View as
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadHOW aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreHOW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:42 · Carl Hardin 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:36: Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 8 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:05: Tyriq Starks pass complete to KD Mosley for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Conord KICK) — HOW win probability +2.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:54: Carl Hardin 45 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:43: Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 4 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:32: Jay Ducker run for 15 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4HOW made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 7:48HOW 4th & 9 at HOW 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q1 2:46HOW 4th & 4 at HOW 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q1 2:46HOW 4th & 4 at HOW 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q2 3:54TEM 4th & 8 at HOW 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call93.7%62% to makePunt92.2%−1.5average punt
- Q2 1:48HOW 4th & 12 at HOW 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q3 11:23HOW 4th & 17 at TEM 48, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 8:35HOW 4th & 16 at HOW 19, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 11:54TEM 4th & 2 at HOW 9, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%54% to convertField goal99.8%−0.189% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:42TEM 4th & 13 at HOW 13, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%85% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:13HOW 4th & 9 at HOW 25, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:20HOW 4th & 7 at HOW 28, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:19TEM 4th & 3 at HOW 46, up 48Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:03HOW 4th & 8 at HOW 22, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7HOW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 10:04TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:37TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:36TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:05HOW Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.7%97% to makeGo for two5.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:43TEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:32TEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:57TEM Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:17TEM Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1TD10 plays · 72 yds · 4:3396% → 95%
Q1 11:13
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+27
95.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 27 yds to the HOW 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 2:165% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD6 plays · 63 yds · 3:0095% → 96%
HOWDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 1:465% → 5%
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.2%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Antonio Hunter for 3 yds to the HOW 22Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
95.2%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Starks,Tyriq sacked for loss of 5 yards to the HOW17 (Kromah,Sekou) PENALTY TEM Illegal Substitution 5 yards from HOW22 to HOW27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
95.3%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Zaden Jackson for 4 yds to the HOW 31Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
95.3%
Liam Allen IV punt for 33 yds , Tyler Stewart returns for 5 yds to the TEM 41Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Liam Allen IV punt for 34 yds , Tyler Stewart returns for no gain to the TEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0895% → 97%
HOWDrive 6TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:253% → 6%
Q2 14:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
96.7%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Breylin Smith for 7 yds to the HOW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+30
96.8%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to John Simmons III for 15 yds to the TEM 41 for a 1ST down Temple Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Eric Stuart) to the TEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
96.6%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Antonio Hunter for 14 yds to the TEM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.3%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to KD Mosley for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Conord KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7FG12 plays · 54 yds · 4:4395% → 96%
HOWDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:585% → 5%
TEMDrive 9TD6 plays · 53 yds · 0:5996% → 98%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
96.4%
Evan Simon sacked by Noah Miles for a loss of 3 yards to the TEM 44Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+46
96.6%
Evan Simon pass complete to Xavier Irvin for 46 yds to the HOW 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 4 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 10END OF HALF4 plays · 13 yds · 0:302% → 3%
HOWDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:233% → 2%
Q3 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
97.3%
(14:06) Starks,Tyriq sacked for loss of 11 yards to the HOW33 (Kromah,Sekou) PENALTY TEM Face Mask (Kromah,Sekou) 15 yards from HOW44 to TEM41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-10
97.6%
(12:59) Shotgun Starks,Tyriq pass incomplete short right to Jackson,Zaden thrown to TEM36 PENALTY HOW Holding (Mister,De'Eric) 10 yards from TEM41 to HOW49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+4
97.8%
Tyriq Starks pass complete to Eden James for 4 yds to the HOW 45Similar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 17
OPP 48
+37
97.9%
Liam Allen IV punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HOW 47 , JoJo Bermudez returns for 37 yds to the HOW 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD2 plays · 47 yds · 0:3098% → 100%
HOWDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
PENALTY HOW Delay Of Game (Starks,Tyriq) 5 yards from HOW25 to HOW20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.7%
Tyriq Starks sacked by Cam'Ron Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the HOW 19Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+17
99.7%
Liam Allen IV punt for 66 yds , JoJo Bermudez returns for 17 yds to the TEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14TD14 plays · 78 yds · 7:20100% → 100%
Q3 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+14
99.7%
Gevani McCoy run for 14 yds to the TEM 43 Gevani McCoy fumbled, recovered by TEM Gevani McCoy for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 3
50
+4
99.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Peter Clarke for 4 yds to the HOW 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+17
99.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Xavier Irvin for 17 yds to the HOW 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
99.8%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Ryder Kusch for 4 yds to the HOW 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Joquez Smith for 12 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 15INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass complete to Zaden Jackson for 5 yds to the HOW 15Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 19
-9
99.9%
PENALTY HOW Personal Foul (Hill,Sam) 9 yards from HOW19 to HOW10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
99.9%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins pass intercepted Adrian Laing return for no gain to the HOW 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16FG10 plays · 19 yds · 4:43100% → 100%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Xavier Irvin for 15 yds to the HOW 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Antonio Jones for 5 yds to the HOW 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
99.9%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun McCoy,Gevani pass complete short middle to Irvin,Xavier caught at HOW01, for 3 yards to the HOW01, End Of Play PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Evert,Daniel) 15 yards from HOW04 to HOW19. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 8:13
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Matt Conord punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Colin Chase at the TEM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18TD2 plays · 63 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
HOWDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 6:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Matt Conord punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Colin Chase at the TEM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Q4 1:03
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Matt Conord punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Colin Chase at the TEM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:05
Tyriq Starks pass complete to KD Mosley for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Conord KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q2 0:43
Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 4 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q3 10:32
Jay Ducker run for 15 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
+1.5