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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:26 · Nathan Totten punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 11:11: Paul Hutson III 46 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick) — MRSH win probability +14.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:16: Lunch Winfield 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick) — UL win probability +20.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:27: Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick) — UL win probability +41.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:01: Demarcus Lacey 27 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick) — MRSH win probability +33.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:16: Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick) — UL win probability +50.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 13:38UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it46.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.1%average punt
- Q1 8:27UL 4th & 3 at UL 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snapGo for it47.1%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%average punt
- Q1 2:13MRSH 4th & 14 at UL 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it51.3%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.9%average punt
- Q1 1:00UL 4th & 11 at UL 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snapGo for it47.7%−0.525% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.2%average punt
- Q2 5:26MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snapGo for it47.1%−2.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.1%average punt
- Q3 6:55MRSH 4th & 3 at UL 13, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.6%50% to convertField goalTheir call82.0%−0.685% to makePunt74.4%−8.3average punt
- Q3 1:32UL 4th & 10 at MRSH 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snapGo for it13.9%−1.427% to convertField goalTheir call15.3%79% to makePunt7.5%−7.8average punt
- Q4 13:19MRSH 4th & 6 at UL 35, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snapGo for it89.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call88.8%−0.745% to makePunt87.8%−1.6average punt
- Q4 7:01MRSH 4th & 18 at MRSH 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snapGo for it76.1%−4.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q2 10:51MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.3%97% to makeGo for two57.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:41UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.9%97% to makeGo for two47.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:43UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.5%97% to makeGo for two61.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:23MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.7%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:20MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.9%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:11MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.5%97% to makeGo for two73.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:16UL Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.9%97% to makeGo for two20.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 4:27UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.9%97% to makeGo for two47.5%−1.445% to convert
- Q4 1:01MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%−0.397% to makeGo for two86.2%45% to convert
- Q4 0:16UL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.2%97% to makeGo for two41.5%−7.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1650% → 50%
Q1 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
49.8%
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 6 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2FG9 plays · 29 yds · 6:3750% → 49%
Q1 11:48
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
50.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 11 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+10
49.9%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short left to Allen,Michael thrown to UL 31 PENALTY MAR Holding (Montgomery,Tariq) 10 yards from UL 36 to UL 46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+11
50.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 11 yds to the UL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4150% → 51%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FG5 plays · 16 yds · 6:0350% → 53%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT12 plays · 30 yds · 2:1349% → 49%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
50.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 13 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
49.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ben Turner for 3 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
49.7%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Lacey,Demarcus rush left for 7 yards gain to the UL 38 (Lawson,Jordan; Dugger,Jaden) PENALTY MAR Holding (Williams-Thomas,Justin) 10 yards from UL 45 to MAR45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+1
50.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 1 yd to the MRSH 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+5
51.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 5 yds to the UL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1352% → 51%
MRSHDrive 7TD11 plays · 56 yds · 5:0950% → 58%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+12
50.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 12 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
49.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Courtline Flowers for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 47Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+15
50.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 15 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+9
49.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 9 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5545% → 57%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
44.7%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Landon Strother for 10 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
44.9%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Dale Martin for 11 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
46.0%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Bill Davis for 16 yds to the MRSH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0549% → 47%
ULDrive 10TD12 plays · 64 yds · 3:3456% → 70%
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
56.4%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Rahji Dennis for 16 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
58.1%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Landon Strother for 5 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+15
58.9%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Beale,Daniel pass incomplete short left to Strother,Landon thrown to MAR21 PENALTY MAR Roughing The Passer (Ward,Braydin) 15 yards from MAR33 to MAR18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD11 plays · 75 yds · 1:1133% → 55%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 7 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
65.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 5 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
65.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 10 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
64.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 14 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+32
46.8%
Demarcus Lacey 32 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
44.8%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Clary,Isaac) 5 yards from UL 03 to UL 08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD3 plays · 79 yds · 0:2649% → 64%
ULDrive 14INT TD7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5639% → 27%
Q3 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-9
38.2%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Brock Chappell for 6 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Roughing The Passer (-15 Yards) to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3325% → 24%
MRSHDrive 16FG8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2679% → 84%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
19.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+8
18.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 8 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
17.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 4 yds to the UL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG12 plays · 57 yds · 5:1718% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0486% → 89%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
14.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5115% → 34%
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
14.4%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass incomplete short right to Robertson,Charles thrown to MAR00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Myers,Marvae) 12 yards from MAR14 to MAR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 2:5779% → 79%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
18.6%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short middle to Tamarez,De'Andre thrown to UL 34 PENALTY MAR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Richter,Christian) 5 yards from MAR48 to MAR43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-8
18.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 40Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
20.7%
Nathan Totten punt for 41 yds , Landon Strother returns for no gain to the UL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3024% → 64%
Q4 5:53
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+16
20.8%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Charles Robertson for 16 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-15
22.5%
Louisiana Penalty, Targeting (-15 Yards) to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
63.5%
Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:0950% → 96%
ULDrive 23TD11 plays · 75 yds · 0:4013% → 67%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
13.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trey Miller for 10 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
13.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Zylan Perry for 3 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
13.0%
PENALTY MAR Offside (Rivera-Harvey,Jalil) 5 yards from UL 44 to UL 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
14.2%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Landon Strother for 12 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
14.9%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Zylan Perry for 15 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24END OF GAME5 plays · 52 yds · 0:1151% → 55%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
44.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 37 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+55.3
TD · Q4 0:16
Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
+50.8
TD · Q4 4:27
Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
+41