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MONM

Monmouth 35 at Charlotte 42

CLT
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadMONM aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreMONM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-37.4CLT 43.4%Derek Robertson pass complete to JoshDerry for 4 yds for a TD (Hudson FieneKICK)AWAY 35 - HOME 35 · Q4 3:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:19 · Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 4 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Home team on offense−7.1Pregame prior+0.3Score differential−4.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:15: Conner Harrell pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK) — CLT win probability +21.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:55: Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 8 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK) — MONM win probability +24.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MONM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:37: Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK) — CLT win probability +23.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:19: Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 4 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK) — MONM win probability +37.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: MONM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:30: Conner Harrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK) — CLT win probability +28.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MONM made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:53MONM 4th & 2 at MONM 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:49MONM 4th & 18 at MONM 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53CLT 4th & 2 at MONM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53CLT 4th & 2 at MONM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:07MONM 4th & 6 at CLT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:07MONM 4th & 6 at CLT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:07CLT 4th & 9 at MONM 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:53MONM 4th & 10 at MONM 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:53MONM 4th & 10 at MONM 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:49MONM 4th & 10 at CLT 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:35CLT 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.7%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:19MONM 4th & 4 at CLT 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−5.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−14.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:09MONM 4th & 21 at MONM 39, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:09MONM 4th & 21 at MONM 39, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MONM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:17MONM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:52CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:51MONM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:18CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:02MONM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:59CLT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:15CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55MONM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:37CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:19MONM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−0.8
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:30CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MONMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5845% → 44%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.5%
Rodney Nelson run for 7 yds to the MONM 32Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
55.5%
Ayden Martin run for 1 yd to the MONM 33Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
55.6%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to TJ SpeightSimilar
Q1 13:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
55.6%
Luke Schabel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:5356% → 56%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
55.6%
CJ Stokes run for 6 yds to the CLT 33Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
55.7%
CJ Stokes run for 5 yds to the CLT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
55.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 14 yds to the MONM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.2%
CJ Stokes run for 2 yds to the MONM 46Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
56.3%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 3 yds to the MONM 43Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-10
56.3%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Harrell,Conner rush right for 8 yards gain to the MON35, out of bounds at MON35 PENALTY CLT Holding (Bowers,Mason) 10 yards from MON43 to CLT47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+2
55.9%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 2 yds to the CLT 49Similar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
55.7%
Bronson Long punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Makhi Green at the MONM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0144% → 44%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
55.9%
Rodney Nelson run for 5 yds to the MONM 16Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-4
55.9%
Rodney Nelson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MONM 12Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 12
-9
56.2%
Derek Robertson sacked by Reid Williford for a loss of 9 yards to the MONM 3Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 18
OWN 3
+22
56.3%
Luke Schabel punt for 48 yds , Javen Nicholas returns for 22 yds to the MONM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2457% → 57%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
56.9%
CJ Stokes run for 2 yds to the MONM 27Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+14
57.1%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Rod Gainey Jr. for 14 yds to the MONM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-9
57.2%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 9 yards to the CLT 40 Conner Harrell fumbled, recovered by MONM Jaeden JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 5TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:5546% → 51%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
54.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Makhi Green for 9 yds to the CLT 31Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
54.0%
Makhi Green run for 4 yds to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
53.9%
Derek Robertson run for 9 yds to the CLT 18Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+7
53.9%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Gavin Nelson for 7 yds to the CLT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
53.9%
Rodney Nelson run for 5 yds to the CLT 6Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
53.9%
Rodney Nelson run for 5 yds to the CLT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.2%
Elijah Jennings run for 1 yd for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6FUMBLE
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:1350% → 49%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
49.6%
CJ Stokes run for 16 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
50.5%
CJ Stokes run for 10 yds to the MONM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
50.9%
Conner Harrell pass complete to CJ Stokes for 11 yds to the MONM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
50.8%
(01:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Harrell,Conner pass complete short right to Nicholas,Javen caught at MON31, for 5 yards to the MON31 (Bennin,Justin) PENALTY CLT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Davis,Devin) 5 yards from MON36 to MON41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:22
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+2
50.0%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 2 yds to the MONM 39Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+2
49.7%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Rod Gainey Jr. for 2 yds to the MONM 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+13
48.9%
Conner Harrell run for 13 yds to the MONM 28Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-1
49.4%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MONM 29 CJ Stokes fumbled, recovered by MONM Brendan BigosSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 2
OPP 28
-1
49.4%
CJ Stokes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MONM 29 CJ Stokes fumbled, recovered by MONM Brendan BigosSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3351% → 53%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
48.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tra Neal for 12 yds to the MONM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
47.4%
TJ Speight run for 2 yds to the MONM 43Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+12
47.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tra Neal for 12 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
46.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 10 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
46.2%
Rodney Nelson run for 6 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
45.7%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Rodney NelsonSimilar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-15
46.0%
Monmouth Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the CLT 32Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+1
45.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Maxwell James for 1 yd to the CLT 31Similar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
46.8%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Tra NealSimilar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
46.8%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Tra NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5249% → 45%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
48.6%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 16 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
49.9%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 7 yds to the MONM 46Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
50.3%
Conner Harrell run for 2 yds to the MONM 44Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
49.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 4 yds to the MONM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
49.6%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the MONM 41Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+6
49.0%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 6 yds to the MONM 35Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-4
48.0%
Conner Harrell sacked by Lamont Lester Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MONM 39Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
45.4%
Bronson Long punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Makhi Green at the MONM 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:0350% → 50%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
49.7%
Rodney Nelson run for 2 yds to the MONM 7Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
49.8%
Rodney Nelson run for 5 yds to the MONM 12Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+24
50.4%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Gavin Nelson for 24 yds to the MONM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.5%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Gavin NelsonSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Deuce LeeSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
48.6%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Josh DerrySimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
49.7%
Luke Schabel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 23Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
49.7%
Luke Schabel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Javen Nicholas at the CLT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:5451% → 62%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
50.9%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 11 yds to the CLT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
51.1%
Conner Harrell run for 4 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+43
52.4%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 28 yds to the MONM 34 for a 1ST down Monmouth Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Hunter Watson) to the MONM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
54.2%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Gainey Jr.,Rod rush right for 19 yards gain to the MON00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:16 PENALTY CLT Holding (Gibson,Tyler) 10 yards from MON19 to MON29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+9
53.5%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 9 yds to the MONM 20Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+9
53.7%
Cameren Smith run for 9 yds to the MONM 11Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+4
52.9%
Cameren Smith run for 4 yds to the MONM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
61.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 7 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:4844% → 54%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Maxwell James for 6 yds to the MONM 31Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
55.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 4 yds to the MONM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
55.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Maxwell James for 6 yds to the MONM 41Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+32
53.4%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Maxwell James for 17 yds to the CLT 42 for a 1ST down Charlotte Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ja'Qurious Conley) to the CLT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
50.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 12 yds to the CLT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
46.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Maxwell James for 15 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:2554% → 54%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
53.6%
Conner Harrell run for 5 yds to the MONM 40Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
53.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 6 yds to the MONM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
55.0%
Conner Harrell run for 11 yds to the MONM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
54.3%
Conner Harrell pass intercepted, touchback. Ayden Martin return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
50.2%
(00:05) Kneel down by Monmouth at MON18 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:3642% → 62%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+51
42.1%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 36 yds to the MONM 40 for a 1ST down Monmouth Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Spencer Kishbaugh) to the MONM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
47.0%
Conner Harrell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MONM 27Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+10
46.6%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 10 yds to the MONM 17Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-5
45.6%
PENALTY CLT False Start (Nicholas,Javen) 5 yards from MON17 to MON22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+9
45.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 9 yds to the MONM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
47.0%
Cameren Smith run for 5 yds to the MONM 8Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
61.6%
Conner Harrell run for 8 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0846% → 67%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to TJ Speight for 5 yds to the MONM 20Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
54.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to TJ Speight for 15 yds to the MONM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.4%
Rodney Nelson run for 3 yds to the MONM 38Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
51.1%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Derek pass incomplete short middle to Neri,Jack thrown to CLT48 PENALTY CLT Pass Interference (Taylor,Shay) 15 yards from MON38 to CLT47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
49.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Gavin Nelson for 18 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
32.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 29 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:5839% → 62%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
39.1%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Jake YoungSimilar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
38.8%
PENALTY CLT False Start (Ramil,Jesse) 5 yards from CLT35 to CLT30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+2
38.1%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 2 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+62
37.0%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 62 yds to the MONM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
43.9%
(09:11) PENALTY CLT False Start (Davis,Devin) 5 yards from MON06 to MON11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
43.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Miles Burris for 10 yds to the MONM 1Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.0%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:0247% → 48%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 14 yds to the MONM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
50.7%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tra Neal for 12 yds to the CLT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
48.8%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Tra NealSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
49.3%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Nelson,Rodney rush right for 10 yards gain to the CLT39 (Curtain,Caleb; Franklin,Randy) PENALTY MON Holding (Shriner,Kevin) 10 yards from CLT49 to MON41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+4
52.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 4 yds to the MONM 45Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+18
53.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Marcus Middleton for 18 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
48.3%
Rodney Nelson run for 2 yds to the CLT 35Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
46.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 3 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
47.3%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Josh DerrySimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 5
OPP 32
-5
50.6%
(04:54) PENALTY MON False Start (Derry,Josh) 5 yards from CLT32 to CLT37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 10
OPP 37
-8
51.9%
Derek Robertson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the CLT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2260% → 83%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
60.0%
Cameren Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 5
50
+12
60.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 12 yds to the MONM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
61.3%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Javen NicholasSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
61.0%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 10 yds to the MONM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
62.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Gus McGee for 14 yds to the MONM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
62.6%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 7 yds to the MONM 7Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 7
0
62.6%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Joey Bearns III for no gain to the MONM 7Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+3
61.0%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 3 yds to the MONM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0726% → 56%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
74.4%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tra Neal for 28 yds to the CLT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
70.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Marcus Middleton for 15 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+24
68.7%
Derek Robertson pass complete to TJ Speight for 24 yds to the CLT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
44.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 8 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:5657% → 88%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-8
56.7%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Gainey Jr.,Rod rush middle for 16 yards gain to the CLT32 (Briscoe Jr.,DJ) PENALTY CLT Holding (Gibson,Tyler) 8 yards from CLT16 to CLT08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 18
OWN 8
+9
55.1%
Conner Harrell run for 9 yds to the CLT 17Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+8
56.2%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 8 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
55.3%
Cameren Smith run for 1 yd to the CLT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
56.8%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Cameren Smith for 17 yds to the CLT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
60.6%
Conner Harrell pass incomplete to Gus McGeeSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
59.2%
Cameren Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 41Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+9
55.4%
Conner Harrell run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 3
50
+15
58.1%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Joey Bearns III for 15 yds to the MONM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
64.0%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 8 yds to the MONM 27Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
64.1%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 3 yds to the MONM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
87.5%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 24 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1221% → 57%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.7%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Gavin NelsonSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Gavin Nelson for 7 yds to the MONM 32Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
79.6%
Rodney Nelson run for 9 yds to the MONM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
79.4%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 38 yds to the CLT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
74.5%
Derek Robertson sacked by Reid Williford for a loss of 10 yards to the CLT 31Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+14
79.0%
Elijah Jennings run for 14 yds to the CLT 17Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
78.0%
PENALTY MON False Start (Neri,Jack) 5 yards from CLT17 to CLT22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+12
79.4%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Gavin Nelson for 12 yds to the CLT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
76.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 1 yd to the CLT 9Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
76.7%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Maxwell James for 4 yds to the CLT 5Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
80.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jack Neri for 1 yd to the CLT 4Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.4%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 4 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:4355% → 97%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
54.6%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 3 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
57.6%
Conner Harrell pass complete to Javen Nicholas for no gain to the CLT 38Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+55
60.2%
Conner Harrell pass complete to E. Jai Mason for 55 yds to the MONM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
68.3%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 2 yds to the MONM 5Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
68.5%
Rod Gainey Jr. run for 3 yds to the MONM 2Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.0%
Conner Harrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MONMDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:157% → 6%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.2%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 11 yds to the MONM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
92.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 3 yds to the MONM 39Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
93.0%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Josh DerrySimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+11
93.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tra Neal for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
50
0
92.3%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Josh DerrySimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
50
0
92.7%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Tra NealSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 10
50
-11
93.3%
Derek Robertson sacked by Curtis Simpson for a loss of 11 yards to the MONM 39Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
94.5%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Gavin NelsonSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
94.5%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Tra NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -17 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
98.6%
PENALTY CLT UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Taylor,Shay) 15 yards from MON39 to CLT46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 46
-2
98.4%
(00:00) Kneel down by Charlotte at CLT44 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:19
Derek Robertson pass complete to Josh Derry for 4 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)
-37.4
TD · Q4 1:30
Conner Harrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)
+28.5
TD · Q4 14:55
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rodney Nelson for 8 yds for a TD (Hudson Fiene KICK)
-24.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com