Try the model
UNT

North Texas 33 at Western Michigan 30

WMU
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4OTQ4OTTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+2WMU 57.4%Dennis Moody III 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 27 · Q3 10:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:37 · Dennis Moody III 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4OTQ4OTPlay 137Pregame prior−14.7Home team on offense+7.1Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+3.2Time remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:33: Broc Lowry run for 8 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +13.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:40: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 18 yds for a TD North Texas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Braydon Nelson) to the WMU 0 (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +16.4 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:03: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 4 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +25.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 1:35: Kali Nguma 25 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +16.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Palmer Domschke 48 Yd Field Goal — WMU win probability +19.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 8:08WMU 4th & 11 at UNT 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:06UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30WMU 4th & 8 at UNT 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:07UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00WMU 4th & 2 at UNT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−0.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00WMU 4th & 2 at UNT 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    34.5%−1.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:49UNT 4th & 16 at UNT 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:37UNT 4th & 4 at WMU 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−11.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:11WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:54UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:13WMU 4th & 4 at UNT 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:37UNT 4th & 4 at WMU 4, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−12.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:23WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:13WMU 4th & 4 at UNT 25, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−7.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:40UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:35UNT 4th & 7 at WMU 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−9.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−28.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 13:33WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:48UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:33WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:40UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:03UNT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 6:5220% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
20.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
20.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the WMU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
20.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
20.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+7
20.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 7 yds to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
20.0%
Brady Jones pass complete to Baylin Brooks for 5 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
20.0%
Devin Miles run for 8 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
20.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the UNT 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
20.0%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the UNT 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-7
20.0%
Brady Jones run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 32 Brady Jones fumbled, recovered by WMU Brady Jones B. Jones return for 5 ydsSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 11
OPP 32
0
23.4%
Ryan Millmore punt for 29 yds, downed at the UNT 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0277% → 76%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
23.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the UNT 5Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+7
23.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 7 yds to the UNT 12Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 1
OWN 12
0
23.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
24.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3625% → 26%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
24.5%
Brady Jones pass complete to Blake Bosma for 7 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
24.6%
Jalen Buckley run for 4 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
24.6%
Brady Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 45 Brady Jones fumbled, recovered by WMU Brady JonesSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+6
24.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
24.5%
Brady Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
25.5%
Ryan Millmore punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Miles Coleman at the UNT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 4:3075% → 71%
Q1 4:30
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
25.5%
John Peters punt for 32 yds to the WMU Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
25.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for no gain to the UNT 7Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
25.4%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
25.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 4
OWN 13
-4
26.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 44 yds , Keivin Boone-Nelson II returns for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 39Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
29.5%
Ryan Brotherton run for a loss of 4 yards to the , Ryan Brotherton runSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+6
28.8%
Palmer Domschke run for 6 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
29.2%
Ryan Brotherton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:5725% → 35%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
25.4%
Jordan Reasonover pass to Johnny Dickson IIISimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
25.6%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 4
OWN 13
-4
26.7%
Jayden Becks punt for 44 yds to the WMU 39, DeShawn Robinson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 39Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
26.6%
Devin Miles run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 37Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+13
26.2%
Broc Lowry run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
50
0
27.1%
Broc Lowry run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
50
+5
27.0%
Devin Miles run for 5 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+3
27.0%
Devin Miles run for 3 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+15
28.6%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 15 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
29.8%
Broc Lowry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
29.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
35.2%
Broc Lowry run for 25 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
18 plays · 68 yds · 7:1969% → 73%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
30.6%
Hunter Whitenack run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 37Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+13
30.2%
Justin Jones run for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
50
0
31.0%
Justin Jones run to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 10
50
+5
30.8%
Hunter Whitenack run for 5 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+3
30.7%
Hunter Whitenack run for 3 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+15
32.9%
Justin Jones pass to Nadame Tucker for 15 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
34.1%
Justin Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
34.1%
Palmer Domschke run for 2 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
35.2%
Justin Jones run for 25 yds to the UNT 0, for a TD (CJ Miles Jr. KICK)Similar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
33.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 3 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
33.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+20
33.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Kiefer Sibley for 20 yds to the WMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
32.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 23 yds to the WMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
31.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
31.5%
Kiefer Sibley run for no gain to the WMU 22Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+12
32.4%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 12 yds to the WMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
27.4%
Kiefer Sibley run for 10 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FG
17 plays · 68 yds · 12:3160% → 48%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
40.0%
Jordan Reasonover sacked by Devin Miles for a loss of 7 yards to the UNT 18Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+1
40.3%
Ethan Wesloski run for 1 yd to the UNT 19Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
41.1%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
43.1%
Jayden Becks punt for 41 yds to the UNT Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
48.6%
Kiefer Sibley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 25
-10
51.3%
North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Landon Sides) to the UNT 30Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+21
51.2%
Kiefer Sibley run for 21 yds to the WMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
47.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
48.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 15 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
46.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 9 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+9
46.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 9 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
46.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 12 yds to the WMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.1%
Makenzie McGill II run for no gain to the WMU 4Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
49.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
51.8%
Kali Nguma 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 41 yds · 15:1644% → 79%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
43.9%
Palmer Domschke run for 2 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
43.9%
Justin Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
42.4%
Palmer Domschke run for 5 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
43.9%
John Peters punt for 52 yds to the WMU , punt out-of-bounds at the WMU Similar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
58.2%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
60.4%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 4 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+15
60.3%
(09:19) LOWRY, Broc pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BUCKLEY, Jalen thrown to the UNT10, clock 09:17. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on WHITTER, Shane enforced 15 yards to the UNT20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
61.9%
Christian Leary run for 2 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
62.2%
Devin Miles run for 7 yds to the UNT 11Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
63.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the UNT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
65.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the UNT 8Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
78.8%
Broc Lowry run for 8 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9TD
13 plays · 52 yds · 15:3147% → 48%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
53.5%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
53.7%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+19
54.1%
Jordan Reasonover pass to Jalyn Durgan for 19 yds to the UNT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
52.6%
Ethan Wesloski run for 8 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
52.0%
Willie Goodacre runSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-2
54.8%
Jordan Reasonover sacked by Devin Miles for a loss of 2 yards to the UNT 25Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
55.8%
Jayden Becks punt for 27 yds to the UNT Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
71.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 14 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
70.8%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Tay Yanta II) to the UNT 42Similar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+31
74.0%
Drew Mestemaker run for 31 yds to the WMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
68.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 9 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+18
52.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 18 yds for a TD North Texas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Braydon Nelson) to the WMU 0 (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10FG
21 plays · 36 yds · 18:4148% → 77%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
48.3%
Palmer Domschke run for 7 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
48.6%
Palmer Domschke run for 1 yd to the UNT 44Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+6
48.7%
Justin Jones run for 6 yds to the UNT 38Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
49.8%
Hunter Whitenack run for 3 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
50.2%
Hunter Whitenack run for 2 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
49.0%
Palmer Domschke run for 6 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
50.2%
Justin Jones run for 3 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
50.2%
Palmer Domschke run for 4 yds to the UNT 20Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+3
48.9%
Palmer Domschke run for 3 yds to the UNT 17Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
50.1%
Justin Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
50.1%
Justin Jones run, Western Michigan Penalty, illegalformation (Justin Jones)Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+40
52.4%
CJ Miles Jr. 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
66.0%
Devin Miles run for 2 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
67.0%
Devin Miles run for 6 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
67.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the UNT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
69.5%
Broc Lowry sacked by Ethan Day for a loss of 9 yards to the WMU 43Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+26
69.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 26 yds to the UNT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.1%
Devin Miles run for no gain to the UNT 31Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
75.7%
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+3
76.4%
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
77.0%
Palmer Domschke 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
17 plays · 6 yds · 21:4548% → 11%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
51.8%
Willie Goodacre run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 25Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
53.5%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+25
54.5%
Jordan Reasonover pass to Willie Goodacre for 15 yds to the UNT 22, North Texas Penalty, holding (Brenden Reese)Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+21
56.4%
Willie Goodacre run for 21 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
52.9%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
53.8%
Jordan Reasonover pass to Jalyn Durgan for 15 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
52.1%
Ethan Wesloski run for 9 yds to the WMU 25Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+9
52.0%
Jordan Reasonover pass to Brenden Reese for 9 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
52.8%
Jordan Reasonover pass to Johnny Dickson III for 12 yds to the WMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.3%
Ethan Wesloski runSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.9%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.4%
Jordan Reasonover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
57.4%
Dennis Moody III 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
84.4%
Jalen Buckley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 4
50
+3
84.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-3
88.5%
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 4
50
0
88.6%
Ryan Millmore punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Simeon Evans at the UNT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
15 plays · 4 yds · 21:5663% → 94%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
62.9%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
63.3%
Broc Lowry pass to Blake Bosma for 4 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+15
63.3%
Broc Lowry pass incomplete, North Texas Penalty, passinterference (Shane Whitter)Similar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
64.9%
Christian Leary run for 2 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
65.9%
Devin Miles run for 7 yds to the UNT 11Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
65.3%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the UNT 9Similar
Q3 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
68.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the UNT 8Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
68.7%
Broc Lowry run for 8 yds to the UNT 0, for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
92.2%
Broc Lowry pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the WMU 49Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
92.8%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
93.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
93.7%
Western Michigan Penalty, False Start (Gavin Dabo) to the WMU 48Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
93.9%
Ryan Millmore punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13END OF GAME
14 plays · -1 yds · 21:1067% → 99%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
67.2%
Makenzie McGill II run for 14 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
65.9%
North Texas Penalty, falsestart (Tay Yanta II)Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+31
68.8%
Drew Mestemaker run for 31 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
63.6%
Makenzie McGill II run for 9 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+18
64.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass to Tre Williams III for 18 yds to the WMU 0, for a TD for a 1ST down, North Texas Penalty, unsportsmanlikeconduct (Braydon Nelson)Similar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.4%
Broc Lowry run for 1 yd to the WMU 43Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
96.5%
Broc Lowry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+10
98.3%
Broc Lowry run for 10 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
98.5%
(00:54) LOWRY, Broc pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BROOKS, Baylin thrown to the UNT14, clock 00:50. PENALTY WMU Personal Foul on DABO, Gavin enforced 15 yards from the UNT47 to the WMU38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 25
OWN 38
+3
98.3%
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
98.2%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMU 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 22
OWN 41
0
98.7%
Brady Jones pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
16 plays · 25 yds · 34:2376% → 96%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
76.1%
Devin Miles run for 2 yds to the WMU 41Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
76.5%
Devin Miles run for 6 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
76.0%
Jalen Buckley run for 5 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
78.8%
Broc Lowry sacked by Ethan Day for a loss of 9 yards to the WMU 43Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+26
80.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 26 yds to the UNT 31Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
83.3%
Devin Miles runSimilar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
84.4%
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+3
85.0%
Broc Lowry run for 3 yds to the UNT 25Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
84.7%
Palmer Domschke 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
95.7%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the WMU 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+14
95.7%
MESTEMAKER, Drew pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS III, Tre thrown to the WMU1. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on SIMS, Jarvarius enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the WMU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
95.7%
Makenzie McGill II run for 2 yds to the WMU 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
95.7%
MESTEMAKER, Drew pass to the right incomplete intended for DORNER, Cameron. PENALTY WMU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SIMS, Jarvarius enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the WMU5 to the WMU3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.7%
Makenzie McGill II 3 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1022% → 47%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
77.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 1 yd to the UNT 36Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+7
78.5%
Kiefer Sibley run for 7 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
78.0%
Kiefer Sibley run for 3 yds to the UNT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
77.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 3 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
77.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+5
78.9%
Western Michigan Penalty, Offsides (Nadame Tucker) to the WMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
78.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 32 yds to the WMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
76.4%
Makenzie McGill II run for 6 yds to the WMU 4Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 4 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2037% → 32%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
62.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 11 yds to the UNT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
62.2%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Makenzie McGill II) to the UNT 12Similar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
62.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Makenzie McGill II for no gain to the UNT 12Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 15
OWN 12
-9
63.5%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Rodney McGraw for a loss of 9 yards to the UNT 3Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 24
OWN 3
+16
66.6%
Makenzie McGill II run for 16 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
68.4%
Sawyer Evans punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Keivin Boone-Nelson II at the WMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 1:4333% → 53%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.1%
MESTEMAKER, Drew sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the UNT19 (FRANKLIN, Josh), clock 03:18. PENALTY WMU Holding on SIMS, Jarvarius enforced 10 yards from the UNT25 to the UNT35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
67.4%
Drew Mestemaker run for 12 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
67.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tyrese Hunt-Thompson for 15 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
65.0%
MESTEMAKER, Drew pass short to the right incomplete intended for MCGILL II, Makenzie thrown to the WMU36, clock 02:10. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WMU38 to the WMU43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+23
67.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 23 yds to the WMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
58.7%
Jayden Becks run for 16 yds to the WMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
58.8%
Jayden Becks run for 2 yds to the WMU 2Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
64.6%
North Texas Penalty, False Start (Landon Sides) to the WMU 7Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
64.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
47.1%
Kali Nguma 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0066% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
65.6%
Jalen Buckley run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNT 30Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
0
62.3%
Broc Lowry pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 30
0
59.5%
Broc Lowry pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+48
79.1%
Palmer Domschke 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-79.1
TD · Q4 10:03
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 4 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
-25.5
FG · OT 0:00
Palmer Domschke 48 Yd Field Goal
+19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com