ARDLINETry the model
EKU

Eastern Kentucky 7 at Marshall 38

MRSH
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey play
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4KEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYTDKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAYKEY PLAY
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
EKU · Drive 1INT · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q1 15:00
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
77.5%
0.0
Q1 14:51
Myles Burkett pass intercepted Boogie Trotter return for 11 yds to the EKU 24
75.1%
-2.4
MRSH · Drive 2DOWNS · 4 plays · 8 yds
Q1 14:42
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 3 yds to the EKU 21
78.1%
+3.0
Q1 14:23
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw
78.1%
0.0
Q1 14:12
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 5 yds to the EKU 16
78.1%
0.0
Q1 13:46
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for no gain to the EKU 16
77.8%
-0.3
EKU · Drive 3PUNT · 9 plays · 7 yds
Q1 13:46
Timeout Marshall, clock 13:46
75.6%
-2.2
Q1 13:33
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 18
75.6%
0.0
Q1 13:02
Myles Burkett run for 9 yds to the EKU 27 for a 1ST down
75.6%
0.0
Q1 12:30
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Burkett,Myles pass incomplete short middle to Schlachter,Caeleb thrown to EKU27 broken up by Lewis,Cannon PENALTY EKU Pass Interference (Stanley,Dequan) 13 yards from EKU27 to EKU14. NO PLAY.
75.6%
0.0
Q1 12:24
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Latham,Brayden rush middle for 5 yards gain to the EKU19 (Lewis,Cannon; Martin,Kerion) PENALTY MAR Offside (Crowder,Naquan) 5 yards from EKU14 to EKU19. NO PLAY.
75.6%
0.0
Q1 12:07
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 21
75.6%
0.0
Q1 11:28
Myles Burkett run for 2 yds to the EKU 23
75.4%
-0.2
Q1 10:48
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to Dequan Stanley
75.4%
+0.1
Q1 10:34
Jacob Baker punt for 38 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 43 yds to the EKU 18
75.6%
+0.2
MRSH · Drive 4FG · 6 plays · 17 yds
Q1 10:23
Jo'Shon Barbie run for 12 yds to the EKU 6 for a 1ST down
76.6%
+1.0
Q1 9:57
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the EKU 3
76.6%
0.0
Q1 9:20
Jo'Shon Barbie run for no gain to the EKU 3
76.6%
0.0
Q1 8:50
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 2 yds to the EKU 1
76.6%
0.0
Q1 8:13
Lorcan Quinn 19 yd FG GOOD
79.2%
+2.7
Q1 8:13
Timeout Marshall, clock 08:13
75.3%
-4.0
EKU · Drive 5INT · 5 plays · 16 yds
Q1 8:13
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
82.1%
+6.9
Q1 7:58
Myles Burkett pass complete to Ron Vann Jr. for 13 yds to the EKU 38 for a 1ST down
80.9%
-1.2
Q1 7:37
Jalen Montgomery run for 2 yds to the EKU 40
80.4%
-0.5
Q1 6:50
Jalen Montgomery run for 1 yd to the EKU 41
80.3%
-0.1
Q1 6:06
Marshall Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the EKU 21
79.6%
-0.7
MRSH · Drive 6TD · 4 plays · 21 yds
Q1 5:49
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the EKU 18
81.6%
+2.1
Q1 5:27
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 14 yds to the EKU 4 for a 1ST down
81.6%
0.0
Q1 5:01
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
92.3%
+10.7
Q1 5:01
Timeout Marshall, clock 05:01
80.1%
-12.2
EKU · Drive 7PUNT · 5 plays · -3 yds
Q1 5:01
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
96.6%
+16.5
Q1 4:46
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 27
90.6%
-6.0
Q1 4:16
Myles Burkett sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the EKU 22
90.9%
+0.2
Q1 3:40
Myles Burkett pass incomplete to T.J. Mitchell
90.9%
0.0
Q1 3:40
Jacob Baker punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRSH 44
90.9%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 8TD · 8 plays · 56 yds
Q1 3:26
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw for 16 yds to the EKU 40 for a 1ST down Eastern Kentucky Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marcus Calwise Jr.) to the EKU 25 for a 1ST down
96.4%
+5.6
Q1 3:15
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw run for a loss of 10 yards to the EKU 35
96.4%
0.0
Q1 2:38
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Jo'Shon Barbie for 3 yds to the EKU 32
96.3%
-0.1
Q1 2:15
(02:14) PENALTY EKU Offside (Bailey,Jeremiah) 5 yards from EKU32 to EKU27. NO PLAY.
96.1%
-0.2
Q1 1:47
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 15 yds to the EKU 12 for a 1ST down
96.1%
0.0
Q1 1:26
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds to the EKU 9
95.9%
-0.2
Q1 0:52
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Justin Williams-Thomas for 6 yds to the EKU 3
95.5%
-0.4
Q1 0:25
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
98.5%
+3.0
EKU · Drive 9PUNT · 5 plays · -14 yds
Q1 0:25
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
98.6%
+0.1
Q1 0:00
Jalen Montgomery run for no gain to the EKU 25
96.7%
-1.9
Q2 15:00
Brayden Latham run for a loss of 5 yards to the EKU 20
96.7%
0.0
Q2 15:00
Myles Burkett sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the EKU 11
96.7%
0.0
Q2 13:33
Jacob Baker punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKU 35
96.7%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 10TD · 4 plays · 35 yds
Q2 13:33
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 1 yd to the EKU 34
98.7%
+2.0
Q2 13:33
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds to the EKU 30
98.7%
0.0
Q2 12:03
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Justin Williams-Thomas for 30 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
98.9%
+0.2
Q2 12:03
Timeout Marshall, clock 12:03
97.0%
-1.9
EKU · Drive 11PUNT · 13 plays · 28 yds
Q2 12:03
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds
99.2%
+2.2
Q2 11:49
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Cameron Hergott for 6 yds to the EKU 31
98.5%
-0.7
Q2 11:11
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Marcus Calwise Jr. for 10 yds to the EKU 41 for a 1ST down
98.5%
0.0
Q2 10:44
Brayden Latham run for a loss of 3 yards to the EKU 38
98.5%
0.0
Q2 10:05
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Potts,Jordyn pass incomplete deep left to Calwise Jr.,Marcus thrown to MAR25 QB hurried by Martin,Kerion PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Smith,Daytione) 15 yards from EKU38 to MAR47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.
98.5%
0.0
Q2 10:03
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron Hergott
98.5%
0.0
Q2 9:52
Jordyn Potts run for 7 yds to the MRSH 40
98.5%
0.0
Q2 9:12
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Marcus Calwise Jr. for 4 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST down
98.6%
0.0
Q2 8:39
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron Hergott
98.6%
0.0
Q2 8:37
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron Hergott
98.6%
0.0
Q2 8:27
Jordyn Potts sacked by Braydin Ward for a loss of 11 yards to the MRSH 47
98.6%
0.0
Q2 8:02
Timeout Marshall, clock 08:02
98.6%
+0.1
Q2 7:55
Jacob Baker punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MRSH 6
98.6%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 12PUNT · 9 plays · 33 yds
Q2 7:45
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 2 yds to the MRSH 8
99.3%
+0.7
Q2 7:10
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 19 yds to the MRSH 27 for a 1ST down
99.3%
0.0
Q2 6:50
Michael Allen run for 7 yds to the MRSH 34
99.3%
0.0
Q2 6:13
Ben Turner run for 4 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST down
99.3%
0.0
Q2 5:42
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Brad Gurley for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 33
99.3%
0.0
Q2 5:32
Timeout Marshall, clock 05:32
99.3%
0.0
Q2 4:54
JacQai Long pass complete to De'Andre Tamarez for 6 yds to the MRSH 39
99.3%
0.0
Q2 4:41
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Michael Allen
99.3%
0.0
Q2 4:32
Nathan Totten punt for 38 yds, fair catch by T.J. Mitchell at the EKU 13
99.3%
0.0
EKU · Drive 13PUNT · 6 plays · -2 yds
Q2 4:28
(04:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Potts,Jordyn pass complete short right to Calwise Jr.,Marcus caught at EKU18, for 10 yards to the EKU23 (Green-McKnight,Jadarius) PENALTY EKU Illegal Formation 5 yards from EKU13 to EKU08. NO PLAY.
98.5%
-0.8
Q2 3:59
Brady Hensley run for 2 yds to the EKU 10
98.5%
+0.1
Q2 3:22
Jordyn Potts sacked by Tyas Martin for a loss of 3 yards to the EKU 7
98.5%
0.0
Q2 2:29
Jordyn Potts run for 4 yds to the EKU 11
98.5%
0.0
Q2 2:02
Timeout Marshall, clock 02:02
98.5%
0.0
Q2 1:57
Jacob Baker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Lacey at the MRSH 47
98.5%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 14TD · 11 plays · 53 yds
Q2 1:57
Timeout Marshall, clock 01:57
99.4%
+0.9
Q2 1:51
Justin Williams-Thomas run for 4 yds to the EKU 49
99.4%
0.0
Q2 1:15
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 3 yds to the EKU 46
99.4%
0.0
Q2 0:39
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Justin Williams-Thomas for 5 yds to the EKU 41 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q2 0:26
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Toby Payne for 18 yds to the EKU 23 for a 1ST down
99.4%
0.0
Q2 0:26
Timeout Marshall, clock 00:26
99.4%
0.0
Q2 0:19
Timeout Marshall, clock 00:19
99.4%
0.0
Q2 0:15
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson sacked by Cam Junior for a loss of 7 yards to the EKU 30
99.4%
0.0
Q2 0:14
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass incomplete to De'Andre Tamarez
99.4%
0.0
Q2 0:14
Timeout Marshall, clock 00:14
99.2%
-0.2
Q2 0:08
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass complete to Adrian Norton for 30 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
99.6%
+0.4
EKU · Drive 15END OF HALF · 2 plays · 11 yds
Q2 0:08
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
0.0
Q2 0:00
Brayden Latham run for 11 yds to the EKU 36 for a 1ST down
99.1%
-0.5
MRSH · Drive 16FUMBLE · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q3 14:52
Buzz Flabiano kickoff for 64 yds , Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw return for 14 yds to the MRSH 15
99.0%
-0.2
Q3 14:44
Justin Williams-Thomas run for no gain to the MRSH 15
99.4%
+0.5
Q3 14:17
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw
99.4%
0.0
Q3 14:11
JacQai Long sacked by Cam Junior for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 14 JacQai Long fumbled, recovered by EKU Tommy Ziesmer , return for 0 yards
99.4%
0.0
EKU · Drive 17TD · 4 plays · 14 yds
Q3 14:06
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Ron Vann Jr.
99.0%
-0.4
Q3 13:51
Jordyn Potts run for 1 yd to the MRSH 13
99.0%
0.0
Q3 13:08
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jayden West for 13 yds for a TD Marshall Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Paul Hutson III) to the MRSH 0 (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
98.1%
-0.9
Q3 13:08
Timeout Marshall, clock 13:08
99.6%
+1.5
MRSH · Drive 18PUNT · 7 plays · -3 yds
Q3 13:02
Buzz Flabiano kickoff for 35 yds , Jayden Johnson return for 12 yds to the MRSH 27
98.4%
-1.2
Q3 12:53
JacQai Long run for 5 yds to the MRSH 32
99.1%
+0.7
Q3 12:22
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Michael Allen
99.1%
0.0
Q3 12:18
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Long,JacQai rush right for 21 yards gain to the EKU47 (Ward,Jaheim) PENALTY MAR Illegal Formation 5 yards from MAR32 to MAR27. NO PLAY.
99.1%
0.0
Q3 12:05
(12:02) PENALTY MAR False Start (Tamarez,De'Andre) 5 yards from MAR27 to MAR22. NO PLAY.
99.3%
+0.1
Q3 11:38
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the MRSH 24
99.3%
0.0
Q3 11:06
Nathan Totten punt for 39 yds, fair catch by T.J. Mitchell at the EKU 37
99.3%
0.0
EKU · Drive 19PUNT · 5 plays · -11 yds
Q3 11:06
Timeout Marshall, clock 11:06
98.5%
-0.8
Q3 11:02
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron Hergott
98.5%
0.0
Q3 10:56
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Dequan Stanley
98.5%
0.0
Q3 10:44
Jordyn Potts sacked by Cam Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the EKU 26
98.5%
0.0
Q3 10:07
Jacob Baker punt for 43 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 6 yds to the MRSH 37
98.5%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 20TD · 6 plays · 63 yds
Q3 9:57
JacQai Long run for 20 yds to the EKU 43 for a 1ST down Eastern Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaheim Ward) to the EKU 28 for a 1ST down
99.5%
+1.0
Q3 9:41
Antwan Roberts run for 12 yds to the EKU 16 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q3 9:17
Antwan Roberts run for no gain to the EKU 16
99.5%
0.0
Q3 8:34
Antwan Roberts run for 13 yds to the EKU 3 for a 1ST down
99.5%
0.0
Q3 8:01
JacQai Long run for 3 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
99.6%
+0.1
Q3 8:01
Timeout Marshall, clock 08:01
98.6%
-1.1
EKU · Drive 21MISSED FG · 9 plays · 44 yds
Q3 8:01
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
99.6%
+1.1
Q3 7:48
Brayden Latham run for a loss of 1 yard to the EKU 24
99.2%
-0.5
Q3 7:02
Jordyn Potts pass complete to T.J. Mitchell for 36 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q3 6:29
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Kyle Vaka for 11 yds to the MRSH 29 for a 1ST down
99.2%
0.0
Q3 6:05
PENALTY MAR Offside (Chmura,Cameron) 5 yards from MAR29 to MAR24. NO PLAY.
99.2%
0.0
Q3 5:39
Jordyn Potts run for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 29
99.2%
0.0
Q3 5:28
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jayden West for 2 yds to the MRSH 31
99.2%
0.0
Q3 4:55
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Jayden West
99.3%
+0.1
Q3 4:49
Buzz Flabiano 48 yd FG MISSED
99.3%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 22PUNT · 6 plays · 19 yds
Q3 4:39
Marshall Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MRSH 38
99.6%
+0.4
Q3 4:27
JacQai Long run for 9 yds to the MRSH 47 for a 1ST down
99.6%
0.0
Q3 3:53
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line
99.6%
0.0
Q3 3:22
JacQai Long run for no gain to the 50 yard line
99.6%
0.0
Q3 2:41
JacQai Long pass incomplete to Antonio Harmon
99.6%
0.0
Q3 2:34
Nathan Totten punt for 42 yds, fair catch by T.J. Mitchell at the EKU 8
99.6%
0.0
EKU · Drive 23PUNT · 4 plays · -1 yds
Q3 2:27
Brady Hensley run for 3 yds to the EKU 11
99.3%
-0.4
Q3 1:45
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Ron Vann Jr.
99.3%
0.0
Q3 1:31
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Potts,Jordyn pass complete short left to Hergott,Cameron caught at EKU25, for 23 yards to the EKU34 (Myers,Marvae; Green-McKnight,Jadarius) PENALTY EKU Illegal Touch-Pass (Mitchell,T.J.) 4 yards from EKU11 to EKU07. NO PLAY.
99.3%
0.0
Q3 1:21
Jacob Baker punt blocked by Zavier Short blocked by Zavier Short (01:21) Baker,Jacob punt 0 yards to the EKU07 blocked by Short,Zavier recovered by MAR Lacey,Demarcus at EKU25 Lacey,Demarcus return 2 yards to the EKU23 (House,Jackson). , Demarcus Lacey returns for 2 yds to the EKU 23
99.3%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 24MISSED FG · 5 plays · 9 yds
Q3 0:54
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the EKU 22
99.6%
+0.4
Q3 0:00
JacQai Long run for 7 yds to the EKU 15
99.6%
0.0
Q4 14:50
Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the EKU 14
99.6%
0.0
Q4 14:13
Timeout Marshall, clock 14:13
99.7%
+0.1
Q4 14:09
Lorcan Quinn 32 yd FG MISSED
99.7%
0.0
EKU · Drive 25PUNT · 4 plays · 5 yds
Q4 14:04
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Dequan Stanley
99.3%
-0.4
Q4 13:59
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Marcus Calwise Jr.
99.3%
0.0
Q4 13:50
Jordyn Potts run for 5 yds to the EKU 25
99.3%
0.0
Q4 13:14
Jacob Baker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demarcus Lacey at the MRSH 33
99.3%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 26PUNT · 5 plays · 7 yds
Q4 13:14
Timeout Marshall, clock 13:14
99.8%
+0.4
Q4 13:05
JacQai Long run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 32
99.8%
0.0
Q4 12:26
JacQai Long run for 5 yds to the MRSH 37
99.8%
0.0
Q4 11:43
JacQai Long run for 3 yds to the MRSH 40
99.8%
0.0
Q4 11:00
Nathan Totten punt for 59 yds
99.8%
0.0
EKU · Drive 27PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q4 10:52
Brady Hensley run for 1 yd to the EKU 2
99.3%
-0.4
Q4 10:20
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the EKU 6
99.3%
0.0
Q4 9:50
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Cameron Hergott
99.3%
0.0
Q4 9:50
Timeout Marshall, clock 09:50
99.3%
0.0
Q4 9:39
Jacob Baker punt for 46 yds , Demarcus Lacey returns for 21 yds to the EKU 31
99.3%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 28FUMBLE · 6 plays · 30 yds
Q4 9:39
Timeout Marshall, clock 09:39
99.7%
+0.5
Q4 9:21
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the EKU 23
99.7%
0.0
Q4 8:56
Zion Turner run for 4 yds to the EKU 19 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 8:18
Michael Allen run for 6 yds to the EKU 13
99.7%
0.0
Q4 7:31
Antwan Roberts run for 1 yd to the EKU 12
99.7%
0.0
Q4 6:46
Zion Turner run for 11 yds to the EKU 7 Zion Turner fumbled, recovered by EKU Charles Ingram V
99.8%
0.0
EKU · Drive 29PUNT · 4 plays · 6 yds
Q4 6:37
Brayden Latham run for 4 yds to the EKU 11
99.3%
-0.5
Q4 6:00
Brayden Latham run for 2 yds to the EKU 13
99.3%
0.0
Q4 5:14
Jordyn Potts pass incomplete to Dequan Stanley
99.3%
0.0
Q4 5:05
Jacob Baker punt for 70 yds , Jr. Sherone White returns for 1 yd to the MRSH 18
99.3%
0.0
MRSH · Drive 30END OF GAME · 11 plays · 45 yds
Q4 5:05
Timeout Marshall, clock 05:05
99.8%
+0.5
Q4 4:51
Judah Price run for 7 yds to the MRSH 25
99.8%
0.0
Q4 4:12
Judah Price run for no gain to the MRSH 25
99.8%
0.0
Q4 3:28
Zion Turner run for 11 yds to the MRSH 36 for a 1ST down
99.8%
0.0
Q4 2:44
Judah Price run for 5 yds to the MRSH 41
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:57
Timeout Marshall, clock 01:57
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:54
Judah Price run for 11 yds to the EKU 48 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:48
Judah Price run for 1 yd to the EKU 47
99.7%
0.0
Q4 1:04
Zion Turner run for 5 yds to the EKU 42
99.7%
0.0
Q4 0:53
Judah Price run for 3 yds to the EKU 39
99.7%
0.0
Q4 0:00
Judah Price run for 2 yds to the EKU 37 for a 1ST down
99.7%
0.0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q1 5:01
Lorcan Quinn kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+16.5
KEY PLAY · Q1 5:01
Timeout Marshall, clock 05:01
-12.2
TD · Q1 5:01
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Lorcan Quinn KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v3Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com