RICE
Rice 28 at Charlotte 17
CLT2025 · Week 4 · Sep 18, 2025 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey play
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CLT · Drive 1FG · 16 plays · 63 yds
Q1 15:00
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
43.6%
0.0
Q1 14:44
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 5 yds to the CLT 30
46.8%
+3.2
Q1 14:00
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 4 yds to the CLT 34
46.8%
0.0
Q1 13:30
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 1 yd to the CLT 35 for a 1ST down
46.8%
0.0
Q1 13:14
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 5 yds to the CLT 40
46.8%
0.0
Q1 12:39
Conner Harrell run for 2 yds to the CLT 42
47.7%
+0.9
Q1 12:06
Harrell, Conner pass incomplete to Mason, E. Jai, PENALTY RICE holding (Crump, Khary) 10 yards to the RICE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.
47.5%
-0.3
Q1 12:00
Harrell, Conner pass incomplete to Burris, Miles, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Crump, Khary) 12 yards to the RICE36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.
48.9%
+1.4
Q1 11:55
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to E. Jai Mason
49.3%
+0.4
Q1 11:34
Rod Gainey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 37
49.3%
0.0
Q1 10:55
Conner Harrell pass complete to Sean Brown for 17 yds to the RICE 20 for a 1ST down
49.1%
-0.3
Q1 10:15
Harrell, Conner pass complete to Nicholas, Javen for 5 yards to the RICE15, PENALTY CHARLOTTE holding (Brown, Sean) 10 yards to the RICE30, NO PLAY.
49.3%
+0.3
Q1 10:00
CJ Stokes run for 7 yds to the RICE 23
49.3%
0.0
Q1 9:42
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Javen Nicholas
49.3%
0.0
Q1 9:28
Conner Harrell pass complete to CJ Stokes for 11 yds to the RICE 12
49.2%
-0.1
Q1 8:51
Liam Boyd 29 yd FG GOOD
53.9%
+4.7
RICE · Drive 2TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q1 8:51
Liam Boyd kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
52.5%
-1.4
Q1 8:20
Quinton Jackson run for 6 yds to the RICE 31
49.9%
-2.6
Q1 8:09
Quinton Jackson run for 11 yds to the RICE 42 for a 1ST down
49.9%
0.0
Q1 7:30
Aaron Turner run for 1 yd to the RICE 43
48.7%
-1.2
Q1 6:53
Quinton Jackson run for 26 yds to the CLT 31 for a 1ST down
48.7%
0.0
Q1 6:32
Daelen Alexander run for 7 yds to the CLT 24
47.0%
-1.7
Q1 5:33
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 3 yds to the CLT 21 for a 1ST down
47.4%
+0.4
Q1 5:23
Daelen Alexander run for 9 yds to the CLT 12
47.4%
0.0
Q1 4:56
Daelen Alexander run for 3 yds to the CLT 9 for a 1ST down
47.4%
0.0
Q1 4:25
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 9 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
33.5%
-13.9
CLT · Drive 3PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q1 4:25
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
35.4%
+1.9
Q1 4:13
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 1 yd to the CLT 26
40.1%
+4.7
Q1 3:42
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 6 yds to the CLT 32
40.1%
0.0
Q1 3:11
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to E. Jai Mason
40.1%
0.0
Q1 3:02
Bronson Long punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the RICE 24
40.1%
0.0
RICE · Drive 4PUNT · 4 plays · 1 yds
Q1 2:40
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the RICE 27
35.4%
-4.7
Q1 2:00
Chase Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 25
35.2%
-0.2
Q1 1:37
Landon Ransom-Goelz run for no gain to the RICE 25
35.2%
0.0
Q1 1:04
Alex Bacchetta punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 40
35.2%
0.0
CLT · Drive 5PUNT · 5 plays · 15 yds
Q1 0:58
Harrell, Conner pass incomplete to Nicholas, Javen, PENALTY RICE personal foul (Porter, Omari) 15 yards to the RICE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.
40.5%
+5.3
Q1 0:39
Conner Harrell run for 1 yd to the RICE 44
41.8%
+1.2
Q1 0:20
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 45
41.8%
0.0
Q2 14:55
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to E. Jai Mason
41.5%
-0.2
Q2 14:49
Bronson Long punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 8
41.5%
0.0
RICE · Drive 6PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q2 14:35
Daelen Alexander run for 2 yds to the RICE 10
35.2%
-6.3
Q2 13:50
Daelen Alexander run for 4 yds to the RICE 14
35.2%
0.0
Q2 13:17
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the RICE 17
35.2%
0.0
Q2 12:53
Alex Bacchetta punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 28
35.2%
0.0
CLT · Drive 7FG · 13 plays · 64 yds
Q2 12:22
Cameren Smith run for 1 yd to the CLT 29
39.9%
+4.7
Q2 12:13
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to E. Jai Mason
39.9%
0.0
Q2 11:42
Conner Harrell pass complete to Gus McGee for 20 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST down
39.7%
-0.2
Q2 11:15
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 11 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST down
40.7%
+0.9
Q2 10:42
CJ Stokes run for 4 yds to the RICE 36
42.3%
+1.6
Q2 9:50
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 12 yards to the RICE 48 CJ Stokes fumbled, forced by Marcus Williams, recovered by CLT Javen Nicholas
42.3%
0.0
Q2 9:42
Conner Harrell run for 19 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST down
41.1%
-1.2
Q2 9:18
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 3 yds to the RICE 26
42.3%
+1.2
Q2 9:13
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Mason, E. Jai, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Crump, Khary) 15 yards to the RICE11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.
42.3%
0.0
Q2 9:03
Grayson Loftis run for 2 yds to the RICE 9
42.3%
0.0
Q2 8:00
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Rod Gainey Jr. for 1 yd to the RICE 8
40.5%
-1.7
Q2 7:58
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Ta'ir Brooks
40.3%
-0.2
Q2 7:55
Liam Boyd 25 yd FG GOOD
44.2%
+2.2
RICE · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q2 7:55
Liam Boyd kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
42.0%
+1.7
Q2 7:44
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the RICE 27
36.1%
-8.1
Q2 6:59
Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the RICE 30
36.1%
0.0
Q2 6:00
Landon Ransom-Goelz run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICE 29
36.1%
0.0
Q2 5:57
Alex Bacchetta punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 32
36.1%
+0.1
CLT · Drive 9FG · 9 plays · 45 yds
Q2 5:23
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 4 yds to the CLT 36
42.1%
+6.0
Q2 5:00
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 23 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST down
42.1%
0.0
Q2 4:49
Grayson Loftis run for 3 yds to the RICE 38
45.2%
+3.1
Q2 4:00
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 8 yds to the RICE 30 for a 1ST down
45.2%
0.0
Q2 3:30
Cameren Smith run for 5 yds to the RICE 25
45.2%
0.0
Q2 2:47
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the RICE 23
45.1%
0.0
Q2 2:31
Timeout Charlotte, clock 02:31
45.0%
-0.1
Q2 2:27
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Ta'ir Brooks
45.0%
0.0
Q2 2:23
Liam Boyd 40 yd FG GOOD
55.4%
+10.4
RICE · Drive 10TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q2 2:23
Liam Boyd kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
53.9%
-1.4
Q2 2:10
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 12 yds to the RICE 37 for a 1ST down
48.2%
-5.7
Q2 2:00
Chase Jenkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 38
48.2%
0.0
Q2 1:44
Quinton Jackson run for no gain to the RICE 38
47.3%
-0.9
Q2 1:44
Timeout Charlotte, clock 01:44
47.3%
0.0
Q2 1:34
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 10 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST down
47.3%
0.0
Q2 1:25
Quinton Jackson run for 18 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST down
46.2%
-1.1
Q2 1:18
Chase Jenkins run for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
25.3%
-20.9
CLT · Drive 11DOWNS · 8 plays · 51 yds
Q2 1:18
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
26.5%
+1.2
Q2 1:10
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 9 yds to the CLT 34
32.8%
+6.3
Q2 0:43
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 37 yds to the RICE 29 for a 1ST down
32.8%
0.0
Q2 0:37
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to CJ Stokes
35.7%
+2.9
Q2 0:33
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles Burris
35.7%
0.0
Q2 0:10
Grayson Loftis run for 5 yds to the RICE 24
35.7%
0.0
Q2 0:04
Timeout Charlotte, clock 00:04
35.2%
-0.5
Q2 0:00
Liam Boyd 42 yd FG MISSED
35.2%
0.0
RICE · Drive 12TD · 8 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Liam Boyd kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
32.9%
-2.3
Q3 14:35
Chase Jenkins run for 9 yds to the RICE 34
26.5%
-6.4
Q3 13:57
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 5 yds to the RICE 39 for a 1ST down
25.8%
-0.8
Q3 13:15
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the RICE 41
24.5%
-1.3
Q3 12:49
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 3 yds to the RICE 44
24.5%
0.0
Q3 12:23
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 37 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST down
24.5%
0.0
Q3 11:40
Quinton Jackson run for 6 yds to the CLT 13
24.4%
-0.1
Q3 11:33
Daelen Alexander run for 13 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
15.1%
-9.3
CLT · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · -17 yds
Q3 11:33
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
16.0%
+0.9
Q3 11:25
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 1 yd to the CLT 26
17.5%
+1.5
Q3 10:53
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Nicholas, Javen, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference (Nicholas, Javen) 13 yards to the CHARLOTTE13, NO PLAY.
17.5%
0.0
Q3 10:48
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles Burris
17.5%
0.0
Q3 10:40
Grayson Loftis sacked by Michael Daley for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 8
17.5%
0.0
Q3 10:10
Bronson Long punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 42
17.5%
0.0
RICE · Drive 14MISSED FG · 8 plays · 21 yds
Q3 9:58
Chase Jenkins run for 23 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST down
15.1%
-2.4
Q3 9:25
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 9 yds to the CLT 26
14.4%
-0.7
Q3 9:04
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 1 yd to the CLT 25 for a 1ST down
14.4%
0.0
Q3 8:28
Jenkins, Chase pass complete to Turner, Aaron for 6 yards to the CHARLOTTE19, PENALTY RICE holding (Barnett, Micah) 10 yards to the CHARLOTTE35, NO PLAY.
14.4%
0.0
Q3 8:16
Chase Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 37
14.4%
0.0
Q3 7:34
Quinton Jackson run for no gain to the CLT 37
14.4%
0.0
Q3 6:54
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Aaron Turner
14.4%
0.0
Q3 6:49
Enock Gota 55 yd FG MISSED
14.8%
+0.4
CLT · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · -8 yds
Q3 6:49
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (Mason Bowers) to the CLT 32
15.6%
+0.8
Q3 6:20
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 2 yds to the CLT 34
15.1%
-0.5
Q3 6:15
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Gus McGee
15.1%
0.0
Q3 5:40
Grayson Loftis sacked by Michael Daley and Aquantis Clemmons for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 29
15.1%
0.0
Q3 5:33
Bronson Long punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 24
15.1%
0.0
RICE · Drive 16PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q3 4:58
Aaron Turner run for 3 yds to the RICE 27
14.8%
-0.3
Q3 4:14
Chase Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 25
14.3%
-0.6
Q3 3:30
Tyson Thompson run for 8 yds to the RICE 33
14.0%
-0.3
Q3 3:19
Rice Penalty, False Start (Luke Miller) to the RICE 28
14.0%
0.0
Q3 2:47
Alex Bacchetta punt for 53 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 26 yds to the CLT 45
14.0%
0.0
CLT · Drive 17FUMBLE · 7 plays · 12 yds
Q3 2:13
Jariel Cobb run for 4 yds to the CLT 49
14.9%
+0.9
Q3 1:50
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 11 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST down
14.9%
0.0
Q3 1:34
Jariel Cobb run for 6 yds to the RICE 34
16.6%
+1.7
Q3 1:02
Grayson Loftis sacked by Tony Anyanwu for a loss of 3 yards to the RICE 37
16.6%
0.0
Q3 0:31
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Javen Nicholas
16.6%
0.0
Q3 0:15
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 11 yds to the RICE 26 for a 1ST down
15.8%
-0.8
Q3 0:00
Grayson Loftis sacked by Ty Morris for a loss of 17 yards to the RICE 43 Grayson Loftis fumbled, forced by Ty Morris, recovered by RICE Tony Anyanwu , return for 0 yards
15.8%
0.0
CLT · Drive 18TD · 12 plays · 75 yds
Q4 10:31
Enock Gota kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
6.4%
-9.3
Q4 10:06
Cameren Smith run for 9 yds to the CLT 34
7.3%
+0.8
Q4 9:36
Cameren Smith run for 3 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST down
7.3%
0.0
Q4 9:30
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Cameren Smith
7.3%
0.0
Q4 9:08
Grayson Loftis pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 9 yds to the CLT 46
7.3%
0.0
Q4 8:35
Cameren Smith run for 6 yds to the RICE 48 for a 1ST down
7.3%
0.0
Q4 8:15
Cameren Smith run for 2 yds to the RICE 46
7.3%
0.0
Q4 7:50
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles Burris
7.3%
0.0
Q4 7:40
Loftis, Grayson pass incomplete to Brown, Sean, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Crump, Khary) 15 yards to the RICE31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CHARLOTTE.
7.3%
0.0
Q4 7:35
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Cameren Smith
7.7%
+0.4
Q4 7:33
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles Burris
7.7%
0.0
Q4 7:27
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 31 yds for a TD (Grayson Loftis pass to Javen Nicholas for Two-Point Conversion)
13.9%
+6.2
RICE · Drive 19PUNT · 9 plays · 9 yds
Q4 7:27
Liam Boyd kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
12.7%
-1.2
Q4 7:19
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 8 yds to the RICE 33
10.9%
-1.8
Q4 6:39
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 1 yd to the RICE 34
11.0%
+0.1
Q4 5:49
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for 2 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST down
10.5%
-0.4
Q4 4:56
Chase Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICE 34
10.5%
-0.1
Q4 4:48
D'Andre Hardeman Jr. run for no gain to the RICE 34
10.5%
+0.1
Q4 4:48
Timeout Charlotte, clock 04:48
9.3%
-1.2
Q4 4:46
Chase Jenkins pass incomplete to Drayden Dickmann
9.3%
0.0
Q4 4:39
Alex Bacchetta punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 25
9.3%
0.0
CLT · Drive 20PUNT · 4 plays · -8 yds
Q4 4:35
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Javen Nicholas
10.1%
+0.8
Q4 4:30
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Miles Burris
10.1%
0.0
Q4 4:21
Grayson Loftis sacked by Michael Daley for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 17
9.7%
-0.4
Q4 3:44
Bronson Long punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 39
9.7%
0.0
RICE · Drive 21PUNT · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q4 3:32
Tyvonn Byars run for 4 yds to the RICE 43
9.2%
-0.5
Q4 2:47
Tyvonn Byars run for 1 yd to the RICE 44
9.2%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Semaj Pierre run for 3 yds to the RICE 47
9.2%
0.0
Q4 1:46
Alex Bacchetta punt for 49 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 16 yds to the CLT 37 Charlotte Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the CLT 10
8.8%
-0.4
CLT · Drive 22END OF GAME · 12 plays · 69 yds
Q4 1:37
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Sean Brown for 19 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST down
9.3%
+0.5
Q4 1:37
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CLT 24
9.3%
0.0
Q4 1:11
Grayson Loftis sacked by Tony Anyanwu for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 17
9.5%
+0.1
Q4 1:00
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Ta'ir Brooks for 9 yds to the CLT 26
9.5%
0.0
Q4 1:00
Timeout Charlotte, clock 01:00
9.5%
0.0
Q4 0:54
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 17 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST down
9.5%
0.0
Q4 0:30
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Cameren Smith for 4 yds to the CLT 47
9.5%
0.0
Q4 0:23
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Miles Burris for 18 yds to the RICE 35 for a 1ST down
9.5%
0.0
Q4 0:19
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Ta'ir Brooks
9.8%
+0.4
Q4 0:13
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Gus McGee
9.8%
0.0
Q4 0:10
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 14 yds to the RICE 21 for a 1ST down
9.8%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Grayson Loftis pass incomplete to Ta'ir Brooks
10.1%
+0.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:18
Chase Jenkins run for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q1 4:25
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 9 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
-13.9
FG · Q2 2:23
Liam Boyd 40 yd FG GOOD
+10.4