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TROY

Troy 21 at Buffalo 17

BUF
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:01 · Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the BUF 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Offense timeoutsDefense timeoutsHome team on offensePregame priorTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Offense timeouts−13.5Defense timeouts−13.1Home team on offense+5.9Pregame prior+9.3Time remaining+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:12: Al-Jay Henderson 22 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick) — BUF win probability +31.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:23: Tucker Kilcrease run for 6 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +22.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  3. TD · Q4 5:45: Rara Thomas 10 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick) — TROY win probability +24.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:00: Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST down — TROY win probability +33.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · Q4 0:45: Tae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick) — TROY win probability +37.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TROY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:00BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:43TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:44BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:35TROY 4th & 17 at TROY 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:46BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:17BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:15TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:00BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:16TROY 4th & 2 at BUF 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:01TROY 4th & 4 at BUF 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.2%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:56BUF 4th & 8 at TROY 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:59TROY 4th & 3 at BUF 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−1.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:34BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:21TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:21BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−5.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07TROY 4th & 11 at TROY 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:33BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:08BUF 4th & 1 at TROY 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.8%−17.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−17.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:31BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:12BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:23TROY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:45TROY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−1.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:45TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:0071% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 6 yds to the BUF 31Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
69.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 10 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
69.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 40Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+8
68.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
67.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 49Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
66.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0134% → 36%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
66.5%
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 14
-5
66.1%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Red Murdock for a loss of 5 yards to the TROY 9 Tucker Kilcrease fumbled, recovered by TROY Tae Meadows , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
64.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for no gain to the TROY 9Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
64.0%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:2564% → 62%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+39
63.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 39 yds to the TROY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
63.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 16 yds to the TROY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
63.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the TROY 16Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
63.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the TROY 11Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+8
62.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
61.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the TROY 1Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.1%
James McNeil Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4037% → 38%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
62.9%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-3
62.3%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Junior Poyser for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 35Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-4
62.1%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Kobe Stewart and Devin Morgan for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 31Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
61.8%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 49 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:4859% → 53%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
58.8%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUF 15Similar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
58.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Messiah Burch for 2 yds to the BUF 17Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
57.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+16
56.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 16 yds to the BUF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
56.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 5 yds to the BUF 38Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
55.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
53.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
52.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 3:5944% → 46%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
56.5%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the TROY 25Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
56.0%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+7
55.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 7 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
54.4%
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
54.6%
Jordan Lovett run for 8 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
53.4%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
53.3%
Troy Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tae Meadows) to the TROY 34Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 25
OWN 34
+7
54.1%
Tray Taylor run for 7 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+6
54.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 6 yds to the TROY 47Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 12
OWN 47
-5
53.7%
Troy Penalty, false start (Colton Walls) to the TROY 42Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
53.7%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3347% → 43%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
46.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 6Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+3
45.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
43.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+2
42.5%
Dylan Drennan punt for 46 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 2 yds to the TROY 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:3151% → 49%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
49.2%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+9
49.8%
Mojo Dortch run for 9 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
49.3%
Ui Ale pass complete to Rara Thomas for 14 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
48.5%
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds to the BUF 23Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+3
47.8%
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the BUF 20Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+2
50.2%
Ui Ale run for 2 yds to the BUF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
48.5%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the BUF 12Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
47.9%
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Rara Thomas, broken up by Keontez BradleySimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-15
48.8%
Ui Ale pass complete to DJ Epps for no gain to the BUF 12 Troy Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Roman Mothershed) to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 19
OPP 27
+9
50.9%
Ui Ale pass complete to Tray Taylor for 9 yds Ui Ale fumbled, recovered by BUF Red MurdockSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3741% → 39%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
41.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 17Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
40.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
39.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
38.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 44 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for no gain to the TROY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5351% → 51%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
48.9%
Jordan Lovett run for 5 yds to the TROY 43Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
47.4%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 8 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
46.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Jarris WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-2
47.3%
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the TROY 49Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 12
OWN 49
0
48.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Peyton HigginsSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+47
48.9%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 43 yds Buffalo Penalty, Offensive holding (Devin Morgan) to the BUF 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0943% → 32%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
42.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 3Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 11
OWN 3
-1
43.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the BUF 3 Buffalo Penalty, illegal formation (Yards) to the BUF 2Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 11
OWN 3
+3
42.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 6Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 12
OWN 2
+1
42.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the BUF 3Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 8
OWN 6
+9
31.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 48 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 9 yds to the BUF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:3767% → 64%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
33.1%
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
33.5%
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Tray Taylor, broken up by Marquis CooperSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+8
34.7%
Ui Ale run for 8 yds to the BUF 37Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+2
33.2%
Ui Ale run for 2 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
31.7%
Ui Ale sacked by Devin Morgan for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 39Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+11
34.1%
Ui Ale pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 11 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+6
34.4%
Ui Ale pass complete to Rara Thomas for 6 yds to the BUF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
33.0%
Ui Ale sacked by Miles Greer for a loss of 4 yards to the BUF 26Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-1
36.5%
Ui Ale sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:4348% → 49%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.8%
Tae Meadows run for no gain to the TROY 25Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.7%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 5 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
51.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray Taylor for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Solomon Brown) to the TROY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
49.5%
Tae Meadows run for 3 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
49.2%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 3
OPP 48
-1
50.5%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 49Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+2
51.5%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the BUF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:4143% → 72%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
43.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+8
42.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 8 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
42.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 42 Al-Jay Henderson fumbled, recovered by BUF Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+2
41.6%
Lamar Sperling run for 2 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+3
42.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 3 yds to the TROY 37Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+15
41.0%
Troy Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (David Daniel-Sisavanh) to the TROY 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
72.0%
Al-Jay Henderson 22 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15INT
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5230% → 38%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
69.7%
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 14Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+3
66.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 3 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+41
66.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Rara Thomas for 41 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
62.2%
Jordan Lovett run for 3 yds to the BUF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 6:2866% → 94%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
66.1%
Buffalo Penalty, false start (Tyler Doty) to the BUF 23Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 15
OWN 23
-2
65.8%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 21Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 17
OWN 21
+5
65.6%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Lamar Sperling for 5 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+14
64.5%
Lamar Sperling run for 14 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
73.2%
Lamar Sperling run for 13 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
75.0%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
74.7%
Messiah Burch run for 6 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
73.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
79.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the TROY 32Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+2
80.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+7
81.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the TROY 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.5%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-1
89.5%
Lamar Sperling run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 24Similar
Q3 0:23
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+3
89.3%
Lamar Sperling run for 3 yds to the TROY 21Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+39
94.2%
Jack Howes 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3310% → 30%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
89.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 14 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
89.5%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 9 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
89.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
89.9%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 1 yd to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
92.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
91.4%
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+14
92.2%
Ui Ale pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 14 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
92.5%
Ui Ale pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
92.7%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 4 yds to the BUF 26Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+13
93.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 13 yds to the BUF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
93.2%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 7 yds to the BUF 6Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
92.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara Thomas, broken up by Charles McCartherensSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
69.6%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 6 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4282% → 87%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
83.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
84.0%
Lamar Sperling run for 1 yd to the BUF 30Similar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
86.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3426% → 44%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
73.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara Thomas, broken up by Charles McCartherensSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
75.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 5 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+2
74.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+9
82.1%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
50
+11
80.0%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 11 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
80.3%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 29 yds to the BUF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
56.1%
Rara Thomas 10 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2460% → 54%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Marcus VelezSimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
57.3%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.4%
Dylan Drennan punt for 42 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 5 yds to the TROY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1439% → 29%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
60.7%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the TROY 40Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-3
65.7%
Tucker Kilcrease sacked by Dion Crawford for a loss of 3 yards to the TROY 37Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
69.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
70.6%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3465% → 71%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
64.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 13Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+3
69.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 16Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
72.6%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Chance MorrowSimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+2
70.9%
Dylan Drennan punt for 36 yds , Peyton Higgins returns for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:4834% → 99%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
50
+1
66.0%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the BUF 49Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
67.2%
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to Tray Taylor for 8 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
34.1%
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
35.5%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
33.6%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+7
36.2%
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the BUF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
35.8%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Mojo Dortch, broken up by Keontez BradleySimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
38.7%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the BUF 20Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
1.5%
Tae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:375% → 8%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
4.7%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Chance Morrow for 20 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
5.2%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Victor Snow for 17 yds to the TROY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
5.9%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Kaleno LevineSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
5.6%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+9
4.8%
Gunnar Gray pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 9 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
7.9%
Gunnar Gray pass incomplete to Chance Morrow, broken up by Joe LottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
1.5%
Tucker Kilcrease run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:45
Tae Meadows 20 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
-37.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:00
Tucker Kilcrease run for 2 yds to the BUF 39 for a 1ST down
-33.1
TD · Q3 9:12
Al-Jay Henderson 22 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)
+31
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com