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USA

South Alabama 24 at Troy 31

TROY
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:18 · Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 53 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 20 yds to the USA 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTimeout advantage
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 173Home team on offense−2.6Pregame prior+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score differential−4.2Garbage-time factor−0.4Timeout advantage−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:02: Bishop Davenport run for 56 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK) — USA win probability +22.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:50: Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +23.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 6:47: Scott Taylor Renfroe 28 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +16.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:54: Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 15 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK) — USA win probability +37.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: T.Meadows rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — TROY win probability +25.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:00USA 4th & 11 at USA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:18TROY 4th & 4 at USA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    46.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:38TROY 4th & 6 at USA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:55USA 4th & 3 at USA 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07TROY 4th & 1 at USA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.5%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29TROY 4th & 9 at USA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    49.1%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:42USA 4th & 2 at USA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:10TROY 4th & 12 at USA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:39USA 4th & 15 at USA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:07USA 4th & 7 at TROY 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:03TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 27, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:50USA 4th & 5 at TROY 23, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−11.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:17TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.6%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:47TROY 4th & 4 at USA 10, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−1.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−18.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:59USA 4th & 6 at TROY 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−2.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:17TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:18USA 4th & 13 at USA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−22.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:12TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:05USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:32TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:02USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:50TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:54USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:5755% → 54%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Brendan JenkinsSimilar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
45.5%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 10 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
45.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 2 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+3
45.7%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-2
45.9%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Jamel Fils-Aime for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 35Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+5
46.3%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 52 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 5 yds to the TROY 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 4:4346% → 51%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
46.1%
Tae Meadows run for 10 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
46.3%
Tae Meadows run for 8 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
46.3%
Tae Meadows run for 8 yds to the TROY 36Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
46.6%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
46.6%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
46.8%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 7 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
46.8%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 7 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
47.1%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
47.1%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
47.3%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 48Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
47.3%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 48Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
47.3%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+3
47.3%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+4
47.4%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+7
47.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 7 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
51.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 34 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0750% → 54%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.2%
Keenan Phillips run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
50.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
50.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
49.9%
Bishop Davenport run for 2 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
49.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
49.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
49.4%
PJ Martin run for 7 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+11
49.2%
PJ Martin run for 11 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
45.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Micah Woods for 33 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:2748% → 50%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
47.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 8 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
48.6%
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
48.0%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
48.7%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+20
48.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 20 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
50.6%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
50.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the USA 34Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
49.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass intercepted, touchback. Nehemiah Chandler return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:4352% → 51%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
47.8%
PENALTY USA False Start (Davis,Jordan) 5 yards from USA20 to USA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
47.9%
PENALTY USA False Start 5 yards from USA15 to USA10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+7
48.0%
Keenan Phillips run for 7 yds to the USA 17Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+6
48.2%
Keenan Phillips run for 6 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
48.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 4 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+8
49.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 55 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 8 yds to the TROY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:2650% → 50%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
49.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 16 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
51.1%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
51.3%
Jordan Lovett run for 7 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
51.4%
Tae Meadows run for no gain to the USA 49Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
50.5%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
52.6%
Tray Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the USA 49Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+7
51.5%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 7 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+3
52.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
49.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4252% → 50%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
47.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 7Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+4
48.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 4 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 2
OWN 11
0
48.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the USA 11Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 2
OWN 11
+32
49.6%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 49 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 32 yds to the USA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2755% → 51%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
54.8%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-6
55.0%
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 30Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
52.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
51.0%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2153% → 50%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
47.1%
Micah Woods run for no gain to the USA 30Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
47.8%
Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds to the USA 35Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-10
47.3%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Jaquez White for a loss of 10 yards to the USA 25Similar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
49.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:0053% → 69%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
52.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
53.3%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+22
50.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 22 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
53.6%
(01:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Kilcrease,Tucker pass incomplete short left thrown to USA30 PENALTY USA Roughing The Passer (Dozier,Caleb) 15 yards from USA40 to USA25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
68.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Rara Thomas for 25 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2635% → 37%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
63.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
64.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
62.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
64.8%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 13 yds to the TROY 35 Tucker Kilcrease fumbled, recovered by USA Christopher Wallace Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2941% → 44%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
59.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+5
59.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the TROY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
59.2%
Bishop Davenport run for no gain to the TROY 25Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
59.9%
Keenan Phillips run for 1 yd to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+2
62.0%
Keenan Phillips run for 2 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
56.3%
Hamilton DiBoyan 40 yd FG GOOD Troy Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4758% → 61%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
58.2%
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the TROY 21Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
58.2%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
61.1%
Tae Meadows run for no gain to the TROY 27Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
60.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 58 yds , Devin Voisin returns for no gain to the USA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:5440% → 62%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
60.2%
Keenan Phillips run for 3 yds to the USA 17Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-5
60.5%
PENALTY USA False Start (Davis,Jordan) 5 yards from USA17 to USA12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+6
60.9%
Keenan Phillips run for 6 yds to the USA 18Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+7
62.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 7 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.6%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Keenan PhillipsSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
61.0%
Keenan Phillips run for 19 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
38.4%
Bishop Davenport run for 56 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0539% → 68%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.0%
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
39.2%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 6 yds to the TROY 34Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
40.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 3 yds to the TROY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+48
39.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 48 yds to the USA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
44.6%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
44.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
68.0%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 4:5340% → 40%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
57.2%
PENALTY USA False Start (Hale,Asher) 5 yards from USA40 to USA35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
60.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 36Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+11
61.9%
Bishop Davenport run for 11 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
58.3%
Bishop Davenport run for 4 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
56.9%
PENALTY TROY Offside (Fils-Aime,Jamel) 5 yards from TROY49 to TROY44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
56.5%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
56.1%
PJ Martin run for 12 yds to the TROY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
54.0%
PJ Martin run for 1 yd to the TROY 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-10
54.7%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 14
OPP 32
+9
57.7%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the TROY 23Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
56.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the TROY 23Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 5
OPP 23
0
59.8%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Anthony EagerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:5864% → 91%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
64.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Jordan LovettSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
63.7%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TROY 23Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+9
62.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 9 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+1
62.2%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
65.0%
Jordan Lovett run for 21 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
69.5%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the USA 46Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
69.3%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 4 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+26
68.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 26 yds to the USA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
70.5%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the USA 15Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+1
71.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 1 yd to the USA 14Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-5
72.7%
(07:55) PENALTY TROY False Start (Thomas,RaRa) 5 yards from USA14 to USA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+9
73.9%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 9 yds to the USA 10Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
90.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4516% → 59%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.0%
Bishop Davenport run for 5 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
83.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 4 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
84.5%
Keenan Phillips run for 4 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
83.6%
Bishop Davenport run for 9 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+6
81.2%
Keenan Phillips run for 6 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
82.3%
Bishop Davenport sacked by DJ Jackson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 13
50
+6
85.3%
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+1
84.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 1 yd to the TROY 43Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+28
86.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 28 yds to the TROY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
40.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 15 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:3055% → 53%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 10 yds to the TROY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
55.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for no gain to the TROY 35Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+4
51.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Ethan Conner for 4 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
52.8%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5145% → 40%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-10
55.1%
South Alabama Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bishop Davenport) to the USA 8Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 20
OWN 8
+3
56.2%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 11Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+4
58.3%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the USA 15Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 13
OWN 15
+20
60.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 53 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 20 yds to the USA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1262% → 53%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
61.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
61.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-5
57.6%
PENALTY TROY Delay Of Game 5 yards from USA48 to TROY47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+12
53.4%
Tae Meadows run for 12 yds to the USA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 93%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
67.5%
T.Kilcrease rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by B.Myrick at USA 20.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+17
67.5%
T.Meadows rushed for 17 yards. Tackled by T.Goodwill; J.Henderson at USA 3.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.3%
T.Meadows rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0014% → 10%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
85.6%
K.Bullock rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by L.Medina; J.Stringer at TROY 20.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
85.6%
K.Bullock rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Stringer; D.Lafayette at TROY 17.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
86.6%
K.Bullock rushed for 3 yards. Tackled by D.Daniel-Sisavanh; T.Robbins at TROY 14.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
85.6%
B.Davenport rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by L.Hodge at TROY 16.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+5
87.0%
K.Bullock rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by K.Curry; L.Hodge at TROY 11.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+2
87.6%
B.Davenport rushed for 2 yards. Tackled by D.Lafayette; D.Smith at TROY 9.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 9
0
90.1%
B.Davenport steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Henderson.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:54
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 15 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
-37.2
TD · OT 0:00
T.Meadows rushed for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+25.8
TD · Q3 3:50
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+23.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com