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MRSH

Marshall 51 at Louisiana 54

UL
2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:13 · Nathan Totten punt for 49 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:11: Paul Hutson III 46 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick) — MRSH win probability +14.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:16: Lunch Winfield 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick) — UL win probability +20.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:27: Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick) — UL win probability +41.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:01: Demarcus Lacey 27 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick) — MRSH win probability +33.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:16: Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick) — UL win probability +50.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:38UL 4th & 6 at UL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27UL 4th & 3 at UL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:13MRSH 4th & 14 at UL 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:00UL 4th & 11 at UL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:26MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:55MRSH 4th & 3 at UL 13, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−8.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:32UL 4th & 10 at MRSH 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−7.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:19MRSH 4th & 6 at UL 35, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:01MRSH 4th & 18 at MRSH 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−4.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 10:51MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:41UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:43UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:20MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:11MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:16UL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:27UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−1.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:01MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:16UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−7.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1650% → 50%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.6%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
49.7%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the UL 29Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
49.8%
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Charles RobertsonSimilar
Q1 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
49.8%
Nathan Torney punt for 41 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 6 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 6:3750% → 49%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
49.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 9 yds to the MRSH 45Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+10
49.8%
Michael Allen run for 10 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
49.8%
Demarcus Lacey run for 2 yds to the UL 43Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-2
49.8%
Michael Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 45Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
50.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 11 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
49.8%
Michael Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the UL 36Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+10
49.9%
(11:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short left to Allen,Michael thrown to UL 31 PENALTY MAR Holding (Montgomery,Tariq) 10 yards from UL 36 to UL 46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+11
50.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 11 yds to the UL 35Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+26
50.9%
Tony Sterner 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4150% → 51%
Q1 8:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+43
50.4%
Nathan Torney punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.0%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Trey Miller for 8 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
51.5%
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
51.0%
Bill Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 6:0350% → 53%
Q1 9:52
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+53
50.3%
Lorcan Quinn 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
52.2%
Bill Davis run for 12 yds to the MRSH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
52.2%
Bill Davis run for 4 yds to the MRSH 9Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
53.0%
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Rahji DennisSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
52.6%
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 2:1349% → 49%
Q1 2:13
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
51.5%
Nathan Totten punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
51.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the MRSH 27Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
50.8%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MRSH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
50.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 13 yds to the MRSH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
50.0%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the MRSH 47Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
49.9%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 5 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
49.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Ben Turner for 3 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Demarcus LaceySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
49.7%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Lacey,Demarcus rush left for 7 yards gain to the UL 38 (Lawson,Jordan; Dugger,Jaden) PENALTY MAR Holding (Williams-Thomas,Justin) 10 yards from UL 45 to MAR45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+1
50.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 1 yd to the MRSH 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+5
51.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 5 yds to the UL 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1352% → 51%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
51.9%
Zylan Perry run for 4 yds to the UL 24Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
52.0%
Daniel Beale sacked by Braydin Ward for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 19Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
51.1%
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to Jaydon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
50.9%
Nathan Torney punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Lacey at the MRSH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:0950% → 58%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
50.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Adrian NortonSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
50.3%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+12
50.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 12 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
49.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Courtline Flowers for a loss of 5 yards to the UL 47Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+15
50.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 15 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
49.2%
Demarcus Lacey run for 3 yds to the UL 29Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+9
49.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 9 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
49.0%
Michael Allen run for no gain to the UL 20Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
49.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the UL 16Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+7
49.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 7 yds to the UL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
42.1%
Michael Allen 9 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5545% → 57%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
44.7%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Landon Strother for 10 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
44.9%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Dale Martin for 11 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
45.6%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
46.0%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Bill Davis for 16 yds to the MRSH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
47.1%
Bill Davis run for 10 yds to the MRSH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
46.1%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the MRSH 25Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
46.0%
Daniel Beale run for 6 yds to the MRSH 19Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
57.1%
Zylan Perry 19 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0549% → 47%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.2%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the MRSH 26Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
51.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 3 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
51.7%
Marshall Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Carlos Del Rio-Wilson) to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
53.3%
Nathan Totten punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:3456% → 70%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
55.7%
Steven Blanco run for 5 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
57.0%
Steven Blanco run for 5 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
57.3%
Daniel Beale pass incomplete to KeDarius WadeSimilar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+16
56.4%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Rahji Dennis for 16 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
58.1%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Landon Strother for 5 yds to the MRSH 33Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+15
58.9%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Beale,Daniel pass incomplete short left to Strother,Landon thrown to MAR21 PENALTY MAR Roughing The Passer (Ward,Braydin) 15 yards from MAR33 to MAR18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
58.9%
Bill Davis run for 1 yd to the MRSH 17Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+8
58.1%
Bill Davis run for 8 yds to the MRSH 9Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
56.8%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the MRSH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
69.5%
Lunch Winfield 6 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:1133% → 55%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 7 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
65.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 5 yds to the MRSH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
66.7%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
65.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 10 yds to the UL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
64.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 14 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
62.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
61.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to De'Andre TamarezSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+32
46.8%
Demarcus Lacey 32 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+5
44.8%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Clary,Isaac) 5 yards from UL 03 to UL 08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
54.0%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:2649% → 64%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
50.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 11 yds to the MRSH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
36.2%
Michael Allen 68 Yd Run (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14INT TD
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:5639% → 27%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.0%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
39.2%
Daniel Beale run for 4 yds to the UL 32Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-9
38.2%
Daniel Beale pass complete to Brock Chappell for 6 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Roughing The Passer (-15 Yards) to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
41.8%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the MRSH 46Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-1
41.5%
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 47Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-46
26.6%
Paul Hutson III 46 Yd Interception Return (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3325% → 24%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the UL 25Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.4%
Daniel Beale pass intercepted Boogie Trotter return for no gain to the UL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2679% → 84%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
21.1%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+6
19.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
19.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+8
18.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 8 yds to the UL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
18.5%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the UL 18Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
17.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 4 yds to the UL 14Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+1
17.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 1 yd to the UL 13Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
16.5%
Lorcan Quinn 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:1718% → 18%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.9%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the UL 27Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+30
17.4%
Lunch Winfield run for 30 yds to the MRSH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
19.1%
Zylan Perry run for 5 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+2
18.9%
Bill Davis run for 2 yds to the MRSH 36Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+8
18.4%
Lunch Winfield run for 8 yds to the MRSH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
18.7%
Zylan Perry run for 9 yds to the MRSH 19Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+1
18.3%
Lunch Winfield run for 1 yd to the MRSH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
18.0%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Brock ChappellSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
17.7%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the MRSH 18Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
16.7%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Brock ChappellSimilar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
17.9%
Tony Sterner 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0486% → 89%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
14.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
50
+9
12.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 9 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
11.8%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
12.0%
Antwan Roberts run for 6 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
10.1%
Antwan Roberts run for 1 yd to the UL 32Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-3
10.2%
Michael Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the UL 35Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+52
11.3%
Lorcan Quinn 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5115% → 34%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+38
14.8%
Lunch Winfield run for 38 yds to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
17.4%
Bill Davis run for no gain to the MRSH 27Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
16.7%
Bill Davis run for 3 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+10
16.0%
Lunch Winfield run for 10 yds to the MRSH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
14.4%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Dale MartinSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
14.4%
(10:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Winfield,Lunch pass incomplete short right to Robertson,Charles thrown to MAR00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Myers,Marvae) 12 yards from MAR14 to MAR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.4%
Lunch Winfield 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:5779% → 79%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
21.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 9 yds to the MRSH 43Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
19.2%
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the MRSH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
18.6%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Del Rio-Wilson,Carlos pass incomplete short middle to Tamarez,De'Andre thrown to UL 34 PENALTY MAR Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Richter,Christian) 5 yards from MAR48 to MAR43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+3
19.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the MRSH 46Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+2
18.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 2 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-8
18.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MRSH 40Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
20.7%
Nathan Totten punt for 41 yds , Landon Strother returns for no gain to the UL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3024% → 64%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
23.9%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Landon StrotherSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-4
23.3%
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the UL 15Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+16
20.8%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Charles Robertson for 16 yds to the UL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
23.0%
Lunch Winfield run for 3 yds to the UL 34Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-15
22.5%
Louisiana Penalty, Targeting (-15 Yards) to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
63.5%
Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:0950% → 96%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
50.1%
Michael Allen run for 16 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
46.1%
Demarcus Lacey run for 6 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+7
44.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Michael Allen for 7 yds to the UL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
44.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 6 yds to the UL 36Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+8
40.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 8 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
37.7%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the UL 27Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
4.5%
Demarcus Lacey 27 Yd pass from Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (Lorcan Quinn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 0:4013% → 67%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
13.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Trey Miller for 10 yds to the UL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
13.3%
Lunch Winfield run for 6 yds to the UL 41Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
14.4%
Lunch Winfield pass incomplete to Trey MillerSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
13.3%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Zylan Perry for 3 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
13.0%
PENALTY MAR Offside (Rivera-Harvey,Jalil) 5 yards from UL 44 to UL 49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
14.2%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Landon Strother for 12 yds to the MRSH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
14.9%
Lunch Winfield pass complete to Zylan Perry for 15 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
67.4%
Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:1151% → 55%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the MRSH 29Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
47.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Toby PayneSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
50.1%
Michael Allen run for 11 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
44.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 37 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+55.3
TD · Q4 0:16
Dale Martin 24 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
+50.8
TD · Q4 4:27
Charles Robertson 45 Yd pass from Lunch Winfield (Tony Sterner Kick)
+41
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com