Try the model
TEM

Temple 25 at North Texas 52

UNT
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 28, 2025 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreTEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:05 · (04:08) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short left to #88 P.Clarke thrown to UNT20, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+15.9Home team on offense+25.3Score differential+17.2Garbage-time factor+6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:42: (02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short middle to #33 R.Kusch caught at UNT00, for 2 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:42 #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #49 I.Hayse) — TEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:09: (10:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 31 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates) — UNT win probability +3.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:22: Terrence Lewis 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick) — UNT win probability +4.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:25: (01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 6 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:25 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates) — UNT win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:39: (11:43) #20 J.Ducker pass complete short right to #88 P.Clarke caught at UNT01, for 16 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:39, 1ST DOWN #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #49 I.Hayse) — TEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 0 of 1TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:16TEM 4th & 13 at UNT 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:42TEM 4th & 2 at UNT 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:55TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:50TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:34TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 48, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:07UNT 4th & 2 at TEM 8, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:05TEM 4th & 9 at UNT 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:36TEM 4th & 8 at UNT 47, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:16TEM 4th & 8 at UNT 8, down 30
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:42TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:08UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:09UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:22UNT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:25UNT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:40UNT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:14TEM Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:25UNT Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEMDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:3710% → 11%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TEM33 (#32 E.Wesloski; #6 T.Fields)Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
90.3%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush left for 8 yards gain to the TEM41 (#6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
90.2%
(13:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UNT49 (#32 E.Wesloski; #12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
90.0%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNT44 (#90 E.Day)Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
89.8%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNT38 (#14 Q.Hammonds; #6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
89.6%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNT37 (#8 R.Outland Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+5
89.4%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short left to #17 J.Bermudez caught at UNT24, for 13 yards to the UNT24, out of bounds at UNT24 PENALTY TEM Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#77 D.Barajas) 5 yards from UNT37 to UNT42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 14
OPP 42
0
89.4%
(11:11) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete deep right to #17 J.Bermudez thrown to UNT13 QB hurried by #8 R.Outland Jr.Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+1
89.3%
(11:05) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #17 J.Bermudez caught at TEM49, for 1 yard to the UNT41 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
89.2%
(10:21) #7 D.Atton punt 40 yards to the UNT01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 99 yds · 1:5089% → 90%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
89.1%
(10:14) Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNT02 (#18 K.Surprenant). #18 K.Surprenant injured on the playSimilar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
89.0%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #22 L.Sides caught at UNT02, for 4 yards to the UNT06 (#39 J.Jones; #22 E.Stuart)Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+9
88.7%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #10 W.Young caught at UNT04, for 9 yards to the UNT15 (#15 J.Morton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
89.5%
(08:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNT23, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+77
89.7%
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #4 C.Dorner caught at UNT37, for 77 yards to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2710% → 14%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.6%
(08:15) Shotgun #6 E.Simon rush right for 1 yard loss to the TEM24 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
89.5%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short right to #11 K.Hollawayne thrown to TEM42Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+34
89.6%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete deep middle to #17 J.Bermudez caught at UNT42, for 34 yards to the UNT42 QB hurried by #94 J.Williams (#12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
89.0%
(06:50) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #1 C.Chase caught at UNT42, for 3 yards to the UNT39 (#12 P.Smith-Young)Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
88.9%
(06:11) Shotgun #6 E.Simon rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNT38 (#40 K.Huddleston)Similar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+13
88.8%
(05:27) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #11 K.Hollawayne caught at UNT29, for 13 yards to the UNT25 (#1 D.Fisher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
88.3%
(04:52) Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UNT09 (#12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
88.2%
(04:14) Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNT04 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.0%
(03:33) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short right to #33 R.Kusch thrown to UNT05Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
88.3%
(03:30) Shotgun #1 C.Chase rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNT02 (#14 Q.Hammonds)Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.3%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short middle to #33 R.Kusch caught at UNT00, for 2 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:42 #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #49 I.Hayse)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1788% → 89%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
87.7%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 12 yards gain to the TEM22 (#31 D.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
87.6%
(02:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TEM21 (#33 C.Ordonez; #29 A.Powell)Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+16
87.4%
(01:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #10 W.Young caught at TEM14, for 16 yards to the TEM05 (#29 A.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.3%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:08 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:0712% → 12%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.5%
(01:06) Shotgun #6 E.Simon rush left for 4 yards gain to the TEM29 (#90 E.Day)Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
88.3%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short left to #11 K.Hollawayne caught at TEM34, for 5 yards to the TEM34, out of bounds at TEM34Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 E.Simon rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEM36 (#6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
88.0%
(14:22) Shotgun #1 C.Chase rush left for 6 yards gain to the TEM42 (#0 W.Jones II; #2 D.Armstead)Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
87.5%
(13:37) Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TEM48 (#6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.4%
(13:00) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short right to #20 J.Ducker thrown to TEM44Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
87.6%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 0 yards to the TEM48 (#40 K.Huddleston)Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
87.6%
(12:08) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Chase thrown to UNT28 broken up by #1 D.FisherSimilar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
88.1%
(12:02) #7 D.Atton punt 51 yards to the UNT01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 99 yds · 1:3888% → 92%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+26
88.0%
(11:54) Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 26 yards gain to the UNT27 (#19 J.Castleberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+26
88.0%
(11:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep right to #1 M.Coleman caught at TEM47, for 26 yards to the TEM47, out of bounds at TEM47, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
88.6%
(10:59) Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #1 M.Coleman caught at TEM47, for 1 yard to the TEM46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+15
88.5%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #1 M.Coleman caught at TEM40, for 15 yards to the TEM31 (#29 A.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
92.0%
(10:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 31 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:169% → 9%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.9%
(10:07) Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEM27 (#32 E.Wesloski; #14 Q.Hammonds)Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
90.9%
(09:31) Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEM29 (#94 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-15
90.9%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass intercepted by #2 D.Armstead at TEM45 QB hurried by #6 T.Williams III #2 D.Armstead return 15 yards to the TEM30 (#52 E.King)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:0492% → 96%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
92.1%
(08:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #24 C.Hawkins caught at TEM22, for 24 yards to the TEM06 (#25 C.Stewart; #39 J.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
91.8%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TEM09 (#18 K.Surprenant; #52 R.Sykes)Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
91.8%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 W.Young rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TEM10 (#52 R.Sykes)Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
91.6%
PENALTY TEM Offside (#25 C.Stewart) 5 yards from TEM10 to TEM05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.0%
Terrence Lewis 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:265% → 5%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
95.1%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon rush right for 1 yard gain to the TEM27 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
95.3%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete deep left to #17 J.Bermudez thrown to UNT36Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+1
95.3%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon rush right for 1 yard gain to the TEM28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
95.4%
(04:55) #7 D.Atton punt 50 yards to the UNT22 fair catch by #1 M.Coleman at UNT22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:1396% → 99%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
96.1%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #4 C.Dorner caught at UNT25, for 22 yards to the UNT44 (#29 A.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
96.4%
(04:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNT47 (#55 S.Badmus)Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+15
96.5%
(03:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #10 W.Young caught at TEM42, for 15 yards to the TEM38 (#39 J.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.6%
(03:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete deep left to #22 L.Sides thrown to TEM02 broken up by #15 J.MortonSimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+16
96.6%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #22 L.Sides caught at TEM25, for 16 yards to the TEM22 (#24 B.Osueke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
96.8%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 4 yards gain to the TEM18 (#29 A.Powell)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
97.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short left to #10 W.Young thrown to TEM06Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+5
96.9%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short right to #4 C.Dorner thrown to TEM03 QB hurried by #8 A.Haye, Jr. PENALTY TEM Offside (#55 K.Terry) 5 yards from TEM18 to TEM13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+7
96.9%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TEM06 (#39 J.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 6 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:25 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
(01:23) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short left to #20 J.Ducker thrown to TEM27 broken up by #14 Q.Hammonds QB hurried by #40 K.HuddlestonSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.9%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #1 C.Chase caught at TEM33, for 10 yards to the TEM35 (#1 D.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.9%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #20 J.Ducker caught at TEM39, for 5 yards to the TEM40 (#32 E.Wesloski), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
98.8%
(00:59) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #88 P.Clarke caught at TEM44, for 8 yards to the TEM48 (#14 Q.Hammonds), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.9%
(00:55) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short right to #20 J.Ducker thrown to UNT35 QB hurried by #14 Q.HammondsSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
98.9%
(00:51) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short middle to #1 C.Chase thrown to UNT36 broken up by #2 D.Armstead QB hurried by #93 T.WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
98.9%
(00:44) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short left to #89 T.Stewart thrown to UNT35 QB hurried by #6 T.FieldsSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
99.0%
(00:38) #7 D.Atton punt 46 yards to the UNT06 fair catch by #1 M.Coleman at UNT06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:2799% → 99%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
99.0%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UNT15 (#39 J.Jones)Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+4
98.9%
(00:26) Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #24 C.Hawkins caught at UNT13, for 4 yards to the UNT19 QB hurried by #8 A.Haye, Jr. (#19 J.Castleberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
98.9%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNT31 (#29 A.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.9%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete deep left to #1 M.Coleman thrown to TEM40 broken up by #29 A.PowellSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
98.9%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UNT42, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.0%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UNT38 fumbled by #24 C.Hawkins at UNT35 forced by #25 C.Stewart recovered by TEM #29 A.Powell at UNT38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:077% → 4%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
93.0%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNT35 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
99.0%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush right for 6 yards gain to the UNT29 (#0 W.Jones II)Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
98.9%
(13:40) Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNT23 (#40 K.Huddleston; #6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.1%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNT22 (#12 P.Smith-Young; #90 E.Day)Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+6
99.1%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNT16 (#40 K.Huddleston)Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
96.3%
(11:43) #20 J.Ducker pass complete short right to #88 P.Clarke caught at UNT01, for 16 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:39, 1ST DOWN #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #49 I.Hayse)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:3197% → 98%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.0%
(11:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete deep middle to #10 W.Young thrown to TEM37 PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (#29 A.Powell) 15 yards from UNT25 to UNT40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
97.1%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 7 yards gain to the UNT47 (#56 K.Miles)Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+25
97.2%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #4 C.Dorner caught at TEM36, for 25 yards to the TEM28 (#29 A.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
97.3%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TEM21 (#39 J.Jones; #25 C.Stewart)Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+5
97.3%
PENALTY UNT False Start (#72 J.Obidegwu) 5 yards from TEM21 to TEM26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+10
97.4%
(09:44) Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 10 yards gain to the TEM16 (#29 A.Powell; #92 K.Poteat), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
97.5%
(09:11) Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #6 T.Williams III caught at TEM18, for 6 yards to the TEM10 (#19 J.Castleberry)Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
97.9%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #4 C.Dorner caught at TEM11, for 1 yard to the TEM09 (#15 J.Morton)Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
97.8%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TEM08 (#56 K.Miles; #18 K.Surprenant)Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+27
97.7%
(07:09) #40 K.Nguma field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates), clock 07:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 30 yds · 2:563% → 2%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
97.1%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEM36 (#6 T.Fields; #94 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+13
97.3%
(06:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 13 yards gain to the TEM49 (#0 W.Jones II; #97 J.Pierce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.3%
(06:06) Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNT45 (#32 E.Wesloski) PENALTY UNT Offside (#93 T.Washington) 5 yards from TEM49 to UNT46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 5
OPP 46
0
97.3%
(05:35) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete deep left to #1 C.Chase thrown to UNT17 broken up by #25 K.LewisSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+8
97.4%
(05:30) Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNT38 (#6 T.Fields), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
97.8%
(04:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Chase rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNT37 (#6 T.Fields; #90 E.Day)Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
97.8%
(04:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete deep middle to #33 R.Kusch thrown to UNT12Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
97.9%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short middle to #17 J.Bermudez thrown to UNT26Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
97.9%
(04:08) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short left to #88 P.Clarke thrown to UNT20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:1999% → 100%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.0%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNT40 (#18 K.Surprenant)Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
99.0%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush left for 11 yards gain to the TEM49 (#31 D.Pollard; #18 K.Surprenant), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.1%
(03:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass intercepted by #32 A.Laing at TEM04 PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (#32 A.Laing) 15 yards from TEM49 to TEM34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
99.1%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush left for 7 yards gain to the TEM27 (#98 J.Auzenne)Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+2
99.1%
(02:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush left for 2 yards gain to the TEM25 (#18 K.Surprenant; #31 D.Pollard). #18 K.Surprenant injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
99.2%
(01:45) Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEM22 (#22 E.Stuart; #29 A.Powell), 1ST DOWN. #29 A.Powell injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
99.2%
(01:15) Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short right to #10 W.Young caught at TEM26, for 9 yards to the TEM13 (#42 J.Pierre)Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
99.8%
(00:43) Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #18 T.Lewis caught at TEM18, for 13 yards to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:40, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
(00:38) Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEM42 (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
99.8%
(00:05) Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush right for 9 yards gain to the UNT49 (#19 K.Allen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNT48 (#90 E.Day; #97 J.Pierce)Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
99.9%
(14:25) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short left to #89 T.Stewart thrown to UNT36Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+1
99.9%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short right to #26 K.Mason caught at UNT49, for 1 yard to the UNT47 QB hurried by #97 J.Pierce (#32 E.Wesloski)Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
99.9%
(13:40) #7 D.Atton punt 42 yards to the UNT05 fair catch by #22 L.Sides at UNT05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
99.8%
(13:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNT08 (#42 J.Pierre)Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+7
99.8%
(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush left for 7 yards gain to the UNT15 (#44 T.Alualu; #92 K.Poteat), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.8%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNT18 (#15 J.Morton)Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
99.8%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass incomplete short middle to #22 L.Sides thrown to UNT32Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+11
99.9%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UNT16 fumbled by #20 A.Gray at UNT17 forced by #92 K.Poteat recovered by TEM #32 A.Laing at UNT16 #32 A.Laing return 11 yards to the UNT05 (#22 L.Sides)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:050% → 1%
Q4 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
(11:22) Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass incomplete short right to #88 P.Clarke thrown to UNT00Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.7%
(11:17) Shotgun #20 J.Ducker rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:14 #33 R.Kusch pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
99.5%
(11:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short left to #10 W.Young caught at UNT12, for 3 yards to the UNT16 (#31 D.Pollard)Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
99.5%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNT19 (#92 K.Poteat)Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+75
99.5%
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep middle to #10 W.Young caught at TEM33, for 75 yards to the TEM06 (#13 D.Chavis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.5%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 5 yards gain to the TEM01 (#42 J.Pierre). #92 K.Poteat injured on the playSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
(08:27) Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 1 yard gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:25 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:030% → 0%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(08:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEM28 (#42 B.Knox)Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
(07:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush right for 7 yards gain to the TEM35 (#93 T.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+42
99.9%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.McCoy pass complete deep right to #1 C.Chase caught at UNT35, for 42 yards to the UNT23 (#16 G.Stroud), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNT Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
(06:38) Shotgun #13 G.McCoy pass complete short middle to #89 T.Stewart caught at UNT20, for 4 yards to the UNT19 (#6 T.Fields)Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
99.9%
(06:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 G.McCoy pass incomplete short right to #88 P.Clarke thrown to UNT00Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+10
99.9%
(05:56) Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UNT09 (#16 G.Stroud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.9%
(05:13) Shotgun #13 G.McCoy pass incomplete short right to #29 H.Smith thrown to UNT00Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
(05:09) Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UNT08 (#97 J.Pierce)Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
(04:25) Shotgun #13 G.McCoy pass incomplete short left to #33 R.Kusch thrown to UNT00 QB hurried by #6 T.FieldsSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
99.9%
(04:19) #98 C.Hardin field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #49 I.Hayse), clock 04:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23END OF GAME
12 plays · 8 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
(04:14) Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush left for 0 yards to the UNT31 (#42 J.Pierre)Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
99.9%
(03:40) Shotgun #12 C.Jimerson Jr. rush right for 9 yards gain to the UNT40, out of bounds at UNT40Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNT46 (#8 A.Haye, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Jimerson Jr. pass complete short right to #87 B.Young Jr. caught at UNT47, for 3 yards to the UNT49, out of bounds at UNT49 PENALTY UNT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#76 D.Magiya) 5 yards from UNT46 to UNT41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
100.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #12 C.Jimerson Jr. rush right for 0 yards to the UNT41 (#27 D.Ward-Grant)Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+20
100.0%
(01:21) Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush left for 59 yards gain (10) to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:12 PENALTY UNT Holding (#80 B.Tipton) 10 yards from TEM49 to UNT41Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-1
100.0%
(01:05) Kneel down by #12 C.Jimerson Jr. at UNT40 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 16
OWN 40
-1
100.0%
(00:19) Kneel down by #12 C.Jimerson Jr. at UNT39 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:22
Terrence Lewis 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)
+4.4
TD · Q2 10:09
(10:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush right for 31 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09, 1ST DOWN #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
+3.5
TD · Q3 11:39
(11:43) #20 J.Ducker pass complete short right to #88 P.Clarke caught at UNT01, for 16 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:39, 1ST DOWN #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #49 I.Hayse)
-2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com