Try the model
NICH

Nicholls 3 at Texas State 35

TXST
2025 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2025 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:34 · Pharrell Harewood punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+30.8Home team on offense+24.2Score differential+7.6Blowout margin+9.6Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:52: Gabriel Showalter 32 yd FG GOOD — NICH win probability +0.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:17: Brad Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK) — TXST win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:33: Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK) — TXST win probability +1.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:17: Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK) — TXST win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:16: Timeout Nicholls, clock 00:16 — TXST win probability +2.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 0 of 2NICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 1:52NICH 4th & 6 at TXST 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:07NICH 4th & 4 at NICH 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:39NICH 4th & 7 at NICH 38, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  4. Q3 12:34NICH 4th & 11 at NICH 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:09TXST 4th & 10 at NICH 39, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:08NICH 4th & 2 at NICH 10, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:40NICH 4th & 1 at NICH 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:18NICH 4th & 8 at TXST 32, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:10TXST 4th & 5 at midfield, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:43NICH 4th & 6 at midfield, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:19NICH 4th & 3 at TXST 22, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:15TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:17TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:17TXST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:38TXST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
15 plays · 92 yds · 5:2597% → 97%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
97.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+15
97.3%
Nicholls Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
97.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
97.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+8
97.1%
Brad Jackson run for 8 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
97.0%
(12:27) PENALTY TXST False Start 5 yards from TXST47 to TXST42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+9
97.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 9 yds to the NICH 49Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
96.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 7 yds to the NICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
96.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 9 yds to the NICH 33Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
96.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
96.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the NICH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
96.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 19 yds to the NICH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
96.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the NICH 9Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.9%
Brad Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 2FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 7:123% → 5%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
96.7%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Everett Hunter for 11 yds to the NICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
96.6%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 1 yd to the NICH 37Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
96.6%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Scrappy Osby for 4 yds to the NICH 41Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
96.7%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 5 yds to the NICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.6%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 5 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+19
96.4%
Shane Lee run for 19 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
96.3%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 8 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
96.2%
Shane Lee run for 1 yd to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
96.2%
Deuce Hogan run for 2 yds to the TXST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
96.0%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Shane Lee for 5 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+6
95.8%
run for 6 yds to the TXST 20 fumbled, recovered by NICH Deuce HoganSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+5
95.8%
Deuce Hogan run for 5 yds to the TXST 15Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
95.5%
Gabriel Showalter 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:2596% → 96%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+28
95.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 28 yds to the NICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
95.5%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the NICH 14Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
95.4%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the NICH 12Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+7
95.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the NICH 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 1 yd to the NICH 4Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.1%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:034% → 4%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.0%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 1 yd to the NICH 26Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
96.0%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Christian McNees for 7 yds to the NICH 33Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
95.8%
Shane Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the NICH 31Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
95.9%
(12:29) Harewood,Pharrell punt 40 yards to the TXST29 Sparks,Beau return 5 yards to the TXST34 (Wheeler,Kylin) PENALTY TXST Holding offsetting NICH Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
95.9%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 3:2896% → 97%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
95.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the TXST 17Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+3
95.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
95.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
96.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
95.9%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 43Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+5
95.6%
PENALTY NICH Encroachment 5 yards from TXST43 to TXST48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
95.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+45
95.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 45 yds to the NICH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:543% → 3%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Shotgun Hogan,Deuce pass incomplete short left to McNees,Christian thrown to NICH29 QB hurried by Russell,DonTerry PENALTY NICH Holding offsetting TXST Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.8%
Deuce Hogan run for 10 yds to the NICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.7%
Shane Lee run for no gain to the NICH 35Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.7%
Shane Lee run for 1 yd to the NICH 36Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+2
96.8%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 2 yds to the NICH 38Similar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
96.6%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 3:2297% → 99%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
96.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 7 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+7
96.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 7 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
96.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 29 yds to the NICH 42 for a 1ST down Nicholls Penalty, Defensive Holding (Laurence Sullivan Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.0%
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the NICH 42Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
97.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 7 yds to the NICH 35Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
97.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the NICH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 7 yds to the NICH 23Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+2
97.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the NICH 21Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
97.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the NICH 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
97.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the NICH 9Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
98.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 8INT
17 plays · 72 yds · 2:113% → 3%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.6%
Deuce Hogan run for 4 yds to the NICH 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
96.5%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 15 yds to the NICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Deuce Hogan pass incomplete to Karaaz JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
96.2%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 4 yds to the NICH 48Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+7
95.9%
Shane Lee run for 7 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
95.5%
(00:54) Shotgun Hogan,Deuce pass incomplete short right to Johnson,Karaaz thrown to TXST35 PENALTY TXST Personal Foul (Deeter,J.P.) 15 yards from TXST45 to TXST30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
95.2%
Deuce Hogan pass incomplete to Jackson DufreneSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
94.8%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Karaaz Johnson for 7 yds to the TXST 23Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+12
95.2%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for no gain to the TXST 30 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, (12 Yards) to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
94.5%
(00:29) Hogan,Deuce pass incomplete short right to Dufrene,Jackson thrown to TXST00 PENALTY TXST Pass Interference (Rios,Jaden) 15 yards from TXST18 to TXST03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.8%
Deuce Hogan run for no gain to the TXST 3Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.2%
Deuce Hogan pass incomplete to Scrappy OsbySimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.4%
Deuce Hogan pass intercepted, touchback. Khamari Terrell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.1%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds to the TXST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
98.6%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 20 yds to the NICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.7%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Cohen LeBlanc for 3 yds to the NICH 48Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-16
98.6%
Deuce Hogan sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 16 yards to the NICH 32Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 23
OWN 32
+12
98.6%
Nicholls Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 11
OWN 44
0
98.9%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:1999% → 99%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the TXST 21Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+16
99.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 16 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.1%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 1 yd to the TXST 38Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
99.2%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 5 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
99.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 8 yds to the NICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.2%
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the NICH 46Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
99.3%
Greg Burrell run for 7 yds to the NICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
99.2%
David Nunez punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:002% → 2%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
98.1%
PENALTY NICH False Start (Barnes,Kamron) 1 yard from NICH02 to NICH01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+5
98.1%
Shane Lee run for 5 yds to the NICH 6Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
98.2%
Shane Lee run for 4 yds to the NICH 10Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 10
0
98.2%
Shane Lee run for no gain to the NICH 10Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
98.2%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the NICH 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:2199% → 100%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.3%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the NICH 46Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.4%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 4 yds to the NICH 42Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
99.4%
Brad Jackson run for 7 yds to the NICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 7 yds to the NICH 28Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
99.6%
Greg Burrell run for 3 yds to the NICH 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.6%
Greg Burrell run for 7 yds to the NICH 18Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+4
99.6%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the NICH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 1 yd to the NICH 13Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+8
99.6%
Greg Burrell run for 8 yds to the NICH 5Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Greg Burrell run for 5 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 14DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 7:100% → 0%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 4 yds to the NICH 29Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for no gain to the NICH 29Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Everett Hunter for 5 yds to the NICH 34Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Deuce Hogan run for 3 yds to the NICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Shane Lee run for 1 yd to the NICH 38Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
Shane Lee run for 11 yds to the NICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.8%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 3 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Shane Lee run for no gain to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+14
99.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 14 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
99.8%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the TXST 37Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+5
99.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Scrappy Osby for 5 yds to the TXST 32Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Deuce Hogan run for no gain to the TXST 32Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 1 yd to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Keldric Luster run for 2 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 14 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 5
50
0
99.9%
Keldric Luster pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 5
50
0
99.9%
David Nunez punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 16PUNT
13 plays · 39 yds · 5:200% → 0%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
99.9%
Shane Lee run for 1 yd to the NICH 12Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+3
99.9%
Jonathan Dartez run for 3 yds to the NICH 15Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+9
99.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Jonathan Dartez for 9 yds to the NICH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Jonathan Dartez run for no gain to the NICH 24Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
99.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Brian McQuaide for 12 yds to the NICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Deuce Hogan run for 5 yds to the NICH 41Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
99.9%
DK Kency Jr. run for no gain to the NICH 41Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
PENALTY TXST Offside (Keys,D'Ante) 5 yards from NICH41 to NICH46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Jonathan Dartez run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
50
0
99.9%
Jonathan Dartez run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
50
0
99.9%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 6
50
0
99.9%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
100.0%
Greg Burrell run for 9 yds to the TXST 29 Greg Burrell fumbled, recovered by NICH Travin MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Ean Rodrigue pass incomplete to Damondrick BlackburnSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
99.9%
Damondrick Blackburn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 30Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+8
99.9%
Damondrick Blackburn run for 8 yds to the TXST 22Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 3
OPP 22
-1
99.9%
Damondrick Blackburn run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:16
Timeout Nicholls, clock 00:16
+2.6
TD · Q2 8:33
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 14:17
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com