2025 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2025 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:55 · Gilbert Brown punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CCU 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 10:02: Tad Hudson run for 4 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK) — CCU win probability +11.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 9:54: Brandon Musch run for 2 yds to the CHSO 29 — CHSO win probability +4.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:41: Timeout Coastal Carolina, clock 07:41 — CCU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:04: Zolten Osborne pass incomplete to Chris Rhone — CHSO win probability +3.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:46: Kneel down by Coastal Carolina at CCU43 for loss of 2 yards. — CCU win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CHSO made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 12:12CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%average punt
- Q1 9:49CHSO 4th & 14 at CHSO 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q1 5:26CHSO 4th & 1 at CHSO 16, tiedClose callPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:25CCU 4th & 17 at CCU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it92.4%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.6%average punt
- Q1 1:55CHSO 4th & 9 at CHSO 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q2 11:12CCU 4th & 3 at CHSO 3, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%−0.293% to makePunt89.3%−1.3average punt
- Q2 10:09CHSO 4th & 11 at CHSO 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.7%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q2 3:19CHSO 4th & 7 at CCU 42, down 3Close callPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.4%37% to convertField goal12.0%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call12.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:45CCU 4th & 7 at CCU 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snapGo for it86.2%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.5%average punt
- Q3 12:19CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 36, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.3%−1.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.3%average punt
- Q3 4:21CHSO 4th & 1 at CCU 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.5%70% to convertField goal16.4%−4.130% to makePunt17.2%−3.3average punt
- Q3 2:05CHSO 4th & 13 at CCU 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.2%−1.121% to convertField goal18.5%−0.830% to makePuntTheir call19.3%average punt
- Q4 12:04CCU 4th & 1 at CHSO 34, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.2%71% to convertField goal75.9%−5.347% to makePunt74.5%−6.7average punt
- Q4 7:41CHSO 4th & 3 at CHSO 34, down 10Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:11CCU 4th & 2 at CHSO 11, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.5%56% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%−0.387% to makePunt93.6%−1.9average punt
- Q4 0:46CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 9, down 13Close callPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 10:02CCU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCCUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 2:4897% → 96%
Q1 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
96.7%
MJ Morris pass complete to Robby Washington for 1 yd to the CCU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 2PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:234% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3INT8 plays · 46 yds · 2:0896% → 96%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
96.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Jevon rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CCU31 (Dixon,Avery) PENALTY CCU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CCU26 to CCU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
96.0%
MJ Morris pass complete to Ja'Vin Simpkins for no gain to the CCU 21Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+5
95.9%
PENALTY CSU Offside (McKinzie,Malik) 5 yards from CCU27 to CCU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+25
95.9%
MJ Morris pass complete to Malick Meiga for 10 yds to the CHSO 42 for a 1ST down Charleston Southern Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jamil Bishop) to the CHSO 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 4PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:154% → 5%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
95.6%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Chris Rhone for no gain to the CHSO 7Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+9
95.6%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Chris Rhone for 9 yds to the CHSO 16Similar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
95.0%
Gilbert Brown punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bryson Graves at the CHSO 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 2:0195% → 94%
Q1 5:26
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-10
95.1%
MJ Morris sacked by David Portu for a loss of 10 yards to the CCU 44 MJ Morris fumbled, recovered by CCU Nick Del Grande , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 17
OWN 44
+13
94.3%
Emile Sebafundi punt for 43 yds , Quay Kindell returns for 13 yds to the CHSO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 6PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:306% → 6%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
94.4%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Chris Rhone for 3 yds to the CHSO 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7FG18 plays · 57 yds · 5:4394% → 93%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
94.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Dominic Knicely for 6 yds to the CCU 46Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
94.4%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bryson Graves for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
94.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bryson Graves for 8 yds to the CHSO 9Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
93.3%
Ja'Vin Simpkins run for 2 yds to the CHSO 4 Ja'Vin Simpkins fumbled, recovered by CCU Ja'Vin SimpkinsSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
93.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Morris,MJ pass incomplete short middle to Wright,Cameron thrown to CSU00 broken up by Paulk,Anthony PENALTY CCU Holding 10 yards from CSU04 to CSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 8PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 1:037% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9INT5 plays · 34 yds · 2:1093% → 93%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
93.2%
MJ Morris pass complete to Robby Washington for 9 yds to the CHSO 46Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
93.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Karmello English for 2 yds to the CHSO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
93.3%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bryson Graves for 21 yds to the CHSO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 10PUNT11 plays · 55 yds · 4:407% → 9%
Q2 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+15
92.6%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jacob Robinson) to the CHSO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
91.8%
Zolten Osborne sacked by Zeke Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the CCU 49Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
90.9%
Gilbert Brown punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Lionell Whitaker at the CCU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3491% → 90%
Q2 3:19
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+42
91.1%
MJ Morris pass complete to Robby Washington for 42 yds to the CHSO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 12INT6 plays · 31 yds · 1:289% → 11%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
91.3%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Chris Rhone for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
50
-5
90.4%
PENALTY CSU False Start (Sorensen,Colin) 5 yards from CCU50 to CSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
91.0%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Brandon Musch for 1 yd to the CHSO 46Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+15
91.4%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Luke Murphy) to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1791% → 90%
CHSODrive 14PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4112% → 12%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
88.4%
Zolten Osborne pass complete to Jamil Bishop for 9 yds to the CHSO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15INT12 plays · 41 yds · 4:3588% → 86%
Q3 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
87.8%
MJ Morris pass complete to Bryson Graves for 10 yds to the CCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
88.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Knicely,Dominic rush right for 8 yards gain to the CCU49 (Carter,Anthony; Waters,Justin) PENALTY CCU Holding (Hanson,Joseph) 10 yards from CCU41 to CCU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
89.4%
Charleston Southern Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the CHSO 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
89.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Edwards,Jevon rush left for 1 yard gain to the CSU06 (Cook,Knai) PENALTY CCU Holding (Edwards,Heston) 10 yards from CSU07 to CSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
-10
88.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Knicely,Dominic rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CSU13 (Cook,Knai) PENALTY CCU Holding (Edwards,Heston) 10 yards from CSU18 to CSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 16PUNT13 plays · 54 yds · 5:3915% → 19%
CCUDrive 17TD20 plays · 83 yds · 7:0381% → 97%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
83.0%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Robby Washington for 3 yds to the CHSO 40Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+5
80.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hudson,Tad pass incomplete short right to Graves,Bryson thrown to CSU25 PENALTY CSU Offside 5 yards from CSU39 to CSU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
83.2%
Tad Hudson pass complete to Bryson Graves for 18 yds to the CHSO 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
86.3%
Charleston Southern Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the CHSO 8Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+4
85.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Knicely,Dominic rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CSU04 (Bowen,Mylan) PENALTY CSU Offside 4 yards from CSU08 to CSU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 18PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:138% → 6%
CCUDrive 19FG21 plays · 75 yds · 6:3098% → 99%
CHSODrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:184% → 4%
Q4 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
95.8%
Gilbert Brown punt for 46 yds , Lionell Whitaker returns for no gain to the CCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:02
Tad Hudson run for 4 yds for a TD (Kian Afrookhteh KICK)
+11.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:54
Brandon Musch run for 2 yds to the CHSO 29
-4.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:41
Timeout Coastal Carolina, clock 07:41
+4.1