2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadCAM aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreCAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:10 · Tomas O'Halloran punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:21: London Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:58: Alex Crabb 29 yd FG GOOD — CAM win probability +0.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:50: Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 55 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:59: Parker Jenkins run for 17 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:22: Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4CAM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 9:42CAM 4th & 8 at CAM 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q1 0:00CAM 4th & 1 at ECU 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%71% to convertField goal4.5%−0.451% to makePunt4.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 12:58CAM 4th & 10 at ECU 12, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.225% to convertField goalTheir call4.8%86% to makePunt3.6%−1.2average punt
- Q2 9:35ECU 4th & 2 at CAM 9, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%54% to convertField goal95.8%−0.389% to makePunt94.2%−1.9average punt
- Q2 7:17CAM 4th & 10 at CAM 8, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.427% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%average punt
- Q2 4:14CAM 4th & 12 at CAM 20, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.321% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q3 7:10CAM 4th & 6 at CAM 41, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 1:01CAM 4th & 2 at CAM 33, down 46Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:10ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 48, up 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 12:34CAM 4th & 3 at CAM 27, down 46Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:16ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 42, up 46Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:18CAM 4th & 9 at CAM 21, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:05ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 44, up 46Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:03CAM 4th & 6 at CAM 30, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:32ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:21ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:50ECU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:59ECU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:22ECU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:44ECU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:00ECU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:45ECU Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartECUDrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2297% → 97%
Q1 14:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
97.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
97.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 7 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+25
97.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 25 yds to the CAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+9
96.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 9 yds to the CAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
96.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 18 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:333% → 3%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.8%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Mike Chandler II for no gain to the CAM 23Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
96.8%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Spencer Jones for 10 yds to the CAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+5
96.6%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Barry Tate for 5 yds to the CAM 35Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
96.6%
Aidan Bonde punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD10 plays · 73 yds · 3:1697% → 97%
Q1 8:31
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+7
96.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
50
+15
96.4%
Campbell Penalty, Personal Foul (Donavan Philord) to the CAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
96.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 24 yds to the CAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 2 yds to the CAM 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 4FG22 plays · 85 yds · 8:083% → 5%
Q1 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+25
96.6%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Randall King for 25 yds to the CAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
96.4%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 10 yds to the CAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
96.3%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Barry Tate for 2 yds to the CAM 36Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+9
96.3%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Mike Chandler II for 9 yds to the CAM 45Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
96.3%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to JJ Cowan for 3 yds to the CAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
96.0%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Mike Chandler II for 7 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
95.9%
East Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the ECU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0396% → 97%
ECUDrive 6DOWNS7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5397% → 97%
CAMDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:043% → 3%
ECUDrive 8TD4 plays · 30 yds · 1:0797% → 98%
CAMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:323% → 3%
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
96.9%
(05:43) Shotgun Sixkiller,Kamden pass incomplete short right to Jones,Spencer thrown to CAM40 PENALTY ECU Offside (Craig,Ryheem) 5 yards from CAM22 to CAM27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+39
97.0%
Aidan Bonde punt for 36 yds , Kyler Pearson returns for 39 yds to the CAM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD13 plays · 46 yds · 2:4699% → 99%
Q2 3:38
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+8
98.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 8 yds to the CAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
98.5%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short middle to Johnson,Tyler thrown to CAM25 PENALTY ECU Holding (Trnavsky,Cooper) 10 yards from CAM36 to CAM46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+12
98.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 12 yds to the CAM 34Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+7
98.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 7 yds to the CAM 27Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
98.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyler Johnson for 9 yds to the CAM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 11END OF HALF7 plays · 23 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.6%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to JJ Cowan for a loss of 1 yard to the CAM 34Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
99.6%
(00:29) Shotgun Sixkiller,Kamden rush right for 3 yards loss to the CAM31 (Wilson,Zion) PENALTY ECU Personal Foul (Wilson,Dameon) 12 yards from CAM34 to CAM46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · 7 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.4%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Randall King for 9 yds to the CAM 34Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.2%
(14:34) Shotgun Sixkiller,Kamden pass incomplete deep left to King,Randall thrown to ECU45 PENALTY ECU Offside declined ECU Pass Interference (Reason,Rasheed) 15 yards from CAM34 to CAM49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.3%
Mike Chandler II pass complete to Spencer Jones for 2 yds to the ECU 49Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-5
99.3%
(13:56) Shotgun Lawrence,Ethan rush left for 0 yards to the ECU49 (Robinson,Jasiyah) PENALTY CAM Illegal Formation (Lee,Zy'Terrio) 5 yards from ECU49 to CAM46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-14
99.5%
Mike Chandler II sacked by Jasiyah Robinson for a loss of 14 yards to the CAM 32 Mike Chandler II fumbled, recovered by ECU Preston Carr , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD8 plays · 32 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 3 yds to the CAM 29Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
99.5%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete short left to Pettaway,Jaquaize thrown to CAM20 PENALTY CAM Offside (Wilson,A'mari) 5 yards from CAM28 to CAM23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
99.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 14 yds to the CAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.7%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Mike Chandler II for 3 yds to the CAM 25Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Mike Chandler II for 12 yds to the CAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.7%
(09:10) Shotgun Kearney,Naieem rush left for 1 yard loss to the CAM36 (Roseborough,Rion) PENALTY ECU Offside (DuJour,Kendrick) 5 yards from CAM37 to CAM42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+12
99.8%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Parker Jones for 12 yds to the CAM 41Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Aidan Bonde punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD12 plays · 83 yds · 3:55100% → 100%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
99.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 5 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+35
99.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Payton Mangrum for 35 yds to the CAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 7 yds to the CAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:520% → 0%
ECUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
Q4 14:50
3RD & 4
50
+2
99.9%
Mike Wright Jr. pass complete to TJ Engleman Jr. for 2 yds to the ECU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 12:34
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Aidan Bonde punt for 39 yds , Kyler Pearson returns for no gain to the ECU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Lacy,DeJuan rush right for 3 yards gain to the ECU37, out of bounds at ECU37 PENALTY ECU Illegal Formation (Neolien,Marleo) 5 yards from ECU34 to ECU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Mike Wright Jr. pass complete to Jyron Waiters for 5 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
PENALTY ECU Illegal Snap (Williams,Jeremiah) 5 yards from ECU34 to ECU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Mike Wright Jr. pass complete to Jyron Waiters for 10 yds to the ECU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 9:18
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Aidan Bonde punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kyler Pearson at the ECU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 8:05
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Tomas O'Halloran punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Randall King at the CAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:540% → 0%
ECUDrive 23TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Chaston Ditta pass complete to Malik Leverett for 8 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
100.0%
Chaston Ditta pass complete to Jyron Waiters for 17 yds to the CAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Chaston Ditta pass complete to Dillon Lorick for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Perez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 24END OF GAME9 plays · 25 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
(02:06) Shotgun Ferguson,Jalen pass incomplete deep left to Hart,RJ thrown to ECU50 PENALTY ECU Offside (Martin,Jacoby) 5 yards from CAM29 to CAM34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
100.0%
Jalen Ferguson pass complete to RJ Hart for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
50
+1
100.0%
Naieem Kearney run for 1 yd to the ECU 49 Naieem Kearney fumbled, recovered by CAM Naieem Kearney for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:59
Parker Jenkins run for 17 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 11:50
Katin Houser pass complete to Brock Spalding for 55 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q2 1:22
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+1.2