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USA

South Alabama 22 at North Texas 36

UNT
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:38 · Makenzie McGill II run for 8 yds to the USA 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+27.0Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:19: Caleb Hawkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +4.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:25: Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 68 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK) — UNT win probability +8.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:00: Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 1 yd for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK) — USA win probability +10.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:08: D. Mestemaker run for 4 yds for a TD — UNT win probability +9.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:11: Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion) — USA win probability +22.2 pts (now 29%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 10:40USA 4th & 2 at UNT 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:38UNT 4th & 1 at USA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42USA 4th & 2 at USA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:30UNT 4th & 7 at USA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:17USA 4th & 5 at USA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00UNT 4th & 2 at USA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:21UNT 4th & 26 at UNT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:07USA 4th & 5 at USA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:37UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:36USA 4th & 21 at UNT 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.8%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:00USA 4th & 7 at USA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:00USA 4th & 7 at USA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:00USA 4th & 7 at USA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:02USA 4th & 1 at UNT 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−1.8
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−7.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:18USA 4th & 15 at USA 46, down 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:12USA 4th & 5 at UNT 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:15UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:32USA 4th & 10 at USA 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:32USA 4th & 10 at USA 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:40USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:04UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:19UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:25UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:00USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:08UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:11USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.7%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:59UNT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1520% → 22%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
80.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 16 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
80.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
80.0%
Bishop Davenport run for 10 yds to the UNT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
79.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the UNT 43Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+36
79.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 36 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.4%
Bishop Davenport run for no gain to the UNT 7Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
79.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the UNT 5Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
79.0%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the UNT 2Similar
Q1 10:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.8%
Bishop Davenport run for 2 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2778% → 79%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 9 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-8
78.0%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass complete short right to Coleman,Miles caught at UNT28, for 13 yards to the UNT47 (Myrick,Blayne) PENALTY UNT Holding (Evans,Simeon) 8 yards from UNT34 to UNT26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
77.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+36
77.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Wyatt Young for 36 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
77.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 2 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
77.4%
Drew Mestemaker run for 1 yd to the USA 32Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
76.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 6 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+8
76.5%
Makenzie McGill II run for 8 yds to the USA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
78.8%
Miles Coleman run for 18 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1222% → 22%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for no gain to the USA 25Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.8%
PJ Martin run for 8 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
77.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy ScottSimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+14
77.7%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 53 yds , Miles Coleman returns for 14 yds to the UNT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:0678% → 77%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
77.7%
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+19
77.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 19 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
78.2%
Caleb Hawkins run for 3 yds to the USA 43Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
78.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Caleb HawkinsSimilar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+15
77.9%
(04:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass incomplete deep left to Lewis,Terrence thrown to USA20 QB hurried by Thomas,Tyler PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Moss Jr.,RJ) 15 yards from USA43 to USA28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
78.3%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Hawkins,Caleb rush left for 7 yards gain to the USA21 (Dozier,Caleb; Blaylock,Cole) PENALTY UNT Holding (Nelson,Braydon) 10 yards from USA28 to USA38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+7
77.7%
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+6
77.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Cameron Dorner for 6 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 25
0
77.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron DornerSimilar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
77.1%
Kali Nguma 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0724% → 24%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.2%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
75.6%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 30Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
75.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Rod GibbsSimilar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
76.5%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 2:5077% → 75%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
77.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the UNT 48Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
77.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Wyatt YoungSimilar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+3
76.9%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 3 yds to the USA 49Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+11
76.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Landon Sides for 11 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-4
77.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-12
76.2%
Drew Mestemaker sacked by Tyler Thomas for a loss of 12 yards to the UNT 46Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 26
OWN 46
0
74.9%
Sawyer Evans punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Devin Voisin at the USA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:4425% → 28%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
74.9%
Keenan Phillips run for 4 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 12
-4
74.6%
Keenan Phillips run for a loss of 4 yards to the USA 8Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+16
75.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 16 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
74.0%
Keenan Phillips run for 2 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
73.8%
Keenan Phillips run for 3 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+7
73.7%
Bishop Davenport run for 7 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
72.4%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the USA 34Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+5
73.0%
PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-14
72.1%
Bishop Davenport pass intercepted Ethan Wesloski return for 14 yds to the USA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:0276% → 81%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 12
OPP 35
+18
76.3%
Caleb Hawkins run for 18 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
76.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 7 yds to the USA 10Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
75.9%
Caleb Hawkins run for 4 yds to the USA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.8%
Caleb Hawkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0521% → 20%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
79.4%
Keenan Phillips run for 3 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
79.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 40Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
79.2%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Kentrel BullockSimilar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
79.9%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Miles Coleman at the UNT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2079% → 78%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.1%
Drew Mestemaker run for no gain to the UNT 24Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
79.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd to the UNT 25Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
77.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Devin Voisin at the USA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 20 yds · 2:5621% → 18%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
79.3%
PJ Martin run for 1 yd to the USA 35Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+3
79.3%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+12
79.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
50
+15
77.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 15 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
76.5%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass complete short right to Phillips,Keenan caught at UNT29, for 9 yards to the UNT26 (Jones II,Will) PENALTY USA Holding (Jerido,Kenton) 10 yards from UNT35 to UNT45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 20
OPP 45
-10
78.2%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass complete short left to Eager,Anthony caught at UNT44, for 13 yards to the UNT32 (Day,Ethan) PENALTY USA Holding (Woods,Micah) 10 yards from UNT45 to USA45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 30
OWN 45
+2
79.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 2 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 28
OWN 47
0
80.2%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Christopher Wallace Jr.) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 28
OWN 47
+7
80.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 7 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 21
OPP 46
0
82.5%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Miles Coleman at the UNT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:3084% → 81%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
84.0%
Caleb Hawkins run for 6 yds to the UNT 19Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+3
83.5%
Caleb Hawkins run for 3 yds to the UNT 22Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+11
83.1%
Caleb Hawkins run for 11 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
84.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
83.8%
Caleb Hawkins run for 3 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+4
84.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
81.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:2081% → 81%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
80.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Miles ColemanSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
80.3%
Caleb Hawkins run for 12 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
81.8%
Caleb Hawkins run for 2 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
81.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 11 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
82.0%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the USA 37Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
81.8%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+11
81.2%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Dalton Carnes for 11 yds Dalton Carnes fumbled, recovered by USA Dalton HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:3021% → 20%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
79.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 10 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
78.6%
Bishop Davenport run for 6 yds to the USA 42Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
77.5%
Jared Hollins pass complete to Anthony Eager for 3 yds to the USA 39Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
78.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Anthony EagerSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
80.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
80.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
80.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:2981% → 89%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Cameron DornerSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-4
80.6%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Mestemaker,Drew pass complete short middle to Nelson,Braydon caught at UNT29, for 0 yards to the UNT36 (Darby,Damyrion) PENALTY UNT Illegal Touch-Pass (Nelson,Braydon) 4 yards from UNT36 to UNT32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+68
88.7%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 68 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1312% → 22%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 9 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
87.3%
Bishop Davenport sacked by Zhaiylen Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 33Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+34
87.9%
Bishop Davenport run for 34 yds to the UNT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
86.4%
Keenan Phillips run for 6 yds to the UNT 27Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+5
86.1%
Keenan Phillips run for 20 yds to the UNT 7 for a 1ST down South Alabama Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Chrystyile Caldwell) to the UNT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
86.1%
Bishop Davenport run for 7 yds to the UNT 15Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-1
86.2%
Bishop Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 16Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+3
87.0%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+4
87.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to PJ Martin for 4 yds to the UNT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
86.4%
PJ Martin run for 8 yds to the UNT 1Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.4%
PJ Martin run for no gain to the UNT 1Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 1 yd for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
78.5%
(06:00) DiBoyan,Hamilton onside kickoff 14 yards to the USA49 PENALTY USA Offside 5 yards from USA35 to USA30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:3185% → 94%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
84.6%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Miles Coleman for 15 yds to the USA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
84.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
84.8%
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the USA 23Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
83.9%
Makenzie McGill II run for 1 yd to the USA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-9
84.9%
Drew Mestemaker run for a loss of 9 yards to the USA 31 Drew Mestemaker fumbled, recovered by UNT Drew MestemakerSimilar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 19
OPP 31
+27
85.1%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Tre Williams III for 27 yds to the USA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.0%
D. Mestemaker run for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18DOWNS
18 plays · 41 yds · 5:479% → 8%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 8 yds to the USA 33Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
90.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 34Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
90.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
91.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 42Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
91.2%
Keenan Phillips run for 5 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+4
91.3%
Bishop Davenport run for 4 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.2%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Keenan PhillipsSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-9
91.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 1 yd to the USA 48 South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USA 42Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 19
OWN 42
-14
92.3%
South Alabama Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Bishop Davenport) to the USA 28Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 33
OWN 28
+18
92.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 18 yds to the USA 46Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 15
OWN 46
+15
92.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 15 yds to the UNT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
91.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy ScottSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
91.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
91.5%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremy ScottSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
92.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Anthony EagerSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
92.1%
South Alabama Penalty, (Yards) to the UNT 34Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
92.1%
South Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (Christopher Wallace Jr.) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5195% → 95%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.3%
Caleb Hawkins run for 5 yds to the UNT 39Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
95.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
95.5%
Drew Mestemaker pass incomplete to Landon SidesSimilar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
95.0%
Sawyer Evans punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 3:507% → 29%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
93.4%
Bishop Davenport run for 3 yds to the USA 16Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+19
93.3%
PJ Martin run for 19 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
93.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 18 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+35
93.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to PJ Martin for 35 yds to the UNT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
92.1%
PJ Martin run for 9 yds to the UNT 21Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
91.8%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Micah Woods for 3 yds to the UNT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
92.4%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
92.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to PJ Martin for 3 yds to the UNT 11Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
93.3%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Brec LongSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+9
93.7%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass incomplete short middle to Voisin,Devin thrown to UNT00 QB hurried by Hammonds,Quinton PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Fisher,David) 9 yards from UNT11 to UNT02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0688% → 98%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.0%
Drew Mestemaker pass complete to Caleb Hawkins for 10 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
88.3%
Caleb Hawkins run for 19 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
90.6%
Makenzie McGill II run for 5 yds to the USA 41Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
91.3%
Makenzie McGill II run for 8 yds to the USA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
91.6%
Makenzie McGill II run for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+12
93.5%
Drew Mestemaker run for 12 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
94.3%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Hawkins,Caleb rush left for 8 yards gain to the USA09 (Myrick,Blayne) PENALTY UNT Holding (Yanta II,Tay) 10 yards from USA17 to USA27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+27
98.2%
Caleb Hawkins run for 27 yds for a TD (Wyatt Young pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:164% → 4%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Keenan PhillipsSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
95.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Rod GibbsSimilar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
96.0%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Jeremiah Jones-ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Keenan PhillipsSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
96.1%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Keenan PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
99.1%
D. Mestemaker takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 11
OPP 25
-3
99.1%
D. Mestemaker takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
-2
99.0%
D. Mestemaker takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:11
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion)
-22.2
TD · Q3 6:00
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Rod Gibbs for 1 yd for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q3 2:08
D. Mestemaker run for 4 yds for a TD
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com