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NICH

Nicholls 20 at Troy 38

TROY
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:00 · Evan Crenshaw punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NICH 49 , Solo Lewis returns for 32 yds to the NICH 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior+30.3Home team on offense−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:01: Goose Crowder pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 27 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +10.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:03: Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 58 yds for a TD (Gabriel Showalter KICK) — NICH win probability +15.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:09: Goose Crowder run for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +25.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:13: Goose Crowder pass complete to Tray Taylor for 28 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +31.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:08: Tae Meadows run for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +21.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:58TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:03TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:00NICH 4th & 4 at NICH 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:00TROY 4th & 22 at TROY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:42NICH 4th & 14 at TROY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:49TROY 4th & 1 at NICH 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−1.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:36TROY 4th & 4 at NICH 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−10.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:42NICH 4th & 11 at NICH 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−3.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:59TROY 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.5%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:41NICH 4th & 5 at TROY 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−20.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:09NICH 4th & 12 at NICH 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:27NICH 4th & 15 at NICH 44, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:14NICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:01TROY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:03NICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:09TROY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:13TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:08TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:56TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 3:5188% → 87%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
88.4%
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
88.2%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 7 yds to the TROY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
88.1%
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
88.0%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the TROY 42Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+5
87.9%
Tae Meadows run for 5 yds to the TROY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
87.7%
Goose Crowder sacked by Rasheed Lovelace for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 46Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
87.5%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-5
87.4%
(11:13) PENALTY TROY False Start (Langlo,Garner) 5 yards from TROY46 to TROY41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
87.4%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Mojo DortchSimilar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
87.2%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:2413% → 14%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
87.3%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 4 yds to the NICH 6Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+1
87.2%
Jordan Poole run for 1 yd to the NICH 7Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+9
87.0%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Christian McNees for 9 yds to the NICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
86.7%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 6 yds to the NICH 22Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+10
86.4%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Solo Lewis for 10 yds to the NICH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.3%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 3 yds to the NICH 35Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
86.0%
(07:30) Shotgun Hogan,Deuce pass incomplete deep left to LeBlanc,Cohen thrown to TROY34 PENALTY TROY Pass Interference (White,Jaquez) 15 yards from NIC35 to NIC50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
50
0
85.7%
Deuce Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McNeesSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
50
-10
85.7%
(07:21) Brock Jr.,Miequle rush right for 0 yards to the NIC50 (Cattledge,Steven) PENALTY NIC Holding (Bernard,Ryan) 10 yards from NIC50 to NIC40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
85.8%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for no gain to the NICH 40Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 20
OWN 40
-11
85.7%
Deuce Hogan sacked by Donnie Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the NICH 29Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 31
OWN 29
0
85.8%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1685% → 84%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
85.4%
Jordan Lovett run for 1 yd to the TROY 17Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+2
85.2%
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
84.7%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to DJ EppsSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
84.4%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5215% → 16%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
84.6%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 5 yds to the NICH 35Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
84.1%
Tamaj Hoffman run for no gain to the NICH 35Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+1
83.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 1 yd to the NICH 36Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
83.9%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:5384% → 83%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.4%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
84.2%
Tae Meadows run for 12 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
84.5%
(00:37) Shotgun Crowder,Goose rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TROY47 (Shaheen,Hayden) PENALTY TROY Personal Foul (Bowling,Paul) 15 yards from TROY41 to TROY26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+1
83.7%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the TROY 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 27
0
83.6%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Ethan ConnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 27
+2
83.2%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 22
OWN 29
+32
82.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NICH 49 , Solo Lewis returns for 32 yds to the NICH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 6FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:1819% → 20%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
81.4%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Jordan Smith for 12 yds to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
80.8%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 2 yds to the TROY 26Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-5
81.0%
PENALTY NIC False Start (Scott,Sameij) 5 yards from TROY26 to TROY31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 17
OPP 31
+2
81.4%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 2 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+1
82.0%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Solo Lewis for 1 yd to the TROY 28Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
79.9%
Gabriel Showalter 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:4778% → 77%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
78.3%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the TROY 35Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
78.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 7 yds to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
79.3%
Jordan Lovett run for 4 yds to the TROY 46Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
79.6%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 2 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
79.4%
DJ Epps run for 8 yds to the NICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
80.1%
Tae Meadows run for 4 yds to the NICH 40Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
80.1%
Goose Crowder run for 4 yds to the NICH 36Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
79.8%
Jarris Williams run for 1 yd to the NICH 35Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
77.2%
Tae Meadows run for no gain to the NICH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 8TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:3525% → 36%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
74.7%
Troy Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TROY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
73.4%
Troy Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (TJ Thompson) to the TROY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
72.5%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Scrappy Osby for 6 yds to the TROY 18Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
72.5%
Jordan Poole run for 2 yds to the TROY 16Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
73.6%
Deuce Hogan run for 3 yds to the TROY 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
72.5%
PENALTY NIC False Start (Bernard,Ryan) 5 yards from TROY13 to TROY18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+2
72.7%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Pax Hughes for 2 yds to the TROY 16Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+13
70.1%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Solo Lewis for 13 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.5%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Gabriel Showalter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 1:0865% → 74%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
64.5%
Goose Crowder run for 9 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+10
63.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 10 yds to the TROY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
64.4%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Tae Meadows for 12 yds to the NICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
64.8%
Tae Meadows run for 6 yds to the NICH 33Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
66.2%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Tray TaylorSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
64.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 5 yds to the NICH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
65.6%
Jordan Lovett run for 1 yd to the NICH 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
63.7%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+27
74.3%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Roman Mothershed for 27 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0127% → 27%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.4%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Scrappy Osby for a loss of 1 yard to the NICH 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
72.7%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 3 yds to the NICH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5730% → 47%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.5%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Solo Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the NICH 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
70.7%
PENALTY NIC False Start (Scott,Sameij) 5 yards from NIC24 to NIC19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
70.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Karaaz Johnson for 5 yds to the NICH 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
71.8%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Scrappy Osby for 17 yds to the NICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
68.8%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 1 yd to the NICH 42Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+58
53.4%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 58 yds for a TD (Gabriel Showalter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 6:2354% → 54%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
53.9%
Tae Meadows run for 12 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
55.3%
Goose Crowder run for 9 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
56.3%
Tae Meadows run for 7 yds to the NICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
56.8%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 6 yds to the NICH 38Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+10
56.8%
Jordan Lovett run for 10 yds to the NICH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
58.2%
Tae Meadows run for 9 yds to the NICH 19Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+7
58.1%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the NICH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
58.1%
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the NICH 10Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
58.1%
Jordan Lovett run for 2 yds to the NICH 8Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+2
56.7%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the NICH 6Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
54.0%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5452% → 53%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.6%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 3 yds to the NICH 28Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
47.1%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Scrappy Osby for 5 yds to the NICH 33Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-9
46.7%
Deuce Hogan sacked by Devin Lafayette for a loss of 9 yards to the NICH 24Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
47.2%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Peyton Higgins at the TROY 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:3347% → 69%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.5%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
45.0%
Jordan Lovett run for 6 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+2
46.5%
Tae Meadows run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 2
50
+3
45.3%
Goose Crowder run for 3 yds to the NICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
48.1%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Mojo Dortch for 9 yds to the NICH 38Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
48.2%
Goose Crowder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+14
47.7%
Tae Meadows run for 14 yds to the NICH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
43.8%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Jordan Lovett for 5 yds to the NICH 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
43.8%
Goose Crowder run for 3 yds to the NICH 16Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+16
68.7%
Goose Crowder run for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 15FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:2834% → 47%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
66.0%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 31 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
61.4%
Tamaj Hoffman run for 3 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+15
62.0%
Shotgun Hogan,Deuce pass incomplete deep left to Johnson,Karaaz thrown to TROY10 PENALTY TROY Pass Interference (Carter,Rondell) 15 yards from TROY41 to TROY26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
59.5%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for 20 yds to the TROY 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
59.4%
Jordan Poole run for 1 yd to the TROY 5Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.4%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
59.0%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
53.5%
Gabriel Showalter 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:2353% → 83%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
52.7%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
52.2%
Jordan Lovett run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 33Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+29
49.9%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Peyton Higgins for 14 yds to the NICH 47 for a 1ST down Nicholls Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Joe Mason) to the NICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
57.8%
Goose Crowder pass incomplete to Roman MothershedSimilar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
57.4%
Tae Meadows run for 9 yds to the NICH 29Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
51.1%
Tae Meadows run for 1 yd to the NICH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
83.1%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Tray Taylor for 28 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 17INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5620% → 23%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.0%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Scrappy Osby for 9 yds to the NICH 34Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
77.6%
Miequle Brock Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NICH 33Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
79.8%
Jordan Poole run for 4 yds to the NICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
76.6%
Deuce Hogan pass intercepted Jaquez White return for 1 yd to the NICH 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
98.5%
Tae Meadows run for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:594% → 3%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.1%
Deuce Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McNeesSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.1%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Everett Hunter for 8 yds to the NICH 33Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
96.0%
PENALTY NIC False Start (Hunter,Everett) 5 yards from NIC33 to NIC28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
96.2%
Deuce Hogan sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the NICH 23Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Pharrell Harewood punt for 21 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1399% → 100%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
98.7%
Tae Meadows run for 11 yds to the NICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
98.7%
Tae Meadows run for 27 yds to the NICH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
98.7%
Tae Meadows run for a loss of 3 yards to the NICH 9Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.1%
DJ Epps run for 4 yds to the NICH 5Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Goose Crowder pass complete to Ethan Conner for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
PENALTY TROY Offside (Davis,Elijah) 5 yards from NIC25 to NIC30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+19
99.6%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 19 yds to the NICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.6%
Deuce Hogan pass incomplete to Christian McNeesSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.6%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Brian McQuaide for 2 yds to the TROY 49Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-7
99.6%
Deuce Hogan sacked by Luis Medina for a loss of 7 yards to the NICH 44Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+3
99.7%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Miequle Brock Jr. for 3 yds to the NICH 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.7%
G. Crowder takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:13
Goose Crowder pass complete to Tray Taylor for 28 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+31.9
TD · Q4 14:09
Goose Crowder run for 16 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+25
TD · Q4 6:08
Tae Meadows run for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+21.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com