2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadPV aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scorePV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:32 · Adam Atwell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:28: Chase Jenkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:47: Aaron Turner run for 52 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +1.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:56: Quinton Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:50: Enock Gota 49 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:19: Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7PV made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:32PV 4th & 6 at PV 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q1 10:29RICE 4th & 18 at RICE 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.9%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.1%average punt
- Q1 6:45RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:25PV 4th & 16 at PV 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q2 11:47RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt91.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:37PV 4th & 26 at PV 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q2 3:22PV 4th & 2 at PV 33, down 14Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it6.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:50RICE 4th & 3 at PV 31, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.4%52% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%−0.154% to makePunt93.8%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:01PV 4th & 10 at PV 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 5:27RICE 4th & 9 at PV 37, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%32% to convertField goal98.4%−<0.140% to makePunt98.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:41PV 4th & 11 at RICE 11, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.222% to convertField goalTheir call1.3%87% to makePunt0.3%−1.1average punt
- Q4 12:32RICE 4th & 8 at PV 36, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%34% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%−<0.142% to makePunt98.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:57PV 4th & 13 at RICE 39, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−0.221% to convertField goal0.9%36% to makePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 6:30RICE 4th & 1 at PV 39, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%70% to convertField goal98.9%−0.336% to makePunt98.9%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PV made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 8:34PV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.8%97% to makeGo for two5.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:28RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:47RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:56RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:19RICE Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:40RICE Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:41PV Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPVDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:233% → 4%
Q1 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
96.6%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 19 yds to the PV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+2
96.4%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 2 yds to the PV 49Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Adam Atwell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5596% → 96%
PVDrive 3TD6 plays · 63 yds · 1:454% → 5%
RICEDrive 4TD15 plays · 68 yds · 5:4795% → 95%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
95.1%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 4 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
94.3%
Chase Jenkins run for 9 yds to the PV 34 Chase Jenkins fumbled, recovered by PV Chase JenkinsSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+9
94.0%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 9 yds to the PV 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
93.5%
(02:53) PENALTY PVAM Illegal Substitution 4 yards from PVAM07 to PVAM03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 9 yds · 1:516% → 6%
Q1 1:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
93.7%
PENALTY Rice Pass Interference (Crump,Khary) 13 yards from PVAM27 to PVAM40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-5
93.6%
PENALTY PVAM False Start (Carter,CK) 5 yards from PVAM40 to PVAM35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-1
93.7%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for a loss of 1 yard to the PV 34Similar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+2
93.6%
Adam Atwell punt for 36 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 2 yds to the RICE 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1394% → 94%
PVDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -16 yds · 2:006% → 6%
Q2 10:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
94.0%
PENALTY PVAM Holding (Carter,CK) 10 yards from PVAM26 to PVAM16. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD9 plays · 49 yds · 4:3594% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:245% → 5%
Q2 3:22
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
94.9%
Adam Atwell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10FG15 plays · 48 yds · 2:1995% → 97%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
95.0%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 6 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
95.0%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 6 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
95.2%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 8 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.9%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to DAndre Hardeman Jr. for 3 yds to the PV 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 11END OF HALF5 plays · 14 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
97.1%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 9 yds to the PV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2796% → 98%
PVDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:092% → 2%
RICEDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 26 yds · 4:2298% → 99%
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+11
98.4%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 11 yds to the PV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 15FG8 plays · 52 yds · 2:362% → 2%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
98.5%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 11 yds to the PV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
98.6%
PENALTY Rice Holding (Nwajuaku,Chibby) 10 yards from PVAM48 to Rice42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
98.6%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 11 yds to the RICE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16MISSED FG16 plays · 37 yds · 5:0199% → 99%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
99.1%
PENALTY Rice UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Turner,Aaron) 15 yards from PVAM23 to PVAM38. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 25 yds · 3:311% → 1%
Q4 11:04
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+4
99.1%
Tevin Carter run for 4 yds to the PV 46 Tevin Carter fumbled, recovered by PV Tevin Carter for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.0%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 5 yds to the RICE 49Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-7
99.0%
Tevin Carter sacked by Cooper King for a loss of 7 yards to the PV 44Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+20
99.1%
Cameron Peters pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 20 yds to the RICE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18TD8 plays · 61 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q4 8:07
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
99.5%
Drew Devillier pass complete to David Kasemervisz for 5 yds to the PV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
99.6%
Drew Devillier sacked by Jayven Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 47Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Drew Devillier pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 22 yds for a TD (Chase Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PVDrive 19TD17 plays · 75 yds · 3:510% → 1%
Q4 4:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
PENALTY Rice Offside (Bility,Moh) 5 yards from PVAM32 to PVAM37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+10
100.0%
Tevin Carter pass complete to Chase Bingmon for 10 yds to the PV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+10
100.0%
Tevin Carter pass complete to William Taylor for 10 yds to the RICE 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20END OF GAME7 plays · 46 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:19
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Landon Ransom-Goelz for 34 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 4:56
Quinton Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Enock Gota KICK)
+2
FG · Q2 0:50
Enock Gota 49 yd FG GOOD
+1.2