2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:07 · Jake Retzlaff run for 9 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:52: Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK) — TULN win probability +6.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:01: Zuberi Mobley run for 28 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin PAT MISSED) — TULN win probability +7.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:27: Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion) — USA win probability +11.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:59: Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USA win probability +25.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 0:59: Timeout Tulane, clock 00:59 — TULN win probability +19.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 9:19TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snapGo for it75.3%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.3%average punt
- Q1 3:20USA 4th & 4 at USA 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snapGo for it29.6%−0.348% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q2 12:20USA 4th & 3 at TULN 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.5%52% to convertField goal29.8%−0.828% to makePunt30.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 12:20USA 4th & 3 at TULN 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.5%52% to convertField goal29.8%−0.828% to makePunt30.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:07TULN 4th & 2 at USA 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt70.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 5:03USA 4th & 2 at USA 33, down 7Close callPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it24.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:49TULN 4th & 8 at USA 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.6%−0.434% to convertField goalTheir call78.0%51% to makePunt76.5%−1.5average punt
- Q3 8:51TULN 4th & 7 at USA 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snapGo for it77.9%−0.735% to convertField goalTheir call78.6%81% to makePunt72.7%−5.9average punt
- Q3 4:31USA 4th & 1 at TULN 18, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.9%71% to convertField goal16.6%−1.479% to makePunt12.6%−5.4average punt
- Q3 3:17TULN 4th & 19 at TULN 13, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snapGo for it85.8%−3.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%average punt
- Q4 14:57USA 4th & 10 at TULN 10, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.824% to convertField goalTheir call15.5%88% to makePunt10.8%−4.7average punt
- Q4 7:46USA 4th & 1 at USA 46, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.4%−1.2average punt
- Q4 5:58USA 4th & 5 at TULN 47, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.4%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:21TULN 4th & 8 at midfield, up 8Close callPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it92.8%34% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:00TULN 4th & 25 at TULN 41, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it79.3%−10.07% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:48USA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.2%97% to makeGo for two23.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:11USA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.0%97% to makeGo for two29.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:11TULN Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:24TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.4%97% to makeGo for two71.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:52TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.3%97% to makeGo for two75.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:01TULN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call94.7%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:27USA Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick11.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call10.5%−0.745% to convert
- Q4 0:59USA Touchdown, down 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick23.8%−5.497% to makeGo for twoTheir call29.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSADrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0519% → 22%
Q1 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+11
19.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 11 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
20.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for no gain to the TULN 29Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
20.8%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Phillips,Keenan rush middle for 0 yards to the TUL15, End Of Play PENALTY TUL Illegal Substitution 5 yards from TUL15 to TUL10. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1878% → 77%
Q1 9:19
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
23.3%
Alec Clark punt for 59 yds , Devin Voisin returns for 7 yds to the USA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3FUMBLE2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
23.7%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 3 yds Anthony Eager fumbled, recovered by TULN Santana HopperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5277% → 77%
Q1 8:11
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+19
23.5%
Jake Retzlaff run for 19 yds to the USA 23 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by USA Jayvon HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD4 plays · 77 yds · 0:5426% → 31%
TULNDrive 6TD9 plays · 55 yds · 2:4573% → 74%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
27.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 20 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
26.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 7 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
26.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Johnny Pascuzzi for 5 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4730% → 30%
Q1 3:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
29.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD7 plays · 42 yds · 2:4873% → 76%
USADrive 9DOWNS9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4027% → 29%
Q2 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
26.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 2 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+26
26.3%
Bishop Davenport run for 11 yds to the USA 35 for a 1ST down Tulane Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Javion White) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD11 plays · 57 yds · 5:2274% → 80%
USADrive 11PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4324% → 25%
TULNDrive 12FG13 plays · 53 yds · 4:0173% → 75%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
27.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 20 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
25.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Zycarl Lewis Jr. for 4 yds to the TULN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 7
50
+16
23.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 16 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-5
23.7%
(01:23) PENALTY TUL False Start (Reid,Justyn) 5 yards from USA28 to USA33. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4320% → 20%
TULNDrive 14FG15 plays · 61 yds · 5:5379% → 85%
Q3 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+7
19.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Miller for 7 yds to the USA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-10
18.9%
(09:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Retzlaff,Jake pass incomplete short left to Gordon,Javin thrown to USA25 QB hurried by Johnson,Stephen PENALTY TUL Holding (Hollifield,Jack) 10 yards from USA20 to USA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 21
OPP 30
+14
19.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Shazz Preston for 14 yds to the USA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FUMBLE12 plays · 53 yds · 4:1417% → 17%
TULNDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0989% → 89%
USADrive 17FG13 plays · 40 yds · 3:0916% → 17%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
50
+4
15.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 4 yds to the TULN 46Similar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
16.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 23 yds to the TULN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.6%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Martin,PJ rush middle for 0 yards to the TUL01 (Despanie,Bailey; Howard,Sam) PENALTY TUL Illegal Substitution. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
15.6%
PENALTY USA False Start (Davis,Jordan) 5 yards from TUL01 to TUL06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
15.1%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game (Davenport,Bishop) 5 yards from TUL05 to TUL10. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD12 plays · 78 yds · 4:4483% → 96%
Q4 13:59
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+9
18.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 9 yds to the TULN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+15
14.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 15 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+10
12.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the USA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
11.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Johnny Pascuzzi for 10 yds to the USA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
4.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for 28 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD14 plays · 75 yds · 4:273% → 13%
Q4 6:31
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+7
2.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 7 yds to the TULN 47Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 5
OPP 47
+12
3.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 12 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+34
1.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 34 yds to the TULN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 2:4893% → 95%
Q4 2:28
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
4.4%
PENALTY TUL Delay Of Game (Retzlaff,Jake) 5 yards from USA45 to USA50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD11 plays · 80 yds · 1:165% → 30%
Q4 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
5.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass intercepted by Tchienchou,Jack at USA32, End Of Play PENALTY TUL Roughing The Passer 15 yards from USA21 to USA36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
4.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 9 yds to the USA 45Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+11
5.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 11 yds to the TULN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
5.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 3 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
4.0%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Davenport,Bishop pass incomplete short middle to Scott,Jeremy thrown to TUL30 PENALTY TUL Holding declined TUL Roughing The Passer (Henderson,Gerrod) 15 yards from TUL41 to TUL26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
30.0%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22PUNT8 plays · -15 yds · 0:5490% → 93%
Q4 0:00
4TH & 25
OWN 41
+35
6.6%
Alec Clark punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USA 44 , Devin Voisin returns for 35 yds to the USA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:59
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 26 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+25.9
TD · Q4 0:59
Timeout Tulane, clock 00:59
-19.9
TD · Q4 5:27
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd for a TD (B. Davenport Run For Two-point Conversion)
+11.2