UNT
North Texas 45 at Army 38
ARMY2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey play
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UNT · Drive 1TD · 17 plays · 75 yds
Q1 15:00
Anderson Britton kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
50.5%
0.0
Q1 14:53
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the UNT 30
47.5%
-3.0
Q1 14:09
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 5 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST down
46.9%
-0.6
Q1 13:52
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the UNT 39
46.9%
0.0
Q1 13:18
Drew Mestemaker run for 4 yds to the UNT 43
45.8%
-1.1
Q1 12:37
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST down
45.5%
-0.3
Q1 11:54
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Jayden Becks for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
44.9%
-0.5
Q1 11:33
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 9 yds to the ARMY 41 for a 1ST down
44.4%
-0.5
Q1 11:05
Makenzie McGill II run for 10 yds to the ARMY 31 for a 1ST down
44.3%
-0.1
Q1 10:44
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the ARMY 28
44.3%
0.0
Q1 10:16
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Simeon Evans
44.3%
0.0
Q1 10:02
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 13 yds to the ARMY 15 for a 1ST down
44.3%
0.0
Q1 9:33
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 15 yds North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre Williams III) to the ARMY 23
44.3%
0.0
Q1 9:14
Caleb Hawkins run for 6 yds to the ARMY 17
44.4%
+0.1
Q1 9:01
PENALTY UNT False Start (Coleman,Miles) 5 yards from Army17 to Army22. NO PLAY.
44.4%
0.0
Q1 8:32
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 18 yds to the ARMY 4 for a 1ST down
44.2%
-0.2
Q1 8:22
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
29.4%
-14.8
ARMY · Drive 2FUMBLE · 7 plays · 19 yds
Q1 8:22
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
30.9%
+1.5
Q1 8:14
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 29
34.5%
+3.6
Q1 7:42
Noah Short run for 8 yds to the ARMY 37 for a 1ST down
34.5%
0.0
Q1 7:00
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the ARMY 42
34.5%
0.0
Q1 6:25
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ARMY 45
35.3%
+0.8
Q1 5:43
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the ARMY 48 for a 1ST down
35.1%
-0.2
Q1 5:06
Noah Short run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARMY 44 Noah Short fumbled, recovered by UNT Keviyan Huddleston
35.9%
+0.8
UNT · Drive 3TD · 5 plays · 44 yds
Q1 4:55
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 28 yds to the ARMY 16 for a 1ST down
29.8%
-6.2
Q1 4:20
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 6 yds to the ARMY 10
29.6%
-0.1
Q1 3:51
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the ARMY 6 for a 1ST down
29.6%
0.0
Q1 3:27
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Tre Williams III
29.6%
0.0
Q1 3:21
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
19.8%
-9.8
ARMY · Drive 4FUMBLE · 4 plays · 13 yds
Q1 3:21
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds
20.9%
+1.0
Q1 3:12
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the ARMY 29
20.2%
-0.7
Q1 2:42
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 33
20.2%
0.0
Q1 2:03
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the ARMY 18 Cale Hellums fumbled, recovered by UNT Will Jones II
20.2%
+0.1
UNT · Drive 5TD · 3 plays · 18 yds
Q1 1:45
Caleb Hawkins run for 11 yds to the ARMY 7 for a 1ST down
20.0%
-0.2
Q1 1:29
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles Coleman
20.0%
0.0
Q1 1:24
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
13.1%
-7.0
ARMY · Drive 6TD · 2 plays · 75 yds
Q1 1:24
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
13.6%
+0.6
Q1 1:14
Briggs Bartosh run for 75 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
20.2%
+6.6
UNT · Drive 7DOWNS · 17 plays · 64 yds
Q1 1:07
Anderson Britton kickoff for 63 yds
20.2%
0.0
Q1 0:09
Jayden Becks run for 3 yds to the UNT 5
21.2%
+0.9
Q1 0:09
Drew Mestemaker run for 5 yds to the UNT 10
21.2%
0.0
Q1 0:00
Jayden Becks run for 3 yds to the UNT 13 for a 1ST down
21.2%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 12 yds to the UNT 25 for a 1ST down
21.2%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Jayden Becks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 23
21.2%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 11 yds to the UNT 34
21.2%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST down
21.2%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt Young
20.4%
-0.8
Q2 15:00
Jayden Becks run for 5 yds to the UNT 45
20.4%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 4 yds to the UNT 49
20.4%
0.0
Q2 11:21
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Makenzie McGill II
18.5%
-1.8
Q2 11:15
Drew Mestemaker run for 6 yds to the ARMY 30
18.1%
-0.5
Q2 10:42
Jayden Becks run for no gain to the ARMY 30
16.7%
-1.3
Q2 9:59
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass complete short left to Coleman,Miles caught at Army25, for 15 yards to the Army15 (Mayes,Jaydan) PENALTY UNT Holding (Nelson,Braydon) 10 yards from Army30 to Army40. NO PLAY.
16.7%
0.0
Q2 9:28
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 6 yds to the ARMY 34
15.9%
-0.8
Q2 8:52
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles Coleman
16.3%
+0.4
ARMY · Drive 8INT · 3 plays · 1 yds
Q2 8:45
Hayden Reed run for no gain to the ARMY 34
19.5%
+3.1
Q2 8:15
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd to the ARMY 35
19.5%
0.0
Q2 7:35
Cale Hellums pass intercepted Da'Veawn Armstead return for 35 yds to the ARMY 10
18.2%
-1.3
UNT · Drive 9TD · 3 plays · 10 yds
Q2 7:17
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 9 yds to the ARMY 1
15.8%
-2.4
Q2 6:58
PENALTY UNT False Start (Day,Ethan) 5 yards from Army01 to Army06. NO PLAY.
15.8%
0.0
Q2 6:35
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
11.8%
-4.0
ARMY · Drive 10TD · 16 plays · 75 yds
Q2 6:35
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
12.4%
+0.5
Q2 6:27
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26
10.1%
-2.3
Q2 5:51
Noah Short run for 6 yds to the ARMY 32
10.1%
0.0
Q2 5:08
Briggs Bartosh run for 10 yds to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST down
10.0%
-0.1
Q2 4:31
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the ARMY 45
10.4%
+0.4
Q2 3:55
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 49
10.4%
0.0
Q2 3:19
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UNT 49
10.4%
0.0
Q2 2:42
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST down
10.6%
+0.2
Q2 2:00
Timeout Army, clock 02:00
11.1%
+0.5
Q2 1:59
Briggs Bartosh run for 5 yds to the UNT 42
11.1%
0.0
Q2 1:54
Hayden Reed run for 10 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST down
11.1%
0.0
Q2 1:38
Noah Short run for 8 yds to the UNT 24
11.1%
0.0
Q2 1:08
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the UNT 22 for a 1ST down
10.8%
-0.3
Q2 0:45
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the UNT 17
10.8%
0.0
Q2 0:45
Timeout Army, clock 00:45
10.8%
0.0
Q2 0:37
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Samari Howard for 17 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
18.4%
+1.9
UNT · Drive 11END OF HALF · 11 plays · 63 yds
Q2 0:39
Anderson Britton kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
16.6%
+5.7
Q2 0:32
Makenzie McGill II run for 13 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST down
14.5%
-3.9
Q2 0:26
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 7 yds to the UNT 45
13.4%
-1.1
Q2 0:22
Timeout North Texas, clock 00:22
13.4%
0.0
Q2 0:20
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
13.4%
0.0
Q2 0:19
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron Dorner
13.4%
0.0
Q2 0:13
Caleb Hawkins run for 12 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST down
13.4%
0.0
Q2 0:13
Timeout North Texas, clock 00:13
14.2%
+0.8
Q2 0:06
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 7 yds to the ARMY 31
14.2%
0.0
Q2 0:06
Timeout North Texas, clock 00:06
14.3%
+0.1
Q2 0:00
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 19 yds to the ARMY 12 for a 1ST down
14.3%
0.0
ARMY · Drive 12TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14.3%
0.0
Q3 14:52
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the ARMY 31
16.4%
+2.1
Q3 14:20
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST down
16.4%
0.0
Q3 13:41
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 37
16.4%
0.0
Q3 12:53
Dewayne Coleman run for 12 yds to the ARMY 49 for a 1ST down
16.1%
-0.3
Q3 12:18
Dewayne Coleman run for 10 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST down
16.5%
+0.4
Q3 11:35
Briggs Bartosh run for 4 yds to the UNT 37
17.9%
+1.4
Q3 11:07
Hayden Reed run for 37 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
37.1%
+19.2
UNT · Drive 13FG · 14 plays · 67 yds
Q3 11:00
Anderson Britton kickoff for 63 yds , Simeon Evans return for 26 yds to the UNT 28
34.4%
-2.8
Q3 11:00
PENALTY UNT False Start (Dickson III,Johnny) 5 yards from UNT28 to UNT23. NO PLAY.
25.9%
-8.4
Q3 10:50
Drew Mestemaker run for 5 yds to the UNT 28
25.9%
0.0
Q3 10:14
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 2 yds to the UNT 30
25.9%
0.0
Q3 9:43
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 7 yds to the UNT 37
26.4%
+0.4
Q3 9:12
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 18 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST down
25.8%
-0.6
Q3 9:02
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon Sides
25.1%
-0.7
Q3 8:56
Makenzie McGill II run for 8 yds to the ARMY 37
25.1%
0.0
Q3 8:13
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 5 yds to the ARMY 32 for a 1ST down
24.8%
-0.3
Q3 7:38
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 21 yds to the ARMY 11 for a 1ST down
24.8%
0.0
Q3 7:11
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles Coleman
24.8%
0.0
Q3 7:04
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the ARMY 5
24.8%
0.0
Q3 6:28
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Brandon Young Jr.
24.8%
0.0
Q3 6:25
Kali Nguma 23 yd FG GOOD
19.7%
-5.0
ARMY · Drive 14TD · 19 plays · 75 yds
Q3 6:25
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
20.5%
+0.8
Q3 6:18
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the ARMY 32
22.1%
+1.6
Q3 5:57
Carson Smith run for 4 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST down
22.1%
0.0
Q3 5:12
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 38
22.1%
0.0
Q3 4:37
Dewayne Coleman run for 7 yds to the ARMY 45
22.2%
+0.1
Q3 3:59
Briggs Bartosh run for 3 yds to the ARMY 48 for a 1ST down
22.3%
+0.1
Q3 3:18
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the UNT 46
21.6%
-0.7
Q3 2:40
Carson Smith run for 3 yds to the UNT 43
22.3%
+0.7
Q3 2:02
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the UNT 42 for a 1ST down
23.3%
+1.0
Q3 1:15
Briggs Bartosh run for 1 yd to the UNT 41
21.4%
-1.9
Q3 0:36
Dewayne Coleman run for 9 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST down
21.4%
0.0
Q3 0:00
Briggs Bartosh run for no gain to the UNT 32
21.4%
0.0
Q4 14:55
(14:59) Short,Noah rush right for 5 yards gain to the UNT27 (Fields,Trey) PENALTY UNT Offside (Scott,Zhaiylen) 5 yards from UNT32 to UNT27. NO PLAY.
21.4%
0.0
Q4 14:39
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the UNT 23
21.4%
0.0
Q4 14:03
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the UNT 21 for a 1ST down
21.4%
0.0
Q4 13:26
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the UNT 18
21.4%
0.0
Q4 12:42
Dewayne Coleman run for 8 yds to the UNT 10 for a 1ST down
21.4%
0.0
Q4 11:58
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the UNT 5
21.1%
-0.3
Q4 11:27
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
47.6%
+26.5
UNT · Drive 15TD · 7 plays · 60 yds
Q4 11:25
Anderson Britton kickoff for 33 yds , Miles Coleman return for 8 yds to the UNT 40
44.3%
-3.2
Q4 11:16
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd to the UNT 41
34.4%
-9.9
Q4 10:25
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 17 yds to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST down
33.2%
-1.2
Q4 10:14
Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds to the ARMY 35
32.9%
-0.4
Q4 9:54
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the ARMY 29 for a 1ST down
32.8%
-0.1
Q4 9:34
Caleb Hawkins run for 8 yds to the ARMY 21
32.7%
-0.1
Q4 9:03
Caleb Hawkins run for 21 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
14.0%
-18.7
ARMY · Drive 16DOWNS · 9 plays · 19 yds
Q4 9:03
Kali Nguma kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14.9%
+0.9
Q4 8:54
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26
16.7%
+1.8
Q4 8:24
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete
15.5%
-1.2
Q4 8:16
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the ARMY 32
15.5%
0.0
Q4 7:42
Dewayne Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST down
15.5%
0.0
Q4 7:14
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah Short
15.5%
0.0
Q4 6:57
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Hayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 35
15.5%
0.0
Q4 6:16
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 10 yds to the ARMY 45
15.5%
0.0
Q4 6:11
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 44
15.8%
+0.4
UNT · Drive 17DOWNS · 11 plays · 19 yds
Q4 6:03
Caleb Hawkins run for 9 yds to the ARMY 35
12.8%
-3.0
Q4 5:18
Timeout Army, clock 05:18
11.2%
-1.6
Q4 5:16
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 4 yds to the ARMY 39
11.2%
0.0
Q4 5:11
Caleb Hawkins run for 5 yds to the ARMY 34 for a 1ST down
11.2%
0.0
Q4 4:33
Caleb Hawkins run for 3 yds to the ARMY 31
11.0%
-0.2
Q4 4:33
Timeout Army, clock 04:33
11.0%
0.0
Q4 4:27
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Sides) to the ARMY 35
11.0%
0.0
Q4 4:20
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the ARMY 29
10.9%
-0.1
Q4 4:20
Timeout Army, clock 04:20
10.9%
0.0
Q4 4:12
Makenzie McGill II run for no gain to the ARMY 29
10.9%
0.0
Q4 3:35
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the ARMY 25
10.9%
0.0
ARMY · Drive 18TD · 4 plays · 75 yds
Q4 3:31
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Samari Howard for 4 yds to the ARMY 29
11.4%
+0.5
Q4 3:22
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah Short
11.4%
0.0
Q4 3:13
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Hayden Reed for 3 yds Hayden Reed fumbled, recovered by ARMY
11.4%
0.0
Q4 2:56
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 68 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
39.3%
+27.9
UNT · Drive 19FUMBLE · 2 plays · 3 yds
Q4 2:54
Anderson Britton kickoff for 12 yds
39.3%
0.0
Q4 2:49
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the ARMY 44 Makenzie McGill II fumbled, recovered by UNT Kalib Fortner
24.7%
-14.5
ARMY · Drive 20FG · 16 plays · 50 yds
Q4 2:44
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 46
36.7%
+12.0
Q4 2:23
Noah Short run for 5 yds to the UNT 49
32.9%
-3.8
Q4 2:00
Timeout Army, clock 02:00
40.1%
+7.2
Q4 1:59
Dewayne Coleman run for 7 yds to the UNT 42 for a 1ST down
35.3%
-4.8
Q4 1:53
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the UNT 39
38.9%
+3.6
Q4 1:34
Timeout North Texas, clock 01:34
41.6%
+2.7
Q4 1:33
Noah Short run for 2 yds to the UNT 37
41.6%
0.0
Q4 1:29
Dewayne Coleman run for 7 yds to the UNT 30 for a 1ST down
41.6%
0.0
Q4 1:14
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the UNT 28
40.1%
-1.4
Q4 0:48
Dewayne Coleman run for 9 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST down
37.6%
-2.5
Q4 0:40
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the UNT 12
36.6%
-1.1
Q4 0:27
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the UNT 6 for a 1ST down
33.0%
-3.6
Q4 0:24
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete
31.9%
-1.1
Q4 0:18
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Brady Anderson
31.9%
0.0
Q4 0:12
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah Short
31.9%
0.0
Q4 0:09
Dawson Jones 23 yd FG GOOD
66.8%
+34.9
UNT · Drive 21END OF GAME · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q4 0:05
Anderson Britton kickoff for 50 yds , Miles Coleman return for 5 yds to the UNT 20
65.3%
-1.4
Q4 0:00
D. Mestemaker takes a knee
55.4%
-10.0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:09
Dawson Jones 23 yd FG GOOD
+34.9
TD · Q4 2:56
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 68 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
+27.9
TD · Q4 11:27
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
+26.5