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NAVY

Navy 42 at Tulsa 23

TLSA
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · (00:38) Kneel down by Navy at NAVY35 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:53: Baylor Hayes run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +5.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:50: Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:10: Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:09: Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:05: Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:07TLSA 4th & 1 at NAVY 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:56TLSA 4th & 16 at TLSA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:13TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:13NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:13NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:46TLSA 4th & 2 at NAVY 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−1.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44TLSA 4th & 8 at NAVY 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:36TLSA 4th & 19 at TLSA 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:25TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 45, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:59NAVY 4th & 3 at TLSA 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    81.1%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:23TLSA 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:23TLSA 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:07NAVY 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:48NAVY 4th & 2 at TLSA 21, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:07TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:53TLSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:26NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:50NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:10NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:09NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:05NAVY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:07NAVY Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:08TLSA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0983% → 82%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
17.2%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
17.5%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
17.8%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Elijah Green return for no gain to the NAVY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:2418% → 19%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
18.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 12 yds to the NAVY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
18.2%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
18.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 9 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
18.4%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the NAVY 14Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+14
19.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 14 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3FUMBLE
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1581% → 79%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.2%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
19.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the NAVY 34Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
20.1%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+39
20.6%
Alex Tecza run for 39 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
20.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Charles Robinson for 10 yds Charles Robinson fumbled, recovered by NAVY for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
20.9%
Blake Horvath run for 11 yds to the TLSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
21.0%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 7 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by TLSA Devin RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:4222% → 25%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
21.9%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 6 yds to the TLSA 13Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+7
22.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 7 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
22.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
23.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+14
23.4%
(06:48) Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete short right to Miller,Mekhi thrown to TUL47 PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference (Oniha,Ira) 14 yards from TUL28 to TUL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
24.2%
Ajay Allen run for 1 yd to the TLSA 43Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-6
24.7%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the TLSA 37Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-5
24.2%
PENALTY TUL False Start (Adams,JaQuan) 5 yards from TUL37 to TUL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 20
OWN 32
+4
24.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 4 yds to the TLSA 36Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
24.7%
Angus Davies punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NAVY 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5INT
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:3475% → 74%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
25.1%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
25.7%
Blake Horvath pass intercepted Elijah Green return for no gain to the NAVY 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:0127% → 33%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
27.0%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 17 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
27.4%
(03:39) Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete deep left to Steptoe,Zion thrown to NAVY03 PENALTY NAVY Holding (Ross,Justin) 10 yards from NAVY29 to NAVY19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
27.5%
Baylor Hayes run for 13 yds to the NAVY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
32.8%
Baylor Hayes run for 6 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2169% → 73%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.1%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+35
31.2%
Blake Horvath run for 35 yds to the TLSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
30.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 16 yds to the TLSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
31.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 18 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.9%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4731% → 30%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
30.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 4 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-1
30.8%
Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 45Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
30.8%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
30.0%
Angus Davies punt for 45 yds , Brandon Chatman returns for no gain to the NAVY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5370% → 67%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
30.3%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
30.9%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 14Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
32.3%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 14Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+8
33.3%
Jacob Carlson punt for 43 yds , Zion Booker returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+8
33.3%
Jacob Carlson punt for 43 yds , Zion Booker returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · -2 yds · 3:1034% → 36%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
34.2%
Baylor Hayes run for 4 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
34.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
35.0%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+4
34.3%
Baylor Hayes run for 4 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
36.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 16 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
37.3%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 2 yds to the NAVY 19Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
37.8%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-6
37.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds Tulsa Penalty, Offensive Holding (Simon Wilson) to the NAVY 25Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 14
OPP 25
-26
36.4%
Baylor Hayes sacked by Julien Moutome for a loss of 26 yards to the TLSA 49 Baylor Hayes fumbled, recovered by NAVY Luke Pirris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:4967% → 75%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+35
33.5%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 35 yds to the TLSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
32.4%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the TLSA 8Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
33.3%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the TLSA 7Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+3
35.1%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
34.5%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.3%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 3:5731% → 39%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
31.2%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 12 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
32.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 38Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
32.7%
Ajay Allen run for 10 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
34.5%
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
35.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+16
34.8%
Calvin Johnson II run for 16 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
36.6%
Calvin Johnson II run for no gain to the NAVY 31Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
36.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 13 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
37.2%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
37.3%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 16Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
36.3%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
38.5%
Seth Morgan 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 1:2663% → 77%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.2%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 7 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
35.7%
Brandon Chatman run for 5 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Theo ElwellSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+18
37.0%
Blake Horvath run for 18 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
34.0%
Brandon Chatman run for 19 yds to the TLSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
32.5%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-10
34.4%
Blake Horvath sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 10 yards to the TLSA 34Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 18
OPP 34
+19
38.6%
Blake Horvath run for 19 yds to the TLSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
37.3%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Alex TeczaSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+13
37.3%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Horvath,Blake pass incomplete short middle to Heidenreich,Eli thrown to TUL00 PENALTY TUL Pass Interference (Williams,Zach) 13 yards from TUL15 to TUL02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.8%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
30.8%
Braylin Presley run for 28 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1529% → 27%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.5%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Braylin Presley for 2 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
28.5%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-7
27.5%
Calvin Johnson II sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TLSA 16Similar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
27.2%
Angus Davies punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brandon Chatman at the NAVY 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:2274% → 83%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
26.0%
Eli Heidenreich run for 9 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
25.7%
run for 2 yds to the TLSA 49 fumbled, recovered by NAVY Blake HorvathSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+4
26.5%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
26.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Joshua Guerin for 35 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
17.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3018% → 17%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
17.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+12
17.8%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 12 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
18.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
18.9%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Ajay AllenSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
18.1%
Tulsa Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+3
17.2%
Baylor Hayes run for 3 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
14 plays · 48 yds · 7:1484% → 96%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
16.4%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
16.2%
Shane Reynolds run for no gain to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-10
16.2%
(08:22) No Huddle Horvath,Blake rush right for 3 yards gain to the TUL39 (Williams,Zach) PENALTY NAVY Holding (Smith II,Hoke) 10 yards from TUL42 to NAVY48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+15
16.8%
Blake Horvath run for 15 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
15.8%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
15.4%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
15.8%
Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+5
17.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 5 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
15.0%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the TLSA 23Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
15.0%
Charles Robinson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 20Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+16
15.3%
Blake Horvath run for 16 yds to the TLSA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
14.9%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
14.9%
PENALTY TUL Offside (Johnson,Nahki) 1 yard from TUL02 to TUL01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:298% → 7%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
7.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 16 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
8.1%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
8.0%
Baylor Hayes run for 7 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-3
8.1%
Calvin Johnson II run for a loss of 3 yards to the TLSA 46Similar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+5
7.2%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Hayes,Baylor pass incomplete deep left to Miller,Mekhi thrown to NAVY14 broken up by Ross,Justin PENALTY NAVY Offside (Moutome,Julien) 5 yards from TUL46 to NAVY49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
7.4%
Baylor Hayes run for no gain to the NAVY 49Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
7.4%
Baylor Hayes run for no gain to the NAVY 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 5:5396% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
4.1%
Blake Horvath run for 27 yds to the TLSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
3.9%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
3.7%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 2 yds to the TLSA 16Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
3.8%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 3 yds to the TLSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
3.6%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 9 yds to the TLSA 4Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+2
3.5%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 2 yds to the TLSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
3.1%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
3.0%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 2Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
3.1%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:410% → 4%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
0.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 15 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
0.4%
Dominic Richardson run for 7 yds to the TLSA 46Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
0.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Zion SteptoeSimilar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
0.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 5 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
0.4%
Ajay Allen run for 11 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
0.4%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+15
0.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Ajay Allen for 15 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
0.4%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 3 yds to the NAVY 18Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
0.4%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
3.6%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 34 yds · 4:1298% → 99%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
1.6%
Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
1.4%
Braxton Woodson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
1.3%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the TLSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
1.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+8
1.1%
Braxton Woodson run for 8 yds to the TLSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
0.9%
Shane Reynolds run for 3 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
0.8%
Charles Robinson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 22Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
0.6%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 1 yd to the TLSA 21Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+1
0.7%
Charles Robinson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:041% → 1%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
0.7%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 8 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
0.7%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Zion Booker for 5 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.7%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Ajay Allen for 3 yds to the TLSA 36Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
0.7%
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 5 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+11
0.6%
Braylin Presley run for 11 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
0.7%
Baylor Hayes pass incomplete to Jacob EmmersSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-3
0.7%
Baylor Hayes pass intercepted Justin Ross return for 3 yds to the NAVY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
0.6%
(00:38) Kneel down by Navy at NAVY35 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 2:05
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q3 11:09
Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com