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MORG

Morgan State 21 at South Alabama 38

USA
2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreMORG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:12 · Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 55 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+36.3Home team on offense+5.4Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:17: PJ Martin run for 3 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK) — USA win probability +4.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:13: Jason Collins Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Sahr Gbundema KICK) — MORG win probability +6.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:27: Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK) — USA win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:47: Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 31 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK) — USA win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:24: Randall Nauden run for 7 yds for a TD Morgan State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Daniel Casillas Jr.) to the USA 0 (Sahr Gbundema KICK) — MORG win probability +1.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MORG made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 5:48USA 4th & 1 at MORG 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:46MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:39USA 4th & 3 at MORG 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:54USA 4th & 5 at MORG 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:26MORG 4th & 10 at MORG 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:12USA 4th & 23 at USA 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:34MORG 4th & 2 at MORG 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:54MORG 4th & 2 at MORG 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:50USA 4th & 2 at USA 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:15MORG 4th & 5 at MORG 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:31USA 4th & 14 at MORG 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    90.6%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:58MORG 4th & 20 at MORG 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:56MORG 4th & 1 at USA 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MORG made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:36MORG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:01USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:17USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:13MORG Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:27USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:47USA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:24MORG Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MORGDrive 1TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:583% → 5%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
96.7%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Matt Lowe for 16 yds to the MORG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
96.6%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 11 yds to the MORG 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
96.5%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MORG 46Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
96.4%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Ferdinand NyivihSimilar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+24
96.3%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Ferdinand Nyivih for 24 yds to the USA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
96.2%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 1 yd to the USA 29Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
96.1%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 1 yd to the USA 28Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+11
96.0%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Malique Leatherbury for 11 yds to the USA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
95.8%
Kobe Muasau run for 8 yds to the USA 9Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-10
95.7%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Collins Jr.,Jason rush right for 9 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 09:30 PENALTY MSU Holding (Thomas,Tyler) 10 yards from USA09 to USA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+11
95.6%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 11 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-5
95.5%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Leatherbury,Malique) 5 yards from USA08 to USA13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+11
95.5%
(08:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Muasau,Kobe pass incomplete short left to Nyivih,Ferdinand thrown to USA00 PENALTY USA Pass Interference (McKenzie,Darius) 11 yard from USA13 to USA02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.0%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Sahr Gbundema KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2895% → 95%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+34
94.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 34 yds to the MORG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
95.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 12 yds to the MORG 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
95.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the MORG 26Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
94.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the MORG 23Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
94.5%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the MORG 19Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+7
94.3%
PJ Martin run for 7 yds to the MORG 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
94.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the MORG 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd for a TD Morgan State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Arturo Mattocks) declined (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:595% → 6%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.6%
Randall Nauden run for 4 yds to the MORG 29Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
94.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the MORG 25Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Matt Lowe for no gain to the MORG 25Similar
Q1 2:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Shane Messenger punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Devin Voisin at the USA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4494% → 94%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.2%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for no gain to the USA 36Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+32
94.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Miller McCrumby for 32 yds to the MORG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
94.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the MORG 25Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
94.2%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Rod GibbsSimilar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
94.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for no gain to the MORG 25Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
93.7%
Bishop Davenport run for no gain to the MORG 25 Bishop Davenport fumbled, recovered by MORG Chance PickardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:127% → 7%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.3%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun Muasau,Kobe pass incomplete deep right to Nyivih,Ferdinand thrown to MSU47 PENALTY MSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Thomas,Tyler) 5 yards from MSU25 to MSU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Jahlun FludSimilar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-2
93.3%
Kobe Muasau sacked by E'Mauri Smiley for a loss of 2 yards to the MORG 18 Kobe Muasau fumbled, recovered by USA RJ Moss Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0694% → 93%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
93.9%
PJ Martin run for 6 yds to the MORG 12Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
93.9%
Morgan State Penalty, Targeting (6 Yards) to the MORG 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
93.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Martin,PJ rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU01 (Hunter,Erick) PENALTY USA Holding (Voisin,Devin) 10 yards from MSU06 to MSU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+5
93.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the MORG 11Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
93.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the MORG 6Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
93.2%
Bishop Davenport run for 1 yd to the MORG 5Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
93.1%
Hamilton DiBoyan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 7INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 14:126% → 8%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
94.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 16 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
94.0%
PENALTY MSU False Start (Nyivih,Ferdinand) 5 yards from USA24 to USA29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
94.2%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Joseph Kennerly Jr.Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 15
OPP 29
0
94.0%
Kobe Muasau pass intercepted Wesley Miller return for no gain to the USA 10Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.1%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Ferdinand NyivihSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
92.3%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Justin Perry for 25 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:226% → 6%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 7 yds to the MORG 32Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
94.1%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 34Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
93.9%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Malique Leatherbury for 4 yds to the MORG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
93.8%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 4 yds to the MORG 42Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-4
93.6%
Kobe Muasau sacked by Nathan Jennings for a loss of 4 yards to the MORG 38Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
93.9%
Morgan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Anthony Ngansi) to the MORG 38Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Shane Messenger punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Devin Voisin at the USA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · 19 yds · 12:1194% → 92%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
94.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 12Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+15
93.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 15 yds to the USA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
93.9%
PENALTY USA False Start (Wiggins,Amaury) 5 yards from USA27 to USA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+7
92.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the USA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:0794% → 93%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
93.5%
Keenan Phillips run for 6 yds to the USA 36Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
93.6%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 2 yds to the USA 34Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-12
93.3%
Bishop Davenport sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the USA 22Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 18
OWN 22
-5
92.8%
(07:27) Pulkkinen,Aleksi punt 53 yards to the MSU25 fair catch by Leatherbury,Malique at MSU25 PENALTY USA Illegal Formation 5 yards from USA22 to USA17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 23
OWN 17
0
92.8%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 11FUMBLE
12 plays · 17 yds · 5:117% → 8%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
93.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 6 yds to the MORG 34 Morgan State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joseph Kennerly Jr.) to the MORG 24Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+5
93.6%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Malique Leatherbury for 5 yds to the MORG 19Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+17
93.7%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Joseph Kennerly Jr. for 17 yds to the MORG 36Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+3
93.3%
Kobe Muasau run for 3 yds to the MORG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
92.7%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 41Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
92.7%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Malique LeatherburySimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+5
92.9%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Malique Leatherbury for 5 yds to the MORG 19Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+17
93.2%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Joseph Kennerly Jr. for 17 yds to the MORG 36Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 2
OWN 36
+3
92.8%
Kobe Muasau run for 3 yds to the MORG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
92.3%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
92.2%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Malique LeatherburySimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+4
92.5%
Kobe Muasau run for 4 yds to the MORG 45 Morgan State Penalty, Waller,Emmanuel at MSU45, End Of Play PENALTY Holding (Arturo Mattocks) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:5893% → 93%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
93.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 15 yds to the MORG 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
93.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 1 yd to the MORG 19Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
93.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 19 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
93.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the MORG 25Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+5
93.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds to the MORG 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3593% → 97%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
93.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 20 yds to the USA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
93.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the MORG 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
93.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 7 yds to the MORG 37Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
93.3%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 8 yds to the MORG 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
93.6%
PJ Martin run for 4 yds to the MORG 25Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+9
93.5%
PJ Martin run for 9 yds to the MORG 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
93.4%
PENALTY USA False Start (Hubbard,Ethan) 5 yards from MSU16 to MSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+11
93.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 11 yds to the MORG 10 Kentrel Bullock fumbled, recovered by USA Ethan HubbardSimilar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
93.3%
PJ Martin run for 2 yds to the MORG 8Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+5
92.9%
PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the MORG 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.9%
PJ Martin run for 3 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:564% → 11%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.0%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 10 yds to the MORG 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
95.8%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 37Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Randall Nauden run for no gain to the MORG 37Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+23
95.9%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Malique Leatherbury for 23 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
96.0%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Randall Nauden for 10 yds to the USA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
95.6%
Kobe Muasau run for 5 yds to the USA 25Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+11
95.6%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 11 yds to the USA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
95.6%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the USA 19Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 15
OPP 19
-5
96.1%
(04:50) PENALTY MSU False Start (Lowe,Matt) 5 yards from USA19 to USA24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+4
96.1%
South Alabama Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Darius McKenzie) to the USA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.3%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Sahr Gbundema KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:1392% → 92%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
91.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 16 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
92.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
92.5%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
92.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 49Similar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
91.5%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malique Leatherbury at the MORG 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:299% → 7%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
91.3%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 5 yds to the MORG 13Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
91.2%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Malique Leatherbury for no gain to the MORG 13Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
92.6%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Malique LeatherburySimilar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
92.9%
Shane Messenger punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Devin Voisin at the MORG 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2993% → 91%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
92.8%
Keenan Phillips run for 12 yds to the MORG 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incomplete to Anthony EagerSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
92.9%
Keenan Phillips run for 4 yds to the MORG 30Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+3
92.1%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Keenan Phillips for 3 yds to the MORG 33Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 9
OPP 33
-5
91.4%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU33 to MSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:31
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
91.0%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Malique Leatherbury at the MORG 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:258% → 7%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
91.7%
Kobe Muasau run for 8 yds to the MORG 16Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+2
91.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 2 yds to the MORG 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
91.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for 7 yds to the MORG 25 Morgan State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malachi Bryant) to the MORG 15Similar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 13
OWN 15
-5
91.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the MORG 10Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 18
OWN 10
0
91.5%
Kobe Muasau pass incomplete to Jason Collins Jr.Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 18
OWN 10
+3
92.0%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Alex Simmons for 3 yds to the MORG 13Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 15
OWN 13
-5
93.3%
PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Messenger,Shane) 5 yards from MSU13 to MSU08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 20
OWN 8
+46
93.4%
Shane Messenger punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MORG 4 , Devin Voisin returns for 46 yds to the MORG 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2593% → 98%
Q4 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
92.6%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the MORG 2Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:283% → 3%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.5%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MORG 23Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
97.6%
Kobe Muasau pass complete to Jason Collins Jr. for 11 yds to the MORG 34Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
97.4%
Jason Collins Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the MORG 31 Jason Collins Jr. fumbled, recovered by USA Christopher Wallace Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.4%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Devin Voisin for 31 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:181% → 3%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Randall Nauden run for no gain to the MORG 25Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+56
99.5%
Randall Nauden run for 56 yds to the USA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
99.3%
Randall Nauden run for 9 yds to the USA 10Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-1
99.3%
John Griffith run for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 11Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
99.4%
Randall Nauden run for 1 yd to the USA 10Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
99.4%
John Griffith pass complete to Randall Nauden for 3 yds to the USA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
John Griffith pass incomplete to Tyreek WoodSimilar
Q4 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.2%
John Griffith pass incomplete to Maxim CopelandSimilar
Q4 3:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.5%
Randall Nauden run for 7 yds for a TD Morgan State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Daniel Casillas Jr.) to the USA 0 (Sahr Gbundema KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0999% → 99%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
98.5%
Jared Hollins pass complete to Jeremy Scott for 8 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-5
98.5%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game (Hollins,Jared) 5 yards from USA20 to USA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
98.5%
Keenan Phillips run for 5 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+3
98.7%
Keenan Phillips run for 3 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
98.7%
Trae'von Dunbar run for 3 yds to the USA 26Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
98.7%
Trae'von Dunbar run for 4 yds to the USA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:13
Jason Collins Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Sahr Gbundema KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q4 9:27
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q3 10:17
PJ Martin run for 3 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com