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USA

South Alabama 26 at Texas State 49

TXST
2025 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2025 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:44 · (04:49) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 40 yards to the TXST30, out of bounds at TXST30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense+10.2Pregame prior+14.6Score differential+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.9Garbage-time factor+1.9Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:08: Timeout Texas State, clock 11:08 — TXST win probability +2.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:08: (01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 L.Pare caught at USA32, for 32 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:08, 1ST DOWN #86 T.Lyons pass attempt Successful — TXST win probability +0.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:03: (08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:03 #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner) — TXST win probability +0.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:48: Beau Sparks 50 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick) — TXST win probability +2.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:55: Jeremy Scott 35 Yd pass from Jared Hollins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USA win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:33TXST 4th & 2 at USA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23TXST 4th & 5 at USA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:48USA 4th & 5 at TXST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:08TXST 4th & 12 at USA 13, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:30USA 4th & 6 at USA 41, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:45TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:44USA 4th & 20 at USA 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:18TXST 4th & 7 at USA 40, up 16
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:26USA 4th & 4 at USA 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:43USA 4th & 2 at USA 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:03USA 4th & 8 at TXST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:32USA 4th & 16 at USA 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:27TXST 4th & 11 at USA 38, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%
    38% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:59USA 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 4:48TXST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:46TXST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:20USA Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:06TXST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:07USA Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:55USA Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 4:1975% → 74%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
74.7%
(14:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at TXST24, for 9 yards to the TXST24 (#17 D.Young)Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+8
74.7%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TXST32 (#10 D.Hughes; #5 C.Wallace, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
74.6%
(14:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST33 (#96 D.Wiseman)Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+18
74.5%
(13:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at TXST49, for 18 yards to the USA49 (#32 B.Myrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
74.6%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA47 (#32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
74.6%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #9 G.Burrell caught at TXST48, for 1 yard to the USA46 (#10 D.Hughes; #32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+5
74.4%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #9 G.Burrell caught at USA46, for 5 yards to the USA41 (#44 W.Felton IV)Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+18
74.3%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 18 yards gain to the USA23 (#5 C.Wallace, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
74.4%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA18 (#18 R.Moss Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
74.4%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #18 T.Stamey thrown to USA15Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
74.3%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #11 B.Sparks thrown to USA03Similar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
74.4%
(10:27) #95 T.Robles field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner), clock 10:23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 4:1426% → 27%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
74.1%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA42, for 17 yards to the USA42 (#4 K.Terrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
73.7%
(09:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA43 (#16 T.Cooks II; #29 T.Payne)Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+4
73.8%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #11 A.Eager caught at USA43, for 4 yards to the USA47 (#1 B.Crosby)Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
73.5%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Scott thrown to TXST45 PENALTY TXST Offside (#2 K.Alexander) 5 yards from USA47 to TXST48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
73.4%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TXST50 (#15 D.Russell; #29 T.Payne)Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 12
50
+17
73.5%
(08:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #9 J.Scott caught at TXST36, for 17 yards to the TXST33 (#9 J.Rios), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
73.0%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards loss to the TXST35 (#0 T.Jackson)Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+6
73.0%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #2 M.McCrumby caught at TXST35, for 6 yards to the TXST29 (#16 T.Cooks II)Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+1
73.0%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST28 (#29 T.Payne)Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-3
73.3%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush right for 3 yards loss to the TXST31 (#0 T.Jackson; #15 D.Russell) PENALTY USA Holding declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:5574% → 75%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+48
73.5%
(05:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete deep right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at USA28, for 48 yards to the USA21 (#2 J.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
74.4%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA19 (#26 P.Shattuck)Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
74.7%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush left for 19 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:40, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5522% → 23%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
78.4%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush right for 17 yards gain to the USA42 (#2 K.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.3%
(04:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Voisin thrown to TXST25Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
78.4%
(03:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 0 yards to the USA42 (#88 J.Sanders)Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+10
78.9%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #1 D.Voisin caught at TXST48, for 10 yards to the TXST48 (#20 M.Willis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
78.0%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 26 yards gain to the TXST22 (#4 K.Terrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
77.4%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Scott thrown to TXST01Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+21
77.6%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Eager rush left for 21 yards gain to the TXST01 (#2 K.Alexander; #9 J.Rios), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.5%
Kentrel Bullock 1 Yd Run (Davis Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FG
18 plays · 73 yds · 5:1481% → 85%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
81.0%
(01:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #18 T.Stamey caught at TXST17, for 7 yards to the TXST21 (#10 D.Hughes; #16 B.Dillard)Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+4
81.1%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST25 (#10 D.Hughes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.4%
(00:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST29 (#10 D.Hughes; #18 R.Moss Jr.)Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
81.6%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 14 yards gain to the TXST43 (#5 C.Wallace, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
82.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush left for 6 yards gain to the TXST49 (#30 A.Woods)Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
82.4%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA46 (#32 B.Myrick; #99 S.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
83.0%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USA40 (#10 D.Hughes; #43 J.Porco)Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
83.3%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA37 (#1 W.Miller)Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+8
83.1%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush right for 8 yards gain to the USA29 (#16 B.Dillard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
84.6%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at USA26, for 18 yards to the USA11 (#17 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
84.7%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush left for 1 yard gain to the USA10 (#5 C.Wallace, Jr.)Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-3
84.9%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards loss to the USA13 (#26 P.Shattuck)Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
85.3%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #7 L.Pare thrown to USA16Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+31
85.0%
Tyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2918% → 17%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.9%
(11:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USA37 (#7 R.Nolan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
81.7%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 3 yards loss to the USA34 (#0 T.Jackson)Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+6
82.9%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #81 B.Long caught at USA35, for 6 yards to the USA40 (#1 B.Crosby; #7 R.Nolan)Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+1
82.6%
(09:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA41 (#15 D.Russell)Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
83.0%
(08:29) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 59 yards to the TXST00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3989% → 89%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.0%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #7 L.Pare caught at TXST21, for 2 yards to the TXST22 (#2 J.Henderson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
88.7%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST24 (#91 N.Jennings)Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+1
89.0%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST25 (#44 W.Felton IV)Similar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
88.9%
(06:48) #38 D.Nunez punt 45 yards to the USA30, out of bounds at USA30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5416% → 15%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
83.7%
(06:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USA40 (#7 R.Nolan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.6%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short left to #82 T.Thomas thrown to USA41 broken up by #1 B.CrosbySimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
84.0%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 5 yards loss to the USA35 (#8 K.Washington)Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 15
OWN 35
-5
85.1%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins rush left for 5 yards loss to the USA30 (#16 T.Cooks II)Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
85.4%
(04:49) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 40 yards to the TXST30, out of bounds at TXST30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:1190% → 91%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
90.1%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at TXST41, for 13 yards to the TXST43 (#5 C.Wallace, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
90.6%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST45 (#1 W.Miller; #32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
90.7%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USA43 (#32 B.Myrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.1%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to #11 B.Sparks thrown to USA00Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
91.2%
(03:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush right for 3 yards gain to the USA40 (#32 B.Myrick; #25 T.Henry)Similar
Q2 2:24
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
90.8%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #7 L.Pare thrown to USA35Similar
Q2 2:18
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
90.5%
(02:17) #38 D.Nunez punt 32 yards to the USA08 fair catch by #1 D.Voisin at USA08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:5215% → 12%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
85.0%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA11 (#88 J.Sanders)Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
85.0%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA10 (#88 J.Sanders)Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+4
85.7%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA05, for 4 yards to the USA15 (#7 R.Nolan)Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+10
86.0%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush right for 10 yards gain to the USA25 (#1 B.Crosby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
85.6%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport sacked for loss of 6 yards to the USA19 (#2 K.Alexander)Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+4
86.6%
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #21 K.Phillips caught at USA12, for 4 yards to the USA23 (#16 T.Cooks II)Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
86.9%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush left for 8 yards gain to the USA31 (#18 C.Royal Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.8%
(01:26) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 29 yards to the TXST40, out of bounds at TXST40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:1190% → 91%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
90.2%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at TXST47, for 28 yards to the USA32, out of bounds at USA32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
90.7%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 L.Pare caught at USA32, for 32 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:08, 1ST DOWN #86 T.Lyons pass attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1713% → 12%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
87.1%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #82 T.Thomas caught at USA20, for 6 yards to the USA22, out of bounds at USA22Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
87.1%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA47. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep right to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA47, for 25 yards to the USA47, out of bounds at USA47, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+2
87.4%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA24 (#97 D.Woods)Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+2
87.8%
(00:50) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 39 yards to the TXST37 muffed by #11 B.Sparks at TXST37 recovered by USA #42 A.Zaccaro at TXST39, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3314% → 15%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
86.3%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 7 yards gain to the TXST32, out of bounds at TXST32Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
85.5%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #11 A.Eager thrown to TXST20 broken up by #29 T.PayneSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-5
86.1%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport sacked for loss of 5 yards to the TXST37 (#12 K.Snyder)Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
85.4%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep middle to #1 D.Voisin thrown to TXST02 broken up by #23 A.Atwood PENALTY USA Holding declined, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:2015% → 13%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA26 (#7 R.Nolan; #12 K.Snyder)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
85.7%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 3 yards gain to the USA29 (#29 T.Payne)Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
85.7%
(13:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #9 J.Scott caught at USA34, for 5 yards to the USA34 (#9 J.Rios) PENALTY USA Holding (#68 R.Osei-Wusu) 10 yards from USA29 to USA19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
86.4%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #3 K.Bullock caught at USA16, for 0 yards to the USA19 (#9 J.Rios)Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+10
86.9%
(12:40) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 40 yards to the TXST41 #11 B.Sparks return 10 yards to the USA49 (#24 D.Darby) PENALTY TXST Holding 10 yards from TXST41 to TXST31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:2387% → 96%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.3%
(12:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. thrown to USA40Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
87.4%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #9 G.Burrell caught at TXST41, for 14 yards to the TXST45 (#1 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
88.1%
(11:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #9 G.Burrell caught at TXST39, for 2 yards to the TXST47 (#32 B.Myrick) PENALTY TXST Holding (#2 K.Evans) 10 yards from TXST47 to TXST37Similar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 18
OWN 37
+6
87.7%
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at TXST44, for 6 yards to the TXST43, out of bounds at TXST43Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+20
88.1%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush right for 20 yards gain to the USA37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
88.4%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA34 (#27 I.Mafe)Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
95.7%
(10:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush right for 1 yard gain to the USA33 (#27 I.Mafe; #18 R.Moss Jr.) PENALTY TXST Holding (#68 S.Burns) TXST Holding declined 10 yards from USA33 to USA43Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+5
95.5%
(10:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 L.Pare caught at USA46, for 5 yards to the USA38 (#1 W.Miller)Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+14
95.4%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at USA35, for 14 yards to the USA24 (#32 B.Myrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
96.1%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #11 B.Sparks caught at USA25, for 7 yards to the USA17 (#1 W.Miller)Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+9
95.9%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USA08 (#90 E.Smiley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.3%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:03 #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:564% → 3%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.9%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USA31 (#1 B.Crosby)Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
95.7%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #82 T.Thomas caught at USA34, for 6 yards to the USA37 (#9 J.Rios), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
95.9%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA39 (#16 T.Cooks II; #99 A.Langi Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
96.0%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Eager rush right for 3 yards gain to the USA42, out of bounds at USA42Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+12
96.2%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #11 A.Eager caught at USA47, for 12 yards to the TXST46 (#16 T.Cooks II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-25
96.7%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass intercepted by #9 J.Rios at TXST25 #9 J.Rios return 25 yards to the USA50 (#70 A.Hale), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
50
+50
99.6%
Beau Sparks 50 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
(04:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA21, for 3 yards to the USA28 (#18 C.Royal Jr.)Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #19 R.Gibbs thrown to USA27Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA42Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.7%
(04:01) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 42 yards to the TXST30 fair catch by #11 B.Sparks at TXST30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:07100% → 100%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.6%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST34 (#17 D.Young; #43 J.Porco)Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
99.6%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TXST41 (#8 M.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.7%
(03:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TXST49 (#43 J.Porco; #10 D.Hughes)Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+6
99.7%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USA45 (#10 D.Hughes; #8 M.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.7%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #11 B.Sparks caught at USA46, for 0 yards to the USA45 (#7 T.Goodwill)Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.7%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #7 L.Pare caught at TXST49, for 1 yard to the USA44 (#32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+16
99.7%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 16 yards gain to the USA28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.7%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USA22 (#32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+4
99.8%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.8%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA14 (#10 D.Hughes)Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
99.8%
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush right for 3 yards gain to the USA11, out of bounds at USA11Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+5
99.8%
(13:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA06 (#7 T.Goodwill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Brad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:180% → 0%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USA37 (#34 J.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 5 yards gain to the USA42 (#13 M.Nwokocha)Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
99.9%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA45 broken up by #27 C.PowellSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+6
99.9%
(11:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USA48 (#13 M.Nwokocha; #46 A.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.9%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TXST45 (#45 C.Nilles)Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short right to #3 K.Bullock caught at TXST46, for 1 yard to the TXST44 (#20 M.Willis)Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+9
99.9%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TXST35 (#45 C.Nilles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete deep right to #11 A.Eager caught at TXST00, for 35 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:01 PENALTY USA Illegal Formation 5 yards from TXST35 to TXST40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+5
99.9%
(09:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 5 yards gain to the TXST35 (#46 A.Jones)Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
99.9%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 11 yards gain to the TXST24 (#32 J.Bell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
99.9%
(07:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short right to #19 R.Gibbs thrown to TXST22 PENALTY TXST Roughing The Passer (#46 A.Jones) 12 yards from TXST24 to TXST12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.9%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short left to #11 A.Eager caught at TXST17, for 4 yards to the TXST08 (#10 J.Mynatt) PENALTY USA Holding (#1 D.Voisin) 10 yards from TXST08 to TXST18Similar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
99.9%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short left to #11 A.Eager caught at TXST08, for 4 yards to the TXST08 PENALTY USA Holding (#1 D.Voisin) 10 yards from TXST08 to TXST18Similar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 16
OPP 18
+13
99.9%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 13 yards gain to the TXST05 (#36 G.Gipson Jr.)Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short right to #3 K.Bullock caught at TXST03, for 4 yards to the TXST01, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short right to #3 K.Bullock caught at TXST03, for 5 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:34, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
(06:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Scott thrown to TXST00 broken up by #17 C.JonesSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:20 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short middle to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA44, for 1 yard to the USA44 (#28 T.Williams)Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(05:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short right to #2 M.McCrumby thrown to USA44 broken up by #30 C.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass incomplete short left to #11 A.Eager thrown to TXST50 PENALTY TXST Pass Interference (#25 D.Taylor Jr.) 6 yards from USA44 to USA50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
50
+11
99.9%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short right to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA45, for 11 yards to the TXST39 (#17 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.9%
(04:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Hollins pass complete short right to #1 D.Voisin caught at TXST34, for 5 yards to the TXST34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Trae'von Dunbar 34 Yd Run (Davis Little PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.3%
Jeremy Scott 35 Yd pass from Jared Hollins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.7%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST35 (#45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
99.7%
(03:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush right for 7 yards gain to the TXST42 (#10 D.Hughes)Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+7
99.8%
(02:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TXST49 (#17 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
99.8%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush left for 15 yards gain to the USA36 (#5 C.Wallace, Jr.; #8 M.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.8%
(01:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush right for 1 yard gain to the USA35 (#8 M.Harris)Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-1
99.8%
(00:33) Kneel down by #8 B.Jackson at USA36 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:48
Beau Sparks 50 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)
+2.9
FG · Q2 11:08
Timeout Texas State, clock 11:08
+2
TD · Q4 3:55
Jeremy Scott 35 Yd pass from Jared Hollins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com