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USA

South Alabama 26 at UL Monroe 14

ULM
2025 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2025 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-14.6ULM 11.8%(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullockrush left for 8 yards gain to theULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:36 #4B.Davenport pass attempt failedAWAY 26 - HOME 14 · Q4 14:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:36 · (14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 8 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:36 #4 B.Davenport pass attempt failed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Home team on offense−26.8Pregame prior−1.9Score differential−10.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7Garbage-time factor−9.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 13:55: Timeout UL Monroe, clock 13:55 — ULM win probability +7.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:03: (10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 1 yard gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:03 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner) — USA win probability +15.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:05: (05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 3 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:05 #35 D.Little kick attempt failed (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner) — USA win probability +14.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:36: (14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 8 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:36 #4 B.Davenport pass attempt failed — USA win probability +14.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:11: (13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 4 yards gain to the USA24 (#28 D.Anderson) — USA win probability +8.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:16USA 4th & 4 at USA 8, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:58USA 4th & 9 at ULM 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:16USA 4th & 28 at USA 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:17ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:16USA 4th & 1 at ULM 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−2.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−9.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:34ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:53USA 4th & 13 at USA 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:53ULM 4th & 7 at USA 29, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:52USA 4th & 11 at USA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:00ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:35ULM 4th & 21 at ULM 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−6.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:41USA 4th & 18 at ULM 37, up 12
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:14ULM 4th & 9 at ULM 41, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:08ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:42ULM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:03USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:05USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:36USA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3158% → 57%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
42.1%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA04 (#45 C.Mosley)Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
42.1%
(14:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA07 (#92 J.Smith)Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+1
42.4%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA08 (#90 J.Hamlin)Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+18
42.7%
(13:31) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 39 yards to the USA47 #2 J.Godfrey return 18 yards to the USA29 (#28 D.McKenzie)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
43.5%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 29 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:08, 1ST DOWN #98 J.Chambliss kick attempt good (H: #33 A.Wells, LS: #48 N.Wilson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:5857% → 55%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.3%
(13:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA36, for 15 yards to the USA40, out of bounds at USA40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
43.3%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 4 yards gain to the USA44 (#23 J.Foster)Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
43.5%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA40Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+9
43.7%
(12:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA49, for 9 yards to the ULM47 (#16 S.Langston; #12 J.Tiller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
43.9%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush left for 1 yard loss to the ULM48 (#45 C.Mosley)Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+2
44.3%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULM46 (#30 M.Ross)Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 9
OPP 46
0
44.8%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Voisin thrown to ULM35Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
45.2%
(10:08) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 35 yards to the ULM11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:2446% → 47%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
45.5%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 5 yards gain to the ULM16 (#10 D.Hughes; #7 T.Goodwill)Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+5
46.1%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ULM21 (#20 T.Johnson; #32 B.Myrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
46.6%
(08:31) Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short right to #3 B.McReynolds caught at ULM14, for 1 yard loss to the ULM20 (#45 E.Smith IV; #9 E.Waller)Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+5
47.0%
(07:47) Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short left to #2 J.Godfrey caught at ULM14, for 5 yards to the ULM25 (#7 T.Goodwill)Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-1
47.1%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short right to #8 J.Bibbs caught at ULM24, for 1 yard loss to the ULM24 (#6 N.Chandler)Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
47.1%
(06:35) #47 M.Ryan punt 46 yards to the USA30 fair catch by #1 D.Voisin at USA30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3953% → 49%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
47.2%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USA39 (#4 D.Perkins-McAllister)Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
46.9%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Eager thrown to USA43Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+42
51.3%
Noah Flemmings 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Chambliss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 3:2148% → 44%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.1%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA27 (#10 K.Holmes; #19 J.Calender)Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
52.8%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USA37 (#30 M.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.0%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA40 (#19 J.Calender)Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
53.1%
(04:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #11 A.Eager caught at USA35, for 10 yards to the USA50 (#13 D.Godsey Jr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
50
+5
52.6%
(04:07) PENALTY USA Delay Of Game (#4 B.Davenport) 5 yards from USA50 to USA45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+3
53.6%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush left for 3 yards gain to the USA48 (#29 A.Adams)Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-1
54.6%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #3 K.Bullock caught at USA42, for 1 yard loss to the USA47 (#30 M.Ross), out of bounds PENALTY USA Personal Foul (#82 T.Thomas) 15 yards from USA47 to USA32Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 28
OWN 32
0
55.7%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #3 K.Bullock caught at USA27, for 0 yards to the USA32 (#28 D.Anderson)Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 28
OWN 32
0
55.8%
(02:25) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 44 yards to the ULM24, out of bounds at ULM24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5857% → 58%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
56.7%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta rush right for 0 yards to the ULM24, out of bounds at ULM24 PENALTY ULM Holding (#67 A.Vinson) 10 yards from ULM24 to ULM14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+4
57.4%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short right to #8 J.Bibbs caught at ULM10, for 4 yards to the ULM18 (#32 B.Myrick; #6 N.Chandler)Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+8
57.8%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ULM26 (#2 J.Henderson; #7 T.Goodwill)Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
57.9%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete short right to #7 N.Trujillo thrown to ULM35 broken up by #2 J.HendersonSimilar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
57.6%
(00:25) #47 M.Ryan punt 38 yards to the USA36, out of bounds at USA36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:1443% → 49%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
56.9%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 1 yard gain to the USA37 (#55 J.Simmons)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
57.3%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #1 D.Voisin caught at USA36, for 0 yards to the USA37 (#28 D.Anderson) PENALTY ULM Horse Collar Tackle (#28 D.Anderson) 16 yards from USA37 to ULM47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
56.4%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ULM39 (#18 Z.Jackson)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+10
55.8%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Scott thrown to ULM05 PENALTY ULM Holding (#4 D.Perkins-McAllister) 10 yards from ULM39 to ULM29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
56.0%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 15 yards gain to the ULM14 (#3 N.Flemmings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
56.2%
(13:55) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #81 B.Long caught at ULM13, for 5 yards to the ULM09 (#3 N.Flemmings), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
56.5%
(13:28) Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULM07 (#3 N.Flemmings)Similar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
57.5%
(12:52) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULM05 (#18 Z.Jackson; #29 A.Adams)Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+4
58.4%
(12:21) Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ULM01 (#14 T.Woody), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.1%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 0 yards to the ULM01 (#3 N.Flemmings)Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.8%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:03 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1957% → 56%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
57.1%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ULM24, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
57.3%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush right for 0 yards to the ULM24 (#91 N.Jennings; #44 W.Felton IV)Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
56.8%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete deep left to #8 J.Bibbs thrown to USA37 broken up by #6 N.ChandlerSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+5
56.3%
(09:43) #47 M.Ryan punt 42 yards to the USA34 #14 C.Blaylock return 5 yards to the USA39 (#48 N.Wilson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:3843% → 39%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
56.9%
(09:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA35Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
57.2%
PENALTY USA False Start (#70 A.Hale) 5 yards from USA39 to USA34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+7
58.3%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush right for 14 yards gain (7) to the USA48 (#23 J.Foster) PENALTY USA Holding (#19 R.Gibbs) 10 yards from USA41 to USA31Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 18
OWN 31
+4
58.6%
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA35 (#10 K.Holmes)Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+1
59.9%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #11 A.Eager caught at USA34, for 1 yard to the USA36 (#90 J.Hamlin)Similar
Q2 7:53
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
61.0%
(07:59) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 34 yards to the ULM30, out of bounds at ULM30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:5561% → 67%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
61.4%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ULM33 (#52 J.Armstead; #99 S.Johnson)Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
62.0%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush left for 0 yards to the ULM33 (#20 T.Johnson; #28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+11
61.8%
(06:30) Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short middle to #1 J.Nixon caught at ULM40, for 11 yards to the ULM44 (#1 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
64.7%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 D.Lewis rush left for 10 yards gain to the USA46 (#10 D.Hughes; #32 B.Myrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
65.7%
(05:12) Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short left to #85 R.Green caught at USA43, for 14 yards to the USA32 (#0 C.Wallace, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
65.7%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 0 yards to the USA32 (#32 B.Myrick) PENALTY ULM Holding (#80 N.Sullivan) 10 yards from USA32 to USA42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+5
65.4%
(04:11) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA37 (#25 T.Henry)Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+3
67.6%
(03:29) Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush left for 3 yards gain to the USA34 (#2 J.Henderson; #45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+5
67.3%
(02:43) Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short left to #4 J.Coulter caught at USA36, for 5 yards to the USA29 (#10 D.Hughes), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+1
67.0%
(02:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA28 (#20 T.Johnson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5733% → 28%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
67.5%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Voisin thrown to USA41 broken up by #23 J.FosterSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
67.8%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA29 (#45 C.Mosley)Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-2
70.9%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #9 J.Scott caught at USA27, for 2 yards loss to the USA27 (#12 J.Tiller)Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
71.8%
(00:58) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 46 yards to the ULM27 fair catch by #2 J.Godfrey at ULM27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2970% → 67%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
69.8%
(00:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 3 yards gain to the ULM30 (#20 T.Johnson; #91 N.Jennings)Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+10
69.7%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete deep middle to #7 N.Trujillo thrown to USA30 broken up by #7 T.Goodwill PENALTY ULM Holding (#80 N.Sullivan) 10 yards from ULM30 to ULM20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 17
OWN 20
+5
67.3%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ULM25 (#20 T.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5563% → 63%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 Z.Palmer-Smith rush right for 1 yard loss to the ULM24 (#10 D.Hughes; #32 B.Myrick)Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
63.4%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 H.Herring rush middle for 7 yards gain to the ULM31 (#28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.3%
(13:46) Shotgun #10 A.Armenta rush right for 0 yards to the ULM31 (#10 D.Hughes), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
62.6%
(13:07) #47 M.Ryan punt 38 yards to the USA31 fair catch by #1 D.Voisin at USA31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:5137% → 57%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-4
62.7%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 4 yards loss to the USA27 (#3 N.Flemmings)Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 14
OWN 27
+1
64.3%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #6 M.Woods caught at USA24, for 1 yard to the USA28 (#16 S.Langston; #1 K.Wells)Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+48
65.7%
(11:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep middle to #11 A.Eager caught at ULM38, for 48 yards to the ULM24 (#12 J.Tiller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
59.0%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 23 yards gain to the ULM01 (#12 J.Tiller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.2%
(10:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 0 yards to the ULM01 (#90 J.Hamlin; #3 N.Flemmings)Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.3%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 1 yard gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:03 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -20 yds · 1:2053% → 51%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.7%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete deep middle to #7 N.Trujillo thrown to USA25, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Pass Interference (#6 N.Chandler) 15 yards from ULM25 to ULM40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
55.2%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ULM30 (#9 E.Waller)Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 20
OWN 30
0
52.8%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete deep middle to #8 J.Bibbs thrown to USA25Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 20
OWN 30
-10
51.2%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 6 yards gain (-10) to the ULM36 (#28 D.McKenzie) PENALTY ULM UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#2 J.Godfrey) 15 yards from ULM30 to ULM15Similar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 35
OWN 15
0
51.3%
(08:47) #47 M.Ryan punt 51 yards to the USA34 fair catch by #1 D.Voisin at USA34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3152% → 70%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
48.5%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 0 yards to the USA34 (#30 M.Ross)Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+14
49.2%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #9 J.Scott caught at USA45, for 14 yards to the USA48 (#4 D.Perkins-McAllister), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
45.9%
(07:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #11 A.Eager thrown to ULM15 broken up by #18 Z.Jackson PENALTY ULM Personal Foul (#30 M.Ross) 15 yards from USA48 to ULM37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
45.5%
(07:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep left to #9 J.Scott thrown to ULM00 broken up by #23 J.FosterSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
45.5%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULM36 (#90 J.Hamlin)Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+10
46.1%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #1 D.Voisin caught at ULM26, for 10 yards to the ULM26, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
44.1%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport sacked for loss of 4 yards to the ULM30 (#30 M.Ross)Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+14
46.1%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #21 K.Phillips caught at ULM35, for 14 yards to the ULM16 (#18 Z.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
44.2%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #11 A.Eager caught at ULM19, for 13 yards to the ULM03 (#23 J.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.7%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 3 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:05 #35 D.Little kick attempt failed (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:2439% → 36%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
38.6%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 17 yards gain to the ULM42 (#14 C.Blaylock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-12
41.3%
(04:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 3 yards gain (-12) to the ULM45 (#18 R.Moss Jr.; #24 D.Darby) PENALTY ULM Personal Foul (#8 J.Bibbs) 15 yards from ULM42 to ULM27Similar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 25
OWN 27
-3
38.4%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta sacked for loss of 3 yards to the ULM24 (#28 D.McKenzie)Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 28
OWN 24
+7
36.8%
(03:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush right for 7 yards gain to the ULM31 (#0 C.Wallace, Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 21
OWN 31
0
36.7%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete deep right to #8 J.Bibbs thrown to USA45Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 21
OWN 31
0
36.1%
(02:42) #47 M.Ryan punt 14 yards to the ULM45, out of bounds at ULM45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5071% → 88%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
28.9%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULM43 (#92 J.Smith)Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+13
27.9%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 13 yards gain to the ULM30 (#20 J.Ester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
27.1%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ULM27 (#12 J.Tiller; #3 N.Flemmings)Similar
Q3 0:53
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
26.8%
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #13 J.Jones-Thomas caught at ULM31, for 4 yards to the ULM23 (#12 J.Tiller)Similar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
27.6%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ULM19 (#12 J.Tiller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
26.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #11 A.Eager caught at ULM21, for 11 yards to the ULM08 (#23 J.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
11.8%
(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 8 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:36 #4 B.Davenport pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20INT
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:0319% → 21%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
19.0%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short middle to #8 J.Bibbs caught at ULM21, for 2 yards loss to the ULM23 (#28 D.McKenzie), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+27
18.6%
(14:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short right to #8 J.Bibbs caught at ULM35, for 27 yards to the ULM50 (#1 W.Miller), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
50
0
20.8%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass intercepted by #7 T.Goodwill at USA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
15 plays · 43 yds · 7:3087% → 97%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
12.8%
(13:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 4 yards gain to the USA24 (#28 D.Anderson)Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
9.0%
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #6 M.Woods caught at USA20, for 10 yards to the USA34 (#23 J.Foster; #20 J.Ester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
6.3%
(12:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA37 (#12 J.Tiller), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
5.4%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 5 yards gain to the USA42 (#23 J.Foster)Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+3
4.9%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA45 (#18 Z.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
4.3%
(10:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA50 (#5 B.Pullen; #12 J.Tiller)Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 5
50
+4
3.9%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ULM46 (#92 J.Smith)Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
3.6%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULM44 (#30 M.Ross), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
3.6%
(08:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 15 yards gain to the ULM29 (#23 J.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
3.5%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ULM26 (#15 K.Robinson)Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-2
2.9%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush right for 2 yards loss to the ULM28 (#10 K.Holmes; #29 A.Adams)Similar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-4
2.8%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 4 yards loss to the ULM32 fumbled by #4 B.Davenport at ULM32 recovered by USA #3 K.Bullock at ULM32, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 13
OPP 32
+5
3.1%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game (#4 B.Davenport) 5 yards from ULM32 to ULM37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 18
OPP 37
0
2.7%
(05:47) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 37 yards to the ULM00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:218% → 6%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
7.7%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete deep left to #4 J.Coulter thrown to USA31 broken up by #14 C.BlaylockSimilar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
6.7%
(05:33) Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass complete short middle to #1 J.Nixon caught at ULM30, for 20 yards to the ULM40 (#28 D.McKenzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
7.5%
(05:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete short left to #4 J.Coulter thrown to ULM48Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
6.8%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 B.McReynolds rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULM41 (#20 T.Johnson)Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
6.3%
(04:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete short left to #6 Z.Palmer-Smith thrown to ULM42 broken up by #99 S.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
6.1%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 A.Armenta pass incomplete short left to #4 J.Coulter thrown to ULM50 broken up by #24 D.Darby, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:2996% → 98%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
3.8%
(04:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ULM35 (#16 S.Langston)Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
2.7%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ULM30 (#29 A.Adams; #19 J.Calender), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.3%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Phillips rush middle for 0 yards to the ULM30 (#90 J.Hamlin; #3 N.Flemmings)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
1.9%
(02:00) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush right for 7 yards gain to the ULM23 (#12 J.Tiller; #15 K.Robinson)Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+6
1.7%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ULM17 (#3 N.Flemmings; #15 K.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
1.6%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULM15 (#15 K.Robinson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:03
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 1 yard gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:03 #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)
-15.9
TD · Q4 14:36
(14:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Bullock rush left for 8 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:36 #4 B.Davenport pass attempt failed
-14.6
TD · Q3 5:05
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 3 yards gain to the ULM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:05 #35 D.Little kick attempt failed (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com