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EMU

Eastern Michigan 27 at Texas State 52

TXST
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:16 · Mitchell Tomasek punt for 63 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+15.2Home team on offense+12.8Score differential+4.5Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:41: Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 15 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK) — TXST win probability +1.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:33: Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK) — EMU win probability +4.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:56: Lincoln Pare 22 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick) — TXST win probability +4.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:56: PENALTY TXST False Start (Schultz,Cameron) 5 yards from EMU03 to EMU08. NO PLAY. (Tyler Robles KICK) — TXST win probability +2.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:19: Beau Sparks 5 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick) — TXST win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 8:47EMU 4th & 7 at TXST 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:14EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57TXST 4th & 7 at EMU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:39TXST 4th & 4 at EMU 7, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:56EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:56EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:16EMU 4th & 2 at TXST 20, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:16EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:42EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:38EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:00TXST 4th & 3 at EMU 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:29EMU 4th & 9 at TXST 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:55EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 44, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:19TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:41TXST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:33EMU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:56TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:19TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:19TXST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:02TXST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:41EMU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3381% → 81%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.3%
(15:00) Shotgun Pare,Lincoln rush right for 7 yards gain to the TXST32 (Deener,Tyrelle) PENALTY EMU Illegal Substitution (Miles,Sterling) 5 yards from TXST25 to TXST30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+35
81.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 35 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
81.2%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad pass incomplete short right to Evans,Kylen thrown to EMU30 QB hurried by Evans,Carter PENALTY EMU Face Mask (Miles,Sterling) 15 yards from EMU35 to EMU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
81.2%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
81.2%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMU 16Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
81.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 16 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:2419% → 20%
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.3%
(13:19) Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete short right to McMillan,Dontae thrown to EMU37 QB hurried by Johnson,Chantz PENALTY TXST Holding (Crosby,Bobby) 10 yards from EMU25 to EMU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
81.2%
Dontae McMillan run for 13 yds to the EMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
81.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+35
81.0%
Dontae McMillan run for 35 yds to the TXST 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
80.8%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
80.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joshua Long for 10 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
80.6%
Tavierre Dunlap run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 2Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
80.5%
Dontae McMillan run for no gain to the TXST 2Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
80.7%
PENALTY EMU False Start 5 yards from TXST02 to TXST07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.6%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Joshua LongSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
80.1%
Rudy Kessinger 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5880% → 82%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
79.9%
Greg Burrell run for 13 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
80.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Greg Burrell for 21 yds to the EMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
80.4%
Greg Burrell run for 5 yds to the EMU 36Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+21
80.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 21 yds to the EMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.4%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
82.2%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 15 yds for a TD (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2119% → 19%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
81.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 28 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
80.7%
Dontae McMillan run for 9 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 1
OPP 38
0
80.5%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 19
OWN 44
+5
81.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Devereaux for 5 yds to the EMU 49Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
81.4%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:1282% → 82%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.8%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
81.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 17 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.0%
Brad Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+8
81.9%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 8 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
82.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
50
-9
82.4%
Brad Jackson sacked by Messiah Blair for a loss of 9 yards to the TXST 41 Brad Jackson fumbled, recovered by EMU Cameron Schultz , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 19
OWN 41
0
82.1%
Brad Jackson run for no gain to the TXST 41Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+12
81.8%
Greg Burrell run for 12 yds to the EMU 47Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
81.5%
David Nunez punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:1818% → 25%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
81.7%
Dontae McMillan run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 17Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
81.8%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr.Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+23
82.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 23 yds to the EMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
80.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 8 yds to the EMU 48Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+19
80.3%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 19 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
79.9%
Ben Prosper run for no gain to the TXST 33Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+24
79.9%
Joey Mattord run for 24 yds to the TXST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
79.8%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete short left to Lockett,Terry thrown to TXST00 PENALTY TXST Pass Interference (Rios,Jaden) 7 yards from TXST09 to TXST02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.4%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:4378% → 80%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.1%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Blake Smith for 9 yds to the TXST 34Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
78.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
78.3%
Brad Jackson run for 15 yds to the EMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
79.1%
Brad Jackson run for 8 yds to the EMU 41Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+2
79.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the EMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.1%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Beau SparksSimilar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
78.9%
Greg Burrell run for 6 yds to the EMU 33Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+20
78.6%
Greg Burrell run for 20 yds to the EMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
79.0%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
79.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 6 yds to the EMU 7Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
78.4%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Kylen EvansSimilar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
80.0%
Tyler Robles 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:2520% → 20%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 3 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
79.6%
Jr. James Jointer run for 3 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.8%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Illegal Formation (Joshua Scott) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
80.5%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 62 yds , Beau Sparks returns for 1 yd to the TXST 8Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
80.5%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 62 yds , Beau Sparks returns for 1 yd to the TXST 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:4983% → 90%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+57
82.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 57 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
83.9%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Burrell,Greg rush left for 5 yards gain to the EMU30 (Patierno,Marco), out of bounds PENALTY TXST Holding (Strawn,Dorion) 10 yards from EMU35 to EMU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+4
83.5%
Brad Jackson run for 4 yds to the EMU 41Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+6
83.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 6 yds to the EMU 35Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+13
83.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the EMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
87.7%
Lincoln Pare 22 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
Q2 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
90.0%
PENALTY TXST False Start (Schultz,Cameron) 5 yards from EMU03 to EMU08. NO PLAY. (Tyler Robles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
17 plays · 65 yds · 3:3814% → 15%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.7%
Ben Prosper run for 4 yds to the EMU 39Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
85.6%
Dontae McMillan run for 5 yds to the EMU 44Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-10
85.5%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun McMillan,Dontae rush right for 13 yards gain to the TXST43 (Crosby,Bobby), out of bounds PENALTY EMU Holding (Harris,Nick) 10 yards from EMU44 to EMU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+15
87.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 15 yds to the EMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
85.8%
Tavierre Dunlap run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 48Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+7
85.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Porter Rooks for 7 yds to the TXST 45Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
85.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 7 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
84.8%
PENALTY TXST Offside (Washington,Kamren) 5 yards from TXST38 to TXST33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+5
84.1%
(00:49) PENALTY TXST Offside (Alexander,Kalil) 5 yards from TXST33 to TXST28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
84.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the TXST 25Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+5
83.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joshua Long for 5 yds to the TXST 20Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 2
OPP 20
0
84.5%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+4
86.5%
Noah Kim run for 4 yds to the TXST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
85.5%
Joshua Long 16 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Rudy Kessinger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
89.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TXST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:4112% → 11%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Joshua LongSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.2%
Dontae McMillan run for 11 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.7%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
87.8%
Tavierre Dunlap run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 35Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
88.5%
PENALTY EMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from EMU35 to EMU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+7
88.7%
Dontae McMillan run for 7 yds to the EMU 37Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
88.8%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4990% → 90%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for no gain to the TXST 20Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
90.1%
Greg Burrell run for 8 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
89.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TXST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+33
90.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 33 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
90.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the EMU 35Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+16
91.0%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 16 yds to the EMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
91.8%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Greg Burrell for 10 yds to the EMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
90.3%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Beau Sparks for 4 yds to the EMU 5Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
90.5%
Brad Jackson run for 2 yds to the EMU 3Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.9%
Beau Sparks 3 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3112% → 11%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Joshua LongSimilar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
88.9%
Noah Kim sacked by Terrence Cooks Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 25Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:1590% → 99%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
89.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 11 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
91.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the TXST 46Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
91.1%
Brad Jackson run for 11 yds to the EMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
92.6%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Blake Smith for 9 yds to the EMU 34Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
92.6%
Brad Jackson run for 5 yds to the EMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
94.4%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 30Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+20
94.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 20 yds to the EMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
94.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the EMU 5Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.8%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Pare,Lincoln rush left for 3 yards gain to the EMU02 (Tayou,Warren-Stevens) PENALTY TXST Holding offsetting EMU Face Mask offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.0%
Beau Sparks 5 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:222% → 2%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joey Mattord for 2 yds to the EMU 22Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
98.3%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr.Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
98.4%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Dontae McMillanSimilar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+32
98.4%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMU 35 , Beau Sparks returns for 32 yds to the EMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1099% → 100%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
99.2%
Jaylen Jenkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMU 36Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
99.3%
Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Mavin AndersonSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+8
99.2%
Brad Jackson run for 8 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+13
99.5%
Brad Jackson pass complete to Kylen Evans for 13 yds to the EMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Greg Burrell 15 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 5:340% → 1%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
99.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tanner Lemaster for 33 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.8%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 7 yds to the TXST 35Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
99.8%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the TXST 33Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
99.8%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 1 yd to the TXST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 3 yds to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+9
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tanner Lemaster for 9 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
99.9%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete short to Rooks,Porter thrown to TXST01 PENALTY EMU Holding (Indestad,Mack) 10 yards from TXST20 to TXST30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
Dontae McMillan run for 1 yd to the TXST 29Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+9
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 9 yds to the TXST 20Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.9%
Noah Kim run for 1 yd to the TXST 19Similar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
99.3%
Rudy Kessinger 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Keldric Luster pass incomplete to L.J. Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.8%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 4 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
99.8%
Keldric Luster run for 10 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.8%
Keldric Luster run for 2 yds to the TXST 42Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Jaylen Jenkins 58 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:180% → 1%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Antonio FloydSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Ben Prosper for 9 yds to the EMU 34Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Jr. James Jointer run for 1 yd to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Nick DevereauxSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Joey Mattord run for 7 yds to the EMU 42Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the EMU 44Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Joey Mattord run for 1 yd to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Ben Prosper for 22 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
99.9%
Joey Mattord run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 34Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joey Mattord for 3 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+12
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Harris for 12 yds to the TXST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jamarien Wheeler for 12 yds to the TXST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.5%
Joey Mattord 7 Yd Run (Rudy Kessinger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 6 yds to the TXST 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.9%
Jaylen Jenkins run for 7 yds to the TXST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:33
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q2 3:56
Lincoln Pare 22 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)
+4.3
TD · Q3 0:19
Beau Sparks 5 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com