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JKST

Jackson State 20 at Southern Miss 38

USM
2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadJKST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreJKST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:43 · Reed Harradine 54 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior+19.1Home team on offense+8.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Score differential+2.2Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:23: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 8 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK) — USM win probability +5.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:16: Emari Matthews run for 21 yds for a TD (Gerardo Baeza KICK) — JKST win probability +4.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: JKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:29: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 15 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK) — USM win probability +6.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:29: Timeout Southern Miss, clock 05:29 — JKST win probability +3.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: JKST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:24: Timeout Southern Miss, clock 13:24 — USM win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6JKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:06JKST 4th & 7 at JKST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:07JKST 4th & 8 at JKST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:30USM 4th & 4 at JKST 27, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:45JKST 4th & 12 at USM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:44USM 4th & 8 at JKST 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:28JKST 4th & 10 at JKST 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:55USM 4th & 22 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:09JKST 4th & 1 at JKST 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43USM 4th & 6 at JKST 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    42% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:31USM 4th & 12 at JKST 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:17JKST 4th & 20 at JKST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:45JKST 4th & 10 at JKST 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:24JKST 4th & 10 at USM 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:26USM 4th & 9 at USM 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4JKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:23USM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:16JKST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:29USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:54USM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:59USM Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:32JKST Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JKSTDrive 1PUNT TD
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:4616% → 16%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.3%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the JKST 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
84.2%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the JKST 34Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
84.0%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the JKST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
83.8%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Joanes FortilienSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
83.8%
Ahmad Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the JKST 34Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+4
83.7%
JaCobian Morgan run for 4 yds to the JKST 38Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+30
84.1%
Donovan Warren punt blocked by Ahmere Foster blocked by Ahmere Foster for a TD , Zach Ruffin returns for 30 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:2916% → 16%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
84.0%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Ahmad Miller for no gain to the JKST 13Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-5
84.0%
PENALTY JSU False Start (Townes-Blue,D'Andre) 5 yards from JSU13 to JSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 15
OWN 8
+11
84.0%
Ahmad Miller run for 11 yds to the JKST 19Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+3
84.0%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Nate Rembert for 3 yds to the JKST 22Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+5
84.0%
(09:59) Warren,Donovan punt 31 yards to the USM47 Metcalf,Elijah return 2 yards to the USM49 (Hargon,J'Cori) PENALTY USM Running Into The Kicker (Lewis,Brodarius) 5 yards from JSU22 to JSU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
83.7%
Nate Rembert run for 2 yds to the JKST 29Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
83.8%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Nate RembertSimilar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
83.9%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Kobe PaulSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
84.0%
Kye Collins punt for 9 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3MISSED FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1884% → 86%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
84.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 6 yds to the JKST 27Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
85.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
85.5%
Reed Harradine 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:3716% → 18%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
83.8%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 14 yds to the JKST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
83.5%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the JKST 43Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+10
83.5%
Ahmad Miller run for 10 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
83.2%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Nate Rembert for 20 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
82.5%
Emari Matthews run for 3 yds to the USM 24Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
82.7%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Ja'Naylon Dupree for 2 yds to the USM 22Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-7
82.9%
JaCobian Morgan sacked by Josh Battle for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 29Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+46
82.2%
Gerardo Baeza 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
15 plays · 87 yds · 4:0982% → 86%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
81.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 10 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
81.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 11 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
81.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 15 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
81.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 8 yds to the JKST 43Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
81.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the JKST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
81.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the JKST 37Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
81.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+10
80.8%
(02:09) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short left to Pittman,Jeffery thrown to JSU27 PENALTY JSU Holding (Hawkins,Shamar) 10 yards from JSU37 to JSU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
81.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the JKST 27Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
81.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 4 yds to the JKST 23Similar
Q1 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+9
80.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 9 yds to the JKST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
81.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the JKST 8Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
86.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 8 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4415% → 21%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
85.1%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the JKST 23Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+47
85.2%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 47 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
84.1%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Kobe Paul for 5 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
84.1%
JaCobian Morgan run for 4 yds to the USM 21Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+21
79.4%
Emari Matthews run for 21 yds for a TD (Gerardo Baeza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2079% → 85%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Matt Jones for 8 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
79.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 8 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+40
80.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 40 yds to the JKST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
80.6%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the JKST 19Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
80.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the JKST 17Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
82.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Matt JonesSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
85.3%
Reed Harradine 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1617% → 15%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
83.4%
PENALTY JSU False Start (Smith,Almetris) 5 yards from JSU35 to JSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+3
83.6%
Ahmad Miller run for 3 yds to the JKST 33Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+2
84.5%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the JKST 35Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
85.0%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Joanes FortilienSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+13
85.2%
Donovan Warren punt for 38 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 13 yds to the USM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 3:2785% → 85%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
84.7%
Robert Briggs run for 1 yd to the USM 41Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+9
84.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+2
84.9%
Robert Briggs run for 2 yds to the JKST 48Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
86.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Robert Briggs for no gain to the JKST 48Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+10
86.0%
(07:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep right to Brown,Bralon thrown to JSU22 broken up by Rogers,Khamauri PENALTY JSU Holding (Rogers,Khamauri) 10 yards from JSU48 to JSU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
86.7%
Robert Briggs run for a loss of 2 yards to the JKST 40Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+3
86.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the JKST 37Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-13
86.2%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Quincy Ivory for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 22
50
0
85.2%
Jack Murley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 10INT
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:1215% → 20%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
85.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 5 yds to the JKST 15Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
85.2%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the JKST 18Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 2
OWN 18
-5
85.7%
PENALTY JSU False Start (Barton,Mason) 5 yards from JSU18 to JSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+6
85.7%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Ja'Naylon Dupree for 6 yds to the JKST 19Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+4
86.6%
Emari Matthews run for 4 yds to the JKST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
85.8%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the JKST 25Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+19
85.8%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Nate Rembert for 19 yds to the JKST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
84.9%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 13 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
84.1%
Jameel Gardner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 44Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+4
85.3%
JaCobian Morgan run for 4 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-20
79.8%
Parker Stofa pass intercepted Ahmere Foster return for 20 yds to the USM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:4980% → 79%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
80.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 15 yds to the JKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
81.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the JKST 38Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
79.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 2 yds to the JKST 36Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
79.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+54
78.5%
Reed Harradine 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:3829% → 25%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
71.3%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Ja'Naylon DupreeSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-8
74.9%
JaCobian Morgan sacked by Garrick Ponder for a loss of 8 yards to the JKST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:1183% → 81%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
83.2%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass complete short middle to Metcalf,Elijah caught at USM36, for 9 yards to the USM47 (Pulliam,Reid), out of bounds PENALTY USM Holding (Morris,Kadinn) 10 yards from USM38 to USM28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
82.3%
(14:34) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete deep left to Chester,Carl thrown to JSU35 PENALTY JSU Offside 5 yards from USM28 to USM33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+11
82.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 11 yds to the USM 44Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+16
83.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 16 yds to the JKST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
83.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the JKST 38Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
83.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kadinn MorrisSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-4
83.1%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Ashton Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the JKST 42Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
80.9%
Jack Murley punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 4:0319% → 18%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
81.4%
Ahmad Miller run for no gain to the JKST 5Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+9
81.6%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 9 yds to the JKST 14Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
81.9%
Ahmad Miller run for 1 yd to the JKST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
81.0%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Miller,Ahmad rush right for 10 yards gain to the JSU25 (Myrick,Corey; Montgomery,Michael) PENALTY JSU Holding (Riley, Jr.,Jency) 7 yards from JSU15 to JSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+18
81.2%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Kobe Paul for 18 yds to the JKST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
80.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the JKST 28Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+8
80.4%
Donerio Davenport run for 8 yds to the JKST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
79.7%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Kobe PaulSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
80.1%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Miller,Ahmad rush right for 3 yards gain to the JSU39 (Jones,Chris ; Montgomery,Michael) PENALTY JSU Holding (Villanueva,Isaiah) 10 yards from JSU36 to JSU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
81.1%
JaCobian Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 20
OWN 26
0
81.8%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Ja'Naylon DupreeSimilar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+20
82.2%
Donovan Warren punt for 39 yds , Elijah Metcalf returns for 20 yds to the JKST 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:4085% → 92%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
84.9%
Robert Briggs run for 3 yds to the JKST 42Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+17
84.3%
Braylon Braxton run for 17 yds to the JKST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
85.3%
Robert Briggs run for 2 yds to the JKST 23Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
85.3%
Robert Briggs run for 9 yds to the JKST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
85.3%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 1 yard to the JKST 15Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
92.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 15 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3711% → 9%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the JKST 29Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
88.7%
Travis Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the JKST 32Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-7
88.8%
JaCobian Morgan run for a loss of 7 yards to the JKST 25Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Donovan Warren punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:4292% → 100%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
92.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 8 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
92.8%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the USM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
94.7%
Jackson State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the JKST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Carl ChesterSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
95.9%
Matt Jones run for 7 yds to the JKST 31Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
96.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Bralon BrownSimilar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+5
95.9%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short middle to Morris,Kadinn thrown to JSU18 PENALTY JSU Offside (Taylor,Ashton) 5 yards from JSU31 to JSU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Kadinn MorrisSimilar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
96.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 9 yds to the JKST 17Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
97.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the JKST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
97.9%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the JKST 10Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kadinn Morris for 10 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 18FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:062% → 4%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.4%
Emari Matthews run for 1 yd to the USM 22Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
98.6%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Kobe PaulSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-1
98.8%
JaCobian Morgan sacked by Mathis Haygood for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 23Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
95.8%
Gerardo Baeza 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 4 yds to the USM 33Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+23
99.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Carl Chester for 23 yds to the JKST 44 for a 1ST down Jackson State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeremiah Williams) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the JKST 40Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+23
99.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 23 yds to the JKST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the JKST 15Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Robert Briggs run for 15 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:031% → 2%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.4%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Nate Rembert for 22 yds to the JKST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.3%
Ahmad Miller run for no gain to the JKST 47Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
99.3%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Ja'Naylon Dupree for 10 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.4%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Nate RembertSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.4%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 1 yd to the USM 42Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+16
99.5%
JaCobian Morgan run for 16 yds to the USM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
99.4%
Donerio Davenport run for 6 yds to the USM 20Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+9
99.4%
JaCobian Morgan run for 9 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.4%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Kobe PaulSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.4%
JaCobian Morgan pass complete to Jameel Gardner Jr. for 3 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
98.1%
Ahmad Miller run for 8 yds for a TD (Gerardo Baeza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
99.7%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Jermane Hayes for 11 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.7%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-1
99.7%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 42Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Robert Briggs run for no gain to the USM 42Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+13
99.7%
Jack Murley punt for 42 yds , Jabari Jones returns for 13 yds to the JKST 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 22INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
98.7%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 2 yards to the JKST 27Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+24
98.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 9 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Khalil Foster) to the USM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.8%
JaCobian Morgan pass incomplete to Ja'Naylon DupreeSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
98.8%
Ahmad Miller run for 2 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-23
98.8%
JaCobian Morgan pass intercepted MaLik Caswell return for 23 yds to the JKST 40Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 8
OPP 47
-23
98.8%
JaCobian Morgan pass intercepted MaLik Caswell return for 23 yds to the JKST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
99.6%
John White pass complete to Cace Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the JKST 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+2
99.6%
Jaylin Carter run for 2 yds to the JKST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:29
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Micah Davis for 15 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
+6.8
TD · Q1 0:23
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Bralon Brown for 8 yds for a TD (Reed Harradine KICK)
+5
TD · Q2 13:16
Emari Matthews run for 21 yds for a TD (Gerardo Baeza KICK)
-4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com