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USM

Southern Miss 38 at Georgia Southern 35

GASO
2025 · Week 7 · Oct 9, 2025 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:51 · Reed Harradine punt for 23 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime per score still needed
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense−5.5Score differential−2.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6Time per score still needed−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:06: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 30 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK) — USM win probability +19.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:03: JC French IV run for 5 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +11.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:24: Matt Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK) — USM win probability +9.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:20: JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +7.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: JC French IV run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK) — GASO win probability +22.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Offense has -6 timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:57GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16USM 4th & 1 at USM 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:16USM 4th & 1 at USM 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:57GASO 4th & 1 at USM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.4%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:42GASO 4th & 17 at GASO 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:46USM 4th & 6 at GASO 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:46USM 4th & 6 at GASO 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:18GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:38USM 4th & 11 at GASO 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:34GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:51USM 4th & 5 at USM 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:25GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:48USM 4th & 6 at midfield, up 21
    Close callPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:24USM 4th & 11 at GASO 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:34USM 4th & 8 at USM 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:53GASO 4th & 15 at USM 49, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:23GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:42USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:06USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:18USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:03GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:24USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:19GASO Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:20GASO Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:14GASO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5748% → 48%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
48.1%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GASO 26Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
48.3%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 10 yds to the GASO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
48.5%
JC French IV run for 1 yd to the GASO 37Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
48.6%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Dalen CobbSimilar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
48.5%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Marcus Sanders Jr.Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
48.4%
Alex Smith punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3351% → 51%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
48.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 11Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+1
48.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 1 yd to the USM 12Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+6
49.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
49.1%
Reed Harradine punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Peyton Plott at the GASO 42Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
49.1%
Reed Harradine punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Peyton Plott at the USM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:4749% → 53%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
49.4%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the USM 46Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
49.5%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 5 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
49.5%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
49.4%
JC French IV run for 2 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
50.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 8 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+27
50.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 25 yds to the USM 4 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Najae Hallenbeck) to the USM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.7%
David Mbadinga run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 3:2448% → 52%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
52.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+4
52.4%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+4
52.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
52.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-1
52.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 25Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+15
53.6%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep right to Metcalf,Elijah thrown to GASO35 PENALTY GASO Pass Interference (Smith,Dorrian) 15 yards from USM25 to USM40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
53.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+7
53.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
50
+50
48.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 50 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5450% → 49%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
JC French IV pass incomplete to OJ ArnoldSimilar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
49.8%
Georgia Southern Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
49.3%
JC French IV sacked by JJ Hawkins for a loss of 7 yards to the GASO 18Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
49.1%
Alex Smith punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the USM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4851% → 51%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
48.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 7
50
+1
48.5%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the GASO 49Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
48.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+44
49.5%
Jack Murley punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GASO 5 Georgia Southern Penalty, (Yards) to the GASO 5Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 6
OPP 49
+46
49.5%
Jack Murley punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GASO 5 Georgia Southern Penalty, (2 Yards) to the GASO 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2250% → 50%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
50.0%
David Mbadinga run for 1 yd to the GASO 4Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
50.1%
David Mbadinga run for 2 yds to the GASO 6Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
49.9%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Marcus Sanders Jr.Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 7
OWN 6
+7
49.6%
Alex Smith punt for 46 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 7 yds to the GASO 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:1652% → 58%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
48.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the GASO 44Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+30
48.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 30 yds to the GASO 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
47.3%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short right to Morris,Kadinn thrown to GASO00 PENALTY GASO Holding (Collier,Devin) 7 yards from GASO14 to GASO07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
47.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
47.2%
Georgia Southern Penalty, (2 Yards) to the GASO 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:4643% → 43%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
42.7%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 12Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+20
42.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 20 yds to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
42.7%
JC French IV pass intercepted Jonathan Pennix return for no gain to the GASO 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:1158% → 57%
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
41.6%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the GASO 46Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
41.5%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short to Jones,Matt thrown to GASO35 QB hurried by Secka,Kebba PENALTY USM Holding (Roman,Broderick) 10 yards from GASO46 to USM44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 20
OWN 44
-5
42.9%
PENALTY USM False Start (Davis,Micah) 5 yards from USM44 to USM39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 25
OWN 39
+11
42.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 14
50
-5
42.7%
PENALTY USM False Start (Slayden,Carlos) 5 yards from USM50 to USM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+8
42.9%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
42.7%
Jack Murley punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Peyton Plott at the GASO 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:5443% → 42%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
43.1%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the GASO 26Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
43.6%
JC French IV pass complete to David Mbadinga for 6 yds to the GASO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
43.5%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
43.2%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 5 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
42.8%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Marcus Sanders Jr.Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
42.4%
Alex Smith punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3558% → 58%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
42.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the USM 8Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
42.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 5 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
42.4%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the USM 13Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
41.6%
Reed Harradine punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4543% → 43%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
43.4%
OJ Arnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 37Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-21
42.8%
JC French IV pass intercepted Michael Montgomery return for 21 yds to the GASO 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:4158% → 76%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
42.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 1 yd to the GASO 43Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
42.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the GASO 35Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
42.4%
run for no gain to the GASO 35 fumbled, recovered by USM Braylon BraxtonSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+5
43.7%
PENALTY GASO Offside (Iloh,Uche) 5 yards from GASO35 to GASO30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
24.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 30 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 1:4124% → 22%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
24.2%
(05:06) PENALTY GASO False Start (Brown,Camden) 5 yards from GASO25 to GASO20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
24.1%
OJ Arnold run for 1 yd to the GASO 21Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
23.5%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Dalen CobbSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
23.2%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun French IV,JC pass incomplete short left to Sanders Jr.,Marcus thrown to GASO40 PENALTY USM Roughing The Passer declined USM Pass Interference (Richard, Jr.,Anthony) 15 yards from GASO21 to GASO36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
24.3%
JC French IV sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the GASO 26Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
23.5%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Marcus Sanders Jr.Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+6
23.2%
David Mbadinga run for 6 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
22.1%
Alex Smith punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:5975% → 86%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
24.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 17 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
23.4%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+11
23.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 11 yds to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
22.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Tychaun ChapmanSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
22.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+20
20.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 20 yds to the GASO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
19.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the GASO 22Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+7
19.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 7 yds to the GASO 15 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
19.2%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Pittman,Jeffery pass incomplete short middle to Heath,Kyirin thrown to GASO00 PENALTY GASO Pass Interference (Tyson,Brandon) 13 yards from GASO15 to GASO02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0118% → 16%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
18.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 8 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 2
OWN 31
-2
16.3%
JC French IV sacked by J'Mond Tapp for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 29Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+3
15.9%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 3 yds to the GASO 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:0886% → 88%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
13.4%
Jeffery Pittman run for 16 yds to the USM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
12.2%
Braylon Braxton sacked by CJ Allen Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 42Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+8
12.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 6
50
0
11.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 6
50
0
12.3%
Reed Harradine punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Peyton Plott at the GASO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 5:4017% → 23%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
16.7%
OJ Arnold run for 11 yds to the GASO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
16.6%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the GASO 26Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
16.2%
OJ Arnold run for no gain to the GASO 26Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-5
15.6%
PENALTY GASO False Start (Brown,Camden) 5 yards from GASO26 to GASO21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+20
15.2%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 20 yds to the GASO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
15.2%
David Mbadinga run for 6 yds to the GASO 47Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+13
14.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 13 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
14.0%
JC French IV run for 2 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
12.3%
David Mbadinga run for 4 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+6
11.9%
JC French IV pass complete to Taylor Bradshaw for 6 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
12.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 7 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+16
11.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Ahmon Green for 16 yds to the USM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.2%
JC French IV run for 5 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:3483% → 96%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
16.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
17.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 13 yds to the GASO 42 for a 1ST down Georgia Southern Penalty, (15 Yards) to the GASO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
15.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 6 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+13
14.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 13 yds to the GASO 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
14.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the GASO 21Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+18
12.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 18 yds to the GASO 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.7%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)Similar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
4.3%
PENALTY GASO Personal Foul (Meyers,Justin) 15 yards from USM35 to USM50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:003% → 9%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
2.8%
OJ Arnold run for 14 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
2.8%
OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the GASO 43Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
2.9%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Ahmon GreenSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
2.9%
JC French IV run for 8 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
2.9%
JC French IV sacked by Michael Montgomery for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 11
50
+7
2.7%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+4
2.7%
OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
9.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 5:5088% → 95%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
12.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
11.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 41Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
10.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q4 14:36
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
10.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
50
0
8.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Tychaun ChapmanSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
50
+17
8.8%
Matt Jones run for 17 yds to the GASO 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
8.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
8.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+8
7.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the GASO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
6.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 2 yds to the GASO 25Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 12
OPP 25
-3
6.9%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 28Similar
Q4 10:54
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+4
6.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 4 yds to the GASO 24Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
5.5%
Creighton Wilbanks 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23INT
8 plays · 48 yds · 1:473% → 3%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.9%
OJ Arnold run for 9 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
3.4%
JC French IV run for 5 yds to the GASO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
2.9%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 17 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
3.0%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+17
3.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Ahmon Green for 17 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
3.2%
JC French IV pass intercepted Josh Moten return for 3 yds to the USM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:2596% → 96%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
4.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 11 yds to the USM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
4.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+14
3.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 14 yds Micah Davis fumbled, recovered by USM Brandon TysonSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+14
3.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 14 yds Micah Davis fumbled, recovered by USM Brandon TysonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:323% → 10%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
2.6%
JC French IV run for 3 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
2.5%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Dalen CobbSimilar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+26
10.0%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 26 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:4090% → 87%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the USM 25Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.2%
Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the USM 26Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
13.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 1 yd to the USM 27Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
13.1%
Reed Harradine punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 27TD
16 plays · 61 yds · 3:096% → 28%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
6.4%
David Mbadinga run for 3 yds to the GASO 42Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
4.6%
JC French IV pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 4 yds to the GASO 46Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+10
4.3%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 10 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
4.7%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-5
4.6%
PENALTY GASO Delay Of Game (French IV,JC) 5 yards from USM44 to USM49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
4.9%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Marcus Sanders Jr.Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
4.7%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 15
OPP 49
+21
5.4%
JC French IV pass complete to Camden Brown for 21 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
8.0%
JC French IV sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 38Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+4
3.9%
David Mbadinga run for 4 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+21
3.8%
JC French IV pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 21 yds to the USM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
4.9%
JC French IV pass incomplete to Dalen CobbSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
4.9%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun French IV,JC pass incomplete short right to Brown,Camden thrown to USM00 PENALTY USM Pass Interference (Moten,Josh) 11 yard from USM13 to USM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.8%
JC French IV run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1088% → 95%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
12.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the GASO 31Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
12.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the GASO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
7.7%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 26Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-1
6.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-1
5.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:14
JC French IV run for 2 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
+22.9
TD · Q2 5:06
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 30 yds for a TD (Creighton Wilbanks KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q3 7:03
JC French IV run for 5 yds for a TD (Tripp Bryant KICK)
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com