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JMU

James Madison 52 at Texas State 20

TXST
2025 · Week 10 · Oct 28, 2025 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:05 · (13:09) #11 P.Rea punt 33 yards to the TXST10 fair catch by #11 B.Sparks at TXST10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−21.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:45: (09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:45 PENALTY TXST UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#15 D.Russell), 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard) — JMU win probability +6.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:45: (04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #89 J.Phifer caught at TXST00, for 14 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:45, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard) — JMU win probability +11.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: End of 2nd quarter. — TXST win probability +5.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:13: (14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST35, for 76 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:13, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard) — JMU win probability +7.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:50: (09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #18 L.Kyle caught at TXST02, for 5 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard) — JMU win probability +7.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:05JMU 4th & 10 at TXST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:05TXST 4th & 6 at JMU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:52TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:25TXST 4th & 1 at JMU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:00TXST 4th & 6 at JMU 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:11TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 14, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:27JMU 4th & 8 at TXST 12, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:46TXST 4th & 9 at JMU 47, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:33JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 24, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:49TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 45, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0328% → 29%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.1%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to #16 B.Smith thrown to TXST28 broken up by #0 I.BushSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.1%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #16 B.Smith caught at TXST28, for 5 yards to the TXST30 (#5 T.Hendrick), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
28.4%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush right for 6 yards gain to the TXST36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
28.5%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST40 (#7 J.Thomas)Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-4
28.7%
(14:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass intercepted by #32 D.Barksdale at TXST47 #32 D.Barksdale return 4 yards to the TXST43 (#11 B.Sparks)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4772% → 71%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
28.5%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short right to #13 L.Ellis thrown to TXST33 QB hurried by #2 K.AlexanderSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
28.5%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short left to #13 L.Ellis thrown to TXST35 broken up by #0 T.JacksonSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
28.6%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 0 yards to the TXST43 (#1 B.Crosby), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
29.0%
(13:09) #11 P.Rea punt 33 yards to the TXST10 fair catch by #11 B.Sparks at TXST10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2829% → 30%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
29.1%
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST11 (#9 X.Holmes)Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
29.2%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 0 yards to the TXST11 (#9 X.Holmes)Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+2
29.3%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST13 (#9 X.Holmes; #97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
29.5%
(11:37) #38 D.Nunez punt 37 yards to the TXST50 fair catch by #3 W.Knight at JMU50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:3571% → 72%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
50
+2
29.4%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST48 (#96 B.Carter)Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
29.6%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 0 yards to the TXST48 (#29 T.Payne)Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+19
30.0%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST38, for 19 yards to the TXST29 (#7 R.Nolan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
30.0%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #10 B.Wisloski caught at TXST30, for 26 yards to the TXST03 (#10 J.Mynatt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
30.1%
(08:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST01 (#29 T.Payne)Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.4%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush for 0 yards to the TXST01 (#29 T.Payne) PENALTY JMU False Start (#52 C.Sweazie) 5 yards from TXST01 to TXST06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
28.3%
(07:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST00, for 6 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:49 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:3929% → 30%
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.1%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TXST28 (#13 T.Brown)Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
29.2%
(07:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #86 T.Lyons caught at TXST33, for 8 yards to the TXST36 (#2 E.Culp), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
29.4%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST37 (#90 T.Lockett Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
29.4%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TXST43 (#13 T.Brown) PENALTY JMU Face Mask (#93 M.McMullin) 15 yards from TXST43 to JMU42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
30.1%
(06:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JMU41 (#3 G.Weathersby)Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
30.2%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. thrown to JMU17Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+3
29.9%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #11 B.Sparks caught at JMU41, for 3 yards to the JMU38 (#5 T.Hendrick; #13 T.Brown)Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+3
29.7%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #3 M.Anderson caught at JMU38, for 3 yards to the JMU35 (#13 T.Brown), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:3771% → 75%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+57
28.9%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short left to #3 W.Knight caught at JMU37, for 57 yards to the TXST08 (#23 A.Atwood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
25.2%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush left for 8 yards gain to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:16 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:1027% → 26%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
26.5%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush left for 5 yards gain to the TXST27 (#2 E.Culp; #8 A.Thomas)Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+7
25.9%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TXST34 (#5 T.Hendrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
25.7%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 0 yards to the TXST34 (#0 I.Bush)Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
25.6%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TXST44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
26.4%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST45 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
26.3%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TXST50 (#3 G.Weathersby; #93 M.McMullin)Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 4
50
+3
26.3%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU47 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+5
26.2%
(01:18) PENALTY TXST False Start (#66 J.DeLeon) 5 yards from JMU47 to TXST48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
26.0%
(00:58) #38 D.Nunez punt 35 yards to the JMU17 fair catch by #3 W.Knight at JMU17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
24.8%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass intercepted by #9 J.Rios at JMU26 #9 J.Rios return 2 yards to the JMU24, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:0627% → 32%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
26.6%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. thrown to JMU00Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
26.6%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at JMU21, for 3 yards to the JMU21 (#30 J.Eaglin)Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+7
26.4%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JMU14, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
31.9%
(14:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #3 M.Anderson caught at JMU00, for 14 yards to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:34, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4371% → 79%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
29.2%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush left for 15 yards gain to the JMU40 (#4 K.Terrell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
28.4%
(13:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 2 yards gain to the JMU42 (#26 C.Davis)Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-4
28.4%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III sacked for loss of 4 yards to the JMU38 (#12 K.Snyder)Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+12
29.1%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #3 W.Knight caught at JMU42, for 12 yards to the JMU50 (#29 T.Payne), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
50
+1
27.6%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST49 (#96 B.Carter)Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
27.6%
(11:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TXST40 (#46 A.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
27.5%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #13 L.Ellis caught at TXST26, for 26 yards to the TXST14 (#4 K.Terrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
27.2%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #13 L.Ellis caught at TXST07, for 11 yards to the TXST03 (#10 J.Mynatt; #15 D.Russell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.8%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:45 PENALTY TXST UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#15 D.Russell), 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 3:3822% → 25%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.3%
(09:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush left for 5 yards loss to the TXST20 (#7 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+48
22.0%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #3 M.Anderson caught at TXST35, for 48 yards to the JMU32 (#30 J.Eaglin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
23.7%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. thrown to JMU00Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
23.6%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #9 G.Burrell caught at JMU31, for 1 yard to the JMU31 (#2 E.Culp)Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+8
23.0%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the JMU23 (#3 G.Weathersby; #13 T.Brown)Similar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
22.8%
(07:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JMU21 (#15 S.West; #3 G.Weathersby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
23.3%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #11 B.Sparks thrown to JMU08Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
23.3%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. caught at JMU24, for 3 yards to the JMU18 (#7 J.Thomas)Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+1
22.8%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JMU17 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
25.2%
(06:03) #95 T.Robles field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner), clock 06:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1075% → 86%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.0%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush left for 10 yards gain to the JMU35 (#7 R.Nolan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+51
24.6%
(05:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 51 yards gain to the TXST14, out of bounds at TXST14, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
13.7%
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #89 J.Phifer caught at TXST00, for 14 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:45, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:5518% → 25%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.5%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST29 (#90 T.Lockett Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
17.4%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #3 M.Anderson caught at TXST31, for 9 yards to the TXST38 (#5 T.Hendrick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
18.1%
(03:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short right thrown to TXST50Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
17.6%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #11 B.Sparks caught at JMU48, for 16 yards to the JMU46 (#32 D.Barksdale), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
18.0%
(03:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson sacked for loss of 2 yards to the JMU48 (#33 A.Taddeo)Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+7
17.0%
(02:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #7 L.Pare caught at JMU47, for 7 yards to the JMU41 (#5 T.Hendrick), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+29
16.8%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete deep left to #2 K.Evans caught at JMU21, for 29 yards to the JMU12 (#7 J.Thomas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
17.9%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #7 L.Pare caught at JMU14, for 1 yard to the JMU11 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
17.9%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass intercepted by #32 D.Barksdale at JMU02 #32 D.Barksdale return 23 yards to the JMU25, out of bounds at JMU25 PENALTY JMU Illegal Substitution JMU Sideline Inteference 3 yards from JMU06 to JMU03Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+3
26.4%
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass intercepted by #32 D.Barksdale at JMU02 #32 D.Barksdale return 23 yards to the JMU25, out of bounds at JMU25 PENALTY JMU Illegal Substitution (#33 A.Taddeo) JMU Sideline Inteference 8 yards from JMU11 to JMU03. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
26.4%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short right to #11 B.Sparks thrown to JMU00Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
25.1%
(01:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:37, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Robles kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5376% → 76%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Sanchez thrown to JMU30 broken up by #0 T.JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.0%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JMU30 (#97 D.Woods)Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
22.9%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short middle to #18 L.Kyle thrown to JMU47Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
23.6%
(00:47) #11 P.Rea punt 43 yards to the TXST27 fair catch by #11 B.Sparks at TXST27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 0:3123% → 29%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
23.2%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush left for 4 yards gain to the TXST31, out of bounds at TXST31 PENALTY TXST Holding offsetting JMU Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
23.2%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Dawn, Jr. thrown to JMU45Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+16
22.7%
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson rush middle for 16 yards gain to the TXST43 (#13 T.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
23.8%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+17
23.4%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #11 B.Sparks caught at JMU41, for 17 yards to the JMU40 (#32 D.Barksdale), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
24.7%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short right to #3 M.Anderson caught at JMU25, for 22 yards to the JMU18 (#7 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
25.9%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+36
28.8%
(00:04) #95 T.Robles field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #38 D.Nunez, LS: #48 A.Turner), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4075% → 83%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.9%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 1 yard loss to the JMU24 (#16 T.Cooks Jr.)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
17.5%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST35, for 76 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:13, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:0520% → 20%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+31
19.6%
(14:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete deep middle to #11 B.Sparks caught at JMU35, for 31 yards to the JMU32 (#7 J.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
21.3%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson sacked for loss of 8 yards to the JMU40 (#0 I.Bush)Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 18
OPP 40
-42
19.5%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass intercepted by #30 J.Eaglin at JMU33 #30 J.Eaglin return 42 yards to the TXST25 (#8 B.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5586% → 94%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
14.4%
(12:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 8 yards gain to the TXST17 (#0 T.Jackson)Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
14.1%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TXST16 (#97 D.Woods)Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
14.1%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 0 yards to the TXST16 (#7 R.Nolan)Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+5
15.2%
PENALTY TXST Offside (#2 K.Alexander) 5 yards from TXST16 to TXST11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
13.4%
(11:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST07 (#29 T.Payne; #46 A.Jones)Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
13.2%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush left for 2 yards gain to the TXST05 (#29 T.Payne)Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
5.6%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #18 L.Kyle caught at TXST02, for 5 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:248% → 8%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
8.1%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TXST31 (#13 T.Brown; #9 X.Holmes)Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
8.4%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #3 M.Anderson thrown to TXST33 broken up by #30 J.EaglinSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
8.2%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass intercepted by #9 X.Holmes at TXST35 #9 X.Holmes return 0 yards to the TXST35 (#3 M.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1995% → 98%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
5.3%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short right thrown to TXST35 QB hurried by #29 T.PayneSimilar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+23
5.2%
(09:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 23 yards gain to the TXST12 (#4 K.Terrell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
4.9%
(08:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #0 J.Sanchez caught at TXST15, for 6 yards to the TXST06 (#88 J.Sanders)Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
4.7%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 0 yards to the TXST06 (#12 K.Snyder; #88 J.Sanders)Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+4
4.1%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST02 (#29 T.Payne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.6%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:43 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
1.2%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TXST09 (#0 I.Bush)Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+5
1.0%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TXST14 (#8 A.Thomas)Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
1.0%
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to #11 B.Sparks thrown to TXST37Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
1.0%
(05:16) #38 D.Nunez punt 39 yards to the JMU47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 6:3698% → 99%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
1.9%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TXST44 (#7 R.Nolan)Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
1.6%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 0 yards to the TXST44 (#45 C.Nilles)Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+17
1.5%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush right for 17 yards gain to the TXST27 (#7 R.Nolan), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
1.5%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST23 (#45 C.Nilles)Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
1.4%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TXST18 (#1 B.Crosby)Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
0.7%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TXST14 (#26 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
0.8%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TXST07 (#46 A.Jones) PENALTY JMU Holding 10 yards from TXST14 to TXST24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+5
0.7%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Sanchez thrown to TXST10 PENALTY JMU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#60 Z.Greenberg) 5 yards from TXST24 to TXST29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 25
OPP 29
+3
0.7%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush right for 3 yards gain to the TXST26, out of bounds at TXST26Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 22
OPP 26
+8
0.6%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush right for 8 yards gain to the TXST18 (#46 A.Jones)Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+6
0.6%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #0 J.Sanchez caught at TXST12, for 6 yards to the TXST12 (#7 R.Nolan)Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+31
0.6%
(13:31) #5 M.Suarez field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard), clock 13:27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TXST33 (#5 T.Hendrick; #13 T.Brown)Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
0.3%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush right for 6 yards gain to the TXST39 (#93 M.McMullin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
0.4%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TXST42 (#93 M.McMullin; #5 T.Hendrick)Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
0.3%
(11:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass incomplete short left to #11 B.Sparks thrown to TXST45Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+10
0.3%
(11:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #18 T.Stamey caught at TXST50, for 10 yards to the JMU48 (#16 T.McGill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
0.3%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU45 (#90 T.Lockett Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
0.3%
(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Burrell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JMU44 (#21 C.Harris-Lopez; #5 T.Hendrick)Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-3
0.3%
(10:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson sacked for loss of 3 yards to the JMU47 (#33 A.Taddeo)Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
0.2%
(09:56) #38 D.Nunez punt 41 yards to the JMU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
0.4%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JMU10 (#16 T.Cooks Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+11
0.3%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 J.Malary rush left for 11 yards gain to the JMU21 (#16 T.Cooks Jr.; #7 R.Nolan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
0.3%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 J.Malary rush right for 6 yards loss to the JMU15 (#35 T.Collins)Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+9
0.3%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 9 yards gain to the JMU24 (#26 C.Davis)Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
0.2%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass incomplete short middle to #17 M.Scott thrown to JMU41 QB hurried by #34 J.Jackson Jr.Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
0.2%
(06:38) #11 P.Rea punt 44 yards to the TXST32 fair catch by #25 D.Taylor Jr. at TXST32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
0.2%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush left for 2 yards gain to the TXST34 (#54 B.Fique; #16 T.McGill)Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
0.1%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST36 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+8
0.1%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 H.Geriner rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TXST44 (#54 B.Fique), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
0.1%
(05:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Pare rush right for 1 yard loss to the TXST43 (#97 A.Gobaira)Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+2
0.1%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 H.Geriner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TXST45 (#33 A.Taddeo; #23 K.Willis)Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
0.1%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 H.Geriner pass incomplete short middle to #2 K.Evans thrown to JMU45 QB hurried by #46 I.EzeoguSimilar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
0.1%
(04:02) #38 D.Nunez punt 39 yards to the JMU16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.2%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 J.Malary rush left for 5 yards gain to the JMU21 (#16 T.Cooks Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+12
0.1%
(02:55) Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush left for 12 yards gain to the JMU33 (#26 C.Davis; #30 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
0.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+8
0.1%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 T.Dye rush middle for 8 yards gain to the JMU44 (#26 C.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
0.1%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 T.Dye rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JMU48 (#34 J.Jackson Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:45
(04:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #89 J.Phifer caught at TXST00, for 14 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:45, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
-11
TD · Q3 9:50
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short right to #18 L.Kyle caught at TXST02, for 5 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
-7.6
TD · Q3 14:13
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST35, for 76 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:13, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com