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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:44 · Bronson Long punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:23: Liam Boyd 40 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +4.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:18: Chase Jenkins run for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +15.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:33: Daelen Alexander run for 13 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +8.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:31: Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — RICE win probability +20.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:27: Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 31 yds for a TD (Grayson Loftis pass to Javen Nicholas for Two-Point Conversion) — CLT win probability +10.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 8:51CLT 4th & 2 at RICE 12, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snapGo for it48.8%56% to convertField goalTheir call48.7%−0.186% to makePunt47.7%−1.1average punt
- Q1 3:02CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snapGo for it47.1%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.3%average punt
- Q1 1:04RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 25, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snapGo for it51.4%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.1%average punt
- Q2 14:49CLT 4th & 10 at RICE 45, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.330% to convertField goal46.3%−0.725% to makePuntTheir call47.0%average punt
- Q2 12:53RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 17, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 51.8% before the snapGo for it52.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%−1.1average punt
- Q2 7:55CLT 4th & 7 at RICE 8, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.1% before the snapGo for it46.4%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call46.7%90% to makePunt40.8%−5.9average punt
- Q2 5:57RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 29, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snapGo for it50.6%−0.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%average punt
- Q2 2:23CLT 4th & 3 at RICE 23, down 1Close callKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snapGo for it50.0%52% to convertField goalTheir call49.5%−0.570% to makePunt44.3%−5.6average punt
- Q2 0:00CLT 4th & 5 at RICE 24, down 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.8% before the snapGo for it43.2%−0.141% to convertField goalTheir call43.3%68% to makePunt34.8%−8.5average punt
- Q3 10:10CLT 4th & 27 at CLT 8, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snapGo for it24.1%−3.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.4%average punt
- Q3 6:49RICE 4th & 22 at CLT 37, up 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snapGo for it75.3%−2.88% to convertField goalTheir call78.1%40% to makePunt77.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 5:33CLT 4th & 18 at CLT 29, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it21.7%−2.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.6%average punt
- Q3 2:47RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 28, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it81.0%−1.039% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q3 0:15CLT 4th & 7 at RICE 37, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.3%37% to convertField goal20.6%−0.740% to makePunt20.3%−1.0average punt
- Q4 4:39RICE 4th & 12 at RICE 34, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it89.2%−1.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q4 3:44CLT 4th & 18 at CLT 17, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.812% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q4 1:46RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 47, up 11Close callPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it95.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:25RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.6%97% to makeGo for two52.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:18RICE Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.6%97% to makeGo for two56.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:33RICE Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.3%97% to makeGo for two71.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:27CLT Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick8.2%−0.297% to makeGo for twoTheir call8.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1FG16 plays · 63 yds · 5:5340% → 43%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 5 yds to the CLT 30Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
40.0%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 4 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+10
40.8%
Harrell, Conner pass incomplete to Mason, E. Jai, PENALTY RICE holding (Crump, Khary) 10 yards to the RICE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
41.1%
Harrell, Conner pass incomplete to Burris, Miles, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Crump, Khary) 12 yards to the RICE36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+17
41.3%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Sean Brown for 17 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
42.0%
Harrell, Conner pass complete to Nicholas, Javen for 5 yards to the RICE15, PENALTY CHARLOTTE holding (Brown, Sean) 10 yards to the RICE30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+11
41.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to CJ Stokes for 11 yds to the RICE 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5557% → 60%
CLTDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1141% → 41%
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
41.1%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 6 yds to the CLT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3659% → 57%
Q1 1:04
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
42.6%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:0943% → 41%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
42.7%
Harrell, Conner pass incomplete to Nicholas, Javen, PENALTY RICE personal foul (Porter, Omari) 15 yards to the RICE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-1
43.3%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 45Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
41.4%
Bronson Long punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4258% → 57%
Q2 12:53
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
42.8%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7FG13 plays · 64 yds · 4:2742% → 45%
Q2 11:42
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+20
41.2%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Gus McGee for 20 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
44.1%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 11 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-12
44.5%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 12 yards to the RICE 48 CJ Stokes fumbled, forced by Marcus Williams, recovered by CLT Javen NicholasSimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+15
45.4%
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Mason, E. Jai, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Crump, Khary) 15 yards to the RICE11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
44.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Rod Gainey Jr. for 1 yd to the RICE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4757% → 56%
Q2 5:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
44.5%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9FG9 plays · 45 yds · 3:0045% → 52%
RICEDrive 10TD8 plays · 75 yds · 0:5250% → 68%
CLTDrive 11DOWNS8 plays · 51 yds · 1:1036% → 36%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.1%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 9 yds to the CLT 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0264% → 77%
Q3 13:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
34.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 5 yds to the RICE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
33.7%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 3 yds to the RICE 44Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+37
33.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 37 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -17 yds · 1:1526% → 24%
Q3 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
25.9%
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Nicholas, Javen, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference (Nicholas, Javen) 13 yards to the CHARLOTTE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-5
24.8%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Michael Daley for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 8Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 27
OWN 8
0
24.4%
Bronson Long punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14MISSED FG8 plays · 21 yds · 3:0978% → 78%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
20.3%
Jenkins, Chase pass complete to Turner, Aaron for 6 yards to the CHARLOTTE19, PENALTY RICE holding (Barnett, Micah) 10 yards to the CHARLOTTE35, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1625% → 22%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+2
23.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 2 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-5
22.4%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Michael Daley and Aquantis Clemmons for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 29Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
21.6%
Bronson Long punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1180% → 82%
Q3 2:47
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+26
18.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 53 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 26 yds to the CLT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17FUMBLE7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1321% → 23%
Q3 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+11
21.8%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 11 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-3
23.9%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Tony Anyanwu for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 37Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+11
19.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 11 yds to the RICE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-17
23.2%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Ty Morris for a loss of 17 yards to the RICE 43 Grayson Loftis fumbled, forced by Ty Morris, recovered by RICE Tony Anyanwu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD12 plays · 75 yds · 2:395% → 15%
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
4.7%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 9 yds to the CLT 46Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+15
4.8%
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Brown, Sean, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Crump, Khary) 15 yards to the RICE31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
15.3%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 31 yds for a TD (Grayson Loftis pass to Javen Nicholas for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 9 yds · 2:4089% → 91%
CLTDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 0:519% → 7%
RICEDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4694% → 96%
Q4 1:46
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+16
4.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 49 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 16 yds to the CLT 37 Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the CLT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22END OF GAME12 plays · 69 yds · 1:374% → 6%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
4.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 19 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-7
4.3%
Grayson Loftis sacked by Tony Anyanwu for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 17Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 22
OWN 17
+9
4.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Ta'ir Brooks for 9 yds to the CLT 26Similar
Q4 0:54
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+17
3.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 17 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
4.2%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Cameren Smith for 4 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+18
4.4%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Miles Burris for 18 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+14
4.6%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 14 yds to the RICE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:31
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-20.1
TD · Q2 1:18
Chase Jenkins run for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
-15
TD · Q4 7:27
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 31 yds for a TD (Grayson Loftis pass to Javen Nicholas for Two-Point Conversion)
+10