Try the model
UTC

Chattanooga 10 at Memphis 45

MEM
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUTC aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUTC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:02 · Heath Jehu punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the MEM 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+9.5Home team on offense+36.5Score differential+30.6Blowout margin+16.5Garbage-time factor+11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:44: Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +0.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:57: Sutton Smith run for 35 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:18: Brendon Lewis run for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 9:20: Jude Kelley 32 yd FG GOOD Memphis Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined — UTC win probability +1.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:27: Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK) — MEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UTC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:45UTC 4th & 2 at MEM 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:47UTC 4th & 12 at UTC 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:29MEM 4th & 2 at UTC 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:15UTC 4th & 9 at UTC 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:20UTC 4th & 9 at MEM 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:19UTC 4th & 4 at MEM 25, down 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:37UTC 4th & 15 at UTC 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:13MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 45, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:01UTC 4th & 7 at UTC 23, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:09MEM 4th & 3 at UTC 19, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:50UTC 4th & 3 at MEM 3, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:28MEM 4th & 7 at MEM 46, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:02UTC 4th & 1 at UTC 39, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:44MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:57MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:18MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:27MEM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:02MEM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:50UTC Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:00MEM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTCDrive 1MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:013% → 3%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.3%
Justus Durant run for 1 yd to the UTC 47Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+10
97.2%
Camden Orth pass complete to Josh Williams for 10 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.1%
Justus Durant run for 3 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
97.0%
Camden Orth run for 5 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
96.9%
Ryan Ingram run for no gain to the MEM 35Similar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+15
96.8%
Jude Kelley 53 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by William Whitlow Jr. (11:45) Kelley,Jude field goal attempt from 53 yards NO GOOD blocked by Whitlow Jr.,William (H: Jehu,Heath, LS: Reid,Grant), clock 11:45 recovered by MEM Whitlow Jr.,William at MEM47 Whitlow Jr.,William return 15 yards to the UTC38 (Kelley,Jude). , William Whitlow Jr. return for 15 yds to the UTC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:5297% → 97%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
96.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the UTC 35Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
96.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the UTC 29Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
96.7%
Makari Bodiford run for 6 yds to the UTC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
96.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Sutton Smith for 2 yds to the UTC 21Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
96.6%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTC 16Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+6
96.4%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the UTC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
96.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Kluse for 2 yds to the UTC 8Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.6%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:494% → 4%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.5%
Ryan Ingram run for 2 yds to the UTC 27Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
96.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to Jamarii Robinson for 5 yds to the UTC 32Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-9
96.3%
Camden Orth sacked by Jalen Bell for a loss of 9 yards to the UTC 23Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+16
96.3%
Heath Jehu punt for 55 yds , Sutton Smith returns for 16 yds to the MEM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:4296% → 97%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
96.3%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 9 yds to the MEM 47Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
96.3%
Greg Desrosiers Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
96.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 4 yds to the UTC 45Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
96.2%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Kluse for 4 yds to the UTC 41Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
96.1%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Bryce DorseySimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+6
96.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 6 yds to the UTC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.8%
Sutton Smith run for 35 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:334% → 4%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
96.5%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
96.6%
Justus Durant run for 3 yds to the UTC 18Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+2
96.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Justus Durant for 2 yds to the UTC 16Similar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
96.5%
Heath Jehu punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the MEM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:4697% → 98%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
96.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
96.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Bryce DorseySimilar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+19
96.7%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 19 yds to the UTC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.8%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the UTC 40Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+18
96.8%
Frank Peasant run for 18 yds to the UTC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.8%
Brendon Lewis run for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 7FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:512% → 3%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.7%
Ryan Ingram run for 21 yds to the UTC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
97.6%
Camden Orth sacked by Sam Brumfield for a loss of 3 yards to the UTC 43Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
97.8%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to John McIntyreSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+16
97.8%
Camden Orth pass complete to Markell Quick for 16 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
97.6%
Ryan Ingram run for 11 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
97.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to John McIntyre for 15 yds to the MEM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
97.5%
PENALTY UTC False Start (Paul,Nick) 5 yards from MEM15 to MEM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 15
OPP 20
-5
97.6%
Camden Orth run for a loss of 5 yards to the MEM 25 Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by UTCSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+11
97.7%
Ryan Ingram run for 11 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
97.7%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Jamarii RobinsonSimilar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
96.6%
Jude Kelley 32 yd FG GOOD Memphis Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:3997% → 98%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
97.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 7 yds to the MEM 34Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+28
97.1%
Frank Peasant run for 13 yds to the UTC 47 for a 1ST down Chattanooga Penalty, Personal Foul (Amanuel Dickson) to the UTC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
97.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 8 yds to the UTC 30Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+6
97.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 6 yds to the UTC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
96.9%
Jamari Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UTC 22Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
96.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Marcello BusseySimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+22
98.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:023% → 6%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.0%
Ryan Ingram run for 11 yds to the UTC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
96.8%
(05:50) Shotgun Orth,Camden pass incomplete deep right to Williams,Josh thrown to MEM35 PENALTY MEM Pass Interference (Logan Jr.,Chauncey) 15 yards from UTC36 to MEM49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
96.3%
Ryan Ingram run for 1 yd to the MEM 48Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+17
96.3%
Camden Orth run for 17 yds to the MEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
96.0%
Justus Durant run for 4 yds to the MEM 27Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-1
95.7%
Justus Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 28Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+3
96.2%
Justus Durant run for 3 yds to the MEM 25Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
93.9%
Jude Kelley 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
98.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 13 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
98.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jamari Hawkins for 17 yds to the UTC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
98.8%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the UTC 37Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-20
98.8%
Brendon Lewis pass intercepted Marquise Freeman return for 20 yds to the UTC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:185% → 4%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.5%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Taylor CrumedySimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
95.4%
Justus Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTC 45Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-4
96.4%
Justus Durant run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTC 41Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
95.8%
Heath Jehu punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the MEM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
98.6%
Sutton Smith run for 6 yds to the MEM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 13INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.6%
Ryan Ingram run for 11 yds to the UTC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Josh Williams for 5 yds to the UTC 41Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Camden Orth pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2699% → 99%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
98.9%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+9
99.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Ger-Cari Caldwell for 9 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
99.1%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Sutton rush middle for 0 yards to the MEM39 (Rutledge,Zion) PENALTY MEM Holding (Breland,Malachi) 10 yards from MEM39 to MEM29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+17
99.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 17 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-1
99.2%
Makari Bodiford run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 45Similar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Ger-Cari CaldwellSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.0%
Camden Orth run for 1 yd to the UTC 21Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
99.0%
Justus Durant run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTC 16Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+7
98.9%
Justus Durant run for 7 yds to the UTC 23Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
99.1%
Heath Jehu punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Sutton Smith at the MEM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:4599% → 100%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.2%
Sutton Smith run for 7 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+6
99.3%
Brendon Lewis run for 6 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
99.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Christian Ross for 14 yds to the UTC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.4%
Sutton Smith run for 3 yds to the UTC 35Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+5
99.4%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Brendon pass incomplete deep right to Kluse,Brady thrown to UTC00 PENALTY UTC Offside (Gilmore,Jestin) 5 yards from UTC35 to UTC30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
99.4%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the UTC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
99.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 4 yds to the UTC 22Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+5
99.6%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 5 yds to the UTC 17Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 17
-2
99.5%
Makari Bodiford run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTC 19Similar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
99.8%
Gianni Spetic 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 17INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-27
99.9%
Camden Orth pass intercepted DeMarco Ward return for 27 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:010% → 0%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Markell Quick for 13 yds to the UTC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Solomon Locke run for 2 yds to the UTC 40Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Markell Quick for 6 yds to the UTC 46Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+10
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to John McIntyre for 10 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Solomon Locke run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 45Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+28
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Nathaniel Eberly-Rodriguez for 28 yds to the MEM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Markell Quick for 5 yds to the MEM 12Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
99.9%
Solomon Locke run for 7 yds to the MEM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Solomon Locke run for 2 yds to the MEM 3Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Camden Orth run for no gain to the MEM 3Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to John McIntyreSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Josh Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Jude Kelley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Matt Adcock for 7 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the MEM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
99.9%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 42Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incomplete to Ger-Cari CaldwellSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+4
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Matt Adcock for 4 yds to the MEM 46Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Lachlan Carrigan punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:190% → 0%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
100.0%
Justus Durant run for 7 yds to the UTC 27Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Justus Durant run for 3 yds to the UTC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
100.0%
Justus Durant run for 1 yd to the UTC 31Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
100.0%
Justus Durant run for 7 yds to the UTC 38Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
100.0%
Justus Durant run for 1 yd to the UTC 39Similar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Heath Jehu punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jadon Thompson at the MEM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Bryce Dorsey for 6 yds to the MEM 30Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
99.9%
Memphis Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MEM 32Similar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Bryce Dorsey for 3 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+25
100.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 25 yds to the UTC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
100.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Bryce Dorsey for 2 yds to the UTC 31Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+19
100.0%
Brendon Lewis run for 19 yds to the UTC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
Frank Peasant run for 12 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Solomon Locke run for 7 yds to the UTC 32Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Solomon Locke run for no gain to the UTC 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
100.0%
Solomon Locke run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:18
Brendon Lewis run for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+1.1
FG · Q2 9:20
Jude Kelley 32 yd FG GOOD Memphis Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined
-1.1
TD · Q2 6:27
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Cortez Braham Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (Gianni Spetic KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com