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ACU

Abilene Christian 7 at Tulsa 35

TLSA
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:17 · Stone Earle run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.6Pregame prior+14.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:34: Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 12 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +3.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:47: Seth Morgan 28 yd FG GOOD — ACU win probability +0.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:58: Seth Morgan 40 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +4.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:55: Dominic Richardson 57 Yd Run (Braylin Presley Pass to Kirk Francis for Two-Point Conversion) — TLSA win probability +6.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:57: Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 22 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ACU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:24ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:24ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:00TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:17ACU 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:23TLSA 4th & 2 at ACU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:56ACU 4th & 2 at TLSA 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:06TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 10, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:13ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:47TLSA 4th & 6 at ACU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:57ACU 4th & 15 at ACU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:04TLSA 4th & 12 at ACU 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.8%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:57TLSA 4th & 4 at ACU 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−2.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:58TLSA 4th & 8 at ACU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:10ACU 4th & 4 at TLSA 43, down 13
    Close callPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:38TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:23ACU 4th & 8 at TLSA 38, down 13
    Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:15ACU 4th & 8 at ACU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:07TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 29, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:42ACU 4th & 2 at TLSA 11, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:50TLSA 4th & 2 at ACU 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ACU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:34TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:55TLSA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:57TLSA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:46TLSA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:42ACU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2833% → 34%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.6%
Stone Earle run for 4 yds to the ACU 29Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
66.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for 1 yd to the ACU 30Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
66.5%
Stone Earle sacked by Byron Turner Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the ACU 28Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.5%
Hugo Nash punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 30Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.5%
Hugo Nash punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1866% → 66%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
66.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 13 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
66.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for 6 yds to the TLSA 37Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+8
66.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 8 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
66.4%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Dominic RichardsonSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+1
66.2%
Angus Davies punt for 46 yds , Tyson Williams returns for 1 yd to the ACU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 3DOWNS
16 plays · 87 yds · 5:3834% → 35%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
66.3%
Jordon Vaughn run for 9 yds to the ACU 19Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+26
66.2%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for 26 yds to the ACU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
65.8%
Stone Earle run for 7 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-2
65.6%
Stone Earle sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 5
50
+7
65.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for 7 yds to the TLSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
65.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TLSA 41Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+8
65.4%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for 8 yds to the TLSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
65.0%
Stone Earle run for 12 yds to the TLSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
64.8%
Jordon Vaughn run for 6 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
64.6%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 2 yds to the TLSA 13Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
64.8%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 3 yds to the TLSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.4%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Rovaughn Banks Jr.Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
64.4%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to J.J. HenrySimilar
Q1 6:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
64.8%
Stone Earle run for 9 yds to the TLSA 1Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
64.8%
Stone Earle run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
15 plays · 97 yds · 4:3765% → 70%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
65.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 7Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+5
65.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 12Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+4
64.8%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+36
65.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 36 yds to the ACU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
66.3%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Braylin PresleySimilar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
66.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 8 yds to the ACU 40Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
66.1%
Braylin Presley run for no gain to the ACU 40Similar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+15
65.5%
Dominic Richardson run for 15 yds to the ACU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
66.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 6 yds to the ACU 19Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+3
66.6%
Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the ACU 16Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
66.2%
Ajay Allen run for 4 yds to the ACU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
66.8%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
66.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Braylin Presley for no gain to the ACU 12Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
70.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 12 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:2630% → 31%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to Jordon Vaughn for 9 yds to the ACU 34Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
68.8%
Jordon Vaughn run for 4 yds to the ACU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+42
69.1%
Stone Earle pass complete to Javon Gipson for 42 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
67.5%
(00:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Earle,Stone pass incomplete deep left to Dudley,Dallas thrown to TULSA00 PENALTY TULSA Pass Interference (Green,Elijah) 15 yards from TULSA20 to TULSA05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
67.6%
Jordon Vaughn run for 3 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.6%
Jordon Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
68.3%
Jordon Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 2Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
69.1%
Stone Earle run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4370% → 69%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
69.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the TLSA 3Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+4
69.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 7Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+3
69.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 3 yds to the TLSA 10Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
69.1%
Angus Davies punt for 80 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4829% → 28%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
70.6%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 4 yds to the ACU 14Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-1
70.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the ACU 13Similar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
71.6%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for no gain to the ACU 13Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+9
72.2%
Hugo Nash punt for 47 yds , Zion Booker returns for 9 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:1772% → 72%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
72.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 7 yds to the ACU 44Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+4
72.6%
Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the ACU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
72.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 11 yds to the ACU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
72.9%
(09:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep right to Miller,Mekhi thrown to ACU00 PENALTY ACU Pass Interference (Malaska,Jocelyn) 15 yards from ACU29 to ACU14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
72.9%
Braylin Presley run for 4 yds to the ACU 10Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
73.0%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
72.5%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Landen LucasSimilar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
71.8%
Seth Morgan 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:3627% → 25%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
73.4%
Jordon Vaughn run for 3 yds to the ACU 33Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
73.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for 5 yds to the ACU 38Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
73.2%
Stone Earle run for 4 yds to the ACU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
73.5%
Stone Earle pass complete to Bryan Henry for 3 yds to the ACU 45Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
73.3%
Stone Earle pass complete to Luke Moffitt for 1 yd to the ACU 46Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-9
73.1%
Stone Earle sacked by Byron Turner Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the ACU 37Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
75.1%
Hugo Nash punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 4:4773% → 81%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
72.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 26Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
73.0%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+6
72.9%
Kirk Francis run for 6 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
73.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 6 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+10
74.8%
Braylin Presley run for 10 yds to the ACU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
75.2%
Braylin Presley run for 11 yds to the ACU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
75.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the ACU 31Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-5
76.5%
PENALTY TULSA False Start (Booker,Zion) 5 yards from ACU31 to ACU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
76.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 1 yd to the ACU 35Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+2
78.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the ACU 33Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-5
81.0%
PENALTY TULSA False Start (East,Cam) 5 yards from ACU33 to ACU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
81.1%
Angus Davies punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:5823% → 22%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
77.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for 7 yds to the ACU 17Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
77.6%
Jordon Vaughn run for no gain to the ACU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:5978% → 84%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.5%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
77.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 24 yds to the TLSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
78.8%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 49Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
78.7%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the ACU 45Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
78.4%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+6
77.3%
Kirk Francis run for 6 yds to the ACU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
79.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Josh Smith for 15 yds to the ACU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
80.3%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the ACU 22Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
80.5%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
79.6%
Ajay Allen run for no gain to the ACU 22Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
84.4%
Seth Morgan 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3219% → 17%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
81.3%
Jordon Vaughn run for 1 yd to the TLSA 48Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
82.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to Javon Gipson for 6 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
82.6%
Stone Earle run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
83.4%
Hugo Nash punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:2586% → 85%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
85.6%
(10:08) Shotgun Richardson,Dominic rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TULSA13 (Shaffer,Will; Plumley,Dorian) PENALTY TULSA Holding (Lucas,Landen) 3 yards from TULSA06 to TULSA03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 13
OWN 3
0
85.7%
Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the TLSA 3Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 13
OWN 3
+6
85.9%
Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the TLSA 9Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 7
OWN 9
-5
85.6%
PENALTY TULSA False Start (Hill,Sean) 5 yards from TULSA09 to TULSA04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+4
85.7%
Braylin Presley run for 4 yds to the TLSA 8Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+17
84.9%
Angus Davies punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TLSA 40 , Tyson Williams returns for 17 yds to the TLSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0617% → 15%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
83.5%
Stone Earle sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 5 yards to the TLSA 45Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+7
84.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 7 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
84.1%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Dallas DudleySimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
85.1%
Hugo Nash punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:2387% → 96%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
87.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+14
87.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 14 yds to the TLSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Micah TeaseSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.9%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Zion BookerSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.4%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Francis,Kirk pass incomplete deep left to Smith,Josh thrown to ACU42 broken up by West,Harold PENALTY ACU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TULSA25 to TULSA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
87.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 7 yds to the TLSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
88.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 5 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
89.4%
Braylin Presley run for 1 yd to the TLSA 43Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+57
95.7%
Dominic Richardson 57 Yd Run (Braylin Presley Pass to Kirk Francis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:293% → 3%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.6%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for 5 yds to the ACU 30Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
96.5%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 2 yds to the ACU 32Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
96.7%
PENALTY ACU False Start (Lynch,Colter) 5 yards from ACU32 to ACU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
96.9%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to Javon GipsonSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
97.1%
Hugo Nash punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zion Booker at the TLSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:0997% → 100%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
97.1%
Kirk Francis run for a loss of 2 yards to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 12
OWN 27
-8
97.6%
Tulsa Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kirk Francis) to the TLSA 19Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 20
OWN 19
+10
97.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 10 yds to the TLSA 29Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+16
97.5%
Braylin Presley run for 16 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
98.1%
Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the TLSA 46Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+27
98.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Micah Tease for 27 yds to the ACU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
98.2%
Dominic Richardson run for 5 yds to the ACU 22Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Brody Foley for 22 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Jordon Vaughn run for 10 yds to the ACU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Stone Earle pass incomplete to J.J. HenrySimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Stone Earle pass complete to J.J. Henry for 4 yds to the ACU 39Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-4
99.8%
Stone Earle pass intercepted Elijah Green return for 4 yds to the ACU 45Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-4
99.8%
Stone Earle pass intercepted Elijah Green return for 4 yds to the ACU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
Ajay Allen run for 5 yds to the ACU 40Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Kirk Francis pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+40
99.8%
Ajay Allen run for 40 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:570% → 0%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 4 yds to the ACU 29Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Stone Earle run for 5 yds to the ACU 34Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+21
99.9%
Stone Earle run for 21 yds to the TLSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
99.9%
Stone Earle sacked by Byron Turner Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the ACU 45Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Rovaughn Banks Jr. run for 1 yd to the ACU 46Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
PENALTY TULSA Offside (Cooper,Ty) 5 yards from ACU46 to TULSA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Earle,Stone rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TULSA44 (Anglin,Josh) PENALTY TULSA Offside (Hjelle,Joe) 5 yards from TULSA49 to TULSA44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+25
99.9%
Stone Earle pass complete to Javon Gipson for 25 yds to the TLSA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Stone Earle run for 4 yds to the TLSA 15Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
99.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TLSA 13 Jordon Vaughn fumbled, recovered by ACU Colter LynchSimilar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+2
99.9%
Jordon Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Stone Earle run for 11 yds for a TD (Kyler Meschi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22END OF GAME
15 plays · 32 yds · 6:36100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.9%
Ajay Allen run for 8 yds to the TLSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Kelvin Washington run for 6 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Stephen Kittleman pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
99.9%
Stephen Kittleman pass complete to Jacob Emmers for 9 yds to the ACU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Kelvin Washington run for 2 yds to the ACU 47Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-5
99.9%
(03:10) Shotgun Kittleman,Stephen pass complete short right to Miller,Mekhi caught at ACU30, for 25 yards to the ACU22 (West,Harold; Oku,Christian) PENALTY TULSA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (McClure,Evan) 5 yards from ACU47 to TULSA48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+9
100.0%
Stephen Kittleman pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 9 yds to the ACU 43Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+2
100.0%
Ajay Allen run for 2 yds to the ACU 41Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+3
99.9%
Kelvin Washington run for 3 yds to the ACU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
100.0%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ACU 40Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-2
100.0%
(01:07) Kneel down by Tulsa at ACU42 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-1
100.0%
(00:34) Kneel down by Tulsa at ACU43 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:55
Dominic Richardson 57 Yd Run (Braylin Presley Pass to Kirk Francis for Two-Point Conversion)
+6.3
FG · Q3 11:58
Seth Morgan 40 yd FG GOOD
+4.7
TD · Q1 1:34
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Booker for 12 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com