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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreRICE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:04 · Alex Bacchetta punt for 42 yds , Robert Williams returns for 13 yds to the UL 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:38: Aaron Turner run for 17 yds for a TD (Enock Gota KICK) — RICE win probability +10.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:45: Walker Howard run for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UL win probability +21.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:20: Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the UL 33 — RICE win probability +13.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:51: Walker Howard pass complete to Shelton Sampson Jr. for 25 yds to the UL 30 for a 1ST down — UL win probability +12.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54: (00:57) Kneel down by Rice at UL 36 for loss of 1 yard. — RICE win probability +15.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:25RICE 4th & 25 at RICE 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snapGo for it22.8%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.1%average punt
- Q1 6:04UL 4th & 14 at RICE 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snapGo for it75.0%−0.318% to convertField goalTheir call75.3%56% to makePunt75.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:00RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.2%average punt
- Q2 0:26UL 4th & 6 at RICE 34, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snapGo for it49.0%−0.740% to convertField goalTheir call49.7%47% to makePunt47.9%−1.8average punt
- Q3 13:23UL 4th & 8 at UL 40, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snapGo for it48.8%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.7%average punt
- Q3 6:54RICE 4th & 7 at UL 41, up 8Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snapGo for it60.3%37% to convertField goal59.0%−1.332% to makePuntTheir call59.6%−0.7average punt
- Q4 14:45RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 33, up 2Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snapGo for it49.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:18UL 4th & 4 at UL 14, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snapGo for it51.5%−0.447% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.9%average punt
- Q4 11:04RICE 4th & 15 at RICE 39, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it44.1%−6.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.0%average punt
- Q4 10:00UL 4th & 14 at UL 20, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snapGo for it43.3%−4.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.5%average punt
- Q4 8:16RICE 4th & 13 at RICE 36, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snapGo for it45.4%−7.320% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%average punt
- Q4 6:30UL 4th & 2 at UL 34, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt44.8%−3.1average punt
- Q4 1:56RICE 4th & 1 at UL 1, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.9%59% to convertField goal58.5%−14.594% to makePunt26.2%−46.8average punt
- Q4 0:57UL 4th & 10 at UL 35, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.1%29% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.5%−3.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 0 of 1RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:34RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.8%97% to makeGo for two28.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:38RICE Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.6%97% to makeGo for two46.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:45UL Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick56.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call56.1%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRICEDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 8 yds · 4:1822% → 23%
Q1 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+7
78.2%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 7 yds to the RICE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
77.5%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Aaron Turner for 2 yds to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-13
77.3%
Chase Jenkins sacked by Terrence Williams for a loss of 13 yards to the RICE 26Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 20
OWN 26
-5
77.5%
PENALTY RIC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from RIC26 to RIC21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+5
77.5%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 40 yds , Robert Williams returns for 5 yds to the UL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2FG11 plays · 26 yds · 4:1478% → 77%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
77.6%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Perry,Zylan rush right for 7 yards gain to the RIC49 (Hook,Daveon) PENALTY UL Holding (Jackson,George) 10 yards from UL 44 to UL 34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+9
77.2%
Walker Howard pass complete to Shelton Sampson Jr. for 9 yds to the UL 43Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+19
77.0%
Walker Howard pass complete to Shelton Sampson Jr. for 19 yds to the RICE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-12
77.1%
Louisiana Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Walker Howard) to the RICE 38Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 20
OPP 36
+6
76.3%
Walker Howard pass complete to Shelton Sampson Jr. for 6 yds to the RICE 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3TD14 plays · 72 yds · 6:1523% → 30%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
75.5%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Tyson Thompson for 4 yds to the UL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:3172% → 72%
RICEDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5029% → 30%
Q2 11:00
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
70.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Robert Williams at the UL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6FUMBLE9 plays · 46 yds · 3:1571% → 70%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-15
70.5%
(10:58) No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Walker pass incomplete short right to Johnson,Jaydon thrown to UL 36 broken up by Williams,Marcus PENALTY RIC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Boenisch,Blake) 15 yards from UL 20 to UL 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-15
71.8%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Walker pass incomplete deep right to Sampson Jr. ,Shelton thrown to RIC25 PENALTY RIC Pass Interference (Crump,Khary) 15 yards from UL 39 to RIC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
71.9%
Walker Howard pass complete to Caden Jensen for 4 yds to the RICE 42Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+7
72.1%
Walker Howard pass complete to Jaydon Johnson for 7 yds to the RICE 27Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 2
OPP 27
-7
70.1%
Walker Howard sacked by Tony Anyanwu for a loss of 7 yards to the RICE 34 Walker Howard fumbled, recovered by RICE Blake Boenisch , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD8 plays · 66 yds · 3:5433% → 48%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
64.7%
Chase Jenkins pass complete to Drayden Dickmann for 23 yds to the UL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FG13 plays · 41 yds · 3:0354% → 55%
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
52.9%
Walker Howard pass complete to Bill Davis for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
53.7%
Walker Howard pass complete to Landon Strother for 4 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-5
53.3%
Walker Howard sacked by Michael Daley for a loss of 5 yards to the RICE 39Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 11
OPP 39
+5
50.8%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Walker pass incomplete short right to Johnson,Jaydon thrown to RIC21 PENALTY RIC Offside (Daley,Michael) 5 yards from RIC39 to RIC34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2852% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 50 yds · 6:1552% → 60%
ULDrive 12TD11 plays · 98 yds · 5:0442% → 63%
RICEDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5248% → 48%
Q4 14:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+5
52.2%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 56 yds , Robert Williams returns for 5 yds to the UL 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2056% → 52%
Q4 13:18
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
52.1%
Nathan Torney punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the RICE 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0655% → 50%
ULDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5853% → 49%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 11
OWN 9
0
52.6%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Howard,Walker pass incomplete deep left to Sampson Jr. ,Shelton thrown to UL 50 PENALTY RIC Pass Interference (Porter,Omari) RIC Offside declined 15 yards from UL 09 to UL 24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+3
49.3%
Nathan Torney punt for 44 yds , Quinton Jackson returns for 3 yds to the RICE 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3557% → 52%
ULDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3754% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19DOWNS11 plays · 30 yds · 4:2465% → 81%
Q4 3:28
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+14
25.5%
Daelen Alexander run for 8 yds to the UL 12 for a 1ST down Louisiana Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (Terrence Williams) to the UL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 30 yds · 0:5432% → 26%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+25
31.6%
Walker Howard pass complete to Shelton Sampson Jr. for 25 yds to the UL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-10
32.5%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun Beale,Daniel rush middle for 14 yards gain to the UL 44, End Of Play PENALTY UL Holding (Williams,Bryant) 10 yards from UL 30 to UL 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 20
OWN 20
-15
30.0%
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Beale,Daniel pass incomplete deep right to Williams,Robert thrown to UL 48 PENALTY RIC Pass Interference (Crump,Khary) 15 yards from UL 20 to UL 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:45
Walker Howard run for 25 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+21.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:54
(00:57) Kneel down by Rice at UL 36 for loss of 1 yard.
-15.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:20
Quinton Jackson run for 2 yds to the UL 33
-13