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TROY

Troy 37 at UL Monroe 14

ULM
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:40 · Evan Crenshaw punt for 57 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−4.9Score differential−2.7Pregame prior−4.6Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Hunter Herring pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 7 yds for a TD (A. Wells Run For Two-point Conversion) — ULM win probability +7.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 9:40: Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 12 yds for a TD (Hunter Herring PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +10.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:40: Timeout UL Monroe, clock 09:40 — TROY win probability +6.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:20: Scott Taylor Renfroe 41 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +7.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:32: Tray Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +20.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:21ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:01TROY 4th & 7 at ULM 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00ULM 4th & 4 at TROY 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:17TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:34ULM 4th & 9 at TROY 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:54ULM 4th & 6 at TROY 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:40ULM 4th & 11 at TROY 12, down 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−9.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:40TROY 4th & 24 at TROY 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−5.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:32ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−4.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:32ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−4.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:53TROY 4th & 2 at ULM 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−2.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:20TROY 4th & 7 at ULM 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−12.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:12TROY 4th & 3 at ULM 8, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−11.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:26TROY 4th & 1 at ULM 17, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−1.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:41ULM 4th & 2 at TROY 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:41ULM 4th & 2 at TROY 45, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:52TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 47, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:27ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 19, down 23
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:32TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:06TROY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:40ULM Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:32TROY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:30TROY Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:1762% → 62%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
37.9%
Tray Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+29
38.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 29 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
38.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
38.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to RaRa Thomas for 9 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
38.3%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
37.6%
Tae Meadows run for 20 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0638% → 38%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
37.7%
UL Monroe Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
37.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic TrujilloSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
37.5%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:1662% → 64%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
37.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
37.8%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
38.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 11 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
37.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 31 yds to the ULM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
37.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 9 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-10
37.3%
(08:56) Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete short left to Mothershed,Roman thrown to ULM00 QB hurried by Perkins-McAllister,D'Arco PENALTY TROY Holding (Ash,Caleb) 10 yards from ULM16 to ULM26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
37.4%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+9
37.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 9 yds to the ULM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
36.7%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the ULM 8Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 8
-3
36.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 11Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
36.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
36.4%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5736% → 42%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
35.8%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 28 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
36.4%
Hunter Herring run for no gain to the TROY 47Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
36.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 5 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+4
36.1%
PENALTY TROY Offside (Ash,Caleb) 4 yards from TROY42 to TROY38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
35.0%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
35.4%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic TrujilloSimilar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
35.5%
Dorian Lewis run for 12 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
35.5%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for no gain to the TROY 23Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
35.3%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for no gain to the TROY 23Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+6
34.6%
Aidan Armenta run for 6 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+10
34.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 10 yds to the TROY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.1%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 7 yds for a TD (A. Wells Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:2560% → 60%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
40.5%
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-6
40.1%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the TROY 39 Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson Worley) to the TROY 29Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+9
41.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 9 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
38.2%
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
37.9%
Jarris Williams run for no gain to the TROY 45Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-2
37.7%
Jarris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
39.6%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ULM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 5:1337% → 41%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
36.8%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 23 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
41.3%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 26 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
42.5%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 2 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-1
43.5%
Hunter Herring run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 35Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
42.5%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+17
40.1%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 17 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
43.0%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 4 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
43.2%
Landon Graves run for no gain to the TROY 14Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+5
42.2%
Hunter Herring run for 5 yds to the TROY 9Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-5
41.0%
PENALTY ULM Delay Of Game (Armenta,Aidan) 5 yards from TROY09 to TROY14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
40.9%
Danny Hagan 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4257% → 62%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
42.8%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
43.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 13 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
42.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 6 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
41.3%
RaRa Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 40Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+60
38.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 60 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8END OF HALF
12 plays · 61 yds · 2:4730% → 26%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
29.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 34 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
31.9%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake GodfreySimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-5
31.7%
PENALTY ULM False Start (Godfrey,Jake) 5 yards from TROY41 to TROY46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+11
30.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to JP Coulter for 11 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+10
24.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 10 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
25.6%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Hunter Herring for 2 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
25.5%
Dorian Lewis run for no gain to the TROY 23Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+9
24.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for 9 yds to the TROY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
25.6%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic TrujilloSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:1332% → 43%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.8%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan BibbsSimilar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
33.0%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 6 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+6
33.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 6 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
34.4%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Donnie Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 45Similar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
34.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Zach Palmer-Smith for 4 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+9
34.0%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to JP Coulter for 9 yds to the TROY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
35.3%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to JP CoulterSimilar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+16
35.2%
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for 16 yds to the TROY 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
34.0%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 12Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
33.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan BibbsSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 11
OPP 12
0
32.0%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan BibbsSimilar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+12
42.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 12 yds for a TD (Hunter Herring PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:4964% → 58%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
36.2%
(09:34) Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker rush middle for 0 yards to the TROY41 (Wells,Kevontay) PENALTY TROY Holding (Worley,Jackson) 10 yards from TROY41 to TROY31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+3
39.0%
Tray Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 17
OWN 34
-7
39.4%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TROY 27Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 24
OWN 27
0
40.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Jarris WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 24
OWN 27
0
41.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:0240% → 38%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
40.3%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 15Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+5
39.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 5 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-8
38.5%
Aidan Armenta sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ULM 12Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+9
37.9%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 45 yds , returns for 9 yds to the ULM 48Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+9
37.9%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 45 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 9 yds to the TROY 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:0363% → 73%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+27
37.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 27 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the ULM 39Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
34.0%
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+3
34.0%
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+5
36.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tae Meadows for 5 yds to the ULM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
31.7%
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
31.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the ULM 23Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
33.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:20
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
26.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:2132% → 31%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
31.8%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 12 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
31.3%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Jah-Mal Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the ULM 11 Aidan Armenta fumbled, recovered by TROY Elijah Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0090% → 88%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
10.4%
Tray Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
12.1%
PENALTY ULM UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Langston,Seidrion) 15 yards from TROY35 to TROY50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1117% → 17%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
16.7%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan BibbsSimilar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-14
16.5%
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Joe Lott return for 14 yds to the ULM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4890% → 92%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
10.1%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the ULM 9Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+1
10.3%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the ULM 8 Tae Meadows fumbled, recovered by TROY Jackson WorleySimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
10.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Trae SwartzSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
8.3%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:358% → 7%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
7.7%
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for no gain to the ULM 35Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
6.9%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to JP Coulter for 15 yds JP Coulter fumbled, recovered by TROY TJ Thompson , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:5993% → 94%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
50
+4
7.2%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the ULM 46Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
6.4%
UL Monroe Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ULM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
6.0%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the ULM 23Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
5.6%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
5.4%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the ULM 17Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-1
5.9%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19INT TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:494% → 1%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
4.0%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic TrujilloSimilar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
3.7%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 6 yds to the ULM 24Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+8
4.2%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 8 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
3.2%
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic TrujilloSimilar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+23
3.1%
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Julian Nixon for 23 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
3.5%
Aidan Armenta sacked by Elijah Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 12
OPP 47
-53
0.8%
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Joe Lott return for 53 yds for a TD UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:321% → 0%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
0.5%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 13 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
0.5%
Landon Graves run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 7
50
+4
0.4%
Landon Graves run for 4 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
0.4%
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 1 yd to the TROY 45Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
0.4%
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Jonathan BibbsSimilar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
0.4%
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Jonathan BibbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4399% → 100%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.6%
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 5
50
-3
0.5%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 47Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
0.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+4
0.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 47 yds , Nic Trujillo returns for 4 yds to the ULM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
0.3%
Landon Graves pass complete to Julian Nixon for 7 yds to the ULM 17Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+1
0.3%
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for 1 yd to the ULM 18Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
0.2%
D'Shaun Ford run for 3 yds to the ULM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.2%
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Caleb GroceSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
0.2%
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 19Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Caleb GroceSimilar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
0.2%
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
0.2%
T. Kilcrease takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:32
Tray Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q3 9:40
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 12 yds for a TD (Hunter Herring PAT MISSED)
+10.8
TD · Q2 14:55
Hunter Herring pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 7 yds for a TD (A. Wells Run For Two-point Conversion)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com