Try the model
UAB

UAB 24 at Navy 38

NAVY
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-2.3NAVY 87.6%Jalen Kitna pass complete to CorriMilliner for 25 yds for a TD (JonahDelange KICK)AWAY 14 - HOME 14 · Q2 14:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:14 · Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 25 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Pregame prior+35.4Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:16: Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 63 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +3.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:19: Jevon Jackson run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK) — UAB win probability +3.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Jonah Delange 40 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +4.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:12: Blake Horvath run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:57: Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK) — NAVY win probability +5.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 3:59NAVY 4th & 3 at UAB 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:14UAB 4th & 3 at NAVY 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:54NAVY 4th & 8 at UAB 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:00UAB 4th & 14 at NAVY 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−4.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:10UAB 4th & 10 at NAVY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−6.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:27NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:52UAB 4th & 22 at UAB 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−3.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:23NAVY 4th & 4 at UAB 39, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−1.0
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:48NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:10UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:10UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:36NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:41UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:06NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:14UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:16NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:19UAB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:12NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:57NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1893% → 93%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.0%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+65
92.9%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 65 yds to the UAB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.8%
Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 5Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
92.7%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the UAB 1Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.8%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:457% → 8%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 4 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
92.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
92.5%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 9 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
92.4%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 3 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
92.3%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 4 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+51
91.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 51 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2892% → 92%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.7%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
91.6%
Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
91.3%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
91.3%
Alex Tecza run for 8 yds to the NAVY 44Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
91.3%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
50
0
91.1%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Nathan KentSimilar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 10
50
+6
91.1%
Charles Robinson run for 6 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
91.0%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
90.9%
Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
90.8%
Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
90.5%
Shane Reynolds run for no gain to the UAB 33Similar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+4
90.1%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
90.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 20 yds to the UAB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.7%
Eli Heidenreich run for 9 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:449% → 12%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
91.1%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 21 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
90.5%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 6 yds to the NAVY 38Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
90.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 3 yds to the NAVY 35Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
90.2%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
89.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NAVY 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
89.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
89.9%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the NAVY 25Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+25
87.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 25 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:4388% → 90%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
88.3%
Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 30Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
87.9%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 24 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by UAB Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+13
87.3%
Blake Horvath run for 13 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
90.4%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 63 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4310% → 15%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
89.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 36 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down Navy Penalty, unnecessary roughness (Matthew Seliga) to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
89.0%
(11:35) Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete deep left to Milliner,Corri thrown to Navy00 PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Hamilton,Phillip) 12 yards from Navy24 to Navy12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
89.0%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Corri MillinerSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.5%
Jevon Jackson run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:1888% → 87%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.5%
Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
87.4%
Eli Heidenreich run for 19 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
87.8%
Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 49Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
87.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 8 yds to the UAB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
87.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 17 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
87.7%
Brandon Chatman run for 14 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
87.4%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the UAB 10Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
87.2%
Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the UAB 4Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-5
86.5%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Evans,Kendall) 5 yards from UAB04 to UAB09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-1
86.3%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 10Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
86.7%
Nathan Kirkwood 27 yd FG GOOD UAB Penalty, Running Into The Kicker (Devin Hightower) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 4:3414% → 20%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
86.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 11 yds to the UAB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
85.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 15 yds to the UAB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
85.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+17
84.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Elijah Lagg for 17 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
83.1%
Solomon Beebe run for 4 yds to the NAVY 42Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
82.3%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 2 yds to the NAVY 40Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+22
82.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 22 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
81.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NAVY 16Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
81.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to J.C. SivleySimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-5
82.6%
PENALTY UAB Delay Of Game (Kitna,Jalen) 5 yards from Navy16 to Navy21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+9
83.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 9 yds to the NAVY 12Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 12
-10
84.9%
(00:00) Delange,Jonah field goal attempt from 30 yards nullified by penaltyGOOD (H: Foley,Patrick, LS: Moser,Caleb), clock 00:00 PENALTY UAB Holding (Morgan,JonDarius) 10 yards from Navy12 to Navy22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+40
80.0%
Jonah Delange 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:3522% → 24%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
77.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UAB 41Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+12
77.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 12 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
75.9%
Jevon Jackson run for 12 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
74.8%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the NAVY 35Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
74.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Solomon Beebe for 17 yds to the NAVY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
73.8%
Solomon Beebe run for no gain to the NAVY 18Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
73.4%
Solomon Beebe run for 2 yds to the NAVY 16Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-2
73.9%
Isaiah Jacobs run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 18Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
75.7%
Jonah Delange 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:3378% → 75%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
78.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 16 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.6%
run for 5 yds to the NAVY 31 fumbled, recovered by UAB Blake HorvathSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+5
77.3%
Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
76.2%
Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 36Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
75.0%
Jacob Carlson punt for 48 yds , Iverson Hooks returns for no gain to the UAB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4826% → 25%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
74.3%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Corri MillinerSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+3
74.4%
Solomon Beebe run for 3 yds to the UAB 15Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+14
74.9%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 14 yds Iverson Hooks fumbled, recovered by UAB Giuseppe SessiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1780% → 89%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
79.8%
Blake Horvath pass incomplete to Eli HeidenreichSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
79.6%
Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 13 yds to the UAB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
79.6%
Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the UAB 15Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+9
79.2%
Alex Tecza run for 9 yds to the UAB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
78.6%
Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the UAB 4Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.1%
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0616% → 14%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
83.9%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete deep left to Milliner,Corri thrown to Navy24 PENALTY Navy Pass Interference (Hamilton,Phillip) 15 yards from UAB40 to Navy45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
82.6%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun Kitna,Jalen pass incomplete short right thrown to Navy38 QB hurried by Parker,MarcAnthony PENALTY UAB Holding (Moore,Logan) 10 yards from Navy45 to UAB45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 20
OWN 45
-2
84.4%
Solomon Beebe run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 43Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 22
OWN 43
0
84.7%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Corri MillinerSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 22
OWN 43
0
85.2%
UAB Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devin Hightower) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 22
OWN 43
0
86.0%
Patrick Foley punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 2:4687% → 96%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+24
87.0%
Blake Horvath run for 24 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
88.9%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 45Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+37
90.1%
Alex Tecza run for 37 yds to the UAB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
91.0%
Alex Tecza run for 17 yds to the UAB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Jalen Kitna pass intercepted MarcAnthony Parker return for no gain to the UAB 35Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
94.0%
Navy Penalty, Illegal Block (Phillip Hamilton) to the UAB 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0196% → 96%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 11
OPP 46
+8
96.0%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 8 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-4
96.1%
Blake Horvath run for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 42Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
96.0%
Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
95.7%
Jacob Carlson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17INT
14 plays · 77 yds · 7:006% → 6%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
94.3%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UAB 6Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+8
94.3%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 8 yds to the UAB 14Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+3
94.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the UAB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
94.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 1 yd to the UAB 18Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+11
94.4%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 11 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
94.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 3 yds to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
93.9%
Solomon Beebe run for 6 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
93.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
93.9%
Iverson Hooks pass complete to Jalen Kitna for 17 yds to the NAVY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
93.7%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Corri Milliner for 11 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
93.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 10 yds to the NAVY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
93.3%
Jalen Kitna sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 24Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+6
94.0%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Brandon Hawkins Jr. for 6 yds to the NAVY 18Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
94.1%
Jalen Kitna pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
13 plays · 27 yds · 3:2297% → 99%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.2%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 25Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.5%
Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 36Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+10
98.1%
Eli Heidenreich run for 10 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
98.3%
(02:55) Shotgun Heidenreich,Eli rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UAB48 (Smalls,Eamon; Smyre,James) PENALTY Navy Holding (Acevedo,Jaylin) 10 yards from Navy46 to Navy36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+5
98.2%
Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the NAVY 41Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
98.3%
Navy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+6
98.4%
Jackson Gutierrez run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 9
OWN 47
+9
98.7%
Jacob Carlson punt for 45 yds , Iverson Hooks returns for 9 yds to the UAB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Isaiah JacobsSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
98.6%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 6 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
98.6%
UAB Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devin Hightower) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
98.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
98.6%
Jalen Kitna pass incomplete to Iverson HooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
98.9%
(01:06) Kneel down by Navy at UAB24 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-1
98.9%
(00:30) Kneel down by Navy at UAB25 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:12
Blake Horvath run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q4 14:57
Alex Tecza run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
+5
FG · Q2 0:00
Jonah Delange 40 yd FG GOOD
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com