TROY
Troy 37 at UL Monroe 14
ULM2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey play
What moved it - hover a play below
Q4 0:00 · T. Kilcrease takes a knee
01
TROY has the ball
−40
02
TROY leading by 23
−13
03
Market gave ULM a 36% pregame chance
−5
04
Blowout context favors the offense
−2
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
TROY · Drive 1TD · 8 plays · 68 yds
Q1 14:56
Jacob Green kickoff for 51 yds , Peyton Higgins return for 18 yds to the TROY 32
0.0
Q1 14:49
Tray Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 38
-2.7
Q1 14:16
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 29 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST down
-1.6
Q1 13:49
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ Epps
-1.3
Q1 13:38
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to RaRa Thomas for 9 yds to the ULM 24
0.0
Q1 13:08
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 12:32
Tae Meadows run for 20 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-12.0
Q1 12:32
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 12:32
+18.1
ULM · Drive 2PUNT · 5 plays · 3 yds
Q1 12:32
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-17.1
Q1 12:27
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the ULM 26
+3.1
Q1 11:47
UL Monroe Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declined
0.0
Q1 11:28
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic Trujillo
0.0
Q1 11:21
Makenzie Ryan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 33
0.0
TROY · Drive 3FG · 14 plays · 56 yds
Q1 11:21
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 11:21
-3.8
Q1 11:17
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman Mothershed
0.0
Q1 11:11
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TROY 33
0.0
Q1 10:32
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 11 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 9:59
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 31 yds to the ULM 25 for a 1ST down
-0.9
Q1 9:25
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 9 yds to the ULM 16
0.0
Q1 8:48
(08:56) Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete short left to Mothershed,Roman thrown to ULM00 QB hurried by Perkins-McAllister,D'Arco PENALTY TROY Holding (Ash,Caleb) 10 yards from ULM16 to ULM26. NO PLAY.
-0.3
Q1 8:43
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the ULM 23
0.0
Q1 8:00
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 9 yds to the ULM 14 for a 1ST down
+0.3
Q1 7:17
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the ULM 8
0.0
Q1 6:30
Tucker Kilcrease run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 11
+0.1
Q1 6:05
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray Taylor
0.0
Q1 6:01
Scott Taylor Renfroe 29 yd FG GOOD
-2.5
Q1 6:01
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 06:01
+5.9
ULM · Drive 4TD · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q1 6:01
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-8.0
Q1 5:52
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 28 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST down
+4.7
Q1 5:23
Hunter Herring run for no gain to the TROY 47
+1.3
Q1 4:37
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 5 yds to the TROY 42
0.0
Q1 4:07
PENALTY TROY Offside (Ash,Caleb) 4 yards from TROY42 to TROY38. NO PLAY.
+0.5
Q1 3:38
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 3 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 3:00
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic Trujillo
+0.2
Q1 2:43
Dorian Lewis run for 12 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q1 2:01
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for no gain to the TROY 23
0.0
Q1 1:32
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for no gain to the TROY 23
0.0
Q1 0:56
Aidan Armenta run for 6 yds to the TROY 17
-0.1
Q1 0:26
Timeout Troy, clock 00:26
-0.9
Q1 0:00
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 10 yds to the TROY 7 for a 1ST down
+0.2
Q2 14:55
Hunter Herring pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 7 yds for a TD (A. Wells Run For Two-point Conversion)
+12.2
Q2 14:55
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 14:55
-17.4
TROY · Drive 5PUNT · 10 plays · 15 yds
Q2 14:50
Jacob Green kickoff for 62 yds , Peyton Higgins return for 25 yds to the TROY 28
+13.8
Q2 14:42
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the TROY 35
-3.9
Q2 14:05
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the TROY 39 Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson Worley) to the TROY 29
0.0
Q2 13:47
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray Taylor
0.0
Q2 13:40
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 9 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 13:10
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 13:10
-0.5
Q2 13:05
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the TROY 45
0.0
Q2 12:26
Jarris Williams run for no gain to the TROY 45
-0.6
Q2 11:53
Jarris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 43
0.0
Q2 11:17
Evan Crenshaw punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ULM 15
+0.7
ULM · Drive 6MISSED FG · 14 plays · 71 yds
Q2 11:17
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 11:17
+5.5
Q2 11:07
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 23 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 10:23
Hunter Herring pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 26 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST down
+3.5
Q2 9:52
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 2 yds to the TROY 34
+2.0
Q2 9:08
Hunter Herring run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 35
0.0
Q2 8:49
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 08:49
-1.8
Q2 8:42
UL Monroe Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
0.0
Q2 8:34
Hunter Herring pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 17 yds to the TROY 18 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q2 7:56
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 4 yds to the TROY 14
-1.0
Q2 7:08
Landon Graves run for no gain to the TROY 14
0.0
Q2 6:47
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 06:47
-0.2
Q2 6:41
Hunter Herring run for 5 yds to the TROY 9
0.0
Q2 6:10
PENALTY ULM Delay Of Game (Armenta,Aidan) 5 yards from TROY09 to TROY14. NO PLAY.
-0.4
Q2 5:54
Danny Hagan 32 yd FG MISSED
+0.1
TROY · Drive 7TD · 6 plays · 80 yds
Q2 5:54
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 05:54
-9.0
Q2 5:48
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 22
0.0
Q2 5:06
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 13 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q2 4:34
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 6 yds to the TROY 41
+0.3
Q2 3:51
RaRa Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 40
-0.7
Q2 3:06
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 60 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-8.8
ULM · Drive 8END OF HALF · 12 plays · 61 yds
Q2 3:06
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 56 yds
+0.7
Q2 2:47
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 34 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST down
+3.5
Q2 2:16
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jake Godfrey
+2.6
Q2 2:16
PENALTY ULM False Start (Godfrey,Jake) 5 yards from TROY41 to TROY46. NO PLAY.
0.0
Q2 2:07
Aidan Armenta pass complete to JP Coulter for 11 yds to the TROY 35
-0.6
Q2 2:00
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 02:00
-11.2
Q2 1:54
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 10 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 1:14
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Hunter Herring for 2 yds to the TROY 23
+0.2
Q2 0:44
Dorian Lewis run for no gain to the TROY 23
-0.9
Q2 0:01
Timeout Troy, clock 00:01
-0.1
Q2 0:00
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nate Sullivan Jr. for 9 yds to the TROY 14 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q2 0:00
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic Trujillo
0.0
ULM · Drive 9TD · 14 plays · 75 yds
Q3 15:00
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+9.8
Q3 14:53
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan Bibbs
+0.1
Q3 14:42
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 6 yds to the ULM 46
+0.2
Q3 13:51
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jake Godfrey for 6 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 13:23
Aidan Armenta sacked by Donnie Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 45
+0.9
Q3 12:32
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Zach Palmer-Smith for 4 yds to the TROY 36
+0.9
Q3 12:00
Aidan Armenta pass complete to JP Coulter for 9 yds to the TROY 27 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 11:22
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to JP Coulter
0.0
Q3 11:14
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for 16 yds to the TROY 11 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q3 10:35
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 12
-1.6
Q3 9:51
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan Bibbs
-0.3
Q3 9:45
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan Bibbs
0.0
Q3 9:40
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Brandon Buckhaulter for 12 yds for a TD (Hunter Herring PAT MISSED)
+14.5
Q3 9:40
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 09:40
-18.9
TROY · Drive 10PUNT · 6 plays · -14 yds
Q3 9:35
Jacob Green kickoff for 50 yds , Peyton Higgins return for 26 yds to the TROY 41
+16.9
Q3 9:29
(09:34) Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker rush middle for 0 yards to the TROY41 (Wells,Kevontay) PENALTY TROY Holding (Worley,Jackson) 10 yards from TROY41 to TROY31. NO PLAY.
-6.0
Q3 9:13
Tray Taylor run for 3 yds to the TROY 34
+0.9
Q3 8:37
Tucker Kilcrease sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TROY 27
0.0
Q3 7:53
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Jarris Williams
-0.9
Q3 7:40
Evan Crenshaw punt for 57 yds
0.0
ULM · Drive 11PUNT · 6 plays · -4 yds
Q3 7:40
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 07:40
+4.7
Q3 7:34
Zach Palmer-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 15
0.0
Q3 6:50
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 5 yds to the ULM 20
+0.1
Q3 6:15
Aidan Armenta sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ULM 12
0.0
Q3 5:32
Makenzie Ryan punt for 45 yds , returns for 9 yds to the ULM 48
0.0
Q3 5:32
Makenzie Ryan punt for 45 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 9 yds to the TROY 34
0.0
TROY · Drive 12FG · 9 plays · 43 yds
Q3 5:23
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 27 yds to the ULM 39 for a 1ST down
-4.8
Q3 4:51
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the ULM 39
-1.4
Q3 4:16
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds to the ULM 34
+1.2
Q3 3:37
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the ULM 31
+0.4
Q3 2:53
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tae Meadows for 5 yds to the ULM 26 for a 1ST down
+0.6
Q3 2:23
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the ULM 24
-0.6
Q3 1:48
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the ULM 23
0.0
Q3 1:25
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete
0.0
Q3 1:20
Scott Taylor Renfroe 41 yd FG GOOD
-8.2
ULM · Drive 13FUMBLE · 3 plays · -11 yds
Q3 1:20
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+0.6
Q3 1:01
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Jonathan Bibbs for 12 yds to the ULM 37 for a 1ST down
+7.8
Q3 0:40
Aidan Armenta sacked by Jah-Mal Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the ULM 11 Aidan Armenta fumbled, recovered by TROY Elijah Davis , return for 0 yards
0.0
TROY · Drive 14TD · 2 plays · 11 yds
Q3 0:32
Tray Taylor run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-16.4
Q3 0:32
PENALTY ULM UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Langston,Seidrion) 15 yards from TROY35 to TROY50. NO PLAY.
+8.6
ULM · Drive 15INT · 3 plays · 0 yds
Q3 0:28
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 39 yds , Kevontay Wells return for no gain to the ULM 11
-8.4
Q3 0:22
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Jonathan Bibbs
+2.8
Q3 0:11
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Joe Lott return for 14 yds to the ULM 15
0.0
TROY · Drive 16FG · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q3 0:00
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the ULM 9
-3.0
Q4 14:27
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the ULM 8 Tae Meadows fumbled, recovered by TROY Jackson Worley
-0.8
Q4 14:17
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Trae Swartz
0.0
Q4 14:12
Scott Taylor Renfroe 26 yd FG GOOD
-2.2
Q4 14:12
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 14:12
+4.7
ULM · Drive 17FUMBLE · 3 plays · 15 yds
Q4 14:12
Paddy McAteer kickoff
-4.9
Q4 14:07
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for no gain to the ULM 35
+1.3
Q4 13:32
Aidan Armenta pass complete to JP Coulter for 15 yds JP Coulter fumbled, recovered by TROY TJ Thompson , return to the 50 yard line
-1.1
TROY · Drive 18DOWNS · 6 plays · 32 yds
Q4 13:25
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the ULM 46
-0.4
Q4 12:51
UL Monroe Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ULM 26 for a 1ST down
-0.4
Q4 12:24
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the ULM 23
-0.5
Q4 11:46
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the ULM 20
0.0
Q4 11:04
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the ULM 17
0.0
Q4 10:26
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 18
-0.5
ULM · Drive 19INT TD · 8 plays · 35 yds
Q4 10:19
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic Trujillo
+0.9
Q4 10:04
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 6 yds to the ULM 24
0.0
Q4 9:22
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 8 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST down
+0.1
Q4 8:57
Aidan Armenta pass incomplete to Nic Trujillo
0.0
Q4 8:37
Aidan Armenta pass complete to Julian Nixon for 23 yds to the TROY 45 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 8:18
Aidan Armenta sacked by Elijah Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 47
-0.3
Q4 7:30
Aidan Armenta pass intercepted Joe Lott return for 53 yds for a TD UL Monroe Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
-2.0
Q4 7:30
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 07:30
+1.8
ULM · Drive 20DOWNS · 8 plays · 21 yds
Q4 7:23
Paddy McAteer kickoff for 43 yds , Rylan Green return for 12 yds to the ULM 34
-3.7
Q4 7:23
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 07:23
+1.8
Q4 7:13
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 13 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST down
0.0
Q4 6:32
Landon Graves run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
0.0
Q4 6:02
Landon Graves run for 4 yds to the TROY 46
0.0
Q4 5:24
Zach Palmer-Smith run for 1 yd to the TROY 45
0.0
Q4 4:41
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Jonathan Bibbs
0.0
Q4 4:41
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Jonathan Bibbs
0.0
TROY · Drive 21PUNT · 4 plays · 2 yds
Q4 4:35
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line
-1.6
Q4 3:37
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 47
0.0
Q4 3:05
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Ethan Conner
0.0
Q4 2:52
Evan Crenshaw punt for 47 yds , Nic Trujillo returns for 4 yds to the ULM 10
0.0
ULM · Drive 22PUNT · 9 plays · 9 yds
Q4 2:40
Landon Graves pass complete to Julian Nixon for 7 yds to the ULM 17
+1.5
Q4 2:14
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for 1 yd to the ULM 18
0.0
Q4 2:00
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 02:00
0.0
Q4 1:52
D'Shaun Ford run for 3 yds to the ULM 21 for a 1ST down
-0.1
Q4 1:21
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Caleb Groce
0.0
Q4 1:15
Tyrell Reed Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 19
0.0
Q4 0:34
Landon Graves pass incomplete to Caleb Groce
0.0
Q4 0:34
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 00:34
0.0
Q4 0:27
Makenzie Ryan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 43
0.0
TROY · Drive 23END OF GAME · 1 play · -1 yds
Q4 0:00
T. Kilcrease takes a knee
-1.5
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 9:40
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 09:40
-18.9
KEY PLAY · Q1 12:32
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 12:32
+18.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 14:55
Timeout UL Monroe, clock 14:55
-17.4