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TAR

Tarleton State 30 at Army 27

ARMY
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2025 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadTAR aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreTAR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:54 · Charlie Mullen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARMY 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+8.8Home team on offense+9.7Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.6Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:47: Dawson Jones 24 Yd Field Goal — ARMY win probability +6.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Cale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick) — ARMY win probability +5.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:14: Hayden Reed 37 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick) — ARMY win probability +9.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:15: Caleb Lewis 6 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick) — TAR win probability +11.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:05: Dawson Hearne 15 Yd pass from Victor Gabalis (Brad Larson Kick) — TAR win probability +25.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TAR made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:07ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:05TAR 4th & 10 at ARMY 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:39TAR 4th & 4 at TAR 28, down 4
    Close callPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:12ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:10ARMY 4th & 5 at TAR 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:47ARMY 4th & 7 at TAR 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:00TAR 4th & 18 at TAR 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:24TAR 4th & 18 at TAR 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:24TAR 4th & 18 at TAR 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−2.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:54ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.1%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:07TAR 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−3.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−3.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54TAR 4th & 4 at TAR 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:03TAR 4th & 3 at TAR 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:13ARMY 4th & 11 at TAR 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:52TAR 4th & 7 at TAR 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−2.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:49ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:17TAR 4th & 12 at TAR 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−11.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TAR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:08ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:43TAR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:15ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:14ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:15TAR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:05TAR Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4382% → 82%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.1%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
81.9%
Noah Short run for 3 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
81.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
81.6%
James Wagenseller punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caleb Lewis at the TAR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 2FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:4719% → 20%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
81.5%
Tre Page III run for 3 yds to the TAR 25Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Tre Page III run for no gain to the TAR 25Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+14
81.3%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Trevon West for 14 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
81.0%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Cody Jackson for 3 yds to the TAR 42Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
80.7%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Cody Jackson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
80.5%
Tre Page III run for 7 yds to the ARMY 43Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+13
80.4%
Caleb Lewis run for 13 yds to the ARMY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
80.1%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Dawson Hearne for 17 yds to the ARMY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
79.9%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Caleb rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Army09 (Matteson,Collin) PENALTY Army Offside (Ford,Eric) 5 yards from Army13 to Army08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 5
OPP 8
-5
79.6%
(08:45) PENALTY Tarl False Start (Smith,Braden) 5 yards from Army08 to Army13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
79.5%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Trevon WestSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
79.5%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Trevon WestSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
79.7%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Trevon WestSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+30
79.6%
Brad Larson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4680% → 81%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.5%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
79.2%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 19 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
79.6%
Noah Short run for 6 yds to the TAR 49Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+11
79.6%
Noah Short run for 11 yds to the TAR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
79.2%
Hayden Reed run for 11 yds to the TAR 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
79.2%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the TAR 26Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
80.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for 26 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1520% → 20%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
80.0%
Victor Gabalis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAR 21Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+7
79.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Peyton Kramer for 7 yds to the TAR 28Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
79.8%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Cody JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
80.2%
Charlie Mullen punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1879% → 79%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
79.4%
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
79.6%
Noah Short run for no gain to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
79.0%
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.4%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
79.4%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 41Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+4
78.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for 4 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
78.6%
James Wagenseller punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Caleb Lewis at the TAR 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 6TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:2321% → 29%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
78.7%
Tre Page III run for 2 yds to the TAR 12Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
78.7%
Tre Page III run for 4 yds to the TAR 16Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
79.0%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Peyton Kramer for 5 yds to the TAR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+40
78.3%
Caleb Lewis run for 40 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
76.8%
Caleb Lewis run for 2 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
76.7%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Marquis WillisSimilar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+13
76.8%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Peyton Kramer for 13 yds to the ARMY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
75.8%
Tre Page III run for 3 yds to the ARMY 21Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
75.5%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Marquis WillisSimilar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+11
76.1%
Victor Gabalis run for 11 yds to the ARMY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.1%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Marquis WillisSimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
70.6%
Tre Page III 10 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7FG
20 plays · 67 yds · 7:4273% → 73%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
73.1%
Noah Short run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 24Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+35
72.5%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 35 yds to the TAR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
74.3%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the TAR 39Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+2
73.3%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the TAR 37Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+1
72.7%
Noah Short run for 1 yd to the TAR 36Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+7
71.2%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 7 yds to the TAR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
73.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 7 yds to the TAR 22Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+6
73.0%
Jake Rendina run for 6 yds to the TAR 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
72.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the TAR 13Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+5
72.6%
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds to the TAR 8Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
71.2%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the TAR 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
71.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAR 5Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
70.8%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the TAR 3Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
64.8%
PENALTY Army False Start (Gennarelli,Paolo) 5 yards from Tarl02 to Tarl07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
66.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the TAR 2Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
72.5%
Dawson Jones 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:4131% → 29%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
69.3%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Dawson Hearne for 15 yds to the TAR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
67.3%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Peyton Kramer for 3 yds to the TAR 43Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
66.8%
Tre Page III run for 4 yds to the TAR 47Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-10
66.5%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Page III,Tre rush left for 53 yards gain to the Army00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:15 PENALTY Tarl Holding (Smith,Hunter) 10 yards from Tarl47 to Tarl37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
69.8%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Peyton KramerSimilar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 13
OWN 37
-5
70.6%
PENALTY Tarl False Start (Jackson,Cody) 5 yards from Tarl37 to Tarl32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 18
OWN 32
+32
70.8%
Charlie Mullen punt for 39 yds , Lloyd Benson III returns for 32 yds to the TAR 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:3973% → 80%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+27
73.4%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 27 yds to the TAR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
74.0%
Dewayne Coleman run for 2 yds to the TAR 10Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
73.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the TAR 4Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
72.8%
Cale Hellums run for 3 yds to the TAR 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.1%
Cale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
81.5%
V. Gabalis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:2320% → 18%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
80.4%
Tre Page III run for a loss of 2 yards to the TAR 14Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
80.7%
Tarleton State Penalty, (Yards) to the TAR 14Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-6
81.4%
Victor Gabalis sacked by Kalib Fortner for a loss of 6 yards to the TAR 8Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+28
82.1%
Charlie Mullen punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TAR 24 , returns for 28 yds to the TAR 36 Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stephen Nnadozie) to the TAR 24Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+28
82.1%
Charlie Mullen punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARMY 38 , Lloyd Benson III returns for 28 yds to the ARMY 36 Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (Stephen Nnadozie) to the ARMY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2482% → 81%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
82.0%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the ARMY 39Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
81.8%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+7
80.8%
Noah Short run for 7 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 2
OWN 46
-3
81.0%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4322% → 21%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
77.9%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Peyton KramerSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
78.0%
Tre Page III run for no gain to the ARMY 43Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
79.0%
Caleb Lewis run for 9 yds to the ARMY 34Similar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
79.0%
Victor Gabalis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 35 Victor Gabalis fumbled, recovered by TAR Victor Gabalis , return for 1 yd to the ARMY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:4581% → 91%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
81.2%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 36Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
81.4%
Dewayne Coleman run for 1 yd to the ARMY 37Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
82.1%
(09:43) Shotgun Coleman,Dewayne pass incomplete short left to Short,Noah thrown to Army46 QB hurried by Rice,Avian, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Tarl Pass Interference (Woods Jr.,Stephen) 8 yards from Army37 to Army45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
83.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 42Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
82.9%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+21
81.9%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 21 yds to the TAR 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
91.1%
Hayden Reed 37 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5211% → 25%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
89.2%
Tre Page III run for 28 yds to the ARMY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
87.8%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Cody Jackson for 8 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
87.4%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Dawson HearneSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+18
87.6%
Tre Page III run for 28 yds to the ARMY 11 for a 1ST down Tarleton State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Reginald Harden Jr.) to the ARMY 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
86.8%
Caleb Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 22Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+21
87.4%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Cody Jackson for 21 yds to the ARMY 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
87.0%
PENALTY Tarl False Start (Smith,Braden) 5 yards from Army01 to Army06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
75.1%
Caleb Lewis 6 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16INT
10 plays · 11 yds · 3:3483% → 84%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.3%
Hayden Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 24Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
82.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 23Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
81.8%
(03:56) Coleman,Dewayne pass incomplete deep middle to Short,Noah thrown to Army48, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Tarl Pass Interference (Emmons,Omar) 15 yards from Army23 to Army38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
84.2%
Jake Rendina run for 1 yd to the ARMY 39Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-10
84.2%
Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARMY 39Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+2
85.1%
Lloyd Benson III run for 2 yds to the ARMY 41Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-5
84.4%
(02:06) Coleman,Dewayne pass complete short left to Mott,Brady caught at Army41, for 8 yards to the Army49 (Kurns,Kasyus) PENALTY Army Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jeffcoat,Will) 5 yards from Army41 to Army36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+6
83.5%
Dewayne Coleman pass intercepted Kasyus Kurns return for a loss of 6 yards to the TAR 22Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+6
83.5%
Dewayne Coleman pass intercepted Kasyus Kurns return for a loss of 6 yards to the TAR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2919% → 17%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
81.3%
Tre Page III run for 1 yd to the TAR 23Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-4
81.7%
Victor Gabalis sacked by Eric Ford for a loss of 4 yards to the TAR 19 Victor Gabalis fumbled, recovered by TAR Victor Gabalis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+9
82.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Peyton Kramer for 9 yds to the TAR 28Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
83.1%
Charlie Mullen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARMY 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18INT
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:1188% → 89%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
88.0%
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the TAR 48Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
88.4%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the TAR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
88.7%
Dewayne Coleman run for 13 yds to the TAR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
89.2%
Jake Rendina run for 3 yds to the TAR 29Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+12
89.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 12 yds to the TAR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-40
89.3%
Dewayne Coleman pass intercepted Kasyus Kurns return for 40 yds to the TAR 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2218% → 17%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
82.5%
Tre Page III run for 1 yd to the TAR 42Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
82.5%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Cody Jackson for 6 yds to the TAR 48Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
81.6%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Cody JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
83.5%
Charlie Mullen punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
87.8%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 20 Hayden Reed fumbled, recovered by TAR Kasyus KurnsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 21TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4322% → 48%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
78.1%
Caleb Lewis run for 3 yds to the ARMY 17Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
78.1%
Caleb Lewis run for 2 yds to the ARMY 15Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
52.3%
Dawson Hearne 15 Yd pass from Victor Gabalis (Brad Larson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:4662% → 58%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.4%
Noah Short run for 7 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
64.9%
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
64.1%
Noah Short run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
50
-1
66.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 49Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-3
63.8%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 46 Dewayne Coleman fumbled, recovered by TAR Dewayne ColemanSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+15
59.7%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Mott for 15 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
66.1%
Noah Short run for a loss of 6 yards to the TAR 45Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 16
OPP 45
0
62.7%
Dewayne Coleman pass incomplete to Samari HowardSimilar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+5
60.0%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Noah Short for 5 yds to the TAR 40Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
58.2%
James Wagenseller punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1248% → 46%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
52.3%
Caleb Lewis run for 11 yds to the TAR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
50.1%
Caleb Lewis run for 3 yds to the TAR 34Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
49.4%
Victor Gabalis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
51.5%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Cody JacksonSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
54.1%
Charlie Mullen punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5663% → 55%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
63.3%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 44Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
62.1%
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
50
-3
62.8%
Hayden Reed run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 47Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
55.4%
James Wagenseller punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TAR 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:2753% → 45%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
47.5%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun Lewis,Caleb rush right for 4 yards gain to the Tarl34 (Larkin,Casey) PENALTY Tarl Holding (Smith,Braden) 10 yards from Tarl30 to Tarl20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+2
49.0%
Caleb Lewis run for 2 yds to the TAR 22Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 18
OWN 22
-3
49.1%
Caleb Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the TAR 19Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+9
53.3%
Caleb Lewis run for 9 yds to the TAR 28Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
55.0%
Charlie Mullen punt for 40 yds , Lloyd Benson III returns for no gain to the ARMY 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 26MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 1:0157% → 64%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
57.3%
Dewayne Coleman run for 6 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
61.3%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds to the ARMY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
61.4%
Cale Hellums run for 16 yds to the TAR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
63.6%
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Parker PoloskeySimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
63.1%
Cale Hellums run for 6 yds to the TAR 35Similar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+4
63.5%
Cale Hellums run for 4 yds to the TAR 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
66.0%
(00:09) Hellums,Cale pass incomplete, Spike PENALTY Tarl Illegal Substitution 5 yards from Tarl31 to Tarl26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+43
64.4%
Dawson Jones 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
52.7%
V. Gabalis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-52.7
TD · Q4 9:05
Dawson Hearne 15 Yd pass from Victor Gabalis (Brad Larson Kick)
-25.7
TD · Q3 5:15
Caleb Lewis 6 Yd Run (Brad Larson Kick)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com