Try the model
EKU

Eastern Kentucky 7 at Marshall 38

MRSH
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreEKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:07 · Jacob Baker punt for 43 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 6 yds to the MRSH 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Pregame prior+17.6Home team on offense+22.3Score differential+14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5Garbage-time factor+4.6Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:01: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:25: Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:08: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 30 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:08: Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jayden West for 13 yds for a TD Marshall Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Paul Hutson III) to the MRSH 0 (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — EKU win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:01: JacQai Long run for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 8EKU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:46MRSH 4th & 2 at EKU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34EKU 4th & 14 at EKU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13MRSH 4th & 1 at EKU 1, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:40EKU 4th & 13 at EKU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:33EKU 4th & 24 at EKU 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−2.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:55EKU 4th & 21 at MRSH 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:32MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 39, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:57EKU 4th & 12 at EKU 11, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:06MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:07EKU 4th & 21 at EKU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:49EKU 4th & 12 at MRSH 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:34MRSH 4th & 7 at midfield, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:21EKU 4th & 11 at EKU 7, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:09MRSH 4th & 1 at EKU 14, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:14EKU 4th & 5 at EKU 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:00MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 40, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:39EKU 4th & 5 at EKU 6, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:05EKU 4th & 4 at EKU 13, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00MRSH 4th & 1 at EKU 39, up 31
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    100.0%
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5EKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:01MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:25MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:03MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:08MRSH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:08EKU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:01MRSH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EKUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
86.9%
Myles Burkett pass intercepted Boogie Trotter return for 11 yds to the EKU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5687% → 87%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
86.8%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 3 yds to the EKU 21Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
86.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Xayvion Turner-BradshawSimilar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+5
86.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 5 yds to the EKU 16Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 2
OPP 16
0
86.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for no gain to the EKU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:5914% → 14%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
86.5%
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 18Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+9
86.4%
Myles Burkett run for 9 yds to the EKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
86.2%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Burkett,Myles pass incomplete short middle to Schlachter,Caeleb thrown to EKU27 broken up by Lewis,Cannon PENALTY EKU Pass Interference (Stanley,Dequan) 13 yards from EKU27 to EKU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 23
OWN 14
+5
86.2%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Latham,Brayden rush middle for 5 yards gain to the EKU19 (Lewis,Cannon; Martin,Kerion) PENALTY MAR Offside (Crowder,Naquan) 5 yards from EKU14 to EKU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 18
OWN 19
+2
86.1%
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 21Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+2
85.9%
Myles Burkett run for 2 yds to the EKU 23Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
85.8%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Dequan StanleySimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+43
85.8%
Jacob Baker punt for 38 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 43 yds to the EKU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1086% → 85%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
85.9%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 12 yds to the EKU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
85.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the EKU 3Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.7%
Jo'Shon Barbie run for no gain to the EKU 3Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
85.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 2 yds to the EKU 1Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
85.4%
Lorcan Quinn 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 5INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5215% → 16%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
85.3%
Myles Burkett pass complete to Ron Vann Jr. for 13 yds to the EKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
85.0%
Jalen Montgomery run for 2 yds to the EKU 40Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+1
84.8%
Jalen Montgomery run for 1 yd to the EKU 41Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
84.4%
Marshall Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the EKU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:4885% → 87%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
85.2%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the EKU 18Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+14
85.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 14 yds to the EKU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:0614% → 14%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.7%
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 27Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
85.5%
Myles Burkett sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the EKU 22Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
86.2%
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to T.J. MitchellSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
86.3%
Jacob Baker punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRSH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:0189% → 92%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+31
89.3%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw for 16 yds to the EKU 40 for a 1ST down Eastern Kentucky Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marcus Calwise Jr.) to the EKU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
89.7%
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw run for a loss of 10 yards to the EKU 35Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+3
89.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Jo'Shon Barbie for 3 yds to the EKU 32Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 17
OPP 32
+5
88.8%
(02:14) PENALTY EKU Offside (Bailey,Jeremiah) 5 yards from EKU32 to EKU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+15
89.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 15 yds to the EKU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
89.4%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the EKU 9Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
89.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Justin Williams-Thomas for 6 yds to the EKU 3Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
91.7%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:2710% → 10%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Jalen Montgomery run for no gain to the EKU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.8%
Brayden Latham run for a loss of 5 yards to the EKU 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-9
89.9%
Myles Burkett sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the EKU 11Similar
Q2 13:33
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
90.0%
Jacob Baker punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:3093% → 95%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
93.1%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 1 yd to the EKU 34Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
93.0%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the EKU 30Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
94.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Justin Williams-Thomas for 30 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 3:547% → 6%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.4%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Cameron Hergott for 6 yds to the EKU 31Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
93.3%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Marcus Calwise Jr. for 10 yds to the EKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
93.4%
Brayden Latham run for a loss of 3 yards to the EKU 38Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+15
93.9%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Potts,Jordyn pass incomplete deep left to Calwise Jr.,Marcus thrown to MAR25 QB hurried by Martin,Kerion PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Smith,Daytione) 15 yards from EKU38 to MAR47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.4%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron HergottSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
93.6%
Jordyn Potts run for 7 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+4
93.3%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Marcus Calwise Jr. for 4 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.4%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron HergottSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
93.5%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron HergottSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-11
93.6%
Jordyn Potts sacked by Braydin Ward for a loss of 11 yards to the MRSH 47Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 21
OPP 47
0
93.9%
Jacob Baker punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRSH 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:1396% → 96%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
96.1%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 2 yds to the MRSH 8Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+19
96.2%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 19 yds to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
96.0%
Michael Allen run for 7 yds to the MRSH 34Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
96.1%
Ben Turner run for 4 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
96.4%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Brad Gurley for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 33Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+6
96.3%
JacQai Long pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 6 yds to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
96.2%
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Michael AllenSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Nathan Totten punt for 38 yds, fair catch by T.J. Mitchell at the EKU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:315% → 4%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
94.7%
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Potts,Jordyn pass complete short right to Calwise Jr.,Marcus caught at EKU18, for 10 yards to the EKU23 (Green-McKnight,Jadarius) PENALTY EKU Illegal Formation 5 yards from EKU13 to EKU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+2
94.9%
Brady Hensley run for 2 yds to the EKU 10Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 13
OWN 10
-3
94.9%
Jordyn Potts sacked by Tyas Martin for a loss of 3 yards to the EKU 7Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 16
OWN 7
+4
95.2%
Jordyn Potts run for 4 yds to the EKU 11Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
95.6%
Jacob Baker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Lacey at the MRSH 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 1:4397% → 99%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
96.7%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 4 yds to the EKU 49Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
96.8%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the EKU 46Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
96.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Justin Williams-Thomas for 5 yds to the EKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
96.9%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 18 yds to the EKU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
96.5%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Cam Junior for a loss of 7 yards to the EKU 30Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 17
OPP 30
0
96.6%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to De'Andre TamarezSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 17
OPP 30
+30
98.7%
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 30 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.7%
Brayden Latham run for 11 yds to the EKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
98.9%
Justin Williams-Thomas run for no gain to the MRSH 15Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
98.9%
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Xayvion Turner-BradshawSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-1
99.0%
JacQai Long sacked by Cam Junior for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 14 JacQai Long fumbled, recovered by EKU Tommy Ziesmer , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:581% → 4%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.0%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Ron Vann Jr.Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.0%
Jordyn Potts run for 1 yd to the MRSH 13Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
95.8%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jayden West for 13 yds for a TD Marshall Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Paul Hutson III) to the MRSH 0 (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:4796% → 97%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
96.2%
JacQai Long run for 5 yds to the MRSH 32Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
96.2%
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Michael AllenSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-5
96.3%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Long,JacQai rush right for 21 yards gain to the EKU47 (Ward,Jaheim) PENALTY MAR Illegal Formation 5 yards from MAR32 to MAR27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-5
96.9%
(12:02) PENALTY MAR False Start (Tamarez,De'Andre) 5 yards from MAR27 to MAR22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+2
96.9%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the MRSH 24Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Nathan Totten punt for 39 yds, fair catch by T.J. Mitchell at the EKU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:554% → 3%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron HergottSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
96.2%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Dequan StanleySimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-11
96.4%
Jordyn Potts sacked by Cam Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the EKU 26Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 21
OWN 26
+6
96.6%
Jacob Baker punt for 43 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 6 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:5698% → 100%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+35
97.5%
JacQai Long run for 20 yds to the EKU 43 for a 1ST down Eastern Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaheim Ward) to the EKU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
97.7%
Antwan Roberts run for 12 yds to the EKU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.7%
Antwan Roberts run for no gain to the EKU 16Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+13
97.9%
Antwan Roberts run for 13 yds to the EKU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
JacQai Long run for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:591% → 1%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
Brayden Latham run for a loss of 1 yard to the EKU 24Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+36
99.5%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to T.J. Mitchell for 36 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.3%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Kyle Vaka for 11 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.2%
PENALTY MAR Offside (Chmura,Cameron) 5 yards from MAR29 to MAR24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 5
OPP 24
-5
99.1%
Jordyn Potts run for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 29Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.2%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jayden West for 2 yds to the MRSH 31Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
99.4%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Jayden WestSimilar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
99.1%
Buzz Flabiano 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
99.7%
Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MRSH 38Similar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 3
OWN 38
+9
99.7%
JacQai Long run for 9 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.7%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 7
50
0
99.7%
JacQai Long run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 7
50
0
99.7%
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 7
50
0
99.7%
Nathan Totten punt for 42 yds, fair catch by T.J. Mitchell at the EKU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.7%
Brady Hensley run for 3 yds to the EKU 11Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
99.8%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Ron Vann Jr.Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-4
99.8%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Potts,Jordyn pass complete short left to Hergott,Cameron caught at EKU25, for 23 yards to the EKU34 (Myers,Marvae; Green-McKnight,Jadarius) PENALTY EKU Illegal Touch-Pass (Mitchell,T.J.) 4 yards from EKU11 to EKU07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+2
99.8%
Jacob Baker punt blocked by Zavier Short blocked by Zavier Short (01:21) Baker,Jacob punt 0 yards to the EKU07 blocked by Short,Zavier recovered by MAR Lacey,Demarcus at EKU25 Lacey,Demarcus return 2 yards to the EKU23 (House,Jackson). , Demarcus Lacey returns for 2 yds to the EKU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24MISSED FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the EKU 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+7
99.8%
JacQai Long run for 7 yds to the EKU 15Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
99.8%
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the EKU 14Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+32
99.9%
Lorcan Quinn 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Dequan StanleySimilar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Marcus Calwise Jr.Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Jordyn Potts run for 5 yds to the EKU 25Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jacob Baker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Lacey at the MRSH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
99.9%
JacQai Long run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 32Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
JacQai Long run for 5 yds to the MRSH 37Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
JacQai Long run for 3 yds to the MRSH 40Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Nathan Totten punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.9%
Brady Hensley run for 1 yd to the EKU 2Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
99.9%
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the EKU 6Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
99.9%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron HergottSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+21
99.9%
Jacob Baker punt for 46 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 21 yds to the EKU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
99.9%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the EKU 23Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
Zion Turner run for 4 yds to the EKU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Michael Allen run for 6 yds to the EKU 13Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+1
99.9%
Antwan Roberts run for 1 yd to the EKU 12Similar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+11
99.9%
Zion Turner run for 11 yds to the EKU 7 Zion Turner fumbled, recovered by EKU Charles Ingram VSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
99.9%
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the EKU 11Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
99.9%
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 13Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
100.0%
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Dequan StanleySimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+1
100.0%
Jacob Baker punt for 70 yds , Jr. Sherone White returns for 1 yd to the MRSH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 30END OF GAME
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
99.9%
Judah Price run for 7 yds to the MRSH 25Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Judah Price run for no gain to the MRSH 25Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Zion Turner run for 11 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
100.0%
Judah Price run for 5 yds to the MRSH 41Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
100.0%
Judah Price run for 11 yds to the EKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
100.0%
Judah Price run for 1 yd to the EKU 47Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
Zion Turner run for 5 yds to the EKU 42Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+3
100.0%
Judah Price run for 3 yds to the EKU 39Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
100.0%
Judah Price run for 2 yds to the EKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:08
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 30 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q3 13:08
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jayden West for 13 yds for a TD Marshall Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Paul Hutson III) to the MRSH 0 (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q1 0:25
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com