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TROY

Troy 48 at Texas State 41

TXST
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2025 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:29 · Evan Crenshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 26Home team on offense+2.0Pregame prior+16.5Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:27: Jarris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +12.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:45: Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK) — TXST win probability +10.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:45: Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TROY win probability +16.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:55: Tyler Robles 37 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +14.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:13: DJ Epps 18 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Tucker Kilcrease Pass to DJ Epps for Two-Point Conversion) — TROY win probability +50.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 14:53TXST 4th & 1 at TROY 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:15TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:15TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:29TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:56TROY 4th & 5 at TXST 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:35TXST 4th & 4 at TROY 23, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.1%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:11TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00TROY 4th & 22 at TXST 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:03TROY 4th & 21 at TXST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−5.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:57TXST 4th & 2 at TROY 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.0%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00TROY 4th & 11 at TXST 41, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:45TROY 4th & 2 at TXST 2, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−7.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:40TXST 4th & 2 at TROY 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.0%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:55TXST 4th & 2 at TROY 18, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%−2.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−13.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:56TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:29TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:12TROY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:08TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:34TROY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:27TROY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:45TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:45TROY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:13TROY Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    22.4%−3.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5769% → 69%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
68.6%
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
68.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 6 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
68.6%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TROY 46Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
68.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+35
68.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 35 yds to the TROY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
68.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TROY 6Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
68.6%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 8Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
69.4%
Brad Jackson run for 8 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:4131% → 30%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
69.2%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 23Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
69.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 5 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+77
70.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 49 yds , Beau Sparks returns for 77 yds for a TD Texas State Penalty, (Yards) to the TROY 0Similar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+78
70.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 50 yds , Beau Sparks returns for 78 yds Texas State Penalty, (10 Yards) to the TXST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:5571% → 72%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+18
70.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 18 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
71.0%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+59
71.7%
Greg Burrell run for 59 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5129% → 28%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Tae Meadows run for no gain to the TROY 25Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to RaRa ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to RaRa ThomasSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:0073% → 82%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
73.4%
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
73.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 37Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+17
73.4%
Brad Jackson run for 17 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
73.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
73.8%
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the TROY 43Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+7
73.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 7 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
74.0%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-4
74.0%
Brad Jackson sacked by Steven Cattledge for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 37Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-2
73.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the TROY 29 Texas State Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the TROY 39Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+14
73.7%
Brad Jackson run for 14 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
74.4%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 28Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+21
74.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 21 yds to the TROY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1719% → 26%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.9%
Jarris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 24Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+19
81.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 19 yds to the TROY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
74.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to RaRa Thomas for 57 yds for a TD Texas State Penalty, (Yards) declined (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:5878% → 85%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
78.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 6 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
78.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+62
85.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 62 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
22 plays · 75 yds · 7:2617% → 23%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
83.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 16 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
82.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-5
82.6%
PENALTY TROY False Start (Henry,Matt) 5 yards from TROY44 to TROY39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+12
83.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 12 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
82.1%
Tae Meadows run for 8 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
81.8%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
81.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
81.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-10
85.0%
Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+9
85.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 9 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+5
85.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 5 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
84.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 15 yds to the TXST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
84.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 7 yds to the TXST 5Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
84.3%
Ethan Conner run for no gain to the TXST 5Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+4
87.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
86.3%
PENALTY TROY False Start (Conner,Ethan) 5 yards from TXST01 to TXST06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
76.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jackson Worley for 6 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
76.9%
PENALTY TROY False Start (Townsend,Tra'jon) 5 yards from TXST03 to TXST08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:5384% → 92%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
84.2%
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the TXST 10Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+5
84.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the TXST 15Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+20
84.0%
Brad Jackson run for 20 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
84.4%
Brad Jackson sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 34Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
84.2%
Greg Burrell run for 13 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
85.1%
Greg Burrell run for 4 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+20
85.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 20 yds to the TROY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
86.1%
Brad Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+2
85.9%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the TROY 31Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+8
85.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 8 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+42
92.1%
Tyler Robles 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:4715% → 14%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
85.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the TROY 30Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
85.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
86.1%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 20 , Beau Sparks returns for 1 yd to the TXST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:3789% → 90%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 1 yd to the TXST 21Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
88.1%
Brad Jackson sacked by Jordan Stringer for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 16Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
89.6%
David Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 35Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
89.6%
David Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:1110% → 13%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
90.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 19 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
88.5%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 5 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+18
83.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 18 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-12
86.2%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by DonTerry Russell for a loss of 12 yards to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 22
OPP 35
0
90.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 22
OPP 35
+53
87.4%
Paddy McAteer 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3317% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
83.5%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
83.7%
Troy Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
83.9%
Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker sacked for loss of 8 yards to the TROY16 (Russell,DonTerry) PENALTY TXST Holding (Royal Jr.,Craig) 10 yards from TROY24 to TROY34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
82.9%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
82.9%
Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete short left to Thomas,RaRa thrown to TROY45 PENALTY TXST Offside (Snyder,Kenard) 5 yards from TROY36 to TROY41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-1
82.1%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+9
82.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 9 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+48
81.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 48 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, (Yards) to the TXST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.9%
Jarris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:2327% → 29%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
73.1%
Tae Meadows run for 8 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+33
71.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 33 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
69.8%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Treylin Payne for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 23Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 15
OPP 23
-1
71.4%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 24Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 16
OPP 24
-5
73.4%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Tymere Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 29Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 21
OPP 29
+47
71.1%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:1272% → 86%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
71.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
72.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
73.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-5
73.8%
PENALTY TXST False Start (DeLeon,Justin) 5 yards from TXST48 to TXST43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+9
72.4%
Brad Jackson run for 9 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
73.6%
Greg Burrell run for no gain to the TROY 48Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+2
72.0%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+40
74.5%
Greg Burrell run for 40 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
75.3%
Greg Burrell run for 4 yds to the TROY 2Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.3%
Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Stringer) to the TROY 1Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4715% → 33%
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 10 yds to the TROY 25Similar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
84.3%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
83.3%
Jarris Williams run for 5 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+16
83.4%
Tray Taylor run for 16 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
82.4%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Amipeleasi Langi Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 42Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+6
82.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 6 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-5
83.7%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 41
+31
86.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 31 yds to the TXST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
81.8%
Jarris Williams run for 3 yds to the TXST 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
81.8%
Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete short right to Taylor,Tray thrown to TXST00 PENALTY TXST Pass Interference (Crosby,Bobby) 5 yards from TXST07 to TXST02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.8%
Jarris Williams pass incomplete to Trae SwartzSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TXST 2Similar
Q4 12:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 8:4576% → 93%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
75.6%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 16Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
75.1%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+5
74.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
75.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 9 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-3
77.6%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 33Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+11
75.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 11 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.9%
Greg Burrell run for no gain to the TXST 44Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
77.2%
Greg Burrell run for 8 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
77.9%
Greg Burrell run for no gain to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+7
76.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 7 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
78.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+7
79.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
79.8%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the TROY 24Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
79.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TROY 23Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+5
78.3%
Brad Jackson run for 5 yds to the TROY 18Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+37
93.2%
Tyler Robles 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:4210% → 52%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
90.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to RaRa Thomas for 13 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
88.4%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
87.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tae MeadowsSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
88.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tae Meadows for no gain to the TROY 42Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+9
90.7%
Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete short right to Thomas,RaRa thrown to TXST48, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TXST Pass Interference (Terrell,Khamari) 9 yards from TROY42 to TXST49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
88.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 20 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
84.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
86.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
89.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to RaRa Thomas for 11 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
38.9%
DJ Epps 18 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Tucker Kilcrease Pass to DJ Epps for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
48.5%
PENALTY TXST Roughing The Passer (Atwood,Amarion) 15 yards from TROY35 to TROY50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 1:0756% → 69%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
55.9%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 2Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
55.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 4Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+31
55.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 31 yds to the TXST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
57.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Ty Stamey for 6 yds to the TXST 41Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+35
62.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 35 yds to the TROY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+42
69.3%
Tyler Robles 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
11.5%
T.Meadows rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by B.Crosby at TXST 25.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
11.1%
T.Kilcrease pass complete. Catch made by D.Epps for 7 yards. Pushed out of bounds by A.Jones at TXST 18.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+8
11.8%
T.Kilcrease pass complete. Catch made by D.Epps for 8 yards. Tackled by R.Nolan at TXST 10.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
11.5%
J.Williams rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by A.Jones at TXST 6.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.5%
T.Kilcrease pass complete. Catch made by D.Epps for 6 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 25%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.9%
B.Jackson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
24.8%
B.Jackson pass complete. Catch made by K.Evans for 9 yards. Tackled by K.Levine at TROY 16.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
26.8%
L.Pare rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Williams, J.Powe at TROY 16.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
24.6%
B.Jackson rushed for 0 yards. Tackled by E.Davis at TROY 16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:13
DJ Epps 18 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Tucker Kilcrease Pass to DJ Epps for Two-Point Conversion)
-50.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-24.6
TD · Q4 12:45
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Trae Swartz for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com