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UNT

North Texas 45 at Army 38

ARMY
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:21 · Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Makenzie McGill II
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense−10.4Score differential−4.3Pregame prior−7.6Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:07: Hayden Reed run for 37 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:27: Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +25.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 9:03: Caleb Hawkins run for 21 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +15.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:56: Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 68 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK) — ARMY win probability +28.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:09: Dawson Jones 23 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +34.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 11:21UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.8%−2.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:52UNT 4th & 8 at ARMY 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    68.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:42ARMY 4th & 1 at UNT 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.8%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q3 9:12UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.5%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:25UNT 4th & 4 at ARMY 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−9.9
    average punt
  6. Q4 7:42ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.5%
    average punt
  7. Q4 6:11ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.4%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 3:35UNT 4th & 5 at ARMY 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:56ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:09ARMY 4th & 6 at UNT 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−14.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−36.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:22UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:21UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:24UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:14ARMY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:35UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:37ARMY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:07ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:27ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:03UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:56ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:3161% → 62%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
39.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 5 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
39.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
39.6%
Drew Mestemaker run for 4 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
39.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
39.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Jayden Becks for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
50
+9
39.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 9 yds to the ARMY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
40.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 10 yds to the ARMY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
40.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
40.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+13
40.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 13 yds to the ARMY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
40.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 15 yds North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre Williams III) to the ARMY 23Similar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 18
OPP 23
+6
40.4%
Caleb Hawkins run for 6 yds to the ARMY 17Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-5
40.4%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Coleman,Miles) 5 yards from Army17 to Army22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+18
40.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 18 yds to the ARMY 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
38.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FUMBLE
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0839% → 40%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.9%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
38.9%
Noah Short run for 8 yds to the ARMY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
39.0%
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
39.5%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
39.4%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ARMY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
39.6%
Noah Short run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARMY 44 Noah Short fumbled, recovered by UNT Keviyan HuddlestonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:3463% → 67%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
37.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 28 yds to the ARMY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
37.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 6 yds to the ARMY 10Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+4
37.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the ARMY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams IIISimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
33.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0934% → 34%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.9%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
33.8%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
34.0%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the ARMY 18 Cale Hellums fumbled, recovered by UNT Will Jones IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:2168% → 76%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
32.2%
Caleb Hawkins run for 11 yds to the ARMY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
32.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q1 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
24.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
33.3%
Briggs Bartosh run for 75 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7DOWNS
17 plays · 64 yds · 6:1768% → 72%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
32.4%
Jayden Becks run for 3 yds to the UNT 5Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+5
32.4%
Drew Mestemaker run for 5 yds to the UNT 10Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+3
32.6%
Jayden Becks run for 3 yds to the UNT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
32.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 12 yds to the UNT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
32.0%
Jayden Becks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
32.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 11 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
32.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
31.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.5%
Jayden Becks run for 5 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
31.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 4 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
29.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Makenzie McGill IISimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
28.7%
Drew Mestemaker run for 6 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
28.3%
Jayden Becks run for no gain to the ARMY 30Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-10
28.4%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass complete short left to Coleman,Miles caught at Army25, for 15 yards to the Army15 (Mayes,Jaydan) PENALTY UNT Holding (Nelson,Braydon) 10 yards from Army30 to Army40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+6
27.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 6 yds to the ARMY 34Similar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
28.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1029% → 28%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
29.2%
Hayden Reed run for no gain to the ARMY 34Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
28.8%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ARMY 35Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-35
27.8%
Cale Hellums pass intercepted Da'Veawn Armstead return for 35 yds to the ARMY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:4274% → 84%
Q2 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
26.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 9 yds to the ARMY 1Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
26.2%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Day,Ethan) 5 yards from Army01 to Army06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
15.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5020% → 27%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.6%
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
19.1%
Noah Short run for 6 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
19.3%
Briggs Bartosh run for 10 yds to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
19.5%
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
19.2%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 49Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
19.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
18.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
18.8%
Briggs Bartosh run for 5 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+10
19.0%
Hayden Reed run for 10 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
19.2%
Noah Short run for 8 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+2
19.0%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
18.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
26.6%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Samari Howard for 17 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11END OF HALF
11 plays · 63 yds · 0:3277% → 84%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
22.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 13 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
21.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 7 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
20.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
50
0
20.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron DornerSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
50
+12
20.2%
Caleb Hawkins run for 12 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
17.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 7 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+19
16.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 19 yds to the ARMY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4524% → 37%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.8%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
24.4%
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
24.3%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 37Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
22.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for 12 yds to the ARMY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
24.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 10 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
24.0%
Briggs Bartosh run for 4 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+37
37.1%
Hayden Reed run for 37 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:3569% → 74%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
31.3%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Dickson III,Johnny) 5 yards from UNT28 to UNT23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+5
32.1%
Drew Mestemaker run for 5 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
32.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 2 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
32.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 7 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+18
31.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 18 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
28.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
28.6%
Makenzie McGill II run for 8 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
28.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 5 yds to the ARMY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
27.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 21 yds to the ARMY 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
26.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+6
26.7%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the ARMY 5Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
27.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Brandon Young Jr.Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
26.0%
Kali Nguma 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 9:5125% → 50%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.0%
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
26.0%
Carson Smith run for 4 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
25.6%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
25.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for 7 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
25.5%
Briggs Bartosh run for 3 yds to the ARMY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
26.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
26.3%
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
25.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
25.6%
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the UNT 41Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+9
25.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 9 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
26.8%
Briggs Bartosh run for no gain to the UNT 32Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
26.6%
(14:59) Short,Noah rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNT27 (Fields,Trey) PENALTY UNT Offside (Scott,Zhaiylen) 5 yards from UNT32 to UNT27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
26.7%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the UNT 23Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
24.6%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
25.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+8
25.6%
Dewayne Coleman run for 8 yds to the UNT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
24.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the UNT 5Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1366% → 87%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
34.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd to the UNT 41Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+17
31.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 17 yds to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
30.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds to the ARMY 35Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+6
28.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the ARMY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
28.0%
Caleb Hawkins run for 8 yds to the ARMY 21Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+21
12.7%
Caleb Hawkins run for 21 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4315% → 13%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.3%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
14.2%
Dewayne Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
13.3%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
13.6%
Dewayne Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.9%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
14.2%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Hayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 35Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
11.3%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 10 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-1
12.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 19 yds · 2:2890% → 91%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
10.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 9 yds to the ARMY 35Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
8.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 4 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
9.4%
Caleb Hawkins run for 5 yds to the ARMY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
8.6%
Caleb Hawkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-4
7.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Sides) to the ARMY 35Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+6
8.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 5
OPP 29
0
8.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for no gain to the ARMY 29Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+4
8.7%
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the ARMY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:356% → 33%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
5.7%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Samari Howard for 4 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
5.2%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
4.9%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Hayden Reed for 3 yds Hayden Reed fumbled, recovered by ARMYSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+68
33.4%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 68 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
17.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the ARMY 44 Makenzie McGill II fumbled, recovered by UNT Kalib FortnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 2:3537% → 64%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
36.6%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
36.7%
Noah Short run for 5 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+7
32.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 7 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
32.5%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+2
36.9%
Noah Short run for 2 yds to the UNT 37Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+7
35.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 7 yds to the UNT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
37.7%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+9
37.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for 9 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
37.7%
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the UNT 12Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+6
37.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the UNT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.1%
Dewayne Coleman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
32.8%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Brady AndersonSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
29.2%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
63.9%
Dawson Jones 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
48.8%
D. Mestemaker takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-48.8
FG · Q4 0:09
Dawson Jones 23 yd FG GOOD
+34.7
TD · Q4 2:56
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 68 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
+28.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com