the FAU 44Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-2
31.7%
Arrington Maiden run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 46Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
33.6%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the FAU 46Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
35.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Jamari HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:3638% → 46%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
38.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
37.6%
Gemari Sands run for 9 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+18
38.8%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST down Memphis Penalty, Personal Foul (Kamari Wilson) to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
40.3%
Gemari Sands run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 29Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+15
40.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 15 yds to the MEM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
40.9%
Gemari Sands run for 1 yd to the MEM 13Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
41.3%
Xavier Terrell run for 4 yds to the MEM 9Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
40.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
45.8%
Garrison Smith 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:3855% → 74%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 4 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
44.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 6 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
44.4%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 5 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
42.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+13
42.9%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 13 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
41.9%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 26 yds to the FAU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
40.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Bryce Dorsey for no gain to the FAU 17Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
40.3%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 19Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+17
43.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 17 yds to the FAU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.1%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 38 yds · 0:0830% → 34%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+18
29.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 18 yds to the FAU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
31.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 8 yds to the FAU 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+12
33.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 12 yds to the FAU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:1834% → 34%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
33.6%
Caden Veltkamp run for 18 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
36.3%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
35.3%
Xavier Terrell run for 2 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+10
34.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 10 yds to the MEM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Dominique HenrySimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
37.9%
Xavier Terrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 46Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 11
OPP 46
-5
35.2%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Atcavage,Alex) 5 yards from MEM46 to FAU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+1
34.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Kaden Shields-Dutton for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 15
50
0
33.7%
Logan Lupo punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD
4 plays · 99 yds · 1:2466% → 77%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
34.4%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 2Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+8
35.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 8 yds to the MEM 10Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+90
22.8%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 90 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0423% → 22%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 2 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
23.4%
Xavier Terrell run for 1 yd to the FAU 28Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
22.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 2 yds to the FAU 30Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+20
21.5%
Logan Lupo punt for 55 yds , Sutton Smith returns for 20 yds to the MEM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0580% → 77%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
20.5%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd to the MEM 36Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-6
20.5%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Tyler Stolsky for a loss of 6 yards to the MEM 30Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
22.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Cortez Braham Jr.Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
23.1%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the FAU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:4223% → 32%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
22.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 12 yds to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
23.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Dominique HenrySimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+50
23.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 50 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
26.7%
Xavier Terrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 17Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+6
26.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 6 yds to the MEM 11Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
24.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Xavier TerrellSimilar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
32.3%
Garrison Smith 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2774% → 90%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
26.1%
Sutton Smith run for 17 yds to the FAU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
24.2%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
24.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Cortez Braham Jr.Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
24.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 6 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
26.2%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the FAU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
23.2%
Brendon Lewis run for no gain to the FAU 36Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+15
23.3%
(00:57) Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete deep left to Braham Jr.,Cortez thrown to FAU02 broken up by Reid,Terez PENALTY FAU Pass Interference (Reid,Terez) 15 yards from FAU36 to FAU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
22.6%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the FAU 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+5
22.6%
Brendon Lewis run for 5 yds to the FAU 18Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
10.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:2615% → 14%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 8 yds to the FAU 33Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
15.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 12 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
15.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Xavier Terrell for 1 yd to the FAU 46Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
15.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
14.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
14.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Dominique HenrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:4890% → 91%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
10.5%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
10.6%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the FAU 43Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-12
9.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Leon Hart Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the MEM 19 Brendon Lewis fumbled, recovered by FAU Khmari Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-12
9.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Leon Hart Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the MEM 19 Brendon Lewis fumbled, recovered by FAU Khmari Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5118% → 38%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
17.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 8 yds to the MEM 11Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
17.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
16.6%
Caden Veltkamp run for 3 yds to the MEM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
17.9%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 2 yds to the MEM 6Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.6%
Xavier Terrell run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3975% → 92%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
24.7%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
7.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0812% → 11%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Xavier TerrellSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
11.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jayshon PlattSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-10
11.3%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden rush right for 9 yards gain to the FAU30 (Watts,Drue) PENALTY FAU Holding (Atcavage,Alex) 10 yards from FAU21 to FAU11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+13
11.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 13 yds to the FAU 24Similar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
10.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
10.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0994% → 97%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
6.5%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the FAU 23Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+10
5.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 10 yds to the FAU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
5.4%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd to the FAU 12Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+2
5.2%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds to the FAU 10Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+3
5.2%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 3 yds to the FAU 7Similar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
2.9%
Gianni Spetic 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 1:303% → 3%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
3.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-1
3.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 25Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
3.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jabari Smith for 5 yds to the FAU 30Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+13
3.0%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 13 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
3.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Xavier Terrell for 5 yds to the FAU 48Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
3.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Jabari SmithSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
3.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Asaad WaseemSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
3.1%
Caden Veltkamp pass incomplete to Kaden Shields-DuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 0:5798% → 100%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+39
2.0%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 29 yds to the FAU 19 for a 1ST down Florida Atlantic Penalty, Personal Foul (Deshaun Batiste) to the FAU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
1.9%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (5 Yards) to the FAU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.4%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.3%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the FAU 15Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.1%
Brendon Lewis run for 15 yds for a TD Florida Atlantic Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryce Langston) to the FAU 0 (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for no gain to the FAU 25Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.1%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 1 yd to the FAU 26Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
0.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Kaden Shields-Dutton for 4 yds to the FAU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:20
Xavier Terrell run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
+19.7
TD · Q2 0:22
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-17.5
TD · Q4 9:32
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 73 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com