ARMY
Army 6 at East Carolina 28
ECU2025 · Week 5 · Sep 25, 2025 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey play
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
ECU · Drive 1TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Anderson Britton kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
60.0%
0.0
Q1 14:50
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 30
62.2%
+2.2
Q1 14:30
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 11 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST down
62.5%
+0.3
Q1 14:14
Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the ECU 45
63.3%
+0.9
Q1 13:48
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 41 yds to the ARMY 14 for a 1ST down
63.5%
+0.2
Q1 13:25
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ARMY 9
64.8%
+1.2
Q1 13:04
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ARMY 7
64.8%
0.0
Q1 12:35
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ARMY 3 for a 1ST down
64.5%
-0.2
Q1 12:20
Katin Houser pass incomplete
64.8%
+0.2
Q1 12:05
Katin Houser 3 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)
76.7%
+11.9
ARMY · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q1 12:07
Everett Scott kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
62.5%
-14.2
Q1 11:46
Noah Short run for 5 yds to the ARMY 30
72.5%
+10.0
Q1 11:11
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Samari Howard
72.5%
0.0
Q1 11:00
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 32
72.5%
0.0
Q1 10:34
James Wagenseller punt for 38 yds, downed at the ECU 30
72.5%
0.0
ECU · Drive 3TD · 6 plays · 70 yds
Q1 10:29
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 17 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST down
75.9%
+3.4
Q1 9:58
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 48
76.6%
+0.8
Q1 9:38
Parker Jenkins run for 6 yds to the ARMY 46
76.6%
0.0
Q1 9:19
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 43 for a 1ST down
76.5%
-0.1
Q1 8:55
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 40
76.5%
0.0
Q1 8:22
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 40 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
85.2%
+8.7
ARMY · Drive 4DOWNS · 12 plays · 36 yds
Q1 8:22
Everett Scott kickoff for 63 yds
85.1%
-0.2
Q1 8:10
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 36
85.0%
-0.1
Q1 7:47
Noah Short run for 15 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST down
85.0%
0.0
Q1 7:17
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 2 yds to the ECU 47
84.7%
-0.3
Q1 6:44
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the ECU 44
84.7%
0.0
Q1 5:55
Dewayne Coleman run for no gain to the ECU 44
83.6%
-1.1
Q1 5:25
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Parker Poloskey for 10 yds to the ECU 34 for a 1ST down
83.6%
0.0
Q1 4:46
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete
82.9%
-0.7
Q1 4:26
Noah Short run for 4 yds to the ECU 30
82.9%
0.0
Q1 3:58
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the ECU 29
82.9%
0.0
Q1 3:23
Timeout Army, clock 03:23
83.3%
+0.4
Q1 3:16
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete
83.3%
0.0
ECU · Drive 5TD · 9 plays · 71 yds
Q1 3:13
Katin Houser pass incomplete
86.5%
+3.3
Q1 3:09
Katin Houser pass incomplete
86.5%
0.0
Q1 2:38
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 27 yds to the ARMY 44 for a 1ST down
86.5%
0.0
Q1 2:22
London Montgomery run for 8 yds to the ARMY 36
86.6%
+0.1
Q1 2:06
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the ARMY 30 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ECU Jayvontay Conner for a 1ST down
86.7%
0.0
Q1 1:30
London Montgomery run for 3 yds to the ARMY 27
86.9%
+0.2
Q1 1:10
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ARMY 22
86.9%
0.0
Q1 0:45
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the ARMY 20 for a 1ST down
86.8%
-0.1
Q1 0:39
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 20 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
92.5%
+5.7
ARMY · Drive 6FUMBLE · 7 plays · 48 yds
Q1 0:39
Everett Scott kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
92.5%
0.0
Q1 0:20
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27
91.8%
-0.8
Q1 0:10
Noah Short run for 8 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST down
91.8%
0.0
Q2 14:48
Noah Short run for 30 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST down
91.7%
0.0
Q2 13:59
Noah Short run for 5 yds to the ECU 30
90.9%
-0.9
Q2 13:20
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ECU 27
90.9%
0.0
Q2 12:57
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ECU 24 Dewayne Coleman fumbled, recovered by ECU Rasheed Reason
90.9%
0.0
ECU · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q2 12:38
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 6 yds to the ECU 30
92.9%
+2.0
Q2 12:29
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the ECU 32
92.9%
0.0
Q2 11:59
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the ECU 33
92.9%
0.0
Q2 11:45
East Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECU 28
92.9%
0.0
Q2 11:27
Ryan Leavy punt for 46 yds , Lloyd Benson III returns for no gain to the ARMY 26
92.9%
0.0
ARMY · Drive 8PUNT · 7 plays · 17 yds
Q2 11:11
Noah Short run for no gain to the ARMY 26
91.9%
-1.0
Q2 10:25
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 28
92.2%
+0.3
Q2 9:58
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Samari Howard for 13 yds to the ARMY 41 for a 1ST down
92.2%
0.0
Q2 9:11
Briggs Bartosh run for 8 yds to the ARMY 49
92.2%
0.0
Q2 8:30
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line
91.9%
-0.3
Q2 7:58
Dewayne Coleman sacked by Samuel Dankah for a loss of 7 yards to the ARMY 43
91.9%
0.0
Q2 7:19
James Wagenseller punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 12
92.2%
+0.3
ECU · Drive 9INT · 10 plays · 61 yds
Q2 6:59
Jaquaize Pettaway run for 1 yd to the ECU 13
94.8%
+2.6
Q2 6:36
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 19 yds to the ECU 32 for a 1ST down
94.8%
0.0
Q2 6:16
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 11 yds to the ECU 43 for a 1ST down
94.8%
0.0
Q2 5:55
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaquaize Pettaway for 6 yds to the ECU 49
94.9%
+0.1
Q2 5:40
Katin Houser pass incomplete
94.9%
0.0
Q2 5:24
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 13 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST down
94.9%
0.0
Q2 5:05
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 6 yds to the ARMY 32
95.0%
+0.1
Q2 4:44
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST down
95.0%
0.0
Q2 4:30
London Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 27
95.0%
0.0
Q2 3:58
Katin Houser pass intercepted Stephen Nnadozie return for 2 yds to the ARMY 19
95.0%
0.0
ARMY · Drive 10DOWNS · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q2 3:41
Coleman, Dewayne pass complete to Short, Noah for 25 yards to the ARMY44, PENALTY ARMY illegal touching 0 yards to the ARMY19, NO PLAY.
93.6%
-1.4
Q2 3:15
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARMY 22
93.6%
0.0
Q2 2:45
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the ARMY 28
93.6%
0.0
Q2 2:07
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 27
93.6%
0.0
ECU · Drive 11FUMBLE · 10 plays · 9 yds
Q2 2:00
Parker Jenkins run for 5 yds to the ARMY 22
94.8%
+1.2
Q2 1:54
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the ARMY 18
94.8%
0.0
Q2 1:35
Army Penalty, Defensive Holding (9 Yards) to the ARMY 9 for a 1ST down
94.8%
0.0
Q2 1:30
Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the ARMY 7
94.8%
0.0
Q2 1:29
Timeout Army, clock 01:29
94.8%
0.0
Q2 1:23
Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 10
94.8%
0.0
Q2 1:22
Timeout Army, clock 01:22
94.8%
0.0
Q2 1:15
Houser, Katin rush for no gain to the ARMY10, PENALTY ARMY personal foul off-setting, PENALTY EASTCRLINA Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.
94.8%
0.0
Q2 0:45
Parker Jenkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 7
94.8%
0.0
Q2 0:37
Katin Houser run for a loss of 11 yards to the ARMY 18 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by ARMY Eric Ford
94.8%
0.0
ARMY · Drive 12END OF HALF · 3 plays · 9 yds
Q2 0:32
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete
93.8%
-1.1
Q2 0:31
Timeout East Carolina, clock 00:31
93.6%
-0.2
Q2 0:22
Dewayne Coleman run for 9 yds to the ARMY 27
93.4%
-0.1
ARMY · Drive 13TD · 9 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Everett Scott kickoff for 64 yds for a touchback
93.9%
+0.5
Q3 14:49
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26
93.7%
-0.2
Q3 14:20
Dewayne Coleman run for 8 yds to the ARMY 34
93.7%
0.0
Q3 13:51
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST down
93.7%
0.0
Q3 13:02
Noah Short run for 60 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST down
93.6%
-0.1
Q3 12:28
Dewayne Coleman run for no gain to the ECU 4
93.4%
-0.2
Q3 11:45
Noah Short run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 5
93.5%
+0.1
Q3 11:11
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ECU 2
93.5%
0.0
Q3 10:32
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
87.7%
-5.8
ECU · Drive 14DOWNS · 8 plays · 33 yds
Q3 10:32
Anderson Britton kickoff for 54 yds for a touchback
88.4%
+0.6
Q3 10:12
Parker Jenkins run for 1 yd to the ECU 26
89.0%
+0.6
Q3 9:59
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the ECU 30
89.0%
0.0
Q3 9:30
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
89.0%
0.0
Q3 9:11
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 2 yds to the ARMY 48
89.1%
+0.1
Q3 8:44
Parker Jenkins run for 5 yds to the ARMY 43
89.1%
0.0
Q3 8:20
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the ARMY 42
89.1%
0.0
Q3 7:48
Katin Houser pass incomplete
89.5%
+0.5
ARMY · Drive 15DOWNS · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q3 7:25
Samari Howard run for no gain to the ARMY 42
88.6%
-0.9
Q3 7:08
Noah Short run for 4 yds to the ARMY 46
88.6%
0.0
Q3 6:23
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the ECU 49
88.8%
+0.2
Q3 5:45
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line
88.9%
+0.1
ECU · Drive 16DOWNS · 7 plays · 34 yds
Q3 5:20
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the ARMY 43
90.9%
+2.0
Q3 5:10
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ARMY 37 for a 1ST down
90.9%
0.0
Q3 4:59
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 12 yds to the ARMY 25 for a 1ST down
90.9%
0.0
Q3 4:44
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 9 yds to the ARMY 16
90.9%
0.0
Q3 4:25
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 18
90.9%
0.0
Q3 3:50
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ARMY 16
91.3%
+0.4
Q3 3:10
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ARMY 16
91.3%
0.0
ARMY · Drive 17PUNT · 5 plays · 12 yds
Q3 3:02
Dewayne Coleman run for 10 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST down
89.2%
-2.1
Q3 2:44
Briggs Bartosh run for 2 yds to the ARMY 28
89.2%
0.0
Q3 1:55
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARMY 31
91.0%
+1.8
Q3 1:17
Noah Short run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 28
91.0%
0.0
Q3 1:02
James Wagenseller punt for 71 yds, downed at the ECU 1
91.0%
0.0
ECU · Drive 18PUNT · 7 plays · 9 yds
Q3 0:45
London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 5
91.4%
+0.4
Q3 0:20
London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ECU 7
91.4%
0.0
Q4 14:52
London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECU 12 for a 1ST down
91.4%
0.0
Q4 14:10
Katin Houser sacked by Gavin Shields for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 4
91.4%
0.0
Q4 13:59
Katin Houser pass incomplete
91.4%
0.0
Q4 13:45
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ECU 10
91.4%
0.0
Q4 13:10
Ryan Leavy punt for 32 yds, downed at the ECU 42
91.4%
0.0
ARMY · Drive 19DOWNS · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q4 12:54
Dewayne Coleman run for no gain to the ECU 42
91.3%
-0.1
Q4 12:34
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for no gain to the ECU 42
91.3%
0.0
Q4 11:40
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 44
91.3%
0.0
Q4 10:36
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 11 yds to the ECU 33
91.3%
0.0
ECU · Drive 20TD · 8 plays · 67 yds
Q4 10:27
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 7 yds to the ECU 40
91.8%
+0.5
Q4 10:10
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST down
91.8%
0.0
Q4 9:55
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 15 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST down
91.7%
-0.1
Q4 9:20
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ARMY 36
91.7%
0.0
Q4 9:15
London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ARMY 30
91.7%
0.0
Q4 8:55
London Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 32
91.7%
0.0
Q4 8:22
Timeout East Carolina, clock 08:22
91.8%
+0.1
Q4 8:14
Kyler Pearson run for 32 yds for a TD (Nick Mazzie KICK)
95.2%
+3.5
ARMY · Drive 21DOWNS · 16 plays · 58 yds
Q4 8:14
Everett Scott kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
95.2%
0.0
Q4 7:59
Cale Hellums run for 21 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST down
94.3%
-0.9
Q4 7:20
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ARMY 48
94.3%
0.0
Q4 6:55
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ECU 49
94.3%
0.0
Q4 6:22
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ECU 47
94.3%
0.0
Q4 5:38
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST down
94.3%
0.0
Q4 5:22
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ECU 43
94.4%
+0.1
Q4 4:44
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the ECU 42
94.5%
+0.1
Q4 4:07
Cale Hellums pass incomplete
94.5%
0.0
Q4 3:43
Cale Hellums pass complete to Samari Howard for 13 yds to the ECU 29 for a 1ST down
94.5%
0.0
Q4 3:33
Cale Hellums run for 8 yds to the ECU 21
94.5%
0.0
Q4 2:50
Briggs Bartosh run for 3 yds to the ECU 18 for a 1ST down
94.5%
0.0
Q4 2:22
Briggs Bartosh run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 19
94.5%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ECU 18
94.4%
-0.1
Q4 1:47
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ECU 17
94.4%
0.0
Q4 1:15
Cale Hellums pass incomplete
94.4%
0.0
ECU · Drive 22END OF GAME · 2 plays · 2 yds
Q4 0:58
Mike Wright Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 19
95.5%
+1.1
Q4 0:20
TEAM run for no gain to the ECU 19
95.5%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 12:07
Everett Scott kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-14.2
TD · Q1 12:05
Katin Houser 3 Yd Run (Nick Mazzie Kick)
+11.9
KEY PLAY · Q1 11:46
Noah Short run for 5 yds to the ARMY 30
+10