Try the model
APP

App State 22 at Southern Miss 38

USM
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:30 · Dominic De Freitas 49 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense+11.3Score differential+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Pregame prior−2.0Garbage-time factor+2.8Defense timeouts+3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:05: Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK) — USM win probability +5.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:40: AJ Swann pass intercepted Ian Foster return for 99 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK) — USM win probability +9.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:20: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs for 8 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK) — USM win probability +11.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:06: Jaquari Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK) — APP win probability +16.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:23: Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK) — USM win probability +6.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:52USM 4th & 13 at USM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52USM 4th & 13 at USM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51APP 4th & 5 at APP 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09USM 4th & 15 at APP 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:19USM 4th & 14 at APP 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:54APP 4th & 2 at APP 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:53APP 4th & 15 at APP 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:14APP 4th & 3 at USM 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−2.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:51USM 4th & 11 at USM 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−2.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:25APP 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−3.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−4.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:30APP 4th & 5 at USM 31, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:23APP 4th & 10 at APP 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:34APP 4th & 4 at APP 43, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:38APP 4th & 9 at USM 42, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:10USM 4th & 3 at USM 49, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:02APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:05USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:40USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:20USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:06APP Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:23USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:29USM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:51APP Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1INT
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:4359% → 59%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
41.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+42
41.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 42 yds to the USM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
41.2%
AJ Swann run for 6 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+2
41.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the USM 13Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+6
41.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
41.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
41.4%
AJ Swann pass intercepted, touchback. Anthony Richard Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1542% → 42%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
42.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 3 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+4
42.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 4 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-4
42.2%
Southern Miss Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Braylon Braxton) to the USM 17Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
42.1%
Jack Murley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaden Barnes at the APP 38Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
42.1%
Jack Murley punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaden Barnes at the APP 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:4458% → 61%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
42.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 39Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+14
41.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 14 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
41.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 27 yds to the USM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
42.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 4 yds to the USM 16Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+7
42.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 7 yds to the USM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
42.2%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Swann,AJ pass incomplete short right to Stroman,Dalton thrown to USM00 broken up by Richard, Jr.,Anthony PENALTY USM Pass Interference (Richard, Jr.,Anthony) 7 yards from USM09 to USM02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4739% → 46%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.1%
Elijah Metcalf run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
39.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
38.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 13 yds to the USM 42 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaelin Willis) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
39.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 2
50
+6
39.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 6 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
39.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs for 14 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (DeNigel Cooper) to the APP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
40.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 7 yds to the APP 8Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+3
40.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the APP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.7%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kyirin HeathSimilar
Q1 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
46.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0756% → 55%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.7%
Jaquari Lewis run for 2 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
43.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 3 yds to the APP 30Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
44.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
44.7%
Ian Ratliff punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:3445% → 47%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
45.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 5 yds to the USM 32Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-1
45.7%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 31Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+12
45.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 12 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
46.8%
Robert Briggs run for 8 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+33
47.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 33 yds to the APP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
47.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+4
48.1%
Elijah Metcalf run for 4 yds to the APP 12Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 6
OPP 12
-9
46.8%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Thomas Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the APP 21Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+39
46.9%
Reed Harradine 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7INT TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:2052% → 44%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
47.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 9 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
47.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
47.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
47.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 17 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
46.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 30 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
44.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the USM 7Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
46.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 3 yds to the USM 4Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-99
55.6%
AJ Swann pass intercepted Ian Foster return for 99 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8INT
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:4741% → 38%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
60.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 26 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
58.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the USM 48Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
59.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 8 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
59.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
59.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
59.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Izayah CummingsSimilar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+15
60.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 15 yds to the USM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
59.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 4 yds to the USM 18Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+9
59.5%
Southern Miss Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (9 Yards) to the USM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
59.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 15Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
61.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to William Fowles for 8 yds to the USM 7Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-18
61.6%
AJ Swann pass intercepted Mathis Haygood return for 18 yds to the USM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:2271% → 71%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
70.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 3 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-5
70.4%
PENALTY USM False Start (Maui,Aloali'i) 5 yards from USM21 to USM16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
71.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+48
70.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 48 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
70.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the APP 48Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 22
OPP 48
-5
69.4%
PENALTY USM False Start (Nunnery,Greg) 5 yards from APP48 to USM47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 27
OWN 47
+8
69.4%
Robert Briggs run for 8 yds to the APP 45Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+5
70.6%
Robert Briggs run for 5 yds to the APP 40Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
70.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
70.7%
Jack Murley punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:2033% → 29%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
66.8%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+11
67.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the APP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.9%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
70.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
70.5%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+4
71.3%
Ian Ratliff punt for 49 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 4 yds to the USM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4772% → 67%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
72.2%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
70.0%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep right to Davis,Micah thrown to APP40 broken up by Floyd,Emory PENALTY APP Offside offsetting USM Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-2
66.7%
(00:14) Kneel down by Southern Miss at USM29 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2667% → 84%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
67.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 10 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
67.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 16 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
69.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 16 yds to the APP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
70.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 12 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
71.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
71.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 7 yds to the APP 14Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
70.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the APP 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
72.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the APP 8Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs for 8 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1819% → 17%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
81.4%
Noah Gillon sacked by J'Mond Tapp for a loss of 9 yards to the APP 16Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+4
82.5%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 4 yds to the APP 20Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
83.1%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
83.3%
Ian Ratliff punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3588% → 89%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
87.9%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the USM 29Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
88.7%
Braylon Braxton pass intercepted DJ Burks return for no gain to the USM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4119% → 15%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
80.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the USM 40Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-6
81.8%
Noah Gillon sacked by J'Mond Tapp for a loss of 6 yards to the USM 46Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+12
84.3%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 12 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
84.6%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1691% → 91%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
90.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the USM 35Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+2
91.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 2 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
91.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
90.8%
Jack Murley punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:3814% → 25%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
86.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
86.5%
Noah Gillon run for 1 yd to the APP 33Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+7
88.0%
Noah Gillon run for 7 yds to the APP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
88.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 17 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
88.1%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 8 yds to the USM 35Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
86.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the USM 34Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
88.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the USM 34Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+11
89.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
88.6%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
89.2%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Doopah ColemanSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+4
91.1%
Noah Gillon run for 4 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 6
OPP 19
0
91.5%
(01:12) De Freitas,Dominic field goal attempt from 37 yards NO GOOD (H: Ratliff,Ian, LS: Poff,Jacob), clock 01:11 PENALTY USM Offside declined USM Roughing The Kicker (Moten,Josh) 9 yards from USM19 to USM10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
74.8%
Jaquari Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1523% → 18%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
76.9%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 7 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+7
78.2%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 7 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-11
78.7%
Noah Gillon sacked by J'Mond Tapp for a loss of 11 yards to the USM 47Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 21
OPP 47
+16
80.9%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 16 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
79.5%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to William FowlesSimilar
Q4 13:30
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
81.7%
Dominic De Freitas 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:0190% → 98%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
89.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+26
90.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 11 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Kevin Abrams-Verwayne) to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
91.3%
PENALTY USM False Start (Roman,Broderick) 5 yards from APP36 to APP41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
91.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 6 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+26
91.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 26 yds to the APP 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:564% → 4%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Doopah ColemanSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.9%
Noah Gillon run for no gain to the APP 25Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Noah Gillon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.5%
Ian Ratliff punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah Metcalf at the USM 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:4598% → 100%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
98.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 38Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+41
98.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 41 yds to the APP 21 for a 1ST down App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaelin Willis) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 21 yds for a TD App State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaelin Willis) declined (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:311% → 1%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.0%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Chris Lawson Jr. for 12 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
99.0%
Noah Gillon sacked by Eric Thomas Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the APP 30Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 17
OWN 30
-5
99.1%
PENALTY APP False Start (Ramsey,Trent) 5 yards from APP30 to APP25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 22
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Jaden BarnesSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 22
OWN 25
+18
99.1%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Chris Lawson Jr. for 18 yds to the APP 43Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+14
99.2%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 14 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.3%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun Gillon,Noah pass incomplete short right to Lawson Jr.,Chris thrown to USM38 broken up by Foster,Ian PENALTY APP Illegal Touch-Pass declined APP Holding (Jackson,Shamarr) 10 yards from USM43 to APP47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+6
99.3%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 6 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
99.3%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Doopah ColemanSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+5
99.4%
Noah Gillon pass complete to Doopah Coleman for 5 yds to the USM 42Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
99.4%
Noah Gillon pass incomplete to Doopah ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.7%
Landry Lyddy run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 41Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Landry Lyddy pass incomplete to Grant PageSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Jack Murley punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 2:501% → 3%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
99.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the APP 38Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+12
99.5%
Billy Wiles run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
50
+6
99.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to David Larkins for 6 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Billy Wiles run for no gain to the USM 44Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+19
99.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to William Fowles for 19 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
99.5%
PENALTY APP False Start (Burgess,Luke) 5 yards from USM25 to USM30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 15
OPP 30
-9
99.5%
Billy Wiles sacked by Jameer Lewis for a loss of 9 yards to the USM 39Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 24
OPP 39
+15
99.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Avery Sledge) to the USM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
99.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jaquari Lewis for 14 yds to the USM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.0%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 3 yds for a TD (Jaquari Lewis pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3999% → 100%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
99.3%
Jaylin Carter run for 7 yds to the APP 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-2
99.5%
(00:16) Kneel down by Southern Miss at APP36 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:06
Jaquari Lewis run for 10 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
-16.7
TD · Q3 11:20
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs for 8 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
+11.6
TD · Q2 10:40
AJ Swann pass intercepted Ian Foster return for 99 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
+9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com