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ARMY

Army 6 at East Carolina 28

ECU
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 25, 2025 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:10 · Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ARMY 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense+21.0Pregame prior+5.6Score differential+9.4Garbage-time factor+9.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:39: Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +5.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:32: Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARMY win probability +9.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:20: Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARMY 43 — ECU win probability +4.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 3:02: Dewayne Coleman run for 10 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST down — ARMY win probability +2.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:14: Kyler Pearson run for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK) — ECU win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 10:34ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25ARMY 4th & 5 at ECU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:16ARMY 4th & 5 at ECU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:27ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:19ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:07ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:32ARMY 4th & 2 at ECU 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−7.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:48ECU 4th & 2 at ARMY 42, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−2.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:45ARMY 4th & 1 at ECU 49, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:10ECU 4th & 1 at ARMY 16, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.0%−1.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:02ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 28, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:10ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 10, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:36ARMY 4th & 12 at ECU 44, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:14ECU 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:38ARMY 4th & 3 at ECU 47, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:43ARMY 4th & 8 at ECU 42, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:15ARMY 4th & 9 at ECU 17, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 12:05ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:22ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:39ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:32ARMY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:14ECU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4568% → 69%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.4%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
68.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 11 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
68.4%
Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the ECU 45Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+41
68.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 41 yds to the ARMY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
68.5%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ARMY 9Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
68.5%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ARMY 7Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+4
68.4%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ARMY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.5%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.4%
Katin Houser 3 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1231% → 31%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.1%
Noah Short run for 5 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
69.0%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Samari HowardSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
69.2%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
69.4%
James Wagenseller punt for 38 yds, downed at the ECU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0769% → 73%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
69.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 17 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
69.9%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 48Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
70.0%
Parker Jenkins run for 6 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+3
70.0%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
70.2%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+40
72.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 40 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 36 yds · 4:5428% → 25%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
71.9%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 36Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
72.1%
Noah Short run for 15 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
72.1%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 2 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+3
72.3%
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
72.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for no gain to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+10
73.1%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Parker Poloskey for 10 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
72.6%
Dewayne Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
72.6%
Noah Short run for 4 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+1
73.2%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the ECU 29Similar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 5
OPP 29
0
74.7%
Dewayne Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:3476% → 83%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
75.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+27
75.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 27 yds to the ARMY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
76.9%
London Montgomery run for 8 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+6
77.2%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the ARMY 30 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ECU Jayvontay Conner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
77.5%
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
77.7%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ARMY 22Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+2
77.7%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the ARMY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
83.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:2317% → 16%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
83.3%
Noah Short run for 8 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
83.4%
Noah Short run for 30 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
83.0%
Noah Short run for 5 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+3
83.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ECU 27Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
84.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ECU 24 Dewayne Coleman fumbled, recovered by ECU Rasheed ReasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1186% → 86%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
85.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 6 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+2
86.0%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
86.1%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the ECU 33Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
86.0%
East Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECU 28Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
86.1%
Ryan Leavy punt for 46 yds , Lloyd Benson III returns for no gain to the ARMY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:5214% → 12%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.5%
Noah Short run for no gain to the ARMY 26Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+13
87.4%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Samari Howard for 13 yds to the ARMY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
87.3%
Briggs Bartosh run for 8 yds to the ARMY 49Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+1
87.2%
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 1
50
-7
87.2%
Dewayne Coleman sacked by Samuel Dankah for a loss of 7 yards to the ARMY 43Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
88.3%
James Wagenseller punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:0190% → 92%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
90.1%
Jaquaize Pettaway run for 1 yd to the ECU 13Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+19
90.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 19 yds to the ECU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
90.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 11 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
91.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 6 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
91.2%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+13
91.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 13 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
91.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 6 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+6
91.7%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
91.8%
London Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 27Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 11
OPP 27
-2
92.3%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Stephen Nnadozie return for 2 yds to the ARMY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:349% → 9%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
90.7%
Coleman, Dewayne pass complete to Short, Noah for 25 yards to the ARMY44, PENALTY ARMY illegal touching 0 yards to the ARMY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
90.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARMY 22Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+6
91.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 1
OWN 28
-1
91.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 9 yds · 1:2394% → 95%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
93.6%
Parker Jenkins run for 5 yds to the ARMY 22Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
93.6%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the ARMY 18Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+9
93.6%
Army Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the ARMY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
93.8%
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the ARMY 7Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
93.9%
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 10Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 0
OPP 10
0
94.0%
Houser, Katin rush for no gain to the ARMY10, PENALTY ARMY personal foul off-setting, PENALTY EASTCRLINA Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
94.3%
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 7Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-11
94.8%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 11 yards to the ARMY 18 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ARMY Eric FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:105% → 5%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
94.8%
Dewayne Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
94.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for 9 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:178% → 16%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
92.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 8 yds to the ARMY 34Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
92.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+60
92.6%
Noah Short run for 60 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for no gain to the ECU 4Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.4%
Noah Short run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 5Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
93.2%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ECU 2Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.2%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2488% → 89%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 26Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
87.7%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the ECU 30Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
87.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
50
+2
89.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 2 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
89.4%
Parker Jenkins run for 5 yds to the ARMY 43Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
89.2%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the ARMY 42Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
88.7%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4014% → 13%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.4%
Samari Howard run for no gain to the ARMY 42Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
86.8%
Noah Short run for 4 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
87.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-1
87.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1092% → 93%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
50
+7
92.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARMY 43Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
92.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ARMY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
92.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 12 yds to the ARMY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
92.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 9 yds to the ARMY 16Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-2
92.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 18Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
93.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARMY 16Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
92.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ARMY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:0010% → 8%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
89.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for 10 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
89.7%
Briggs Bartosh run for 2 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
90.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-3
91.1%
Noah Short run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 28Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
91.9%
James Wagenseller punt for 71 yds, downed at the ECU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:3593% → 94%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
93.3%
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 5Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+2
93.5%
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ECU 7Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+5
93.5%
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-8
93.9%
Katin Houser sacked by Gavin Shields for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 4Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 18
OWN 4
0
93.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 18
OWN 4
+6
93.7%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ECU 10Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
93.6%
Ryan Leavy punt for 32 yds, downed at the ECU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:188% → 6%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
91.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for no gain to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
92.0%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for no gain to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-2
92.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 44Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+11
94.2%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 11 yds to the ECU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:1396% → 99%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
95.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the ECU 40Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
95.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
96.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 15 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
96.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
96.2%
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-2
96.1%
London Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 32Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+32
99.1%
Kyler Pearson run for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 58 yds · 6:441% → 1%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
98.9%
Cale Hellums run for 21 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
98.9%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
99.1%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+2
99.2%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ECU 47Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+3
99.2%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.2%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ECU 43Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
99.2%
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
99.3%
Cale Hellums pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 8
OPP 42
+13
99.3%
Cale Hellums pass complete to Samari Howard for 13 yds to the ECU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
99.2%
Cale Hellums run for 8 yds to the ECU 21Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
99.2%
Briggs Bartosh run for 3 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
99.2%
Briggs Bartosh run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 19Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
99.3%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ECU 18Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.3%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ECU 17Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 9
OPP 17
0
99.4%
Cale Hellums pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.7%
Mike Wright Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 19Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
99.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the ECU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:32
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-9
TD · Q1 0:39
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
+5.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:20
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARMY 43
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com