2025 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2025 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:54 · Henry Way punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nick DeGennaro at the JMU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:12: Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:36: Matthew Sluka pass complete to Landon Ellis for 14 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK) — JMU win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:53: Noah Kjar 14 Yd pass from Jackson Gilkey (Sloan Calder Kick) — WEB win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Sloan Calder kickoff for 62 yds , Wayne Knight return for 97 yds James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lacota Dippre) to the JMU 10 — WEB win probability +2.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:48: JC Evans 5 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick) — JMU win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:11WEB 4th & 5 at WEB 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q1 6:02WEB 4th & 1 at WEB 21, down 7Close callPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:35JMU 4th & 5 at WEB 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.2%42% to convertField goal93.1%−0.140% to makePunt93.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:46WEB 4th & 6 at JMU 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.4%40% to convertField goal6.1%−0.328% to makePunt6.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:15WEB 4th & 6 at WEB 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 1:44WEB 4th & 7 at WEB 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q3 12:03JMU 4th & 10 at JMU 31, up 14Close callWent for it · 93.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.4%−0.829% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.1%average punt
- Q3 11:03WEB 4th & 6 at JMU 34, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.9%40% to convertField goalTheir call6.7%−0.247% to makePunt6.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:21JMU 4th & 19 at WEB 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snapGo for it93.4%−1.410% to convertField goalTheir call94.8%77% to makePunt91.5%−3.3average punt
- Q3 4:59WEB 4th & 13 at WEB 1, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it4.3%−1.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q3 2:29JMU 4th & 5 at WEB 29, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.4%41% to convertField goalTheir call95.3%−0.158% to makePunt92.9%−2.5average punt
- Q3 0:53WEB 4th & 13 at WEB 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q4 13:10WEB 4th & 8 at WEB 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q4 12:08JMU 4th & 3 at WEB 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%52% to convertField goal95.5%−0.660% to makePunt92.7%−3.4average punt
- Q4 5:40JMU 4th & 2 at WEB 46, up 14Close callPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.2%57% to convertField goal96.3%−0.923% to makePuntTheir call96.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:54WEB 4th & 5 at WEB 37, down 14Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:25JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:46JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:12JMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:36JMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53WEB Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.5%97% to makeGo for two2.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWEBDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:364% → 4%
JMUDrive 2TD10 plays · 78 yds · 4:4696% → 96%
Q1 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+8
96.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 8 yds to the JMU 29Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+14
96.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Michael Scott for 14 yds to the WEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
96.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 23 yds to the WEB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
96.2%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Braeden Wisloski for 3 yds to the WEB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:184% → 5%
JMUDrive 4TD10 plays · 59 yds · 5:1095% → 96%
Q1 2:35
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+6
94.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Landon Ellis for 6 yds to the WEB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
94.8%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 7 yds to the WEB 24Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
95.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 20 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 5DOWNS9 plays · 38 yds · 3:145% → 5%
Q2 14:39
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+16
95.2%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Noah Bennee for 16 yds to the WEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6TD12 plays · 57 yds · 4:2595% → 98%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
95.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Logan Kyle for 8 yds to the WEB 20Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+8
95.2%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza pass incomplete deep right to Collins,Za'Ron thrown to WSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Daniels,Ishaan) 8 yards from WSU21 to WSU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 2:403% → 3%
Q2 6:21
2ND & 17
OWN 2
+15
97.3%
(06:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Gilkey,Jackson pass incomplete deep right to Kjar,Noah thrown to WSU30 PENALTY JMU Roughing The Passer (Taddeo,Andrew) 15 yards from WSU02 to WSU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+15
97.1%
(05:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Gilkey,Jackson pass incomplete deep right to Kjar,Noah thrown to WSU45 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Rodgers,Mekhi) 15 yards from WSU22 to WSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+11
97.2%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Marcus Chretien for 11 yds to the WEB 41Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
97.2%
Henry Way punt blocked by Chase Regan blocked by Chase Regan (04:20) Way,Henry punt 0 yards to the WSU41 blocked by Regan,Chase recovered by JMU Brown,Tyler at WSU31, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8TD4 plays · 31 yds · 3:1298% → 97%
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.1%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Landon Ellis for 14 yds for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
97.3%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Bird Butler for 11 yds to the WEB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10FUMBLE1 play · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
98.0%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Michael Scott for 3 yds Michael Scott fumbled, recovered by WEB Ishaan DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 11TD2 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3294% → 94%
JMUDrive 13DOWNS5 plays · 19 yds · 2:4495% → 95%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.0%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to George Pettaway for 3 yds to the JMU 28Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-9
95.0%
Alonza Barnett III sacked by Ishaan Daniels for a loss of 9 yards to the JMU 19Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 22
OWN 19
+12
94.7%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Wayne Knight for 12 yds to the JMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 14FG4 plays · 4 yds · 0:526% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15FG10 plays · 56 yds · 3:3595% → 95%
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
95.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Jaylan Sanchez for 5 yds to the WEB 4Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
95.5%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Barnett III,Alonza pass complete short right to Kyle,Logan caught at WSU00, for 0 yards to the WSU04 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (Kyle,Logan) 15 yards from WSU04 to WSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 16INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:066% → 6%
JMUDrive 17INT2 plays · 18 yds · 0:1996% → 96%
WEBDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:176% → 5%
Q3 4:59
4TH & 13
OWN 1
0
94.9%
Henry Way punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Wayne Knight at the WEB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19MISSED FG7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2696% → 96%
Q3 4:02
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+13
95.4%
Alonza Barnett III pass complete to Michael Scott for 13 yds to the WEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
96.0%
Morgan Suarez 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kevin Enriquez (02:30) Suarez,Morgan field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD blocked by Enriquez,Kevin (H: Rea,Patrick, LS: Kennard,Josiah), clock 02:29 recovered by JMU Gobaira,Aiden at WSU32, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:256% → 5%
Q3 1:33
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+4
94.6%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Ammon Munyer for 4 yds to the WEB 34Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-5
94.3%
PENALTY WSU False Start (Casto,Cole) 5 yards from WSU34 to WSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:53
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+3
94.8%
Henry Way punt for 41 yds , Wayne Knight returns for 3 yds to the JMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21TD4 plays · 67 yds · 0:5796% → 96%
WEBDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:145% → 5%
Q4 13:10
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+16
94.8%
Henry Way punt blocked by Xavier Holmes, punt out-of-bounds at the WEB 35 blocked by Xavier HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 23DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5797% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 24INT10 plays · 31 yds · 4:066% → 6%
Q4 11:28
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+11
94.6%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Marcus Chretien for 11 yds to the WEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
93.6%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Devin Ford for 10 yds to the JMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
93.2%
Jackson Gilkey pass complete to Davion Godley for 6 yds to the JMU 41Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 16
OPP 41
-32
94.5%
Jackson Gilkey pass intercepted Jacob Thomas return for 32 yds to the JMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0297% → 98%
Q4 5:40
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
98.2%
Patrick Rea punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bird Butler at the WEB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 26INT3 plays · 5 yds · 0:395% → 5%
JMUDrive 27TD1 play · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 28PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:435% → 5%
Q4 1:54
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
95.5%
Henry Way punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nick DeGennaro at the JMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 29END OF GAME4 plays · 27 yds · 1:4899% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:48
JC Evans 5 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
+3.4
TD · Q2 7:12
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Suarez KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 0:38
Sloan Calder kickoff for 62 yds , Wayne Knight return for 97 yds James Madison Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lacota Dippre) to the JMU 10
-2.5