NAVY
Navy 42 at Tulsa 23
TLSA2025 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2025 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey play
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NAVY · Drive 1INT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q1 14:55
Seth Morgan kickoff for 64 yds , Isaiah Bryant return for 19 yds to the NAVY 20
20.1%
0.0
Q1 14:49
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24
18.6%
-1.5
Q1 14:13
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25
18.2%
-0.4
Q1 13:40
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Elijah Green return for no gain to the NAVY 35
18.2%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 2TD · 5 plays · 35 yds
Q1 13:31
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 12 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST down
21.9%
+3.7
Q1 13:11
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic Richardson
21.9%
0.0
Q1 12:53
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 9 yds to the NAVY 14
21.9%
0.0
Q1 12:39
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the NAVY 14
21.7%
-0.2
Q1 12:07
Dominic Richardson run for 14 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
32.1%
+10.4
NAVY · Drive 3FUMBLE · 8 plays · 68 yds
Q1 12:07
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
32.0%
-0.1
Q1 12:01
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27
26.8%
-5.2
Q1 11:24
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 34
28.5%
+1.7
Q1 10:44
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST down
28.5%
0.0
Q1 10:05
Alex Tecza run for 39 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST down
28.5%
0.0
Q1 9:38
Blake Horvath pass complete to Charles Robinson for 10 yds Charles Robinson fumbled, recovered by NAVY for a 1ST down
26.4%
-2.1
Q1 9:05
Blake Horvath run for 11 yds to the TLSA 5 for a 1ST down
26.5%
+0.1
Q1 8:46
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 7 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by TLSA Devin Robinson
26.1%
-0.4
TLSA · Drive 4PUNT · 10 plays · 29 yds
Q1 8:38
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 6 yds to the TLSA 13
31.6%
+5.5
Q1 7:58
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 7 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST down
32.2%
+0.6
Q1 7:40
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 24
32.2%
0.0
Q1 7:16
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 28
32.2%
0.0
Q1 6:44
(06:48) Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete short right to Miller,Mekhi thrown to TUL47 PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference (Oniha,Ira) 14 yards from TUL28 to TUL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
32.2%
0.0
Q1 6:37
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the TLSA 43
32.8%
+0.6
Q1 6:05
Baylor Hayes sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 37
32.9%
+0.2
Q1 5:52
PENALTY TUL False Start (Adams,JaQuan) 5 yards from TUL37 to TUL32. NO PLAY.
32.9%
-0.1
Q1 5:27
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 4 yds to the TLSA 36
32.7%
-0.1
Q1 4:56
Angus Davies punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 17
32.6%
-0.2
NAVY · Drive 5INT · 2 plays · 2 yds
Q1 4:51
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 19
29.1%
-3.4
Q1 4:17
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Elijah Green return for no gain to the NAVY 46
29.1%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 6TD · 4 plays · 46 yds
Q1 3:54
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 17 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST down
33.7%
+4.5
Q1 3:34
(03:39) Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete deep left to Steptoe,Zion thrown to NAVY03 PENALTY NAVY Holding (Ross,Justin) 10 yards from NAVY29 to NAVY19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
33.8%
+0.2
Q1 3:29
Baylor Hayes run for 13 yds to the NAVY 6 for a 1ST down
33.8%
0.0
Q1 2:53
Baylor Hayes run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
48.3%
+14.4
NAVY · Drive 7TD · 6 plays · 75 yds
Q1 2:53
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
47.9%
-0.3
Q1 2:47
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30
42.4%
-5.5
Q1 2:08
Blake Horvath run for 35 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST down
42.4%
0.0
Q1 1:45
Eli Heidenreich run for 16 yds to the TLSA 19 for a 1ST down
40.3%
-2.1
Q1 1:08
Eli Heidenreich run for 18 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST down
40.5%
+0.1
Q1 0:26
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
27.3%
-13.2
TLSA · Drive 8PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q1 0:19
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 56 yds , Braylin Presley return for 33 yds to the TLSA 42
29.4%
+2.1
Q1 0:00
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 4 yds to the TLSA 46
34.7%
+5.3
Q2 14:56
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 45
34.9%
+0.2
Q2 14:22
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi Miller
34.8%
-0.1
Q2 14:13
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Brandon Chatman returns for no gain to the NAVY 10
34.2%
-0.6
NAVY · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · 4 yds
Q2 14:06
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 12
30.7%
-3.4
Q2 13:33
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 14
30.7%
0.0
Q2 12:47
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 14
30.7%
0.0
Q2 12:13
Jacob Carlson punt for 43 yds , Zion Booker returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 49
30.7%
0.0
Q2 12:13
Jacob Carlson punt for 43 yds , Zion Booker returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 49
30.7%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 10FUMBLE · 10 plays · -2 yds
Q2 12:01
Baylor Hayes run for 4 yds to the NAVY 45
36.0%
+5.3
Q2 11:31
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 41
36.0%
0.0
Q2 10:54
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi Miller
36.9%
+0.9
Q2 10:46
Baylor Hayes run for 4 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST down
36.6%
-0.3
Q2 10:12
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 16 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST down
37.4%
+0.8
Q2 9:40
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 2 yds to the NAVY 19
37.4%
0.0
Q2 9:10
Timeout Tulsa, clock 09:10
37.4%
0.0
Q2 9:05
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi Miller
37.4%
0.0
Q2 8:59
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Simon Wilson) to the NAVY 25
37.2%
-0.2
Q2 8:51
Baylor Hayes sacked by Julien Moutome for a loss of 26 yards to the TLSA 49 Baylor Hayes fumbled, recovered by NAVY Luke Pirris , return for 0 yards
37.2%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 11TD · 6 plays · 49 yds
Q2 8:39
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 35 yds to the TLSA 14 for a 1ST down
32.1%
-5.1
Q2 8:19
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the TLSA 8
31.5%
-0.6
Q2 7:45
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the TLSA 7
32.3%
+0.7
Q2 7:04
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST down
32.3%
0.0
Q2 6:21
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the TLSA 2
33.5%
+1.2
Q2 5:50
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
18.2%
-15.3
TLSA · Drive 12FG · 15 plays · 59 yds
Q2 5:50
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
20.0%
+1.8
Q2 5:41
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST down
24.5%
+4.5
Q2 5:23
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 38
24.7%
+0.2
Q2 4:45
Ajay Allen run for 10 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST down
25.3%
+0.6
Q2 4:12
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the NAVY 47
25.7%
+0.4
Q2 3:39
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Jacob Emmers
26.4%
+0.7
Q2 3:32
Calvin Johnson II run for 16 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST down
26.2%
-0.2
Q2 2:56
Calvin Johnson II run for no gain to the NAVY 31
26.7%
+0.5
Q2 2:13
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 13 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST down
26.9%
+0.2
Q2 2:00
Timeout Tulsa, clock 02:00
27.1%
+0.2
Q2 1:58
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion Booker
27.1%
0.0
Q2 1:52
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 16
27.1%
0.0
Q2 1:51
Timeout Navy, clock 01:51
26.5%
-0.7
Q2 1:47
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Braylin Presley
26.5%
0.0
Q2 1:44
Seth Morgan 34 yd FG GOOD
30.4%
+4.0
NAVY · Drive 13TD · 16 plays · 75 yds
Q2 1:44
Seth Morgan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
30.0%
-0.5
Q2 1:36
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 7 yds to the NAVY 32
29.4%
-0.6
Q2 1:31
Brandon Chatman run for 5 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST down
30.9%
+1.6
Q2 1:19
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Theo Elwell
30.9%
0.0
Q2 1:12
Blake Horvath run for 18 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST down
31.6%
+0.7
Q2 1:09
Timeout Tulsa, clock 01:09
29.6%
-2.0
Q2 1:02
Brandon Chatman run for 19 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST down
29.6%
0.0
Q2 0:56
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the TLSA 24
29.0%
-0.6
Q2 0:36
Timeout Navy, clock 00:36
29.1%
+0.1
Q2 0:33
Blake Horvath sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 10 yards to the TLSA 34
29.1%
0.0
Q2 0:27
Blake Horvath run for 19 yds to the TLSA 15 for a 1ST down
29.0%
-0.1
Q2 0:24
Timeout Navy, clock 00:24
28.9%
-0.1
Q2 0:20
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Alex Tecza
28.9%
0.0
Q2 0:15
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Horvath,Blake pass incomplete short middle to Heidenreich,Eli thrown to TUL00 PENALTY TUL Pass Interference (Williams,Zach) 13 yards from TUL15 to TUL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
28.9%
0.0
Q2 0:15
Timeout Tulsa, clock 00:15
28.9%
0.0
Q2 0:10
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
15.3%
-13.6
TLSA · Drive 14END OF HALF · 2 plays · 28 yds
Q2 0:00
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 41 yds , Landen Lucas return for 15 yds to the TLSA 39
16.3%
+1.0
Q2 0:00
Braylin Presley run for 28 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST down
20.3%
+4.0
TLSA · Drive 15PUNT · 5 plays · -9 yds
Q3 15:00
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 42 yds
17.5%
-2.8
Q3 14:51
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for 2 yds to the TLSA 23
21.2%
+3.7
Q3 14:18
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic Richardson
21.2%
0.0
Q3 14:04
Calvin Johnson II sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TLSA 16
21.2%
0.0
Q3 13:36
Angus Davies punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 44
21.2%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 16TD · 5 plays · 56 yds
Q3 13:31
Eli Heidenreich run for 9 yds to the TLSA 47
17.3%
-3.9
Q3 12:37
run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49 fumbled, recovered by NAVY Blake Horvath
17.2%
-0.2
Q3 12:20
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST down
17.2%
0.0
Q3 11:21
Blake Horvath pass complete to Joshua Guerin for 35 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST down
16.4%
-0.8
Q3 11:09
Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
7.0%
-9.4
TLSA · Drive 17DOWNS · 7 plays · 21 yds
Q3 11:00
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 65 yds , Calvin Johnson II return for 27 yds to the TLSA 27
7.5%
+0.6
Q3 10:55
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 29
8.5%
+1.0
Q3 10:29
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 12 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST down
8.9%
+0.4
Q3 10:10
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 45
9.0%
+0.1
Q3 9:37
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Ajay Allen
9.1%
+0.1
Q3 9:31
Tulsa Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declined
9.1%
0.0
Q3 9:25
Baylor Hayes run for 3 yds to the TLSA 48
9.1%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 18TD · 14 plays · 48 yds
Q3 9:19
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the TLSA 42
7.0%
-2.2
Q3 8:53
Shane Reynolds run for no gain to the TLSA 42
6.9%
-0.1
Q3 8:19
(08:22) No Huddle Horvath,Blake rush right for 3 yards gain to the TUL39 (Williams,Zach) PENALTY NAVY Holding (Smith II,Hoke) 10 yards from TUL42 to NAVY48. NO PLAY.
6.9%
0.0
Q3 7:45
Blake Horvath run for 15 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST down
7.0%
+0.1
Q3 7:03
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the TLSA 33
6.9%
-0.1
Q3 6:23
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the TLSA 30
6.9%
0.0
Q3 5:43
Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the TLSA 30
6.4%
-0.5
Q3 4:59
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 5 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST down
6.8%
+0.4
Q3 4:23
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the TLSA 23
6.9%
+0.1
Q3 3:39
Charles Robinson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 20
7.0%
+0.1
Q3 3:02
Blake Horvath run for 16 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST down
7.0%
0.0
Q3 2:44
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the TLSA 2
7.0%
0.0
Q3 2:25
PENALTY TUL Offside (Johnson,Nahki) 1 yard from TUL02 to TUL01. NO PLAY.
7.0%
0.0
Q3 2:05
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
0.9%
-6.1
TLSA · Drive 19DOWNS · 8 plays · 25 yds
Q3 1:59
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 59 yds , Calvin Johnson II return for 20 yds to the TLSA 26
0.9%
0.0
Q3 1:52
Dominic Richardson run for 16 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST down
2.9%
+2.0
Q3 1:32
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion Booker
3.0%
+0.1
Q3 1:27
Baylor Hayes run for 7 yds to the TLSA 49
3.0%
0.0
Q3 0:52
Calvin Johnson II run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 46
3.0%
0.0
Q3 0:25
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete deep left to Miller,Mekhi thrown to NAVY14 broken up by Ross,Justin PENALTY NAVY Offside (Moutome,Julien) 5 yards from TUL46 to NAVY49. NO PLAY.
2.5%
-0.5
Q3 0:23
Baylor Hayes run for no gain to the NAVY 49
2.5%
0.0
Q3 0:23
Baylor Hayes run for no gain to the NAVY 49
2.5%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 20TD · 10 plays · 51 yds
Q3 0:00
Blake Horvath run for 27 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST down
0.8%
-1.7
Q4 14:54
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the TLSA 18
0.8%
0.0
Q4 14:01
Jackson Gutierrez run for 2 yds to the TLSA 16
0.7%
-0.1
Q4 13:25
Jackson Gutierrez run for 3 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST down
0.7%
0.0
Q4 12:44
Jackson Gutierrez run for 9 yds to the TLSA 4
0.7%
0.0
Q4 12:00
Jackson Gutierrez run for 2 yds to the TLSA 2 for a 1ST down
0.7%
0.0
Q4 11:15
Jackson Gutierrez run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1
0.7%
0.0
Q4 10:26
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 2
0.7%
0.0
Q4 9:45
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1
0.7%
0.0
Q4 9:07
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
0.4%
-0.3
TLSA · Drive 21TD · 11 plays · 76 yds
Q4 9:02
Nathan Kirkwood kickoff for 65 yds , Calvin Johnson II return for 24 yds to the TLSA 24
0.4%
0.0
Q4 8:49
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 15 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST down
0.6%
+0.2
Q4 8:38
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 46
0.6%
0.0
Q4 8:20
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion Steptoe
0.6%
0.0
Q4 8:11
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 5 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q4 7:45
Ajay Allen run for 11 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q4 7:28
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36
0.6%
0.0
Q4 7:05
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Ajay Allen for 15 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q4 6:43
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 3 yds to the NAVY 18
0.6%
0.0
Q4 6:13
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Josh Smith
0.6%
0.0
Q4 6:08
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
1.7%
+1.0
NAVY · Drive 22DOWNS · 14 plays · 34 yds
Q4 6:07
Seth Morgan kickoff for 19 yds
1.6%
-0.1
Q4 6:00
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the TLSA 47
0.6%
-0.9
Q4 5:13
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 45
0.6%
0.0
Q4 4:33
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q4 3:51
Timeout Tulsa, clock 03:51
0.6%
-0.1
Q4 3:48
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 37
0.6%
0.0
Q4 3:44
Braxton Woodson run for 8 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST down
0.6%
0.0
Q4 3:04
Timeout Navy, clock 03:04
0.6%
0.0
Q4 2:57
Shane Reynolds run for 3 yds to the TLSA 26
0.6%
0.0
Q4 2:10
Charles Robinson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 22
0.6%
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout Tulsa, clock 02:00
0.6%
0.0
Q4 1:52
Timeout Tulsa, clock 01:52
0.5%
0.0
Q4 1:49
Jackson Gutierrez run for 1 yd to the TLSA 21
0.5%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Charles Robinson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 20
0.5%
0.0
TLSA · Drive 23INT · 7 plays · 32 yds
Q4 1:43
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 8 yds to the TLSA 28
1.6%
+1.1
Q4 1:37
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 5 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST down
1.6%
0.0
Q4 1:23
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Ajay Allen for 3 yds to the TLSA 36
1.6%
0.0
Q4 1:09
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 5 yds to the TLSA 41
1.6%
0.0
Q4 0:57
Braylin Presley run for 11 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST down
1.6%
0.0
Q4 0:45
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Jacob Emmers
1.6%
0.0
Q4 0:39
Baylor Hayes pass intercepted Justin Ross return for 3 yds to the NAVY 37
1.6%
0.0
NAVY · Drive 24END OF GAME · 1 play · -2 yds
Q4 0:00
(00:38) Kneel down by Navy at NAVY35 for loss of 2 yards.
0.4%
-1.2
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:50
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q1 2:53
Baylor Hayes run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q2 0:10
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-13.6