2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadFAMU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreFAMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:31 · Robert Engstler punt for 45 yds , Asaad Waseem returns for 5 yds to the FAU 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:15: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 24 yds for a TD Florida A&M Penalty, (15 Yards) to the FAMU 0 (Jackson Lee pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — FAU win probability +0.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:37: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 12 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:17: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:26: Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK) — FAU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:57: RJ Johnson III pass complete to Jamar Taylor for 27 yds for a TD (Daniel Porto KICK) — FAMU win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FAMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8FAMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 13:51FAMU 4th & 7 at FAMU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q1 7:09FAMU 4th & 13 at FAMU 24, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.4%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q1 5:13FAMU 4th & 15 at FAMU 20, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.5%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q2 9:23FAMU 4th & 8 at FAMU 27, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 6:31FAMU 4th & 9 at FAMU 26, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 4:52FAU 4th & 2 at FAMU 28, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%57% to convertField goal98.4%−0.160% to makePunt98.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:18FAU 4th & 7 at FAMU 11, up 36Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call98.7%87% to makePunt98.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:30FAMU 4th & 10 at FAU 28, down 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call1.3%60% to makePunt1.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 12:26FAU 4th & 19 at FAU 45, up 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 7:40FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q3 2:48FAMU 4th & 10 at FAU 38, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%30% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.138% to makePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 1:10FAMU 4th & 3 at FAU 14, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%51% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.184% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 1:10FAMU 4th & 3 at FAU 14, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%51% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.184% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q4 13:14FAU 4th & 9 at FAMU 37, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%32% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.140% to makePunt99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:09FAU 4th & 1 at FAMU 1, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%59% to convertField goal99.7%−0.294% to makePunt99.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 5:22FAMU 4th & 5 at FAMU 30, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:53FAU 4th & 10 at FAMU 30, up 39Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%56% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:10FAMU 4th & 8 at FAMU 27, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:07FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 36, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FAMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:15FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick90.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:37FAU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:17FAU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:26FAU Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:57FAMU Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:23FAMU Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:09FAU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAMUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:049% → 9%
FAUDrive 2TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:1391% → 91%
Q1 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+10
90.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 10 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
90.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 8 yds to the FAU 45Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 16
OPP 24
+24
90.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 24 yds for a TD Florida A&M Penalty, (15 Yards) to the FAMU 0 (Jackson Lee pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 3PUNT TD8 plays · 14 yds · 3:4210% → 9%
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-5
90.4%
PENALTY FAMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FAMU27 to FAMU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 15
OWN 22
-7
90.3%
RJ Johnson III sacked by Wilky Denaud for a loss of 7 yards to the FAMU 15Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 22
OWN 15
+9
90.4%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for 9 yds to the FAMU 24Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
91.1%
Robert Engstler punt blocked by Josh Roberts blocked by Josh Roberts for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:049% → 9%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
91.0%
Ricky Taylor run for 21 yds to the FAMU 4 Ricky Taylor fumbled, recovered by FAMU RJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+11
91.1%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Jamal Hailey for 11 yds to the FAMU 20Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
91.1%
Robert Engstler punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the FAU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD9 plays · 67 yds · 2:2591% → 94%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
91.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 9 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
91.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 6 yds to the FAMU 45Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+14
91.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for 14 yds to the FAMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
91.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 12 yds to the FAMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
91.7%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short left thrown to FAMU00 QB hurried by Lee,Ah'mare, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FAMU Pass Interference (Huggins,T.J.) 7 yards from FAMU19 to FAMU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
93.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 12 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · -10 yds · 2:476% → 6%
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.7%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Miles Campbell for 12 yds to the FAMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
93.7%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Jamar Taylor for 3 yds to the FAMU 34Similar
Q1 0:18
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-32
94.2%
RJ Johnson III sacked by Leon Hart Jr. for a loss of 32 yards to the FAMU 2 RJ Johnson III fumbled, recovered by FAMU Ricky Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 32
OWN 15
+21
94.3%
Robert Engstler punt for 70 yds , Easton Messer returns for 21 yds to the FAU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD12 plays · 64 yds · 4:1494% → 97%
Q2 14:23
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-5
94.4%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Atcavage,Alex) 5 yards from FAU42 to FAU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 9
50
+16
95.2%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 16 yds to the FAMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+5
95.4%
PENALTY FAMU Offside (McKenzie,Caleb) 5 yards from FAMU29 to FAMU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
95.7%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 7 yds to the FAMU 17Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:452% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4798% → 98%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
97.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 15 yds to the FAMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+15
98.1%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Veltkamp,Caden pass incomplete short right to Platt,Jayshon thrown to FAMU00 PENALTY FAMU Pass Interference (Huggins,T.J.) 15 yards from FAMU18 to FAMU03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 3 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:481% → 1%
Q2 6:31
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
98.8%
Robert Engstler punt for 45 yds , Asaad Waseem returns for 5 yds to the FAU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11FG10 plays · 55 yds · 2:4699% → 99%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+30
98.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Easton Messer for 30 yds to the FAMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+8
98.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 8 yds to the FAMU 28Similar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
98.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Quincy Brown for 10 yds to the FAMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 12MISSED FG15 plays · 47 yds · 2:431% → 1%
Q2 2:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.2%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Andrew Ritter for 6 yds to the FAMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.3%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Levontai Summersett for 4 yds to the FAMU 41Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+16
99.2%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Jamal Hailey for 16 yds to the FAU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+12
99.2%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Justin Bostic for 12 yds to the FAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 39 yds · 0:1999% → 99%
FAUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2599% → 99%
Q3 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+10
99.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Xavier Terrell for 10 yds to the FAMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
99.4%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Xavier Terrell for a loss of 1 yard to the FAMU 47Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-8
99.4%
Caden Veltkamp sacked by Antonio Camon for a loss of 8 yards to the FAU 45Similar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Logan Lupo punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Latarie Kinsler at the FAMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 15TD7 plays · 85 yds · 3:191% → 1%
Q3 10:13
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
99.5%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Armand Burris for 10 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
99.4%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Levontai Summersett for 10 yds to the FAU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.1%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Jamar Taylor for 27 yds for a TD (Daniel Porto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for no gain to the FAU 25Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 7 yds to the FAU 32Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.6%
Logan Lupo punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FAMU 24 , Jalen Rogers returns for 4 yds to the FAMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 17DOWNS15 plays · 62 yds · 6:140% → 0%
Q3 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+10
99.6%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Johnson III,RJ pass intercepted by Philord,Wendol at FAU48 Philord,Wendol return 15 yards to the FAMU37, out of bounds at FAMU37 PENALTY FAU Holding (Tooley III,Chris) 10 yards from FAMU26 to FAMU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
99.6%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Levontai Summersett for 8 yds to the FAMU 45Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
99.6%
Thad Franklin Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
50
+12
99.6%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Jamal Hailey for 12 yds to the FAU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.6%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Armand Burris for 2 yds to the FAU 40Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+2
99.8%
RJ Johnson III pass complete to Jamal Hailey for 2 yds to the FAU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18TD12 plays · 86 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
99.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Joseph Young for 2 yds to the FAU 16Similar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Gemari Sands for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU 35Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+27
99.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Joseph Young for 27 yds to the FAMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+14
99.8%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 14 yds to the FAMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 21 yds for a TD Asaad Waseem fumbled, recovered by FAU Asaad Waseem for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 19TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:470% → 0%
FAUDrive 20TD10 plays · 68 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.9%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 13 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
99.9%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 13 yds to the FAMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+33
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Branden Hoch for 33 yds to the FAMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Kaden Shields-Dutton run for 1 yd for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:300% → 0%
FAUDrive 22FG6 plays · 36 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
99.9%
Jordan Magwood pass complete to Jabari Smith for 18 yds to the FAMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:370% → 0%
FAUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 0:07
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+10
100.0%
Logan Lupo punt for 55 yds , Justin Bostic returns for 10 yds to the FAMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAMUDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:37
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Asaad Waseem for 12 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 10:17
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 14 yds for a TD (Garrison Smith KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q1 11:15
Caden Veltkamp pass complete to Dominique Henry for 24 yds for a TD Florida A&M Penalty, (15 Yards) to the FAMU 0 (Jackson Lee pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
+0.3