2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:11 · Derek Morris 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:02: Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 21 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +3.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:48: Evan Simon pass complete to Kajiya Hollawayne for 24 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +6.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:40: Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 29 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +8.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:40: Timeout Massachusetts, clock 05:40 — MASS win probability +7.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:59: Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 13 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK) — TEM win probability +12.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 12:52MASS 4th & 1 at TEM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.1%71% to convertField goal45.9%−0.251% to makePunt45.8%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:11MASS 4th & 10 at TEM 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snapGo for it48.4%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call48.8%72% to makePunt46.9%−1.9average punt
- Q2 14:55TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snapGo for it47.8%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.7%average punt
- Q2 7:48MASS 4th & 2 at TEM 2, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.1%48% to convertField goal44.6%−1.594% to makePunt38.7%−7.4average punt
- Q2 4:17MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 38, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it32.3%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%average punt
- Q2 2:34TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 14, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it64.8%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.0%average punt
- Q2 0:26MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 31, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it19.6%−1.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q3 9:37TEM 4th & 4 at MASS 41, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 85.7% before the snapGo for it86.0%48% to convertField goal84.3%−1.832% to makePuntTheir call84.8%−1.2average punt
- Q4 10:23MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 35, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.7%average punt
- Q4 4:06MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 11:25MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.4%97% to makeGo for two47.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:02TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.6%97% to makeGo for two51.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:48TEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.1%97% to makeGo for two54.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:40TEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:59TEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.1%97% to makeGo for two77.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:39TEM Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 6:26TEM Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2940% → 42%
Q1 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
39.8%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Rose,Brandon pass incomplete deep middle to Harding,T.Y. thrown to Temple20 PENALTY Temple Pass Interference (Osueke,Ben) 15 yards from UMass44 to Temple41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+8
40.2%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 8 yds to the TEM 32Similar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
40.9%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 11 yds to the TEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2TD14 plays · 90 yds · 6:1258% → 60%
Q1 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
44.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 7 yds to the TEM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+11
44.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 11 yds to the TEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
44.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 11 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
40.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 21 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3FG12 plays · 53 yds · 3:5143% → 46%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.8%
PENALTY UMass False Start (Roy Jr.,Benjamin) 5 yards from UMass25 to UMass20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
43.0%
Brandon Rose pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 4 yds to the MASS 27Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
42.6%
Brandon Rose pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 10 yds to the MASS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+39
44.4%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 39 yds to the TEM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 5
OPP 17
-5
45.5%
PENALTY UMass False Start (Mosesso,Ryan) 5 yards from Temple17 to Temple22. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0455% → 53%
Q2 14:55
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
47.2%
Dante Atton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by T.Y. Harding at the MASS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 23 yds · 2:1947% → 49%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
46.8%
Brandon Rose pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 6 yds to the MASS 40Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+9
47.0%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 9 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
49.2%
Brandon Rose run for 10 yds to the MASS 41 Brandon Rose fumbled, recovered by TEM Avery PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6TD4 plays · 41 yds · 0:3355% → 62%
MASSDrive 7DOWNS13 plays · 74 yds · 3:5240% → 41%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.4%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 4 yds to the MASS 29Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
40.6%
Brandon Rose pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 10 yds to the MASS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
41.5%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD6 plays · 99 yds · 1:5960% → 72%
MASSDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1535% → 29%
TEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4071% → 73%
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+7
28.0%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 7 yds to the TEM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT7 plays · -22 yds · 0:4829% → 26%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
28.6%
Brandon Rose sacked by Khalil Poteat for a loss of 10 yards to the MASS 27Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 20
OWN 27
-7
25.1%
Brandon Rose sacked by Cam'Ron Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 20Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 27
OWN 20
+5
25.0%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Juwaun Price for 5 yds to the MASS 15Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 32
OWN 15
+24
25.6%
Keegan Andrews punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MASS 48 , Tyler Stewart returns for 24 yds to the MASS 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12TD7 plays · 48 yds · 0:2977% → 90%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
22.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 23 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+10
22.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 10 yds to the MASS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
10.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 13 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:2919% → 17%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
18.6%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 14 yds to the MASS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 5 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 40 yds · 5:1284% → 87%
Q3 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-10
14.9%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Worthy,Terrez rush right for 12 yards gain to the Temple49 (McGill,Jeremiah), out of bounds PENALTY Temple Holding (Barajas,Diego) 10 yards from Temple37 to Temple27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+18
14.6%
Gevani McCoy pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 18 yds to the MASS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16INT12 plays · 86 yds · 4:3915% → 15%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
14.6%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 4 yds to the MASS 12Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+13
14.5%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 13 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
14.3%
Temple Penalty, Personal Foul (Eric Stuart) to the MASS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
15.4%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 4
50
+15
15.5%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Tyree Kelly for 15 yds to the TEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+15
15.6%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 15 yds to the TEM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
15.3%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jake McConnachie for 5 yds to the TEM 13Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+7
14.7%
(04:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Rose,Brandon pass incomplete short left to Dowling,Max thrown to Temple00 PENALTY Temple Holding (Davis,Ty) 7 yards from Temple13 to Temple06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD13 plays · 80 yds · 7:0191% → 99%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
7.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 23 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
6.1%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 8 yds to the MASS 27Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+10
5.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to JoJo Bermudez for 10 yds to the MASS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.8%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ryder Kusch for 3 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 10 yds · 2:081% → 1%
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.7%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
0.7%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Donnie Gray for 5 yds to the MASS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
0.7%
Brandon Rose pass complete to Brandon Hood for no gain to the MASS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD8 plays · 35 yds · 3:5099% → 100%
Q4 9:06
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+9
0.5%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ryder Kusch for 9 yds to the MASS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+13
0.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 13 yds to the MASS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Ryder Kusch for 2 yds for a TD Massachusetts Penalty, (Yards) declined (Carl Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 5:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
0.2%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Kenyon Massey for 4 yds to the MASS 32Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
0.2%
Grant Jordan pass complete to Kenyon Massey for 2 yds to the MASS 34Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Keegan Andrews punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Stewart at the TEM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER7 plays · 22 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.2%
(04:04) No Huddle-Shotgun McCoy,Gevani pass complete short right to Evert,Daniel caught at Temple15, for 1 yard loss to the Temple15 (Farris,Zach; Wiggins Jr.,Jermaine) PENALTY UMass Offside (Robinson,Aquan) 5 yards from Temple16 to Temple21. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:59
Evan Simon pass complete to Terrez Worthy for 13 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q2 5:40
Evan Simon pass complete to Peter Clarke for 29 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q2 5:40
Timeout Massachusetts, clock 05:40
+7.4