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TXST

Texas State 43 at UTSA 36

UTSA
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:32 · Caile Hogan punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior+13.4Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:35: Jaylen Jenkins 17 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick) — TXST win probability +21.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:36: Robert Henry Jr. 4 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick) — UTSA win probability +18.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:11: Brad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick) — TXST win probability +22.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:22: Robert Henry Jr. 30 Yd Run (Devin McCuin Pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +43.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:08: Beau Sparks 65 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick) — TXST win probability +37.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:29TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14UTSA 4th & 1 at TXST 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    59.4%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:17TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 22, up 4
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:32UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:18TXST 4th & 1 at UTSA 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:38TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:38UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:24TXST 4th & 7 at UTSA 20, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−9.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:57UTSA 4th & 7 at TXST 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:57UTSA 4th & 7 at TXST 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:22UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 48, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.8%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:08UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.1%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:59TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−2.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:01UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:16TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:28UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 9:02UTSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:04TXST Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:37UTSA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:44UTSA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:35TXST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:36UTSA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:11TXST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:22UTSA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    48.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    48.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:08TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2533% → 33%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.3%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 9 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
67.2%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 34Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
67.2%
David Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by David Amador II at the UTSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2SF
5 plays · -27 yds · 1:0167% → 67%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
67.2%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds to the UTSA 30Similar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
67.1%
Owen McCown run for 3 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
67.0%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Houston ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 4
OWN 0
0
66.6%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1134% → 35%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
66.5%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 3 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
66.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
66.2%
Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
65.9%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
65.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the UTSA 44Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-9
65.5%
Brad Jackson pass intercepted Shad Banks Jr. return for 9 yds to the UTSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2966% → 65%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
66.4%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
50
+42
66.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 42 yds to the TXST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
66.4%
Robert Henry Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 9Similar
Q1 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
66.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Dan Dishman for 8 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.4%
A'Marion Peterson run for no gain to the TXST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4935% → 35%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
65.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TXST 2Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+11
65.1%
Brad Jackson run for 11 yds to the TXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
64.7%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 3 yds to the TXST 16Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+5
64.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
64.5%
Brad Jackson run for 1 yd to the TXST 22Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
64.8%
David Nunez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by David Amador II at the UTSA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4064% → 62%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
64.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to David Amador IISimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
64.3%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
50
+4
65.1%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 4 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
65.0%
Robert Henry Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 47Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-5
64.5%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Garth,Jaylen) 5 yards from TXST47 to UTSA48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
63.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry Jr. for no gain to the UTSA 48Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
62.4%
Caile Hogan punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 4:1537% → 45%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
63.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
62.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+2
63.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+73
62.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 73 yds to the UTSA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
60.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTSA 7Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
59.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Blake SmithSimilar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+5
60.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 5 yds to the UTSA 2Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
61.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the UTSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.8%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the UTSA 1Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.6%
Lincoln Pare 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5755% → 66%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
55.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 16 yds to the UTSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
55.9%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Houston ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
55.6%
UTSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
54.8%
Owen McCown run for 14 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
56.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Patrick Overmyer for 2 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+28
55.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Will Henderson III for 13 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the TXST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
56.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to AJ Wilson for 18 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.1%
A'Marion Peterson 1 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1140% → 39%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
60.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
59.6%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+3
59.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the TXST 36Similar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+3
61.3%
David Nunez punt for 47 yds , David Amador II returns for 3 yds to the UTSA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5662% → 60%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.5%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to AJ WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.3%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTSA 24Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
60.4%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
59.7%
Caile Hogan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:2742% → 54%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
58.5%
Jaylen Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 35Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+53
59.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 53 yds to the UTSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
55.3%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the UTSA 9Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
55.1%
Jaylen Jenkins run for no gain to the UTSA 9Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
45.9%
Brad Jackson 9 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1449% → 61%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
48.5%
Owen McCown run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTSA 30Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+11
46.8%
Owen McCown run for 11 yds to the UTSA 41Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
47.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Will Henderson III for 5 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+23
47.5%
Will Henderson III run for 23 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
49.8%
Will Henderson III run for no gain to the TXST 31Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+21
49.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 21 yds to the TXST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
49.3%
Owen McCown pass complete to DJ Allen Jr. for 9 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.2%
DJ Allen Jr. 1 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:2843% → 48%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
56.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 24 yds to the UTSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
54.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 7 yds to the UTSA 42Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
52.9%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+6
53.6%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 6 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
51.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
50.4%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+50
51.9%
Tyler Robles 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1253% → 66%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to David Amador IISimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
66.4%
Robert Henry Jr. 75 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5934% → 57%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
65.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+28
65.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 28 yds to the UTSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
62.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the UTSA 37Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
62.4%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 3 yds to the UTSA 34Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+2
62.5%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTSA 32Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+15
64.3%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad pass incomplete deep middle to Evans,Kylen thrown to UTSA05 broken up by Martin,Davin PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Martin,Davin) 15 yards from UTSA32 to UTSA17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
43.2%
Jaylen Jenkins 17 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4450% → 70%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
49.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 13 yds to the UTSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
51.8%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 3
50
+10
52.8%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun McCown,Owen pass incomplete short left to Allen,DJ thrown to TXST41 PENALTY TXST Holding (Grogan,Canden) 10 yards from UTSA50 to TXST40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
53.0%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
52.7%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 9 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
50.4%
Patrick Overmyer run for 2 yds to the TXST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
52.1%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+22
51.9%
Owen McCown run for 22 yds to the TXST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
51.8%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 3 yds to the TXST 4Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.1%
Robert Henry Jr. 4 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5835% → 48%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
64.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 6 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-10
63.5%
(07:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Burgess Jr.,Torrance rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TXST33 (Wyrick,Jimmy) PENALTY TXST Holding (Lockette,Tellek) 10 yards from TXST26 to TXST16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+5
65.2%
(06:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad pass complete short right to Dawn, Jr.,Chris caught at TXST21, for 5 yards to the TXST21 (Rodgers,Jakevian), out of bounds PENALTY UTSA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TXST16 to TXST21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+56
64.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 56 yds to the UTSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
58.1%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
58.5%
Brad Jackson run for 5 yds to the UTSA 18Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-2
58.9%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 20Similar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
52.4%
Tyler Robles 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:1456% → 55%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
56.1%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 7 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+21
58.5%
Will Henderson III run for 21 yds to the TXST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
60.9%
PENALTY UTSA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TXST46 to UTSA49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+1
57.4%
Will Henderson III run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 14
50
0
56.9%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to AJ WilsonSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 14
50
+7
55.0%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 7 yds to the TXST 43Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
55.1%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
55.1%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:4051% → 79%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
49.3%
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+15
48.9%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad pass incomplete deep left to Evans,Kylen thrown to UTSA27 PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Newell,Elijah) 15 yards from TXST46 to UTSA39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
48.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the UTSA 38Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+2
47.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the UTSA 36Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+12
48.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 12 yds to the UTSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
43.5%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad rush middle for 16 yards gain to the UTSA08 (Banks Jr.,Shad) PENALTY TXST Holding offsetting UTSA Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
43.6%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad pass incomplete deep right to Dawn, Jr.,Chris thrown to UTSA00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Khan,Alpha) 15 yards from UTSA24 to UTSA09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
43.5%
Brad Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTSA 6Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
21.3%
Brad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4128% → 66%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.6%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTSA 26Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
25.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry Jr. for 10 yds to the UTSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
26.5%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 10 yds to the UTSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
28.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Devin McCuin for 5 yds to the TXST 49Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-2
29.6%
Owen McCown sacked by Kenard Snyder for a loss of 2 yards to the UTSA 49Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-1
26.1%
Robert Henry Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTSA 48Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+22
22.5%
Owen McCown pass complete to David Amador II for 22 yds to the TXST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
65.7%
Robert Henry Jr. 30 Yd Run (Devin McCuin Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
22.4%
Beau Sparks 65 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4929% → 28%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
28.9%
Owen McCown pass complete to Will Henderson III for 2 yds to the UTSA 33Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+12
27.4%
Owen McCown run for 12 yds to the UTSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.0%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
29.4%
Will Henderson III run for 4 yds to the UTSA 49Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
30.2%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick OvermyerSimilar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
27.6%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to David Amador IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0282% → 79%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
17.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
17.6%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-5
17.8%
Brad Jackson sacked by Kenny Ozowalu for a loss of 5 yards to the TXST 48Similar
Q4 6:59
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
20.6%
David Nunez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devin McCuin at the UTSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5124% → 18%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
24.3%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 8 yds to the UTSA 23Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+2
24.7%
Robert Henry Jr. run for 2 yds to the UTSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
22.6%
Devin McCuin run for 12 yds to the UTSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
23.4%
Robert Henry Jr. run for no gain to the UTSA 37Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
22.9%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to DJ Allen Jr.Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
21.2%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Robert Henry Jr.Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
18.4%
Caile Hogan punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3887% → 89%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
12.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
11.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 26Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+2
10.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 2 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
11.4%
David Nunez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Devin McCuin at the UTSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4315% → 13%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
15.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 3 yds to the UTSA 35Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+7
14.2%
Owen McCown pass complete to Robert Henry Jr. for 7 yds to the UTSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
15.4%
Owen McCown pass complete to Houston Thomas for 5 yds to the UTSA 47Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
15.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Devin McCuinSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
14.8%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Patrick OvermyerSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
13.2%
Owen McCown pass incomplete to Houston ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:2195% → 96%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-9
4.6%
Brad Jackson run for a loss of 9 yards to the TXST 44Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 19
OWN 44
-3
4.8%
B. Jackson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 22
OWN 41
-4
4.2%
B. Jackson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:22
Robert Henry Jr. 30 Yd Run (Devin McCuin Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
+43.1
TD · Q4 10:08
Beau Sparks 65 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)
-37.1
TD · Q4 14:11
Brad Jackson 6 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)
-22.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com