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UL

Louisiana 23 at Troy 35

TROY
2025 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2025 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:55 · (14:55) #28 E.Crenshaw punt 55 yards to the LA 10 #0 R.Williams return for loss of 1 yard to the LA 09 (#87 C.Walls; #82 J.Thomas)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Pregame prior+4.9Home team on offense+14.2Garbage-time factor+9.0Score differential+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:14: (14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:14 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims) — UL win probability +5.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:03: (08:07) #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:03 #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls) — TROY win probability +6.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:16: (07:19) #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:16 #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls) — TROY win probability +9.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:08: (07:10) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims), clock 07:08 — UL win probability +5.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:55: (03:01) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush left for 19 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:55, 1ST DOWN #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls) — TROY win probability +8.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 2:40TROY 4th & 4 at UL 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:46UL 4th & 8 at TROY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:54TROY 4th & 1 at UL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−1.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−6.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:51UL 4th & 13 at TROY 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−4.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:50TROY 4th & 23 at TROY 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:04UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:45UL 4th & 1 at UL 31, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:29UL 4th & 8 at TROY 13, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:55TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−3.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:08UL 4th & 9 at TROY 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−2.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−10.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:37UL 4th & 15 at UL 36, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:18UL 4th & 12 at UL 49, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:42TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:4970% → 72%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
69.8%
(14:54) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short left to #7 R.Thomas thrown to TROY38Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
69.7%
(14:50) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #18 D.Epps caught at TROY39, for 13 yards to the TROY46 (#7 C.Flowers; #2 J.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
69.7%
(14:17) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush right for 11 yards gain to the LA 43 (#2 J.Clark; #3 J.Dugger), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
69.8%
(13:41) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease sacked for loss of 9 yards to the TROY48 (#0 J.Lawson)Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+18
69.6%
(13:04) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 18 yards gain to the LA 34 (#21 M.Eleam; #2 J.Clark)Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
69.7%
(12:25) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LA 30 (#6 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
69.8%
(11:49) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LA 23 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.; #35 C.Jacob)Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
69.7%
(11:12) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 0 yards to the LA 23 (#6 T.Williams; #31 D.Fite)Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+13
69.6%
(10:32) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #14 E.Conner caught at LA 15, for 13 yards to the LA 10, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
69.7%
(09:52) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LA 08 (#6 T.Williams; #90 K.Miller)Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.5%
(09:11) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush left for 8 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:01, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2529% → 32%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
70.8%
(09:03) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 39 yards gain to the TROY36 (#3 D.Lafayette), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
68.1%
(08:35) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete deep middle to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at TROY07, for 36 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:27, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3MISSED FG
15 plays · 45 yds · 5:3569% → 68%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.7%
(08:20) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TROY29 (#6 T.Williams; #0 J.Lawson)Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
68.6%
(07:45) Shotgun #8 T.Taylor rush right for 5 yards gain to the TROY34 (#6 T.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
68.6%
(07:21) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TROY39 (#6 T.Williams; #41 C.Edwards), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
68.8%
(06:41) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TROY45 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.)Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
69.1%
(06:07) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short right thrown to TROY50 QB hurried by #11 B.Gordon, Jr.Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+9
68.8%
(06:02) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short middle to #7 R.Thomas caught at LA 48, for 9 yards to the LA 46 (#35 C.Jacob), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
69.1%
(05:24) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete deep middle to #7 R.Thomas thrown to LA 00Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
69.1%
(05:16) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 0 yards to the LA 46 (#0 J.Lawson; #3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+10
68.4%
(04:35) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #2 P.Higgins caught at LA 40, for 10 yards to the LA 36 (#9 C.Whitfield), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
69.1%
(04:11) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LA 32 (#4 T.Skipper)Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
69.3%
(03:34) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #8 T.Taylor caught at LA 36, for 2 yards to the LA 30 (#3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
68.9%
(02:49) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short left to #2 P.Higgins thrown to LA 25Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
68.2%
(02:44) #40 S.Renfroe field goal attempt from 48 yards NO GOOD (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls), clock 02:40, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4633% → 33%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
67.0%
(02:39) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 9 yards gain to the LA 39 (#5 K.Levine; #6 J.Powe)Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-1
66.2%
(02:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 2 yards to the LA 37 (#22 D.Smith, #11 E.Davis)Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+16
66.7%
(01:43) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 16 yards gain to the TROY47, out of bounds at TROY47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
65.7%
(01:10) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TROY39 (#0 J.Williams)Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-6
65.6%
(00:34) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 6 yards loss to the TROY45 (#19 D.Jackson Jr.; #0 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
65.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. thrown to TROY12Similar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
66.8%
(14:51) #92 N.Torney punt 41 yards to the TROY04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-17
67.8%
(14:45) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass intercepted by #7 C.Flowers at TROY18 #7 C.Flowers return 17 yards to the TROY01 (#66 E.Russ)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:2235% → 41%
Q2 14:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
64.8%
(14:36) PENALTY LA False Start (#79 M.Maillho) 5 yards from TROY01 to TROY06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
64.8%
(14:36) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TROY01 (#6 J.Powe)Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.4%
(14:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:14 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:1062% → 60%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.5%
(14:07) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TROY23 (#99 A.Wright)Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+15
61.2%
(13:37) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 15 yards gain to the TROY38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LA Personal Foul (#4 T.Skipper) 15 yards from TROY38 to LA 47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
62.8%
(13:17) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush right for 3 yards gain to the LA 44 (#0 J.Lawson)Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+9
62.6%
(12:43) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #2 P.Higgins caught at LA 45, for 9 yards to the LA 35 (#21 M.Eleam; #4 T.Skipper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
63.2%
(12:05) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short left thrown to LA 29 QB hurried by #45 C.Kibodi PENALTY TROY Holding (#67 M.Henry) 10 yards from LA 35 to LA 45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+5
61.4%
(12:00) Shotgun #4 J.Williams rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LA 40 (#21 M.Eleam; #41 C.Edwards)Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+5
61.0%
(11:19) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short middle to #8 T.Taylor caught at LA 35, for 5 yards to the LA 35 (#3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
61.1%
(10:36) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #8 T.Taylor caught at LA 31, for 9 yards to the LA 26 (#4 T.Skipper), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
60.4%
(10:01) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 0 yards to the LA 26 (#95 M.Baudoin IV; #7 C.Flowers), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-30
65.6%
Jaquez White 30 Yd Interception Return (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3936% → 36%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
64.5%
(09:30) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 39 (#98 J.Fils-Aime; #3 D.Lafayette)Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-34
64.3%
(08:57) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass intercepted by #5 K.Levine at TROY40 #5 K.Levine return 34 yards to the LA 26, out of bounds at LA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:3670% → 76%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
70.1%
(08:45) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 22 yards gain to the LA 04 (#4 T.Skipper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.4%
(08:07) #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:03 #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 6:0726% → 29%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.1%
(08:02) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush right for 4 yards gain to the LA 29 (#6 J.Powe)Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
73.8%
(07:30) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LA 35 (#0 J.Williams; #99 J.Peterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
73.9%
(06:58) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LA 39 (#99 J.Peterson; #3 D.Lafayette)Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
73.0%
(06:23) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush right for 1 yard gain to the LA 40 (#15 T.Robbins; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+16
73.9%
(05:40) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at LA 49, for 16 yards to the TROY44 (#5 K.Levine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
72.5%
(05:23) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TROY36 (#4 T.Thompson; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+2
72.4%
(04:51) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #86 T.Miller caught at TROY35, for 2 yards to the TROY34 (#6 J.Powe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
71.7%
(04:09) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 17 yards gain to the TROY17 (#3 D.Lafayette; #6 J.Powe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
71.5%
(03:22) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush right for 4 yards loss to the TROY21 (#19 D.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+1
72.4%
(02:40) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TROY20 (#8 J.White)Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
73.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete short middle to #24 S.Blanco thrown to TROY15 broken up by #99 J.PetersonSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
70.6%
(01:55) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims), clock 01:51Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:4670% → 69%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
70.4%
(01:46) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #2 P.Higgins caught at TROY22, for 3 yards to the TROY29 (#21 M.Eleam; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+13
70.4%
(01:22) Shotgun #4 J.Williams rush right for 13 yards gain to the TROY42 (#2 J.Clark), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
71.6%
(01:11) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete deep left to #7 R.Thomas thrown to LA 15 broken up by #11 B.Gordon, Jr.Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
70.9%
(01:05) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease sacked for loss of 3 yards to the TROY39 (#95 M.Baudoin IV)Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-5
69.5%
(00:59) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease sacked for loss of 10 yards to the TROY29 (#21 M.Eleam, #90 K.Miller)Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 23
OWN 29
0
69.1%
(00:55) #28 E.Crenshaw punt 46 yards to the LA 25 fair catch by #0 R.Williams at LA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3827% → 26%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.8%
(00:50) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 5 yards gain to the LA 30, out of bounds at LA 30Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
72.1%
(00:42) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 0 yards to the LA 30 (#0 J.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
72.8%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 0 yards to the LA 30 (#3 D.Lafayette), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
74.1%
(00:04) #92 N.Torney punt 41 yards to the TROY29 #2 P.Higgins return 0 yards to the TROY29 (#48 H.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0131% → 31%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
68.9%
(14:54) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LA 25 (#2 S.Cattledge; #3 D.Lafayette)Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
68.7%
(14:19) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 5 yards gain to the LA 30 (#8 J.White; #6 J.Powe)Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
68.8%
(13:33) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 31 (#15 T.Robbins; #7 J.Stringer)Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
69.4%
(12:51) #92 N.Torney punt 38 yards to the TROY31 fair catch by #2 P.Higgins at TROY31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:2570% → 85%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
69.5%
(12:45) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 0 yards to the TROY31 (#31 D.Fite; #3 J.Dugger)Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+28
68.9%
(12:20) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short middle to #14 E.Conner caught at TROY39, for 28 yards to the LA 41 (#6 T.Williams; #2 J.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
71.8%
(11:39) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush right for 4 yards gain to the LA 37 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.; #31 D.Fite)Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
74.3%
(11:02) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 0 yards to the LA 37 (#93 J.Crider; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+15
73.9%
(10:26) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short middle to #7 R.Thomas caught at LA 41, for 15 yards to the LA 22 (#4 T.Skipper), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
75.2%
(09:48) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short left to #7 R.Thomas thrown to LA 11 QB hurried by #2 J.ClarkSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
75.1%
(09:44) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 21 (#44 J.St. Andre; #68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+14
74.1%
(09:03) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #0 R.Mothershed caught at LA 10, for 14 yards to the LA 07 (#4 T.Skipper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
75.4%
(08:26) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 06 (#95 M.Baudoin IV)Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
75.5%
(07:49) #18 D.Epps rush right for 5 yards gain to the LA 01 (#6 T.Williams)Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.6%
(07:19) #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:16 #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 5:4118% → 18%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
(07:16) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 0 yards to the LA 25 (#11 E.Davis)Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.9%
(06:45) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at LA 33, for 8 yards to the LA 33, out of bounds at LA 33Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+36
82.6%
(06:08) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete deep right to #13 C.Robertson caught at TROY31, for 36 yards to the TROY31 (#14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
79.6%
(05:31) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush right for 4 yards gain to the TROY27 (#8 J.White)Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
80.0%
(04:55) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 2 yards gain to the TROY25 (#44 L.Hodge)Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+10
81.5%
(04:14) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #13 C.Robertson caught at TROY24, for 10 yards to the TROY15 fumbled by #13 C.Robertson at TROY15 forced by #3 D.Lafayette recovered by LA #50 C.Fordham at TROY15, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
83.8%
(03:30) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush left for 1 yard loss to the TROY16 (#8 J.White)Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+3
84.4%
(02:54) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 3 yards gain to the TROY13 (#1 L.Medina; #99 J.Peterson)Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
85.1%
(02:15) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the TROY13 (#1 L.Medina; #11 E.Davis)Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
82.5%
(01:33) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims), clock 01:29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 1:2187% → 86%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
86.8%
(01:24) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #7 R.Thomas caught at TROY37, for 12 yards to the TROY38 (#44 J.St. Andre; #7 C.Flowers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
87.9%
(00:50) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 0 yards to the TROY38 (#90 K.Miller; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q3 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.8%
(00:12) Shotgun #4 J.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TROY40 (#95 M.Baudoin IV; #2 J.Clark)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
87.1%
(15:00) PENALTY TROY False Start 5 yards from TROY40 to TROY35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
86.2%
(15:00) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass incomplete short left to #18 D.Epps thrown to LA 48Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+55
85.5%
(14:55) #28 E.Crenshaw punt 55 yards to the LA 10 #0 R.Williams return for loss of 1 yard to the LA 09 (#87 C.Walls; #82 J.Thomas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18FG
18 plays · 81 yds · 7:2915% → 21%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
85.3%
(14:44) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 6 yards gain to the LA 15 (#98 J.Fils-Aime)Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+1
84.7%
(14:13) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 16 (#2 S.Cattledge; #98 J.Fils-Aime)Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+4
85.7%
(13:34) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 4 yards gain to the LA 20 (#4 T.Thompson; #0 J.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
85.1%
(12:49) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush middle for 16 yards gain to the LA 36 (#8 J.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
84.2%
(12:34) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 11 yards gain to the LA 47 (#1 L.Medina), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
82.8%
(12:07) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete short left to #86 T.Miller thrown to LA 48Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.6%
(12:03) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at TROY44, for 9 yards to the TROY44, out of bounds at TROY44. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (12:03) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at TROY43, for 10 yards to the TROY43, out of bounds at TROY43, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
82.3%
(11:09) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TROY42 (#7 J.Stringer; #3 D.Lafayette), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
82.4%
(10:43) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at TROY37, for 5 yards to the TROY37, out of bounds at TROY37Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
82.5%
(10:19) Shotgun #3 Z.Perry rush right for 1 yard gain to the TROY36 (#2 S.Cattledge; #15 T.Robbins)Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
84.1%
(09:36) PENALTY LA False Start (#50 C.Fordham) 5 yards from TROY36 to TROY41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+16
85.1%
(09:19) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #3 Z.Perry caught at TROY35, for 16 yards to the TROY25 (#7 J.Stringer; #2 S.Cattledge), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+14
82.6%
(08:48) Shotgun #7 B.Davis rush left for 14 yards gain to the TROY11 (#8 J.White), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
82.5%
(08:17) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush right for 4 yards gain to the TROY07 (#5 K.Levine)Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
82.6%
(07:37) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #7 B.Davis thrown to TROY08 QB hurried by #0 J.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-2
84.5%
(07:31) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 3 yards to the TROY10 (#1 L.Medina, #99 J.Peterson)Similar
Q4 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+32
78.9%
(07:10) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #92 N.Torney, LS: #48 H.Sims), clock 07:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0685% → 98%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.2%
(07:08) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #18 D.Epps caught at TROY27, for 2 yards to the TROY27 (#7 C.Flowers)Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
86.0%
(06:28) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short left to #18 D.Epps caught at TROY32, for 9 yards to the TROY36 (#7 C.Flowers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
87.1%
(05:47) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TROY46 (#91 P.Ashe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
88.8%
(05:05) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LA 48 (#31 D.Fite)Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
89.3%
(04:24) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LA 46 (#44 J.St. Andre; #68 F.West Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+27
89.4%
(03:47) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete short right to #14 E.Conner caught at LA 41, for 27 yards to the LA 19 (#11 B.Gordon, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.6%
(03:01) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush left for 19 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:55, 1ST DOWN #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20INT
15 plays · 47 yds · 1:243% → 3%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.9%
(02:49) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield rush left for 5 yards gain to the LA 25 (#7 J.Stringer; #14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh)Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+16
96.6%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #86 T.Miller caught at LA 30, for 16 yards to the LA 41 (#4 T.Thompson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
96.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 5 yards to the LA 36 (#22 D.Smith)Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
97.5%
(01:55) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete short left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. thrown to TROY48 broken up by #8 J.WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 15
OWN 36
0
97.6%
(01:50) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete short middle to #0 R.Williams thrown to LA 50Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+15
97.8%
(01:46) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #13 C.Robertson caught at LA 50, for 15 yards to the TROY49 (#3 D.Lafayette), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.4%
(01:40) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep left to #0 R.Williams thrown to TROY25 QB hurried by #15 T.RobbinsSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
97.5%
(01:33) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 2 yards to the LA 49 (#15 T.Robbins, #0 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
97.8%
(01:28) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep middle to #18 J.Johnson thrown to TROY25 broken up by #3 D.LafayetteSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+18
97.9%
(01:23) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #0 R.Williams caught at TROY33, for 18 yards to the TROY33, out of bounds at TROY33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
96.7%
(01:17) Shotgun #2 L.Winfield pass intercepted by #6 J.Powe at TROY21 #6 J.Powe return 4 yards to the TROY25, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:3398% → 98%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.3%
(01:09) Kneel down by #10 T.Kilcrease at TROY23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
98.3%
(00:31) Kneel down by #10 T.Kilcrease at TROY22 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:16
(07:19) #1 J.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:16 #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)
+9.1
TD · Q4 2:55
(03:01) Shotgun #1 J.Lovett rush left for 19 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:55, 1ST DOWN #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)
+8.2
TD · Q2 8:03
(08:07) #10 T.Kilcrease rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LA 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:03 #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com